This Saturday the Virginia Cavaliers will host the Duke Blue Devils. First place in the ACC Coastal will be up for grabs, as these two are tied on top the division at 2-1 with North Carolina. Kickoff is set for 3:30 EST at Scott Stadium and will be televised on the ACC Network.
Oddsmakers opened this game at Virginia -3.5 and that’s where the number sits today. The total opened at 47 and has dropped to 45 at most books.
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Duke vs Virginia Betting Preview & Vegas Game Odds
Duke Blue Devils (4-2, 3-2-1 ATS)
Duke comes into this one off a convincing 41-23 win at home over Georgia Tech. Neither side got any money, as the Blue Devils closed as a 18-point favorite. Those that backed Duke probably aren’t too happy with the result, as they had a 38-7 lead in the 2nd quarter and were outscored 16-3 the rest of the way.
It was a nice bounce back win for the Blue Devils, as they just had their 3-game winning streak snapped in a 33-30 loss at home to Pittsburgh. While Duke hasn’t covered in their last two, they are a solid 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
OVER has also been the play in Blue Devil games. Since going UNDER the total in the season opener versus Alabama, the OVER is a perfect 5-0.
Virginia Cavaliers (4-2 SU, 2-3-1 ATS)
The Cavaliers enter off a head-scratching 17-9 loss at Miami as a 3-point underdog. Virginia looked like the better team, they just couldn’t finish drives. The Cavaliers had to settle for 3 field goals (missed another). They also turned it over on Downs and fumbled inside the Hurricanes 30-yard line. They had a 326 to 265 edge in total yards and 21 first downs to Miam’s 14.
That one definitely stung a little, as they were coming off a bye and hoping to bounce back from that 35-20 defeat at Notre Dame.
Cavaliers have now failed to cover the spread in their last 4 games (0-3-1 ATS).
Virginia has won and covered 4 straight in the series. Last year they defeated Duke 28-14 as a 6.5-point road dog. All four wins during the win streak have come by at least 7-points.
UNDER has cashed in each of the last 3 meetings.
NCAA Football Free Pick & Betting Prediction: Virginia -3.5
My early lean here would be lean to lay the points with Virginia at home. I think this is the perfect time to buy low on the Cavaliers and sell high on the Blue Devils. I definitely feel like the number here is way too low given how I rank these two teams.
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I get that Duke is 4-2 and tied for the ACC Coastal lead, but I’m not really sure what they have done to make people think they are legit. They have wins over North Carolina A&T, Middle Tennessee, Va Tech and Georgia Tech. You can’t read anything into a FCS win, Middle Tennessee is not any good, Va Tech was a complete disaster before they made a QB change and Georgia Tech is by far the worst team in the ACC and maybe the worst Power 5 team in the country.
They got annihilated by Alabama, which was to be expected, but they also were outgained 512 to 204. As for the 33-30 loss at home to Pitt, that doesn’t look all that bad, but they trailed 26-3 in the 2nd half of that one.
Virginia went on the road and beat that same Panthers team 30-14 and also have a nice win at home over Florida State. Losing to Notre Dame by 15 and not covering is misleading, as they really beat themselves with 5 turnovers. They actually outgained the Irish 338 to 322 and led 17-14 at the half. As for the loss last week to Miami, they were without a doubt the better team, but you get that crazy stuff in weekday games where the better team doesn’t always win.
I look back at how much this Blue Devils offense struggled to move the ball against Alabama and I just can’t see how they are going to do enough offensively in this game to keep it close. Duke’s only game against a FBS opponent with more than 188 yards passing was vs Middle Tennessee and they only had 237 in that one. That’s a serious problem because Virginia ranks 11th in the country against the run, giving up just 90 yards/game (2.7 yards/carry).
Lastly, you got to factor in the history of this series. Virginia has won and covered 4 straight. All 4 wins have come by at least 7 points. I get the Blue Devils are good as a dog, but I don’t see much bit in the Blue Devils Saturday. Give me Virginia -3.5!