This Thursday the No. 21 ranked Colorado Buffaloes will play host to the UCLA Bruins. Kickoff for this Week 10 contest is set for 9:00 EST at Folsom Field. The game will be televised on FOX Sports 1. Oddsmakers have the Buffaloes as a 11.5-point favorite with the total at 57.5 points.

Colorado vs Buffalo Vegas Betting Preview

The Bruins (3-5, 1-4 Pac-12) return from their bye week looking to snap a 3-game losing streak. Last time out UCLA lost 45-52 at home to Utah as a 7-point favorite. The Bruins are now just 2-6 ATS on the season.

The Buffaloes (6-2, 4-1 Pac-12) also come in off a bye. The Buffaloes will be looking to build on a 10-5 win at Stanford as a 1-point dog. Colorado continues to torment the books, as they are a perfect 8-0 against the number in 2016.

UCLA has won each of the last 5 meetings in the series, but the last 2 have been really close. The Bruins needed overtime to escape with a 40-37 win at Colorado in 2014 as a 14-point favorite. Last year they squeaked out a 35-31 home win as a 22.5-point favorite.

Free Pick & Spread Predictions: UCLA +11.5

I just think we are seeing a big overreaction here with this line. Yes, UCLA is without starting quarterback Josh Rosen. That’s old news, as Rosen hasn’t played in the last two games. Not only is his injury playing a part in this line, but the fact that Colorado hasn’t lost against the spread. There’s no doubt this line is inflated in my mind, yet the public is going to think it’s a good number.

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The Bruins aren’t as good without Rosen, but are still capable of hanging in there with Colorado. Backup quarterback Mike Fafaul threw for 258 and 3 scores in his first start at Washington State. He followed that up with 400 yards and 5 touchdowns against Utah. The problem for Fafaul is he’s made some big mistakes. He’s got 8 interceptions since taking over for Rosen.

The key here is that he should be more comfortable in the offense coming out of the bye week. If he takes care of the ball, UCLA is not only capable of keeping it close, but winning this game outright.

I know the UCLA defense was awful in their last game. Giving up 52 points and 539 yards of offense to Utah at home. Five turnovers by the offense didn’t help matters. That’s the only time this season they have allowed more than 31 points. I look for the defense to come out with a chip on their shoulder after that performance.

You also have to keep in mind all the pressure is on Colorado in this game. UCLA has nothing to lose with a record of just 3-5. They also have Oregon State on deck, so nothing to look ahead to. Playing in a prime time weekday game should bring out the best in the Bruins. Especially against a ranked opponent.

While Mora hasn’t got the Bruins to play up to their potential since taking over in Los Angeles. He’s got a great track record against quality teams against the spread. UCLA is 12-4 ATS versus teams that have won between 60% to 75% of their games under Mora. Keep in mind, most of those came with the Bruins being the favorite.