The Virginia Cavaliers (7-4) travel to Blacksburg on Friday to battle it out for the Commonwealth Cup against the Virginia Tech Hokies (4-6). Kickoff is set for 3:30 PM EST at Lane Stadium and the game will be broadcast on ABC.
Taking a look at the Week 13 college football odds, Virginia opened as a 4-point home favorite earlier this week. That line has shifted by half of a point after early betting, as the Cavaliers are currently listed at -3.5. The total for the game is sitting at 50.5 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Virginia Tech vs Virginia
Virginia dropped to 7-4 on the season overall last weekend after a tough 30-27 overtime lost against Georgaia Tech. The Cavaliers were up 21-16 heading into the 4th quarter but couldn’t find a way to close out the Yellow Jackets, giving up 11 points before losing by a field goal in OT. QB Bryce Perkins has really made huge strides this season, especially on the ground where he has racked up 730 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. Perkins has definitely been the biggest reason for Virginia’s resurgence running the football, as the Cavs ground attack has posted an average of almost 100 more yards per game (171.2 yards/game) since finishing dead last in the ACC last season (93.5 yards/game). As a whole, the offense is currently averaging 28.3 points per game (70th overall).
The Cavaliers have really looked quite strong defensively so far this season, holding opponents to an average of just 20.6 points per game (23rd overall). They have been exceptional against the pass through eleven games, allowing only 178.4 passing yards per game (15th overall).
Virginia Tech dropped to 4-6 overall last weekend after falling 38-14 at home to Miami. Although they only trailed 17-14 at halftime, the Hokies were badly outplayed on both sides of the ball in the second half. The Hurricanes scored 21 unanswered points in the 3rd quarter and never looked back, completely shutting out the Virginia Tech offense the rest of the game. The Hokies now face a must win game here in Week 13, as they could still potentially become bowl-eligible if they can get past Virginia this Friday. If they can take of business, a game against Marshall will occur on December 1st that will give them a chance to win that elusive sixth game of the year. Overall, the offense is currently averaging 28.2 points per game (72nd overall).
The Hokies biggest problem this season has been their poor play on defense, as opponents are currently averaging 31.7 points per game (90th overall). They have been especially bad against the run, giving up an alarming 208.2 yards per game on the ground (107th overall).
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: Virginia -3.5
I know, I know – Virginia Tech hasn’t lost to Virginia since 2003 and has a ridiculously good 19-1 record in Commonwealth Cup games since 1998. Still , the Hokies have now lost four straight games after a strong 4-2 start and basically need a miracle to qualify for a bowl game. It certainly doesn’t help that their opponents have been able to score at least 31 points in each of the four consecutive losses. Virginia Tech must win this game, but I’m not so sure that they will be able to pull off an upset against a tough Cavs team. Virginia has actually played quite well this year, and despite being just 1-2 in their last three games, they still should have no problem at all covering this small spread.
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The Cavaliers are a very solid 4-1 ATS over their last five conference games. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an against the spread win and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Virginia Tech is a brutal 0-6 ATS over their last six games overall. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last four home games and 0-5 ATS over their last five games against ACC opponents.
It’s pretty evident from the trends listed in the previous paragraph that the Hokies have not been playing well at all as of late. The fact that they haven’t been able to grind out a single cover over their last 4+ home AND conference games really makes picking against them in this matchup relatively easy and stress-free. I’m honestly a little bit shocked that this line has moved the other way, and will be jumping all over Virginia in this spot. Look for the Cavs to reclaim the Commonwealth Cup for the first time since 2003.