This Friday the No. 22 Boise State Broncos will host the UNLV Rebels. Kickoff is set for 9:00 EST at Albertsons Stadium and will be televised on ESPN2. Oddsmakers have the Broncos as a 28-point favorite with the total set at 66 points. Click here for more free Week 12 betting leans and game odds.
UNLV vs Boise State Vegas Betting Preview
The Rebels (4-6, 3-3 MWC) come in off a 69-66 3OT win at home against Wyoming. Covering the spread as a 7.5-point underdog. It would have been a heartbreaking loss had the Rebels not held on. UNLV allowed a 19-yard touchdown pass as time expired in regulation to send the game to overtime.
The Broncos (9-1, 5-1 MWC) enter off a 52-16 blowout win at Hawaii. Easily covering the number as a 23-point favorite. With that said, it was a rare cover for Boise State. The Broncos were just 1-7 ATS in their previous 8 games and are just 3-7 ATS on the season.
This series hasn’t exactly been competitive. Boise State has won each of the last 3 meetings by at least 25 points. That includes a 55-27 win at UNLV last year as a 21-point favorite.
Free Pick & Spread Predictions: UNLV +28
My early lean here would have to be on the Rebels. As bad as Boise State has been against the spread, this is still a huge public team. I think coming off that big win over Hawaii has allowed the books to inflate this number. Thus creating some value here with UNLV.
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The Rebels haven’t lost a game all season by more than 23-points. That’s worth noting, as they have played on the road against both UCLA and San Diego State. Keep in mind they were only a 27.5-point dog at UCLA and just a 16.5-point dog to the Aztecs.
I think people see Boise State at home and think they are going to dominate with that blue turf. While they are 64-4 SU at home since 2006, they are just 28-37-3 ATS during this stretch. A lot of those struggles have come since Chris Petersen left for Washington. The Broncos are a mere 6-12 ATS at home under Bryan Harsin. That includes a 0-5 ATS record at home this season.
I think the key here is that UNLV has the talent offensively to put up some points. The Rebels just put up 52 in regulation last week against a Wyoming team that held Boise State to just 28 points. They have the 14th ranked rushing attack in the country at 252.7 ypg. Given the Rebels rushed for 219 yards on UCLA and 245 against San Diego State, there’s every reason to believe they will have success against the Broncos.
Keep in mind this is not an elite Boise State defense. While they are only giving up 22.0 ppg, they are a mere 51st in yards allowed at 389.1 ypg. That’s a far cry from the 318 ypg they allowed a year ago. It’s also worth noting they have struggled against the run, as they rank 66th, allowing 165.5 ypg.
Another factor here that favors UNLV is Boise State doesn’t force a lot of turnovers. The Broncos 2 forced turnovers last week against Hawaii were the most they have had in a game all year. They only have 7 takeaways on the season.