This Saturday the South Florida Bulls will host the Connecticut Huskies in AAC action. Kickoff for this Week 7 matchup is set for 8:00 EST at Raymond James Stadium. The game will be televised on the CBS Sports Network. Oddsmakers have USF listed as a 19.5-point favorite with the total at 52.5 points.

USF vs UConn Vegas Point Spread Preview

The Huskies (3-3) come into this game off a 20-9 home win over Cincinnati as a 3-point dog. A great rebound from their ugly 14-42 loss at Houston in their previous game.

The Bulls (5-1) enter off a 38-22 win at home over East Carolina. USF backers had to sweat out the victory, as they barely covered as 15.5-point favorites. All 5 wins for the Bulls have come by at least 16 points.

While South Florida has won 4 straight in the series, the Huskies have been right there in all 4 games. Last year’s 20-28 home loss was the largest margin of victory for the Bulls in the 4-game winning streak.

Free Pick & Betting Predictions: South Florida -19.5

I think you have to roll the dice on the Bulls in this one. Connecticut just doesn’t have the offensive fire power to keep this game close. The Huskies highest scoring output this season is 24 points. South Florida on the other hand has scored 35 or more in every game, scoring 40+ on four occasions.

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I know the Huskies just held Connecticut to 9-points, but that was at home. The week prior they lost 14-42 at Houston. While USF is as nationally recognized as the Cougars, I think they are just as good. Keep in mind that Houston final could have been a lot worse. The Huskies scored 42 points without scoring in the 1st or 4th quarters.

The one thing that has allowed Connecticut to be competitive is their defense. Which has been really good against the run. The Huskies rank 11th in the country, giving up just 98.8 ypg on the ground. However, they are vulnerable against teams that can spread them out and throw the ball. Houston’s Greg Ward was a ridiculous 32 of 38 for 389 yards against them and he didn’t play the whole game. We also saw UConn give up over 400 yards passing to Syracuse.

USF is known more for their running game, which ranks 12th at 260.5 ypg. However, they can also beat you through the air. Bulls quarterback Quinton Flowers has already thrown for 1,322 yards. He’s averaging 9.2 yards/attempt and has 11 TD’s to just 3 INT’s. Flowers and the passing game should exploit the Huskies defense. At the same time, I also think their running game does some damage. Last year they put up 275 yards on the ground in their game against UConn.

A key factor here is that it’s really hard for teams like the Huskies to bounce back in this spot. That being on the road off an upset home win over a conference rival. In fact, road teams off an upset home win against a conference opponent are just 50-93 (35%) ATS when facing a team off a win by 10 or more against a conference rival since 1992. These teams have lost on average by 20.3 ppg. The home team has also covered the spread by 7 or more here 46% of the time.