This Thursday the Texas State Bobcats will host the ULM Warhawks in Sun Belt play. Kickoff is set for 9:15 EST at Bobcat Stadium in San Marcos, TX and will be televised on ESPNU.
Oddsmakers opened up this game at ULM -3 and a total of 62.5. No movement on the line as of now, as the Warhawks are still laying a field goal on the road. The total has dropped some, as it’s down to an even 60 at most books.
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Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: UL-Monroe vs Texas State
ULM Warhawks (2-3, 1-0 Sun Belt)
The Warhawks come into this one off a 52-33 loss at home to Memphis. ULM failed to cover in the loss as a 15-point home dog, but it was as lopsided as the final score would indicate.
The Warhawks scored a TD with 6:31 left in the 4th quarter to pull within 39-33, two plays later they were down by 19, as Memphis had a 66-yard TD run on the first play of the next series and then the Warhawks threw a pick-six on the first play of the next series. ULM outgained Memphis 575 to 535.
That’s now 3 straight non-covers for the Warhawks since they nearly won outright in a 44-45 overtime loss at Florida State as a 23-point dog.
Texas State Bobcats (2-3, 1-0 Sun Belt)
The Bobcats enter off a 24-3 win and cover as a 2-point home favorite against Nicholls. Texas State pulled away in the 2nd half for the comfortable win, as they were tied 3-3 at the half with the Colonels.
That’s back-to-back wins for the Bobcats, who defeated Georgia State 37-34 the previous week to open up conference play. That cover against Nicholls was the first of the season for Texas State, as they had started out 0-2-2 ATS.
The Bobcats will try to do something they have never done since joining the Sun Belt in 2013. Win three straight regular-season games.
The Warhawks have won 3 straight in the series, but two of those were decided by less than a touchdown, including last year’s 20-14 home win as a 10.5-point favorite. Texas State has been the profitable side in the series, as they are 4-1 ATS over the last 5 meetings.
Free NCAA Football Pick & Betting Predictions: Texas State +3
My early lean here would be to take the 3-points with the home team. I don’t see a whole lot of difference between these two teams and certainly not enough to warrant the Warhawks being favored on the road. To me the books are playing the public, who wants nothing to do with the Bobcats and really enticing them to only lay a field goal with ULM.
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A lot of people are going to point to the Warhawks three losses coming against Florida State, Iowa State and Memphis, but Texas State’s only three losses are against Texas A&M, Wyoming and SMU.
Another key factor to me is rest. While ULM was in action this past Saturday, the Bobcats had a bye in Week 6. Warhawks will be playing on just 4-days of rest, while Texas State will have had 11 days to prepare. You also have to take into consideration how big a game that Memphis matchup was. Not to mention how they lost that game, rallying to get within 6 only to give up two TD’s in less than 30-seconds of game time.
There’s no denying the Texas State football program has not been any good of late, but this probably the most experienced team they have had and easily the most talented since they went 7-5 back in 2014. The offense hasn’t been great in 2019, but it’s been better of late and should be able to exploit a bad Warhawks defense.
ULM is giving up 39.0 points/game against teams who only average 27.8 ppg. They are allowing and average of 256 ypg on the ground and 251 ypg thru the air. Even Grambling, who they held to just 9 points, had over 400 yards of offense against them. Give me Texas State!