Jimmy Boyd in A ranking tells you the Thunder are better than the Spurs. A rating tells you by how much, in points, which is the only unit a sportsbook actually deals in. That gap matters because you can’t bet an opinion, you can bet a number, and this page exists to hand you the number the market has already built.
For Week 1, the fit runs through 18 posted lines with home court worth 2.6 points. Oklahoma City Thunder sits on top at +9.1. Every team below it is measured the same way, against the same average, so you can subtract any two ratings, add home court, and get a spread before the books post one.
NBA Power Ratings: Week 1
| Team | Rating | This week | Since preseason | Results | Market − results | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | +9.1 | – | -0.4 | – | – | 0-0 |
| San Antonio Spurs | +8.2 | – | +0.1 | – | – | 0-0 |
| New York Knicks | +5.2 | – | +0.2 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Boston Celtics | +4.5 | – | even | – | – | 0-0 |
| Philadelphia 76ers | +3.9 | – | -0.2 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Detroit Pistons | +3.8 | – | +0.2 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Denver Nuggets | +3.4 | – | +0.2 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | +3 | – | -0.2 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Houston Rockets | +3 | – | -0.2 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | +2.6 | – | -0.2 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Miami Heat | +2.1 | – | +0.2 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Toronto Raptors | +2.1 | – | -0.3 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | +1.6 | – | -0.3 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Indiana Pacers | +1.1 | – | +0.1 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Atlanta Hawks | +1 | – | even | – | – | 0-0 |
| Orlando Magic | +1 | – | even | – | – | 0-0 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | +0.3 | – | +0.2 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Phoenix Suns | -0.6 | – | -0.2 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Charlotte Hornets | -1 | – | -0.3 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Golden State Warriors | -1.4 | – | +0.3 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Utah Jazz | -1.4 | – | +0.3 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Washington Wizards | -3 | – | even | – | – | 0-0 |
| Dallas Mavericks | -3.1 | – | +0.3 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Chicago Bulls | -5 | – | +0.3 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Memphis Grizzlies | -5.5 | – | -0.3 | – | – | 0-0 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | -5.7 | – | -0.1 | – | – | 0-0 |
| LA Clippers | -5.9 | – | -0.3 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | -7 | – | even | – | – | 0-0 |
| Brooklyn Nets | -7.2 | – | +0.3 | – | – | 0-0 |
| Sacramento Kings | -9 | – | +0.3 | – | – | 0-0 |
Rating is points against an average team. It starts from each team’s season win total and is fitted to every spread the books have posted since, the most recent counting most, so it is the market’s opinion written down. Results is the same fit on actual margins, once every team has played five games. A positive market-minus-results number means the market rates the team above what its scores say.
What moved this week
There are no weekly moves yet. The board right now is just each team’s season win total fitted against the 18 spreads posted so far, with home court worth 2.6. Actual week to week movement starts next week once there are two fits to stack against each other.
The two widest reads against the posted number both sit near the noise floor. Knicks minus 5.5 at home against Philadelphia compares to a ratings line of Knicks minus 3.5, a 2 point gap, total 231.5. Rockets minus 7.5 over Dallas compares to a ratings line of Rockets minus 9.3, a 1.8 point gap, total 227.5. Neither clears 2 points by much, and with no key numbers in this sport that’s about as thin as a gap gets. Before touching either side, check who’s resting and who played the night before, since the ratings have no way to see a back to back or a scratch.
No team near the top of the board shows a split between its market rating and its results rating this week, so there’s nothing to flag there yet.
Week 1: where the line left the market’s number
| Game | Ratings say | Line | Gap | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics at Detroit PistonsTuesday, Oct 20 · 3:00 PM ET | Pistons -1.7 | Pistons -2.5 | -0.8 | 221.5 |
| Philadelphia 76ers at New York KnicksTuesday, Oct 20 · 7:00 PM ET | Knicks -3.5 | Knicks -5.5 | -2 | 231.5 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio SpursTuesday, Oct 20 · 9:30 PM ET | Spurs -1.3 | Spurs -2.5 | -1.2 | 230.5 |
| Atlanta Hawks at Orlando MagicWednesday, Oct 21 · 7:00 PM ET | Magic -2.6 | Magic -2.5 | +0.1 | 233.5 |
| Milwaukee Bucks at Washington WizardsWednesday, Oct 21 · 7:00 PM ET | Wizards -6.6 | Wizards -6.5 | +0.1 | 238.5 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami HeatWednesday, Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ET | Heat -1.3 | Heat -2.5 | -1.2 | 242.5 |
| Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn NetsWednesday, Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ET | Hornets -4.1 | Hornets -2.5 | -1.6 | 223.5 |
| Chicago Bulls at Toronto RaptorsWednesday, Oct 21 · 7:30 PM ET | Raptors -10.1 | Raptors -8.5 | +1.6 | 235.5 |
| Utah Jazz at Memphis GrizzliesWednesday, Oct 21 · 8:00 PM ET | Jazz -1 | Jazz -2.5 | +1.5 | 242.5 |
| Indiana Pacers at New Orleans PelicansWednesday, Oct 21 · 8:00 PM ET | Pacers -4.1 | Pacers -4.5 | +0.4 | 242.5 |
| Dallas Mavericks at Houston RocketsWednesday, Oct 21 · 8:30 PM ET | Rockets -9.3 | Rockets -7.5 | +1.8 | 227.5 |
| Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles LakersWednesday, Oct 21 · 10:00 PM ET | Lakers -6.1 | Lakers -4.5 | +1.6 | 235.5 |
| Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail BlazersWednesday, Oct 21 · 10:00 PM ET | Trail Blazers -3 | Trail Blazers -4.5 | -1.5 | 235.5 |
| Sacramento Kings at LA ClippersWednesday, Oct 21 · 10:30 PM ET | Clippers -6.1 | Clippers -4.5 | +1.6 | 230.5 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ersThursday, Oct 22 · 7:00 PM ET | 76ers -3.9 | 76ers -4.5 | -0.6 | 233.5 |
All 52 gamesFewer games
| Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City ThunderThursday, Oct 22 · 9:30 PM ET | Thunder -8.8 | Thunder -7.5 | +1.3 | 232.5 |
| New York Knicks at Boston CelticsFriday, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET | Celtics -2.1 | Celtics -2.5 | -0.4 | 223.5 |
| Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte HornetsFriday, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET | Hornets -0.8 | – | – | – |
| Dallas Mavericks at Indiana PacersFriday, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET | Pacers -7 | – | – | – |
| Minnesota Timberwolves at Orlando MagicFriday, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET | Magic -0.4 | – | – | – |
| Toronto Raptors at Washington WizardsFriday, Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET | Raptors -2.7 | – | – | – |
| Detroit Pistons at Miami HeatFriday, Oct 23 · 8:00 PM ET | Heat -0.8 | – | – | – |
| Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee BucksFriday, Oct 23 · 8:00 PM ET | Bucks -0.8 | – | – | – |
| Houston Rockets at San Antonio SpursFriday, Oct 23 · 9:30 PM ET | Spurs -7.5 | Spurs -7.5 | even | 225.5 |
| New Orleans Pelicans at Utah JazzFriday, Oct 23 · 9:30 PM ET | Jazz -6.6 | – | – | – |
| Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State WarriorsFriday, Oct 23 · 10:00 PM ET | Warriors -6.1 | – | – | – |
| LA Clippers at Los Angeles LakersFriday, Oct 23 · 10:00 PM ET | Lakers -10.1 | – | – | – |
| Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento KingsFriday, Oct 23 · 10:00 PM ET | Trail Blazers -6.7 | – | – | – |
| Miami Heat at Charlotte HornetsSaturday, Oct 24 · 6:00 PM ET | Heat -0.1 | – | – | – |
| Brooklyn Nets at Cleveland CavaliersSaturday, Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET | Cavaliers -12.8 | – | – | – |
| Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ersSaturday, Oct 24 · 7:30 PM ET | 76ers -13.7 | – | – | – |
| Houston Rockets at Atlanta HawksSaturday, Oct 24 · 8:00 PM ET | Hawks -0.4 | – | – | – |
| Washington Wizards at Chicago BullsSaturday, Oct 24 · 8:00 PM ET | Bulls -0.4 | – | – | – |
| San Antonio Spurs at Dallas MavericksSaturday, Oct 24 · 8:00 PM ET | Spurs -9 | – | – | – |
| New Orleans Pelicans at Denver NuggetsSaturday, Oct 24 · 9:00 PM ET | Nuggets -11.5 | – | – | – |
| Golden State Warriors at Phoenix SunsSaturday, Oct 24 · 10:00 PM ET | Suns -3.9 | – | – | – |
| Los Angeles Lakers at Utah JazzSunday, Oct 25 · 5:00 PM ET | Lakers -1 | – | – | – |
| Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn NetsSunday, Oct 25 · 6:00 PM ET | Pacers -5.9 | – | – | – |
| Orlando Magic at New York KnicksSunday, Oct 25 · 7:00 PM ET | Knicks -6.6 | – | – | – |
| Toronto Raptors at Minnesota TimberwolvesSunday, Oct 25 · 7:00 PM ET | Timberwolves -3.5 | – | – | – |
| LA Clippers at Oklahoma City ThunderSunday, Oct 25 · 7:00 PM ET | Thunder -17.7 | – | – | – |
| Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ersSunday, Oct 25 · 7:30 PM ET | 76ers -3 | – | – | – |
| Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento KingsSunday, Oct 25 · 9:00 PM ET | Grizzlies -1.4 | – | – | – |
| Washington Wizards at Charlotte HornetsMonday, Oct 26 · 7:00 PM ET | Hornets -4.8 | – | – | – |
| Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland CavaliersMonday, Oct 26 · 7:00 PM ET | Cavaliers -2.1 | – | – | – |
| Chicago Bulls at Boston CelticsMonday, Oct 26 · 7:30 PM ET | Celtics -12.4 | – | – | – |
| Dallas Mavericks at Miami HeatMonday, Oct 26 · 7:30 PM ET | Heat -7.9 | – | – | – |
| Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee BucksMonday, Oct 26 · 8:00 PM ET | Pacers -5.4 | – | – | – |
| Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City ThunderMonday, Oct 26 · 8:00 PM ET | Thunder -12.4 | – | – | – |
| Atlanta Hawks at Houston RocketsMonday, Oct 26 · 8:30 PM ET | Rockets -4.8 | – | – | – |
| Memphis Grizzlies at Utah JazzMonday, Oct 26 · 9:00 PM ET | Jazz -6.1 | – | – | – |
| Golden State Warriors at Denver NuggetsMonday, Oct 26 · 10:00 PM ET | Nuggets -7.5 | – | – | – |
Before Week 3 the ratings are mostly the preseason win totals, so a gap says a game’s line and the season numbers disagree; read it as a leaning. Lines post the day before, so later games show the ratings’ number alone. Lines as of October 12, 2026.
Why a Number Beats a List
Every site on the internet runs an NBA power rankings column. An editor watches the scores, reshuffles a 1-30 list, and calls it analysis. It tells you the Celtics moved up three spots. It does not tell you what that’s worth against the Celtics’ schedule, their number against the Pistons, or whether the line on Friday is fair.
A rating fixes that by putting a number on every team in points against a league-average opponent. Subtract one team’s rating from another’s, add home court, and you have a spread. That’s the whole model: rating minus rating plus home court. A ranking can’t do that math because a ranking has no units. Fourth place minus ninth place is nothing. A rating of plus-four minus a rating of minus-two is six points, and six points is something you can bet.
That’s the real difference. A rankings list is somebody’s opinion about order. A rating is the market’s opinion about distance, written down as one number per team. Once you have that number, you’re not reading commentary anymore. You’re pricing games the same way a book does, just without the vig attached yet.
From Two Ratings to a Line
The math behind every number on this page is simple on purpose: home team’s rating minus road team’s rating plus home court. Home court this season is measured at 2.6 points, not assumed, which matters because home court advantage in the NBA has drifted over the years and a fixed number gets stale.
So if a home team rates two points higher than its opponent, add 2.6 and you get the market’s expected spread. That’s the whole exercise. No adjustments for pace, no manual tweaks, just the two numbers and the court.
Where this differs from football is important. In the NFL a one-point move can jump a key number like three or seven and change how a game settles. Basketball has no such thing. Scores land all over the number line, so a one-point gap between the ratings and a posted line is mostly noise. Two or three points starts to mean something. A half point rarely does.
Where the Numbers Start and How They’re Built
Before opening night, a book has posted lines for maybe the first week of games. That’s not enough information to separate thirty teams, so every rating here starts somewhere else: the team’s season win total, the number books set before anyone has played a possession.
Win totals get converted to points using wins above or below the league average, scaled at 2.25 wins per point. That starting number is treated like roughly four posted lines, which means it carries real weight in October and fades fast once actual games start producing real lines.
From there, every posted spread gets folded in through a least-squares fit, the same method that extracts the market’s implied ratings from a stack of lines instead of guessing at them. Recent lines count more than old ones. Every line loses half its weight every four weeks, so a rating in January is the market’s current view, not a frozen snapshot from training camp. Home court comes out of that same fit rather than being bolted on as a league-average assumption, since the advantage itself isn’t constant from year to year.
What the Weekly Move Actually Tells You
The weekly move column answers one question: what did the market learn this week. A team that jumps the board didn’t necessarily win big, it got priced higher by the books across its lines, which is the same thing from a betting standpoint.
It says the market changed its mind, not that a reporter did.
The since-preseason column tells a longer story: how far a team has moved off the win total it carried into opening night. A team that’s climbed several points since October is a team the market has fully reassessed. One sitting near its preseason number hasn’t surprised anybody yet.
Lines move before the scoreboard does. A book adjusts a number the moment sharp money or new information hits it, often days before the result that would have justified the move shows up in a box score. That’s why the market rating leads and the results rating lags behind it.
The Market Against What’s Actually Happened
Once a team has played five games, a second number shows up next to the market rating: the results rating, built the same way but fit to actual final margins instead of posted lines, with any single game capped at 24 points so one blowout doesn’t hijack a team’s whole number.
The difference between the two is the interesting part. It shows you which teams the market is still pricing above what they’ve actually done on the floor, and which ones it’s still underpricing despite the results.
Which one to trust depends on why the gap exists. If it’s five games into a long season, lean toward the market. It’s seen more than five box scores can tell you. If the gap persists deep into the year, the results start to carry more weight because the sample has caught up to the opinion.
Reading the Slate and the Gaps Between Games
The slate lists every game on this week’s board with the spread the ratings produce, the actual posted line where one exists, and the gap between them. NBA books post lines the day before tipoff, so for games later in the week you’ll often see only the ratings’ number sitting there with no market line to compare it to yet.
Early in the season, treat these gaps as soft. Before about Week 3 the ratings are still leaning heavily on preseason win totals, so a two or three point gap might just mean the market has more recent information than the model has caught up to yet, not that there’s a mispriced game sitting in front of you.
This week Philadelphia 76ers at New York Knicks shows the widest gap on the board, 2 points between the ratings’ number and the posted line. A gap like that usually has a mundane explanation, somebody’s resting, it’s the second night of a back-to-back, a key piece is banged up and the line adjusted for it before the ratings could.
That’s the right way to use a gap. It’s a question, not an answer. Find out why the number moved before you decide the market missed something.
My Own Tuesday Routine With This Table
I open this page every Tuesday morning and start with the movers. That column tells me what the market learned over the weekend before I read a single recap.
From there I check the since-preseason column, because that’s where I find teams the market has fully turned on, up or down, since October. Then I go to market minus results, looking for teams the market is still carrying on reputation versus teams it still doesn’t trust despite winning.
During the week, once a line posts, I build my own number from the ratings and compare it. When the gap runs two points or more, I don’t bet it blind. I check who’s sitting, whether it’s a back-to-back, whether there’s an injury the line already priced in. Only after that do I decide if it’s value or just the market knowing something the ratings don’t yet.
None of this replaces knowing the injury report. The ratings don’t know who’s inactive tonight, they lean heavily on win totals early in the year, and a rating was never meant to predict a final score. It’s a starting point for a number, not a finished pick.
