The Minnesota Vikings (5-4-1) host the Green Bay Packers (4-5-1) on Sunday Night Football this week in a critical NFC North showdown. Kickoff is set for 8:30 PM EST on November 25th at U.S. Bank Stadium and the game will be broadcast on NBC.

Oddsmakers opened this game up with the Vikings listed as 4-point home favorites. That line has shifted by half a point after early betting, as Minnesota is currently available at -3.5. The total for this matchup is 47.5 points. Click here for a full look at the Week 12 NFL odds and for more links to our individual game previews.

Vikings vs Packers Vegas Odds & Game Preview

Green Bay has now lost three out of their last four games after falling 27-24 on the road against Seattle last weekend. The Packers need to turn things around in a hurry if they want to have any shot at reaching the postseason this season. QB Aaron Rodgers has certainly done his part, throwing for 3,073 yards and 19 touchdowns in just ten games. His favorite target remains WR Davante Adams, as Adams has racked up 953 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. RB Aaron Jones is finally getting the bulk of the carries on the ground, which was clearly long overdue. Jones has responded by scoring four touchdowns in his last two games while gaining almost 300 total yards in the process. As a whole, Green Bay is currently averaging 24.7 points per game (13th overall) on 398.8 yards of total offense.

The Packers have been pretty mediocre through their first ten games, as opponents are currently averaging 24.3 points per game (16th overall) on 349.1 yards of total offense. They have been quite good against the pass, holding teams to just 223.0 yards per game through the air (5th overall). However, they have had a much tougher time against the run, giving up 126.1 yards per game on the ground (26th overall).

Minnesota had a shot to move into first place in the division last weekend but couldn’t get the job done, falling 25-20 to Chicago to drop back to 5-4-1 overall. Although it was clearly a bitterly disappointing result for the Vikings, they now need to re-focus their attention on securing a wildcard spot with only six games remaining in the season. QB Kirk Cousins has played well through his first ten starts, racking up 2,947 yards and 19 touchdowns. He has certainly had a ton of help from WR Adam Thielen this year, as the 5th year pro has already crossed the 1,000 yard mark while finding the end zone seven times. RB Dalvin Cook and LaTavious Murray have split time as the lead back, although Cook will likely re-take his starting role after dealing with a lingering hamstring injury. Overall, Minnesota is averaging 24.1 points per game (18th overall) on 363.7 total yards of offense.

The Vikings have been pretty good on the other side of the ball so far this season, holding opponents to an average of 22.9 points per game (11th overall) on 320.8 yards of total offense. They have really been dominant on the ground, giving up just 94.8 rushing yards per game (5th overall).

Free NFL Betting Prediction: Minnesota -3.5

It appears as if the Packers are completely snake-bitten right now, as they simply can’t find a way to close out games or to show up consistently in the second half. Aaron Rodgers can’t do it alone, and while Davante Adams and Aaron Jones have played extremely well as of late, Green Bay has still lost three out of their last four. Minnesota showed some signs of life against Chicago last week and had several opportunities to win that game outright. A healthy Dalvin Cook will certainly help, as will their improved play on defense after some rocky outings in the middle of the season. 

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The Vikings are a solid 36-12-2 ATS over their last 54 home games. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games in the month of November and 47-23-1 ATS over their last 71 games overall. Green Bay  is a dreadful 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games. They are also just 2-7-1 ATS over their last ten games against an NFC opponent and 1-4 ATS in their last five against the NFC North.

It is also very important to note how well the Vikings have fared against the spread in this particular matchup as  of late, going 5-2 ATS over the last seven games against the Packers at U.S. Bank Stadium. The home team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings overall between these two rival. I think both of those trends will continue here in Week 13, so I’m laying the 3.5 points and taking Minnesota to cover at home.