Jimmy Boyd in Is the number on Patrick Mahomes worth taking today, or is the smarter play waiting for the story to change? That’s the real question with NFL Comeback Player of the Year, and it plays out differently than most futures markets. I’m watching 47 players priced across 5 sportsbooks, updated September 11, 2026, and this board reacts to headlines as fast as box scores.
A comeback story usually announces itself before the season ends, and once it does, the price on the player living it collapses. That’s why the early number, the one that looks generous during a slow stretch, often holds the real value. Wait for proof and you’re just betting the obvious, at a worse price than it was earlier.
2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award Odds
| # | Player | Best price | Book | Implied | 7 days | Since start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes | -230 | bet365 | 69.7% | – | -60% |
| 2 | Joe Burrow | +1500 | bet365 | 6.3% | – | – |
| 3 | Aaron Donald | +1900 | FanDuel | 5.0% | – | +88% |
| 4 | Kyler Murray | +2000 | BetMGM | 4.8% | – | +113% |
| 5 | Cam Skattebo | +3000 | BetMGM | 3.2% | – | -10% |
| 6 | Fred Warner | +3000 | BetMGM | 3.2% | – | even |
| 7 | Daniel Jones | +3000 | BetMGM | 3.2% | – | +56% |
| 8 | Malik Nabers | +3000 | DraftKings | 3.2% | – | +150% |
| 9 | Nick Bosa | +4000 | BetMGM | 2.4% | – | +10% |
| 10 | Kirk Cousins | +4000 | bet365 | 2.4% | – | – |
| 11 | George Kittle | +4500 | FanDuel | 2.2% | – | +17% |
| 12 | Trey Hendrickson | +4500 | Caesars | 2.2% | – | -11% |
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| 13 | Tucker Kraft | +5000 | BetMGM | 2.0% | – | +60% |
| 14 | Micah Parsons | +5000 | BetMGM | 2.0% | – | +21% |
| 15 | Garrett Wilson | +6000 | FanDuel | 1.6% | – | +25% |
| 16 | Michael Penix | +6000 | Caesars | 1.6% | – | -33% |
| 17 | Bo Nix | +7500 | bet365 | 1.3% | – | – |
| 18 | Brock Bowers | +8000 | BetMGM | 1.2% | – | even |
| 19 | Geno Smith | +8000 | FanDuel | 1.2% | – | +11% |
| 20 | Travis Hunter | +8000 | BetMGM | 1.2% | – | +50% |
| 21 | Quinshon Judkins | +8000 | BetMGM | 1.2% | – | even |
| 22 | Deshaun Watson | +10000 | BetMGM | 1.0% | – | -27% |
| 23 | Tank Dell | +10000 | BetMGM | 1.0% | – | +7% |
| 24 | Sam LaPorta | +10000 | BetMGM | 1.0% | – | +7% |
| 25 | Carson Wentz | +10000 | BetMGM | 1.0% | – | -5% |
| 26 | Malik Willis | +10000 | BetMGM | 1.0% | – | even |
| 27 | Brian Thomas | +10000 | Caesars | 1.0% | – | even |
| 28 | J.K. Dobbins | +12500 | Caesars | 0.8% | – | +25% |
| 29 | Calvin Ridley | +12500 | Caesars | 0.8% | – | +25% |
| 30 | Odell Beckham | +15000 | BetMGM | 0.7% | – | -5% |
| 31 | Brian Branch | +15000 | FanDuel | 0.7% | – | -17% |
| 32 | Sauce Gardner | +15000 | BetMGM | 0.7% | – | +33% |
| 33 | Tyreek Hill | +15000 | BetMGM | 0.7% | – | -9% |
| 34 | Zach Charbonnet | +15000 | bet365 | 0.7% | – | even |
| 35 | Nnamdi Madubuike | +15000 | bet365 | 0.7% | – | – |
| 36 | Jonathon Brooks | +17500 | bet365 | 0.6% | – | +38% |
| 37 | Marvin Harrison | +20000 | FanDuel | 0.5% | – | +33% |
| 38 | Najee Harris | +20000 | FanDuel | 0.5% | – | – |
| 39 | James Conner | +20000 | Caesars | 0.5% | – | -12% |
| 40 | Tua Tagovailoa | +25000 | BetMGM | 0.4% | – | +7% |
| 41 | Kerby Joseph | +25000 | BetMGM | 0.4% | – | even |
| 42 | Mykel Williams | +25000 | BetMGM | 0.4% | – | +8% |
| 43 | Anthony Richardson | +25000 | BetMGM | 0.4% | – | even |
| 44 | J.J. McCarthy | +50000 | BetMGM | 0.2% | – | even |
| 45 | Joe Alt | +50000 | BetMGM | 0.2% | – | even |
| Only one book still prices these | ||||||
| 46 | Jayden Daniels | +1500 | bet365 | 6.3% | – | – |
| 47 | Will Levis | +15000 | Caesars | 0.7% | – | – |
| 48 | Zach Ertz | +20000 | FanDuel | 0.5% | – | – |
| 49 | Teddye Buchanan | +20000 | FanDuel | 0.5% | – | – |
Best price is the longest number we found across bet365, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel. Implied probability strips nothing out; the whole board adds to more than 100% and that gap is the books’ margin. Movement is the change in what a winning dollar pays, so a move means the same thing at the top of the board and at the bottom; green means the price shortened. It reads across the books quoting a player both then and now, and a row too thinly quoted to compare shows a dash rather than a number. Since start runs from the first day we have every book’s price, which is not the market’s opening line.
Why a Story Award Prices Fastest Before the Story Is Obvious
NFL Comeback Player of the Year is a story award, not a stat line, and the market usually knows the story by midseason. Once a player’s return becomes the obvious headline, the price shrinks fast and the value is gone. The entire edge in this market is getting in before the vote feels settled, not after.
Take a real look early, before a signature performance turns a hunch into a headline, because once a comeback is the story on national broadcasts, there’s no value left in confirming what everyone already knows.
What the Comeback Price Really Says
Every price on this board converts to an implied probability, and add up the whole field and the total runs well past 100 percent. That gap is the juice, the book’s built-in cut for taking your action. Patrick Mahomes at +200 implies 33.3%, and that number already has the house’s edge folded into it, so it’s never a pure read on the odds of the vote.
That’s why shopping matters more here than on a straightforward market. I compare bet365, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel because a comeback story doesn’t price the same everywhere at once. One book can still be sitting on an old number while another has already reacted to a big performance. Checking the same name across 5 sportsbooks is the only way to know if you’re getting today’s real price or just the first one that popped up.
When a Deep Price Is Worth a Small Ticket
Teddye Buchanan sitting at +20000 is a lottery ticket, not a bet on production. For a price that long to cash, it usually takes a real absence the year before, a real role once healthy, and a game or two strong enough to grab the market’s attention before the field catches on. That’s a specific combination, and most names priced this deep never check more than one of those boxes.
A small ticket on Teddye Buchanan only makes sense if there’s an actual path to snaps and a real absence behind it. Most of the long prices on this board are dead money by design, posted to fill out the field rather than because there’s a realistic route to the award. If you can’t describe the specific game where Teddye Buchanan becomes the story, skip it and put that money on a name with a clearer path.
