The #16 overall Wisconsin Badgers (6-2) host the #18 overall Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2) this weekend for a critical BIG 10 showdown from Madison. Kickoff is set for 4:00 PM EST on November 9th at Camp Randall Stadium and the game will be nationally televised on FOX.
Taking a look at the Week 11 college football odds, Wisconsin opened as a 8.5-point home favorite earlier this week. The spread has increased by a full point after early betting, as the Badgers are currently available at -9.5. The total for the game is sitting at 38.5 points.
Vegas Betting Preview & Game Odds: Wisconsin vs Iowa
Iowa won their second straight game back in Week 9, beating Northwestern 20-0 on the road to improve to 6-2 on the season overall before heading into a bye week. The Hawkeyes had a 10-0 lead at the half and cruised to victory from there, completely shutting out the Wildcats offense over the final two quarters. QB Nathan Stanley didn’t have to do much, going 12/26 for 179 passing yards and a touchdown. RB Tyler Goodson led the way on the ground, rushing for 58 yards on 11 carries. Tyrone Tracy Jr. was on the receiving end of the only passing touchdown of the game for the offense, hitting pay dirt on one of his two catches for 88 yards. As a whole, Iowa gained just over 300 total yards of offense and found the end zone twice against a tough Wildcats defense.
The Hawkeyes obviously had a fantastic outing on the other side of the ball against Northwestern, as the Wildcats barely gained over 200 total yards of offense and failed to score even a single point. Iowa was especially strong defending against the pass, recording one interception and giving up just 138 passing yards.
Wisconsin dropped their second consecutive game last weekend, falling 38-7 on the road against #3 overall Ohio State. The Badgers gave up ten unanswered points in the second quarter and never recovered, scoring just a single touchdown the entire game en route to an embarrassing conference loss. QB Jack Coan went 10/17 for 108 yards and a touchdown through the air while RB Jonathan Taylor averaged just 2.6 yards per carry over a team-high 20 rushing attempts. A.J. Taylor found the end zone but only managed to record two catches for 29 receiving yards. Overall, Wisconsin generated only 191 total yards of offense against a rock-solid Buckeyes defense.
The Badgers struggled defensively against a powerhouse Ohio State offense, surrendering well over 400 total yards of offense and five touchdowns. Wisconsin had no answer for Buckeyes RB J.K. Dobbins, as he torched the defense for 163 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries.
NCAA Football Betting Predictions & Free Pick: UNDER 38.5
Despite being at least being a little bit tempted to take the points and roll with the road underdog against the spread, I just don’t think I can get behind a Hawkeyes offense that has scored just 61 total points over their last four games combined. Wisconsin has also been excellent against the spread at home so far this season, going a perfect 5-0 ATS through their first five games at Camp Randall Stadium. With the spread looking pretty efficient overall, my favorite play from this critically important BIG 10 West showdown is probably the UNDER on 38.5 total points scored. Both defenses have been extremely solid this year, although Iowa in particular has been especially impressive. Not only did they hold Penn State and Michigan to just 27 combined points over a two week span, they also completely shutout both Northwestern and Rutgers as well.
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It is also important to note that the total has gone UNDER in six out of Iowa’s last seven games overall. The UNDER has also come through in their last three road games, which certainly bodes well for the chances of a slow-paced, low scoring game script on Saturday afternoon. On the other side, the UNDER has hit in each one of the last five games that Wisconsin has played overall. The same trend has been occurring when the Badgers take on BIG 10 opponents as well, as the total has gone UNDER in five out of their last six conference games. I’m going to stay away from both teams against the spread and roll with the UNDER on 38.5 total points scored in what should be a highly entertaining, defense-first battle here in Week 11.