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Free picks
*10-3 NCAAF RUN (as of posting) *FRI & SAT CONF CHAMPIONSHIP WINNERS*Joe D’s NCAAF is SCORCHING HOT & as one of the most profitable documented big game cappers over the L25 years, this is the time of year, WE SCORCH THE BOOKS: C USA, MOUNTAIN WEST, BIG 12, SEC, ACC, BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP WINNERS.
Saturday’s FREE WINNER: Western Michigan Broncos.
Game 114.
9:00 AM PST/12:00 PM EST.
Maybe this game isn't being played in Kalamazoo, but it is being played in Detroit, Michigan and you will see a ton of Broncos fans in the stands. Having said that, this is the third straight MAC title game for the Redhawks, winning the previous two. But they do lose a little luster when they travel going 3-3 on the road this season. While they have won and covered their last two outings, they did struggle a little bit in they're two previous contests, losing and failing to cover both. Meanwhile, Western Michigan enters this matchup red-hot, winning four in a row straight up, and covering their last three games. As a matter of fact, they have played some darn good football. I am well aware Miami took down Western Michigan in the only meeting this season, back at the end of October at home, 26-17. That was their second consecutive win and cover going back several seasons. Prior to that Western Michigan dominated this rivalry, winning eight consecutive meetings straight up, and going 5-3 ATS during that span. Neither offense is known for their passing games. Without question both offenses rely upon their ground games. But also, without question, the Broncos are stronger at running the football. Coincidentally enough, they're both pretty darn good at stopping in rush, as Western Michigan is certainly stronger against the pass. They also possess a defense that ranks 13th nationally, yielding just 18.7 PPG. Speaking of offense, the dual-threat senior quarterback for the Redhawks, is no longer here. And they have a younger, less-seasoned, quarterback at the helm. I just don't see him having too much success here. As a matter of fact, this is a big step up in class from what he's seen recently. Just FYI, Dequan Finn was the experienced leader under center when Miami took down Western Michigan. Now the reins have been passed to Thomas Gotkowski really just has one start under his belt. You can't compare that to quarterback Broc Lowry, who possesses a 63.5% completion rate, 1572 yards passing, and a 7/2 ratio this season. He will be the difference on offense, while the Broncos defense take care of the rest. Take Western Michigan. Thank you.
PICKS IN PROGRESS
Dallas Mavericks.
With all respect to the NBA's best team, the Oklahoma City Thunder, they are regularly overvalued by oddsmakers. Yes, there are 21-1 straight up this season. But they've only covered 11 of their 22 outings, which includes no covers in six of their last nine games. Granted the Mavericks leave a lot to be desired. But one thing they don't leave to be desired, is ATS covers. They are on a three-game cover streak in which they've also won all three of those games, which includes two away games. These two teams met at the end of October in Dallas when OKC prevailed 101-94. That was Cooper Flagg’s season-low as far as scoring and shooting. The standout rookie accounted for just two-points on just 1-of-9 shooting. Right now, the 18-year-old became the youngest player in the NBA history to score 20 or more points in three consecutive games. During their three-game win streak, he is averaging 27.0 PPG, and 59.3% shooting from the floor. I feel he will play a significant role in this matchup, and keep this game a lot closer than the pointspread.
Memphis Grizzlies.
I think the line is off in this matchup. I feel the Grizzlies should be a two-point fav here. But that's OK, we can take advantage of the mistake made by the oddsmakers. Following a six-game losing streak in this rivalry up until last March, Memphis took the only meeting this season, a little more than a week ago on the road, 112-107. The Clippers are struggling, my friends. They are just 2-8 straight up their last 10, and have only covered one of their last six outings. They are overall just 3-9 on the road this season. Meanwhile, Memphis is starting to heat up. They won and covered two games before a bad road outing at the hands of the Nuggets, then went on to win and cover three straight all on the road, before their last outing, a road loss and no cover at the Spurs. They're in a “bounce-back” mode here against the team they took down already this season. Both teams score about the same, and both defenses allow about the same. The big difference you will see here is Memphis being far superior from the free-throw line, and on the offensive glass. Oh, by the way, they're also at home.
Denver Nuggets.
After starting this season 11-2, the Denver Nuggets are just 5-4 their last nine outings. Most teams would be happy with a winning percentage of .714, but not the Nuggets. They have won eight consecutive road games straight up, covering seven of those eight. To say they've dominated the Atlanta Hawks, would be an understatement. Denver has prevailed in five consecutive meetings with Atlanta both SU and ATS, and overall, eight of the last nine both SU/ATS. Atlanta used to be one of the best home teams in the NBA. But that's not the case anymore as this season they're just 4-5 on their own court, and have struggled badly. I just don't see this team keeping pace on the scoreboard with their lackluster offense. I mean they rank 18th in scoring, and must try to keep pace with the top-scoring team in the NBA. I just don't see it happening.
Washington Capitals.
Washington will enter tonight's matchup with confidence knowing they have taken five consecutive meetings with Anaheim, which does include three straight on the road. They also come into this matchup overall, one of the hottest teams in the NHL, winning six in a row and nine of their last 10 outings, which does include all four road games played during that span. Meanwhile, Anaheim is struggling. They have split out their last 10 games, and playing at home hasn't given them too much of a benefit recently, dropping three of their last five games played on their own ice. Their defense is almost nonexistent, as they rank 21st in the league, allowing 3.2 GPG. Yes, it's true they own of the highest-scoring offenses in hockey, but their defense has been so bad, it has hurt them. Meanwhile, the Capitals during their current six-game hot streak, have outscored opponents by a combined 27-9. As a matter of fact, their defense/goaltending has been outstanding. They ranked second in the NHL, yielding just 2.5 GPG, while they also possess the second-best scoring offense, scoring over 3.5 GPG.
Boise State.
As a Las Vegas resident of 36 years, I know the Mountain West Conference very well. While I try to support my local teams as much as possible, my loyalty is to my bankroll and to you. My friends, Superman had kryptonite and UNLV has Boise State. The Rebels cannot beat the Broncos, who have taken 10 consecutive meetings in this rivalry, covering seven of those 10, which does include six consecutive ATS covers. This season, these two conference rivals met on October 18 here in Vegas, as BSU prevailed 56-31. Both teams come in here on winning streaks, but Boise State had an extra day to rest, heal, and prepare. This is also a home game for the Broncos, and you know how loyal their fans are. Quarterback, Madsen (nearly 2,000 YP, nearly a 60% CR, 15/7) is returning from injury, but reports are he is 100%. There is also the storyline the Broncos are leaving the mountain west for the Pac 12 next year. They want to leave on a high note. This is also going to be a cold game, which does not benefit UNLV. There is no question the Broncos defense is tougher. Yes, I will admit the Rebels offense scores a bit more, but Boise State has frustrated better offenses than this. They continue their domination in this rivalry.
Jacksonville State.
Sports fans, in all sincerity, the wrong team is favored in this matchup. Yes, Kennesaw State sports a better overall record at 9-3, and a better ATS mark as well, at 7-4-1, but they've lost and failed to cover the last three meetings with Jacksonville State, which does include a November 15 game, 35-26. The Gamecocks are a heck of a team, going 8-4 SU, and covering six of their 12 outings this season. One of the biggest differences in this matchup is the home record of Jacksonville State, as they are 5-0 when hosting this season. This game is being played in Jacksonville, Alabama and will be filled with Gamecock fans. With all respect to the Owls, they are just 3-3 on the road in 2025. Playing away from home has been an issue for the team. The K State defense leaves a lot to be desired, while their offense turned the ball over 14 times this season. The Jax State offense possesses the nation’s third-ranked rushing attack. They also possess a pretty decent defense that has snagged 12 takeaways. They will control the clock and the tempo of this game offensively, and win this game outright. But I will take the points the odds makers are giving us.
