Jimmy Boyd in NFL Confidence Pool Picks: Week 9
All 15 Week 9 games, with the team to take in each and how many points to put on it. A confidence pool pays the points you put on every winner, so the most points go on the surest winner: the Seahawks get 15 at 84% to win, and the closest game, the Saints at home against the Browns at 51%, gets 1. Ranked this way the picks score about 88 of the 120 possible points on average. Lines as of Wednesday, November 4 at 7:00 AM CT.
Week 9 Confidence Rankings
| Pts | Pick | Line | Win % | Public on it | Their pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Seattle Seahawksvs Arizona Cardinals, Sunday | -12.5 | 84% | 97% | 9.9 |
| 14 | Jacksonville Jaguarsat Baltimore Ravens, Thursday | -10 | 80% | 94% | 9.2 |
| 13 | San Francisco 49ersvs Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday | -10 | 79% | 98% | 10.5 |
| 12 | Kansas City Chiefsvs New York Jets, Sunday | -9.5 | 78% | 99% | 11.6 |
| 11 | Detroit Lionsat Miami Dolphins, Sunday | -7 | 73% | 98% | 10.7 |
| 10 | Chicago Bearsvs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday | -6 | 71% | 97% | 8.8 |
| 9 | Dallas Cowboysat Indianapolis Colts, Sunday | -5.5 | 69% | 89% | 6.2 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Ramsat Washington Commanders, Sunday | -5.5 | 69% | 92% | 7.7 |
| 7 | Houston Texansat Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday | -4.5 | 67% | 86% | 5.9 |
| 6 | Buffalo Billsat Minnesota Vikings, Monday | -3 | 63% | 86% | 5.6 |
| 5 | New York Giantsat Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday | -3.5 | 62% | 86% | 4.8 |
| 4 | New England Patriotsvs Green Bay Packers, Sunday | -3 | 61% | 62% | 3.9 |
| 3 | Cincinnati Bengalsat Atlanta Falcons, Sunday | -3 | 60% | 89% | 6.3 |
| 2 | Denver Broncosat Carolina Panthers, Sunday | -3 | 59% | 89% | 6.6 |
| 1 | New Orleans Saintsvs Cleveland Browns, Sunday | -1.5 | 51% | 60% | 3.4 |
Win % is the moneyline with the bookmaker’s margin taken out: the sharpest book’s line where it has the game, the average of the others where it doesn’t. Public on it is the share of Yahoo’s confidence pick’em players who took the same team, and Their pts the average points those players gave it (Yahoo’s pick distribution as of Wednesday, November 4 at 11:56 AM CT). With 15 games this week the points run from 15 down to 1; a week with fewer games on byes uses fewer points.
In a Big Pool: Where the Crowd Is Too Sure
89% of Yahoo’s confidence players are on the Broncos against the Panthers, but the moneyline gives them 59% to win. In a big pool, finishing first takes points the rest of the field doesn’t get, and this is the game where they are cheapest. Take the Panthers for 1 point and move every other game up one: it costs about 0.3 points on average. When the Panthers win, you take the point, and the 89% who took the Broncos lose the 6.6 points they put on them on average.
In a small pool, keep the ranking as it is. Going against the crowd only pays when there are enough people in the pool that the average score won’t win it.
Lines move between now and kickoff, most of all when a starting quarterback is ruled out. A game that moves a lot should move in the ranking with it, so check the order again before your pool locks.
