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The MLB Comp play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates at 7:10 eastern. The Pirates fit a solid 81% MLB Database system that plays on road favorites off a road favored loss, scoring 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits vs an opponent off a home dog win scoring 4 or less runs on 5+ hits if both teams had 0 errors. The Pirates are averaging over 5 runs the past week and have played well winning 14 of 21 in July. Milwaukee has lost 11 of 14 as a home dog in this range and 31 of 48 vs winning teams. Chase Anderson and his 4.44 home Era is on the mound and he has a 5.89 era vs the Pirates. Tailion goes for Pittsburgh and he was solid in a 6 inning 1 run stint earlier in the season. He has a solid 2.50 road era and has won 5 of 7 this season. Look for the Pirates to win this one. On Saturday the headliner plays are a rare Triple perfect 6* and another MLB Undefeated totals system play. Last night card cashes 2 of 3. Jump on now and put this cutting edge data on your side. For the MLB free pick. Play on the Pirates. RV
St. Louis -109
The Cardinals open up at a PK price against the Marlins here, giving them some value on the money line. St. Louis throws Jamie Garcia, who has some solid career success against Miami. Garcia has gone 2-0 with an ERA of just 1.99 in 5 starts.
He's gone deep into each start against Miami and really had his secondary stuff working, not allowing this Marlins team to string together hits. Colin Rea goes for Miami, making his first start in a Marlins uniform.
He has dropped back to back starts and will certainly have some nerves here pitching for a new team.
Some trends to note. Cardinals are 4-1 in Garcias last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 5-2 in Garcias last 7 road starts.
The Cards have had success with Garcia on the road here. Look for them to swing early on Rea as they don't let him settle in here.
Back St. Louis.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Saturday 5* MLB FREE ML Play
10* MLB Free Pick (Rangers -116)
Texas is worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Royals. Kansas City is on a complete free-fall at the moment, as they have dropped 8 of their last 10. The Rangers on the other hand have won 2 straight and 5 of their last 7. Texas will send out Martin Perez, who is 6-1 with a 2.69 ERA in 10 home starts. The Royals will counter with Ian Kennedy, who is 3-6 with a 4.86 ERA in 12 road starts and has a 7.37 ERA in his last 3 outings overall. Give me the Rangers -116!
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Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Cincinnati Reds -113
The Cincinnati Reds are playing their best baseball of the season right now. They have gone 8-3 in their last 11 games overall. The San Diego Padres are going into the tank as they have been trading away a ton of players prior to the deadline and are just 3-8 in their last 11 contests.
Cincinnati has the clear edge on the mound in this one behind Anthony Desclafini, who is 6-0 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.247 WHIP in nine starts. One of those starts came against San Diego on June 26 as Desclafini pitched 8 shutout innings in a 3-0 victory.
Christian Friedrich hasn't fared well at all this season, going 4-6 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.595 WHIP in 13 starts, 2-2 with a 5.88 ERA and 1.846 WHIP in five home starts, and 0-2 with a 7.43 ERA and 1.950 WHIP in his last three outings. Friedrich has also posted an 8.79 ERA and 1.745 WHIP in three career starts against Cincinnati.
The Reds are 12-3 (+8.3 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. Cincinnati is 4-0 in Desclafini's last four starts. The Padres are 0-6 in Friedrich's last six starts vs. NL Central opponents. Bet the Reds Saturday.
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Reds RH Anthony DeSclafani (6-0, 3.09 ERA) vs. Padres LH Christian Friedrich (4-6, 5.00)
The Reds came out in took a 6-0 win in the opener of this series vs the Padres, and looks like a viable option on value line again this Saturday. The Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani is 6-0 on the season, along with a stable 3.09 ERA and won his fourth consecutive start in his last turn. On June 26th he owned the Padres batting order allowing just 5 hits in 8 innings of quality work. Considering the Padres starter Friedrich hasn’t completed six frames recently, it wont be a stretch to believe he could be hammered and exit early again. Friedrich is 0-4 over his last five starts with a 7.72 ERA.It must be noted that the Padres are 0-6 in their last 6 vs. National League Central and are 1-4 in Friedrichs last 5 starts.
Play on the Cincinnati Reds to win on the moneyline
07/30 06:05 PM MLB (927) BOSTON RED SOX VS (928) LOS ANGELES ANGELS.
Take: over the total.
Reason: Your free play for Saturday, July 30, 2016 is in the baseball contest between the Boston Red Sox and the Angels in Anaheim. Boston has the top offense in baseball in runs, on base percentage and slugging. The Over is 23-10-1 against a losing record, as well as 23-8 over versus the AL West. They are not a great road team because of suspect pitching and Drew Pomeranz has not been impressive with his new team, allowing 12 hits and 7 runs in 9 innings. Hector Santiago goes for LA with a 4.28 ERA, walking 51 in 115+ innings. He has a 5.82 ERA at home and the over is 9-4 when he starts. LA is home with an offense that is picking up and the Over is 18-7-2 in the Angels last 27 during game 3 of a series. Play the Red Sox/Angels Over the total.
Free Pick on Pirates -
I feel like this is more than a fair price to back the Pirates on the road against the Brewers. Pittsburgh will have a huge edge on the mound in this one with emerging youngster Jameson Taillon facing off against the struggling Chase Anderson of Milwaukee.
Taillon has a 3.00 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in his last 3 starts and that includes a strong outing against the Brewers, where he allowed just 1 run on 5 hits in 6 innings of work. As for Anderson, he's struggling just to last 5 innings. In fact, he hasn't pitched more than 5 innings in 7 straight starts. He's got a ugly 5.40 ERA and 1.453 WHIP in 19 starts and is really struggling with his command right now, walking 13 in his last 4 outings.
Milwaukee has won 3 of their last 4, but that's typically when it goes bad for the Brewers, as they are just 3-13 on the season after a 3-1 stretch. Milwaukee is also just 5-20 as a home dog of +125 to +150 over the last 2 seasons. Take Pittsburgh!
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Team: The Play is on UNDER 8 -110 @ 5 Dimes
Game Time: First pitch goes at 7:10 ET on Saturday July 30
Location: The game will be played at Citi Field (outdoor) in New York, New York
Play Rating: Ricky is recommending a 1 star Free play (small stakes).
Scheduled Starters: Colorado - Jorge DeLarosa (L) - Mets - Bartolo Colon (R)
Reason For Pick: The Rockies who have won 8 of their last 9 games send Jorge DeLarosa to the mound with a 6-7 record and a 5.70 ERA. He has been very consistent, allowing 3 runs or less in 9 of his last 10 games and in his last 2 starts, pitched 12.1 innings and gave up 3 earned runs and 12 hits. Part of that success has been on the road where in his last 5 road games has allowed 3 runs or less while his last 2 losses there the Rockies scored a grand total of 1 run. The Mets who have lost 4 of their last 5, have struggled to score runs of late. They've managed just one run in each of their last two games, and they rank dead last in the major leagues with .238 team batting average.
Dave's Saturday Free Play:
1* on Chicago White Sox +112
The Key: I like the price we are getting with the Chicago White Sox tonight as road dogs to the Minnesota Twins. The Sox will be hungry to end a 3-game losing streak and should do so with their advantage on the mound in this contest. Miguel Gonzalez is 2-5 with a 4.34 ERA in 15 starts, 0-2 with a 3.76 ERA in 9 road starts, and 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA in his last 3 starts. Tom Milone is 3-3 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in 10 starts this year. Milone has been blown up in his last 2 starts against the White Sox, giving up 12 runs, 9 earned, and 20 base runners in 7 innings. Look for Chicago to tee off on him again here Saturday. The Twins are 10-27 in their last 37 vs. AL Central teams and 8-25 in their last 33 vs. a team with a losing record. Take Chicago.
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Take Colorado (#909)
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The Rockies are playing their best baseball of the season right now. They’ve won eight of their last nine, the lone loss coming on an errant throw from reliever Jordan Lyles in extra innings last Monday Night. They’ve cashed as +165, +135, +140 and +165 underdogs over the past four days, with the markets sleeping on Colorado’s dramatically improved play of late. And they’re most assuredly ‘Live Dogs’ once again today as they look to take their third straight game at Citi Field against the slumping Mets.
This quote from Colorado manager Walt Weiss stands out as a ‘bet-on’ quote: "I think we've come out of the break pretty well. I've been telling the club all year that we're going to get better and better as the year goes on. That had not been our history over the past few years. We've kind of faded the deeper we got into the season. I feel like this is a different group and we're built to sustain success better than we have over the past few years."
The Rockies bullpen is no longer a gas can, because they’re finally rested following a string of five consecutive quality starts. They’re the single most profitable team in baseball to support with a sub .500 record, currently ranked #7 overall in profits and #2 in road profitability. And there’s no comparison between these two lineups. The Rockies rank #2 in the NL in runs scored this year. The Mets have scored 152 fewer runs, ranked #28 in MLB.
New York is slumping, just 6-11 in their last 17 games including a 1-7 mark in their last eight at home. The Mets lineup is ice cold – they haven’t scored more than five runs during this entire 17 game span; held to three runs or less 13 times during that stretch, including back-2-back one run efforts in the first two games of this series. Mets starter Bartolo Colon is pitching on only three days rest; most assuredly not a ‘bet-on’ hurler here. Ride the hot and fade the cold! Take the Rockies.
Rickenbach MLB Game #927 - 2nd of 2 FREE PICKS Saturday - Boston Red Sox Money Line -120 @ Los Angeles Angels @ 9:10 ET - With this line dropping down to a -120 after opening at a -145 I feel the small road favorite is absolutely worth a look in this game. Yesterday the Red Sox got the 6-2 win over the Angels as the BoSox handed LA their 5th loss in their last 8 games. As a home dog of anywhere up to +150 the Angels have gone 4-15 this season! The Red Sox will have Drew Pomeranz on the mound and he has a 2.32 ERA in his road starts this season. His counterpart tonight is Hector Santiago and the Angels southpaw has a 5.82 ERA in his home starts this season. Santiago has walked 7 in his last two starts and the powerful Red Sox lineup can make him pay for giving away free passes! Pomeranz had a tough outing in his debut with Boston (after coming over from San Diego) but he responded with a rock solid quality outing in his 2nd start and I expect more of the same here. The Angels have been held to 3 runs or less in 5 of their last 8 starts. The Red Sox have averaged 6.2 runs per game in their last 10 games. 2nd of 2 Free Picks that I am releasing on Saturday is the Boston Red Sox on the money line. Best of luck always, Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach
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