Best Free Sports Picks for Today from Top Handicappers

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: California +10.5

I successfully faded Miami last week with Virginia Tech +19.5 in a game the Hokies nearly won outright.  It was the Hurricanes' toughest test of the season to date.  I am going against them again here Saturday in what will now be their toughest game yet as they hit the road to face a very underrated Cal Bears team.

The Bears have a big rest and preparation advantage coming in off a bye week.  I imagine it was a very productive bye week considering they were coming off a tough 14-9 loss at Florida State in a game they had no business losing.  The Bears outgained the Seminoles 410 to 284, or by 126 total yards.

Cal's 21-14 win at Auburn looks very impressive and there was nothing fluky about that victory.  The Bears outgained the Tigers 332 to 286 for the game.  That's the only game Auburn has been outgained in this season as the Tigers let both Oklahoma and Arkansas off the hook with turnovers.  They should be 4-1, and if they were that win by Cal would be getting a lot more attention than it is.

Justin Wilcox is a great defensive coach and will use those two weeks to come up with the proper game plan to slow down Cam Ward and this Miami offense.  The Bears rank 12th in the country in scoring defense at 12.8 points per game, 23rd in total defense at 287.5 yards per game and 17th at 4.4 yards per play.  Wilcox is 40-25 ATS as an underdog as the head coach of the Bears.  Bet California Saturday.

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This is a FREE PLAY on the UNDER Alabama/Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS after last week's 30-27 OT loss at Missouri. It easily covered with the 17.5-point spread. Note that Despite last week's game going OVER the number, dating to late year Vandy has still seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

While the Tigers have scored plenty of points leading up to this point, they now face their stiffest defensive test so far this season in Alabama, which is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS following last week's 41-34 shootout over Georgia. Previous to that the Tide conceded just 26 points over three games.

Both teams will be looking to establish the run throughout. This SEC battle has "under" written all over it in my opinion.

Consider the UNDER in this one.

Good luck, NP

1* NCAAF - UCF/Florida FREE PICK on Florida +2.5

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Alabama/Vanderbilt OVER 55.5

The Key: The forecast looks perfect for a shootout this afternoon between Alabama and Vanderbilt with temperatures in the 80's and almost zero wind.  Vanderbilt has another poor defense this year, but their offense is vastly improved with Diego Pavia at quarterback.  They are 26th in the country in scoring offense at 37 PPG.  They are up against an Alabama offense that may be the best in school history.  The Crimson Tide rank 8th in scoring offense at 47 PPG and just hung 41 points on Georgia last week to prove what they are capable of.  The defense has taken a step back this season under Kalen DeBoer, who is an offensive guys taking over for the defensive-minded Nick Saban.  This total should be in the 60's.  Take the OVER.

**4X Top 10 NCAAF Handicapper!** Dave was the #4 NCAAF Capper in 2011, the #7 NCAAF Capper in 2009 and the #5 NCAAF Capper in 2008! He had his best season to date finishing as the #2 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2020! He is riding a 332-291 NCAAF Run over the past couple seasons! He is also on a 117-73 Run on NCAAF 7* Top Plays! Give your book the beating it deserves today and hop on board for Dave's Saturday NCAA Football 11-Pack for $49.95! By doing so you'll earn access to his 7* Big Ten Game of the Month along with ten 6* picks for you to crush your book with today! Dave guarantees you'll cash in a profit or you get Sunday's NFL picks for FREE!

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Indiana/Northwestern UNDER 41.5

The new field the Northwestern Wildcats are playing on this season is right on the lake.  It gets affected by wind a lot more than most stadiums, and it's almost always windy there.  There will be 15-20 MPH sustained winds on Saturday when the Wildcats host the Indiana Hoosiers.  We saw a similar forecast when Northwestern played Duke earlier this season in a game that was tied 13-13 at the end of regulation.  Both of these defenses are very strong.  Northwestern gives up 302 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.  Indiana gives up 239.6 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play.  I can't see Northwestern topping 10 points in this game, and I'm confident the Wildcats can hold the Hoosiers to 24 to 31 points.  Give me the UNDER.

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Saturday card has 4 big CFB Plays including the SEC Game of the Year and a Big Executive level tier 1. There is also MLB Divisional series systems up. ACC Comp play below

The ACC Comp play is on Georgia Tech at 8 eastern. The Yellow Jackets have won the last 3 in this series and we note that Conference home favorites with rest off a road loss are cashing over 80% vs an opponent that is undefeated and off a home dog win like Duke. The Blue Devils rallied from down double digits last week to stun North Carolina but now face a solid Tech team that is above average on both sides of the ball and has played a tougher schedule. Look for Tech to cover. Rob V-

This is a play on the CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS for our Saturday Free Play. Miami is coming off a controversial win over Virginia Tech as a Hokies last second touchdown was overturned and the Hurricanes survived a 38-34 victory. Now they are in a difficult spot coming off that emotional win and now having to travel out west as a big favorite. The offense was able to generate 505 total yards but quarterback Cam Ward was under pressure all night as he was not only sacked four times but went 8-21 when not in a clean pocket and this favors the California defense as it has a top 40 Pass Rush Rate. The Golden Bears have an outstanding secondary as they are ranked No. 17 in coverage which has led to few redzone chances. Overall, California has allowed 14 points or fewer in all four of its games while its 12.8 ppg allowed is No. 12 in the country. The Golden Bears suffered a tough 14-9 loss at Florida St. despite outgaining the Seminoles 410-284 to fall to 3-1 and while their defense has led the way, the offense has not been horrible, they just have not been able to generate a lot of points. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has not put up huge numbers but he is efficient with a 67.5 percent completion rate and California is No. 33 in Success Rate on passing downs. The running game needs to get going and this is a defense to do so against as the Hurricanes cannot tackle. This is a big number for Miami to be laying after such a huge win and the California defense can keep this one within range and under margin. Play (360) California Golden Bears

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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #390 Minnesota Golden Gophers over USC Trojans (7:30p.m., Saturday, October 5 BTN) Just do not expect Minnesota to meltdown like Wisconsin did last week against USC. The Trojans are not strong in the trenches, and I do not believe they will be able to convert a high percentage of third downs like they did last week. Minnesota took Michigan to the wire last week, a team that beat USC earlier this season and I think they can do the same on Saturday. Look for a lower scoring game and getting points is the way to go. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend Football Card, as we will have a bounce back week. Sign-up now with a long term package and let 53 years of handicapping experience work for you.

#320 ASA FREE PLAY ON Louisville -6.5 over SMU, Saturday at 12 PM ET - Louisville outplayed ND last week and outplayed the Irish (395 yards to 280) and lost.  They had 3 drives into ND territory resulted in 0 points just not taking advantage of field position.  SMU getting pretty lucky with 5 non offensive TD’s this season including 3 in their win 2 weeks ago vs TCU in a game they were outgained.  Last week they played a bad FSU team and picked up with win and the Mustangs were +2 turnovers (+6 turnovers their last 2 games).  Louisville has impressive numbers at +205 YPG and +3 YPP margin.  SMU relies heavily on the run having rushed for over 200 yards in each of their last 2 games vs TCU and FSU.  Both those defenses rank 95th or lower at stopping the run so the Mustangs success on the ground wasn’t a surprise.  In this game they run into a Louisville defense that has been stifling vs the run allowing just 2.8 YPC on the season (15th best in the country).  Last week, a solid Notre Dame running attack was barely able to reach 100 yards on 31 carries.  SMU has been at home since Aug 24th and barely beat Nevada in that game (their only true road game) as a huge favorite.  SMU is a a bit overvalued right now as we look a few weeks ago Louisville was a double digit favorite over a solid Georgia Tech team and now laying under a TD here vs the Stangs.  Cards roll.

My college football is HEATING UP. This Saturday, I continue to SCORCH THE BOOKS on the college football gridiron with my ACC GAME OF THE WEEK, EARLY INFO MOVE, 4-0 ODDSMAKERS MISTAKE, NAVY/AIR FORCE WINNER, & my 66.6% TOUCHDOWN PLAYS.

Saturday’s FREE WINNER: Georgia Bulldogs.

Game 322.

12:30 PM PST/3:30 PM EST.

A year ago, Georgia ran the gauntlet, and had a perfect regular season. Then, as a 5.5-point favorite in the Conference Championship, they were downed by Alabama, 27-24. They then went onto shred Florida State, 63-3 in a December 30th Bowl game. That loss to the Crimson Tide ruins their opportunity for a third straight national title. They began this season, a perfect, 3-0 before going into Tuscaloosa and once again being downed by Alabama, 41-34. They certainly don't have an easy schedule. So, they must run the gauntlet, and take down every opponent with authority and earn a shot once again at the national title. They must start with this game this week against the Auburn Tigers. Auburn is just 2-3, both straight up and against the spread, riding a two-game lose and no cover streak. The Tigers are in real trouble here as they must face a Bulldogs team looking to vent some frustration, and make an example out of them. Georgia has taken seven in a row, and nine of the last 10 meetings in this Division rivalry. Last year's seven-point victory was the first time they failed to cover against Auburn since early 2017. They broke a streak of six consecutive covers in this matchup. I look for them to take out their frustration, make an example of a lesser foe, and get back on the winning track. Take the Bulldogs. Thank you.

*3 Star Free Play on Louisville* Louisville outplayed Notre Dame, but lost the game by a touchdown last week because of turnovers and going 1/5 on 4th down. Tyler Shough showed me a lot in that game though. He was up against a really good Fighting Irish defense, but he had some great throws. Both Lacy and Brooks are really good weapons on the outside. 

SMU blew out Florida State last week, but I think that was more about Florida State being terrible and possibly throwing in the towel. SMU has struggled badly when they step up in class. The Mustangs still have plenty to prove. They are weak on the offensive line, and I think Louisville can get in the backfield quite a bit here. 

SMU had a blowout win over TCU a couple weeks ago when TCU outgained them by more than 100 yards, but TCU had 5 turnovers. The Mustangs have been running good in turnover luck. 

SMU still isn't good enough in the trenches and they have to prove they can step up in competition especially on the road.

Take Louisville.

(29-11 last 40 CFB plays. 21-9 start to the CFB season. Saturday's CFB 3 for $63 Special Offer includes my MAC Total of the Year. Join in!) 

Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan and Texas Tech running back Tahj Brooks are among the best college players at their positions. They are two reasons why I like Texas Tech-Arizona to have a high-scoring game and go Over this total. 

Texas Tech averages 41.6 points and gives up 34.4 points. The Red Raiders lead the Big 12 in points per game - and also lead the conference in most points allowed. Not only do they have Brooks, but a strong passing attack headed by QB Behren Morton, who has thrown for the 12th-most passing yards in the country. 

Arizona QB Noah Fifita also is a good quarterback. The Red Raiders rank second-to-last in the nation in pass defense. They give up 6.4 yards per play, have surrendered a league-worst 23 TD's and only have four sacks. 

Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick

PLAY ON: Indiana -13.5 

Give me the Hoosiers laying less than two touchdowns on the road against Northwestern. This line almost feels too good to be true, but the books haven't been close on the spread for Indiana games this season.

I just don't think people realize how good this Hoosiers team is. Indiana ranks in No. 11 in the country with 513 yards/game. They are No. 10 with an average of 7.6 yards/play. It's not just the offense. The defense ranks No. 10 in total defense allowing 239.6 ypg and 15th in yards/play at 4.2. I just don't see where the points will come from for the Wildcats. Northwestern ranks 121st in total offense at 294.5 ypg and 121st in yards/play at 4.6. The Wildcats had 112 total yards in their last game against Washington.

Big deal Northwestern is at home and coming off a bye. They are a bad team. Indiana may have found something in first year head coach Curt Cignetti. Guy had a 119-35 career record at JMU, Elon and IUP. He's got a team sitting at 5-0 that finished last year 3-9 and was picked by almost everyone to finish in the bottom half of the now 18-team Big ten. Give me the Hoosiers -13.5! 

PSP Data Driven 1* free pick on Over. 

At Professionalsportspicks we see a future where those handicapping sports without advanced analytics and data-driven strategies will be left behind. Our data-driven picks use data integration, search and discovery, and knowledge management along with collaboration with our in-house handicappers. By isolating relevant trends, removing human bias, and targeting only lines with a positive expected value above a certain threshold, our data-driven picks promise to outperform any and all human competitors.

Our models suggest that the value is on the Over. The Gators run defense ranks at the bottom of the SEC. Central Florida ranks #1 in the country in rushing offense.

After losing a close game to Alabama last week someone has to pay , and Im betting that will be Auburn here on the road vs a redemption minded side . Note: The Bulldogs  are 8-0 SU and ATS hosting Auburn since 2007. 

Play on Georgia to cover

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on Air Force plus the points over Navy at 12 noon et on Saturday.

Air Force was a complete no-show on the road against Wyoming last Saturday. The Falcons have now lost three games in a row while Navy checks in a perfect 4-0 on the season. Of course, you can throw records out the window when the service academies do battle for the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. No team has won the trophy in consecutive years since Navy accomplished that feat in 2012-13. Air Force last won it in 2022 with Navy having not taken it home since 2019. But I digress. While Navy's perfect start is impressive, it's not as if it has faced a ton of resistance. The win over Memphis was nice but that came at home. Air Force obviously has a lot to prove this week and given its schedule ahead, a win this week could catapult it into a nice comeback. The Falcons have taken each of the last four meetings in this series and I look for them to take this game down to the wire at the very least on Saturday. Take Air Force.

We like the Navy Midshipmen @ Air Force Falcons game to stay UNDER the total on Saturday for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

We all know that these teams love to run the ball in their unique option style offenses. That means we will see a lot of the clock being chewed in today's encounter.

Since 2014, the UNDER in all service academy games is 26-3-1. That's a trend you don't see very often.

At home this season, Air Forces have allowed an average of just 11.5 points per game.

Navy is playing a lot more aggressive this season, but look for them to go back to ground and pound in this one for most of the game.

The Midshipmen allowed just three points in the first half last game and let up in the second half a bit. Don't expect them to let up in this game as Air Force is much better than their record suggests.

When these teams have met recently, they've seen three straight UNDER's. The UNDER is also 9-2-1 since 2012 when these two teams play each other.

All signs point towards another low scoring game on Saturday.

AAA Sports

Browns vs Commanders 
1 ET, October 6, 2024 
Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD 
5-Unit bet on the Browns priced as 3.5-point underdogs. 

26-13 ATS Last 39 NFL Best Bets and 2-0 ATS with 10-UNIT MAX Bets and 68% ATS last 5 years.
MNF Football Triple System 8-Unit Titan is released.

The week-to-week scoring volatility and results has been the highest ever so far this season. I did have another 10-UNIT Game of the Month winners on the Washington Commanders as the destroyed the Arizona Cardinals 42-14 and were priced as underdogs. I am 4-1 ATS with College and Pro 10-Unit Best Bets this season and both NFL plays have been dogs.  

In week 3 we witnessed the Buffalo Bills embarrassing the Jaguars on National TV and then they themselves were thrashed by the Ravens Sunday night. So, do not think for a second that a previous great or embarrassing performance by any NFL will carry over and form a trend that can be trusted. 

Favorites have gone 37-25 SU (60%) and 27-34-1 ATS (44%) this season. If that favorite is coming off a win, they have gone just 12-14 SU and 6-16-1 ATS (36%). Favorites that were priced as underdogs in their previous game have gone just 8-13 SU (38%) and 6-15 ATS (29%) this season.  

The following NFL betting algorithm has gone 36-36 SU (50%) and 44-22-6 ATS (67%) over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on road dogs priced between 2.5 and 5.5 points. 

The dog scored fewer than their posted team total in their previous game. 

The dog is coming off an upset loss to a conference foe. 

The Browns are priced as 3.5-point road underdogs. They scored 16 points in their four-point loss to the Raiders in Week 4 priced as three-point favorites. 

From the predictive model: The projections call for the Browns to gain 6.25 or more yards-per-pass and to have the same or fewer turnovers. In past games over the previous five seasons, the Browns have gone 19-3 SU (86.4%) and 15-7 ATS for 68% winning bets and 6-2 SUATS 975%) if priced as the dog.