There are a never ending amount of angles and trends that can be used to breakdown NBA playoffs games. Using these to your advantage can greatly help when handicapping the NBA.
I have already shown you the odds on a team up 3-0 closing the deal in Game 4. Now I want to share with you how a team who swept their last opponent performs in the first game of their next series.
Let’s take a look at the numbers. I have a breakdown of straight up, ATS results and totals figures. I also check to see how rest can factor into the equation.
How to Bet Teams Off a Series Sweep in the NBA Playoffs
The straight up record of a team in this spot is 23-12 (65.7%) in Game 1 of the next series.
I wasn’t surprised to see that be the case. Any team that can pull off a sweep has to be loaded with talent.
These are also almost always the top seeds in each conference. Which also means they are enjoying the benefit of hosting the first game.
In fact, of the 35 times that this scenario has come up, 25 have hosted Game 1. The record when hosting Game 1 is an impressive 20-5 (80.0%).
Against the Spread
The results that were the most shocking came when looking at performance against the line. The against the spread record in Game 1 for a team coming off a sweep is 20-14-1 (58.8%) ATS overall.
The average line was -4.3 points. Those numbers are much lower than expected but still provide a favorable advantage. When that team is playing at home those numbers improve dramatically. They are 17-8 (68.0%) ATS with an average line of -7.9 points.
You might be surprised at just how much rest can influence the results. Teams that are playing on 5+ days of rest against an opponent on 1 day of rest are 13-2-1 (86.7%) ATS in this spot.
The record straight up is almost identical at 14-2 and the average line was 3.9 points. When playing at home the more rested team is 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS with an average line of 9.1 points.
We see a slight advantage in these games finishing under the total in these games. Not a big surprise given how the UNDER tends to do well in the postseason. The UNDER is 20-15 (42.9%) when you have a team that swept their previous opponent.