The #21 overall Utah State Aggies (10-1) travel to Idaho this weekend for a Mountain West Conference showdown with the #23 overall Boise State Broncos (9-2). Kickoff is set for 10:15 PM EST at Albertsons Stadium and the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Taking a look at the Week 13 college football odds, Boise State opened as a 3-point home favorite earlier this week. That line has stayed exactly the same after early betting, as the Broncos are currently listed at -3. The total for the game is sitting at 68 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Boise State vs Utah State
Utah State won their tenth consecutive game last weekend in dramatic fashion, beating Colorado State 29-24 after the Rams had a game-winning touchdown taken off the board due to an illegal touching penalty. The Aggies certainly didn’t have their best showing, as they were favored by four touchdowns but only ended up winning by five points. QB Jordan Love was solid but unspectacular, throwing for 169 yards and a touchdown. Love has had a very good year, passing for 2,845 yards and 25 touchdowns. On the ground, the duo of Darwin Thompson and Gerold Bright have combined for 1,667 yards and 22 touchdowns. Utah State has another quality tandem of playmakers in the receiving game, as Ron’Quavion Tarver and Jalen Greene have racked up almost 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns. As a whole, the offense is currently scoring 49.3 points per game – the second highest average in the entire country.
The Aggies have been pretty good on defense for the most part this season, allowing opponents to score an average of 22.1 points per game (34th overall). They have been especially solid against the run, giving up just 140.0 yards per game on the ground (41st overall).
Boise State moved to 9-2 overall last weekend after dismantling New Mexico 45-14 on the road. The Broncos were fantastic on both sides of the ball, although the offense was certainly the main focus during post-game interviews after an impressive performance by WR Sean Modster. Modster racked up a season-high nine receptions for 129 yards and three touchdowns in the victory. Boise State also received a solid performance from RB Alexander Mattison on the ground, as he turned 20 carries into 145 yards and a touchdown. Mattison is really playing well through 11 games, already rushing for over 1,000 yards and adding 13 touchdowns. QB Brett Rypien has posted career-best numbers this season, throwing for 3,270 yards and 28 touchdowns. Overall, the offense is currenlty averaging 37.4 points per game on 465 yards of total offense. They have been especially good over their current six-game win streak, scoring 45+ points on three separate occasions.
The Broncos have looked pretty solid on the defensive side of the ball this year, limiting opponents to just 22.2 points per game (35th overall). They have been very tough against the run, giving up only 128.9 yards per game on the ground (28th overall).
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Utah State +3
This should be a very exciting game between two high-flying Mountain West offenses. I also think there should be some interesting matchups on the other side of the ball, as both schools have actually been well above average defensively as well. While some are dismissing the Aggies 10-1 record due to ease of schedule, it isn’t exactly like Boise State has had to play a bunch of tough games this year either. The biggest thing that stands out to me in this matchup is pretty simple : both sides have pretty much identical defensive statistics (allowing 22 points against per game) while Utah State is scoring almost 12 more points per game offensively.
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Boise State is only 6-15 ATS over their last 21 home games. The Aggies are a solid 5-2 ATS in their last seven conference games and 9-2 ATS over their last 11 games overall. It is also worth noting that the road team is 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these two rivals, so that appears to favor Utah State as well.
There is no getting around the fact that the Aggies are only 3-11-2 ATS over their last 16 games against Boise State. However, this really is one of the best Utah State teams in school history, as they have now scored at least 31 points in nine out of eleven games this year. They have the better record overall, are averaging more points per game by almost two touchdowns, and have been the better team defensively as well. I’m taking the free points and taking a stab with the road underdog – give me the Aggies.