NFL Playoffs Fantasy Picks – Optimized Player Projections

For the last few years, I've been enjoying an NFL playoffs fantasy league. Rules seem to differ from league to league, but ours only lets each manager select a maximum of two players from each team. Other than that, it's basically your standard PPR fantasy football scoring. The twist is the strategy around predicting how many games each team will play.

The playoffs bring unique challenges and opportunities for fantasy football players. Unlike the regular season, where the focus is on weekly consistency, playoffs fantasy requires balancing team success probabilities with player performance. Our projections look at how to optimize your fantasy lineup by predicting each player’s total expected points based on their team's probability of advancing through each playoff round.

Note: It should be obvious, but be careful with backup players (especially QBs) with a high point total. Their "average" isn't going to be very accurate if they didn't play in very many games.

Player	Position	Team	AVG FPP	Wild Card Round	Divisional Round	Conference Final	Super Bowl	Proj. Fantasy Points
Puka Nacua	WR	LAR	23.4	23.40	20.06	10.09	7.20	60.74
Matthew Stafford	QB	LAR	21.1	21.10	18.09	9.09	6.49	54.77
Drake Maye	QB	NE	21.2	21.20	13.94	8.29	4.33	47.76
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	SEA	21.2	0.00	21.20	13.89	8.31	43.40
Josh Allen	QB	BUF	22	22.00	11.91	4.51	3.83	42.24
Jalen Hurts	QB	PHI	19.1	19.10	13.31	5.79	3.32	41.52
Davante Adams	WR	LAR	15.9	15.90	13.63	6.85	4.89	41.27
Kyren Williams	RB	LAR	15.5	15.50	13.29	6.68	4.77	40.24
Trevor Lawrence	QB	JAX	20.6	20.60	10.40	5.27	3.17	39.44
Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	24.5	24.50	8.45	3.63	1.53	38.11
Bo Nix	QB	DEN	18.6	0.00	18.60	13.47	5.64	37.70
Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	19.1	19.10	9.92	5.71	1.59	36.32
Brock Purdy	QB	SF	20.8	20.80	7.17	3.08	1.30	32.35
A.J. Brown	WR	PHI	14.7	14.70	10.25	4.45	2.56	31.96
Saquon Barkley	RB	PHI	14.5	14.50	10.11	4.39	2.52	31.52
C.J. Stroud	QB	HOU	15.5	15.50	9.96	3.60	2.38	31.44
Nico Collins	WR	HOU	15.1	15.10	9.71	3.50	2.32	30.63
Sam Darnold	QB	SEA	14.7	0.00	14.70	9.63	5.76	30.09
Justin Herbert	QB	LAC	18.7	18.70	7.19	1.70	1.34	28.93
Rhamondre Stevenson	RB	NE	12.8	12.80	8.42	5.00	2.61	28.83
Jordan Love	QB	GB	16.1	16.10	8.51	2.11	1.24	27.95
Stefon Diggs	WR	NE	12.4	12.40	8.15	4.85	2.53	27.93
Josh Jacobs	RB	GB	15.8	15.80	8.35	2.07	1.22	27.43
TreVeyon Henderson	RB	NE	12.1	12.10	7.96	4.73	2.47	27.26
D'Andre Swift	RB	CHI	14.3	14.30	7.43	4.28	1.19	27.19
Dallas Goedert	TE	PHI	12.3	12.30	8.57	3.73	2.14	26.74
Courtland Sutton	WR	DEN	12.9	0.00	12.90	9.34	3.91	26.15
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	11.9	11.90	8.29	3.61	2.07	25.87
RJ Harvey	RB	DEN	12.2	0.00	12.20	8.83	3.70	24.73
Hunter Henry	TE	NE	10.5	10.50	6.90	4.11	2.14	23.65
Davis Mills	QB	HOU	11.6	11.60	7.46	2.69	1.78	23.53
J.K. Dobbins	RB	DEN	11.6	0.00	11.60	8.40	3.52	23.51
Omarion Hampton	RB	LAC	15.1	15.10	5.81	1.37	1.08	23.36
Rome Odunze	WR	CHI	12.2	12.20	6.33	3.65	1.02	23.20
Zach Charbonnet	RB	SEA	11.3	0.00	11.30	7.40	4.43	23.13
Christian Watson	WR	GB	13.2	13.20	6.97	1.73	1.02	22.92
George Kittle	TE	SF	14.7	14.70	5.07	2.18	0.92	22.86
Aaron Rodgers	QB	PIT	14.6	14.60	5.84	1.49	0.77	22.70
Colby Parkinson	TE	LAR	8.7	8.70	7.46	3.75	2.68	22.58
Seattle Seahawks	DST	SEA	10.9	0.00	10.90	7.14	4.27	22.31
Malik Willis	QB	GB	12.8	12.80	6.76	1.68	0.98	22.22
Parker Washington	WR	JAX	11.5	11.50	5.81	2.94	1.77	22.02
Dalton Schultz	TE	HOU	10.5	10.50	6.75	2.44	1.62	21.30
Jaylen Warren	RB	PIT	13.6	13.60	5.44	1.39	0.72	21.14
Troy Franklin	WR	DEN	10.4	0.00	10.40	7.53	3.15	21.08
Jakobi Meyers	WR	JAX	11	11.00	5.55	2.82	1.69	21.06
Houston Texans	DST	HOU	10.2	10.20	6.56	2.37	1.57	20.69
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	PIT	13	13.00	5.20	1.33	0.68	20.21
Dalton Kincaid	TE	BUF	10.5	10.50	5.68	2.15	1.83	20.16
Kayshon Boutte	WR	NE	8.9	8.90	5.85	3.48	1.82	20.05
Khalil Shakir	WR	BUF	10.4	10.40	5.63	2.13	1.81	19.97
Colston Loveland	TE	CHI	10.3	10.30	5.35	3.08	0.86	19.59
DK Metcalf	WR	PIT	12.5	12.50	5.00	1.28	0.66	19.43
Mac Jones	QB	SF	12.4	12.40	4.28	1.84	0.78	19.29
Los Angeles Rams	DST	LAR	7.4	7.40	6.34	3.19	2.28	19.21
Woody Marks	RB	HOU	9.4	9.40	6.04	2.18	1.45	19.07
DJ Moore	WR	CHI	10	10.00	5.19	2.99	0.83	19.02
Quentin Johnston	WR	LAC	12.2	12.20	4.69	1.11	0.87	18.87
Brenton Strange	TE	JAX	9.8	9.80	4.95	2.51	1.51	18.77
Blake Corum	RB	LAR	7.2	7.20	6.17	3.10	2.22	18.69
Tyler Higbee	TE	LAR	7.1	7.10	6.09	3.06	2.18	18.43
Jauan Jennings	WR	SF	11.6	11.60	4.00	1.72	0.73	18.04
Romeo Doubs	WR	GB	10.3	10.30	5.44	1.35	0.79	17.88
Rashid Shaheed	WR	SEA	8.7	0.00	8.70	5.70	3.41	17.81
AJ Barner	TE	SEA	8.7	0.00	8.70	5.70	3.41	17.81
Bryce Young	QB	CAR	14.3	14.30	2.65	0.46	0.22	17.62
New England Patriots	DST	NE	7.8	7.80	5.13	3.05	1.59	17.57
Ladd McConkey	WR	LAC	11.3	11.30	4.35	1.03	0.81	17.48
Denver Bronocos	DST	DEN	8.5	0.00	8.50	6.15	2.58	17.23
Mack Hollins	WR	NE	7.6	7.60	5.00	2.97	1.55	17.12
Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	10.7	10.70	4.12	0.97	0.76	16.55
Kyle Monangai	RB	CHI	8.6	8.60	4.47	2.57	0.72	16.35
Philadelphia Eagles	DST	PHI	7.4	7.40	5.16	2.24	1.29	16.09
Jacksonville Jaguars	DST	JAX	8.2	8.20	4.14	2.10	1.26	15.70
Rico Dowdle	RB	CAR	12.7	12.70	2.35	0.41	0.19	15.65
Jayden Higgins	WR	HOU	7.6	7.60	4.89	1.76	1.17	15.42
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	CAR	12.4	12.40	2.30	0.40	0.19	15.28
Keon Coleman	WR	BUF	7.9	7.90	4.28	1.62	1.37	15.17
Jawhar Jordan	RB	HOU	7.4	7.40	4.76	1.72	1.14	15.01
Mitchell Trubisky	QB	BUF	7.8	7.80	4.22	1.60	1.36	14.98
Cooper Kupp	WR	SEA	7.3	0.00	7.30	4.78	2.86	14.94
Kimani Vidal	RB	LAC	9.1	9.10	3.50	0.83	0.65	14.08
Ricky Pearsall	WR	SF	8.9	8.90	3.07	1.32	0.56	13.84
Buffalo Bills	DST	BUF	6.9	6.90	3.73	1.41	1.20	13.25
Evan Engram	TE	DEN	6.4	0.00	6.40	4.63	1.94	12.97
Demario Douglas	WR	NE	5.6	5.60	3.68	2.19	1.14	12.61
Jayden Reed	WR	GB	6.9	6.90	3.65	0.90	0.53	11.98
Nick Chubb	RB	HOU	5.9	5.90	3.79	1.37	0.91	11.97
Xavier Hutchinson	WR	HOU	5.8	5.80	3.73	1.35	0.89	11.77
Dawson Knox	TE	BUF	6.1	6.10	3.30	1.25	1.06	11.71
Ty Johnson	RB	BUF	5.9	5.90	3.19	1.21	1.03	11.33
Bhayshul Tuten	RB	JAX	5.9	5.90	2.98	1.51	0.91	11.30
Los Angeles Chargers	DST	LAC	7	7.00	2.69	0.64	0.50	10.83
Chicago Bears	DST	CHI	5.5	5.50	2.86	1.64	0.46	10.46
Pat Freiermuth	TE	PIT	6.7	6.70	2.68	0.68	0.35	10.42
Terrance Ferguson	TE	LAR	4	4.00	3.43	1.72	1.23	10.38
Chuba Hubbard	RB	CAR	8.4	8.40	1.56	0.27	0.13	10.35
Pittsburgh Steelers	DST	PIT	6.6	6.60	2.64	0.67	0.35	10.26
Pat Bryant	WR	DEN	5	0.00	5.00	3.62	1.52	10.14
Jalen Coker	WR	CAR	8.2	8.20	1.52	0.26	0.12	10.11
Olamide Zaccheaus	WR	CHI	5.3	5.30	2.75	1.58	0.44	10.08
Gabe Davis	WR	BUF	5.1	5.10	2.76	1.05	0.89	9.79
Emanuel Wilson	RB	GB	5.6	5.60	2.96	0.73	0.43	9.72
Dontayvion Wicks	WR	GB	5.4	5.40	2.85	0.71	0.42	9.38
Cole Kmet	TE	CHI	4.9	4.90	2.54	1.47	0.41	9.32
Christian Kirk	WR	HOU	4.5	4.50	2.89	1.04	0.69	9.13
Kendrick Bourne	WR	SF	5.8	5.80	2.00	0.86	0.36	9.02
Matthew Golden	WR	GB	5	5.00	2.64	0.66	0.38	8.68
Austin Hooper	TE	NE	3.7	3.70	2.43	1.45	0.76	8.33
Jaylin Noel	WR	HOU	4	4.00	2.57	0.93	0.62	8.11
Tutu Atwell	WR	LAR	3.1	3.10	2.66	1.34	0.95	8.05
Tanner McKee	QB	PHI	3.7	3.70	2.58	1.12	0.64	8.04
Jaleel McLaughlin	RB	DEN	3.9	0.00	3.90	2.82	1.18	7.91
Green Bay Packers	DST	GB	4.5	4.50	2.38	0.59	0.35	7.81
Xavier Smith	WR	LAR	3	3.00	2.57	1.29	0.92	7.79
Jonnu Smith	TE	PIT	5	5.00	2.00	0.51	0.26	7.77
Xavier Legette	WR	CAR	6	6.00	1.11	0.19	0.09	7.39
Hunter Renfrow	WR	CAR	6	6.00	1.11	0.19	0.09	7.39
Tank Bigsby	RB	PHI	3.4	3.40	2.37	1.03	0.59	7.39
Ray Davis	RB	BUF	3.8	3.80	2.06	0.78	0.66	7.30
Carolina Panthers	DST	CAR	5.8	5.80	1.07	0.19	0.09	7.15
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	WR	DEN	3.5	0.00	3.50	2.53	1.06	7.09
Hunter Long	TE	JAX	3.6	3.60	1.82	0.92	0.55	6.89
Brandin Cooks	WR	BUF	3.5	3.50	1.89	0.72	0.61	6.72
Curtis Samuel	WR	BUF	3.5	3.50	1.89	0.72	0.61	6.72
Kyle Williams	WR	NE	2.9	2.90	1.91	1.13	0.59	6.53
Demarcus Robinson	WR	SF	4.2	4.20	1.45	0.62	0.26	6.53
Jahan Dotson	WR	PHI	3	3.00	2.09	0.91	0.52	6.52
Tre Harris	WR	LAC	4.1	4.10	1.58	0.37	0.29	6.34
Dyami Brown	WR	JAX	3.3	3.30	1.67	0.84	0.51	6.32
Elijah Moore	WR	BUF	3.2	3.20	1.73	0.66	0.56	6.14
Tim Patrick	WR	JAX	3.2	3.20	1.62	0.82	0.49	6.13
San Francisco 49ers	DST	SF	3.6	3.60	1.24	0.53	0.23	5.60
Adam Trautman	TE	DEN	2.7	0.00	2.70	1.95	0.82	5.47
Jordan Whittington	WR	LAR	2.1	2.10	1.80	0.91	0.65	5.45
Kyle Juszczyk	FB	SF	3.4	3.40	1.17	0.50	0.21	5.29
Tyrell Shavers	WR	BUF	2.7	2.70	1.46	0.55	0.47	5.18
Luke Musgrave	TE	GB	2.9	2.90	1.53	0.38	0.22	5.04
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	WR	PIT	3.2	3.20	1.28	0.33	0.17	4.97
Braxton Berrios	WR	HOU	2.4	2.40	1.54	0.56	0.37	4.87
Tommy Tremble	TE	CAR	3.8	3.80	0.70	0.12	0.06	4.68
Cade Stover	TE	HOU	2.2	2.20	1.41	0.51	0.34	4.46
Tyler Badie	RB	DEN	2.2	0.00	2.20	1.59	0.67	4.46
Roman Wilson	WR	PIT	2.8	2.80	1.12	0.29	0.15	4.35
Justin Watson	WR	HOU	2	2.00	1.29	0.46	0.31	4.06
Konata Mumpfield	WR	LAR	1.5	1.50	1.29	0.65	0.46	3.89
Adam Thielen	WR	PIT	2.5	2.50	1.00	0.26	0.13	3.89
Savion Williams	WR	GB	2.1	2.10	1.11	0.28	0.16	3.65
Will Dissly	TE	LAC	2.3	2.30	0.88	0.21	0.16	3.56
Mitchell Evans	TE	CAR	2.8	2.80	0.52	0.09	0.04	3.45
Chris Brooks	RB	GB	1.9	1.90	1.00	0.25	0.15	3.30
Darius Cooper	WR	PHI	1.4	1.40	0.98	0.42	0.24	3.04
Dare Ogunbowale	RB	HOU	1.4	1.40	0.90	0.32	0.22	2.84
Tyler Conklin	TE	LAC	1.7	1.70	0.65	0.15	0.12	2.63
Will Shipley	RB	PHI	1.2	1.20	0.84	0.36	0.21	2.61
KeAndre Lambert-Smith	WR	LAC	1.6	1.60	0.62	0.15	0.11	2.48
Ronnie Rivers	RB	LAR	0.7	0.70	0.60	0.30	0.22	1.82
Tyson Bagent	QB	CHI	0.9	0.90	0.47	0.27	0.08	1.71
Jordan Watkins	WR	SF	0.9	0.90	0.31	0.13	0.06	1.40
Skyy Moore	WR	SF	0.9	0.90	0.31	0.13	0.06	1.40
Kaleb Johnson	RB	PIT	0.9	0.90	0.36	0.09	0.05	1.40
Joshua Dobbs	QB	NE	0.5	0.50	0.33	0.20	0.10	1.13
Trevor Etienne	RB	CAR	0.7	0.70	0.13	0.02	0.01	0.86
Jake Bobo	WR	SEA	0.4	0.00	0.40	0.26	0.16	0.82
Devin Duvernay	WR	CHI	0.3	0.30	0.16	0.09	0.03	0.57
Derius Davis	WR	LAC	0.1	0.10	0.04	0.01	0.01	0.15
Brian Thomas	WR	JAX	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Travis Hunter	WR	JAX	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Luther Burden	WR	CHI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Tory Horton	WR	SEA	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Marvin Mims	WR	DEN	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Calvin Austin	WR	PIT	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Josh Palmer	WR	BUF	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jared Wayne	WR	HOU	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Michael Bandy	WR	DEN	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jahdae Walker	WR	CHI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Bo Melton	WR	GB	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jimmy Horn	WR	CAR	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Cody White	WR	SEA	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Efton Chism	WR	NE	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Brycen Tremayne	WR	CAR	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Austin Trammell	WR	JAX	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Malik Heath	WR	GB	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ben Skowronek	WR	PIT	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Dareke Young	WR	SEA	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Scott Miller	WR	PIT	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
David Moore	WR	CAR	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Tim Jones	WR	JAX	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Xavier Gipson	WR	PHI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Russell Gage	WR	SF	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Malik Turner	WR	SF	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ricky White	WR	SEA	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Britain Covey	WR	PHI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Maurice Alexander	WR	CHI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Dalevon Campbell	WR	CAR	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Dan Chisena	WR	CAR	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Mecole Hardman	WR	BUF	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Tucker Kraft	TE	GB	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Oronde Gadsden	TE	LAC	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jake Tonges	TE	SF	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Darnell Washington	TE	PIT	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ja'Tavion Sanders	TE	CAR	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Davis Allen	TE	LAR	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jackson Hawes	TE	BUF	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Elijah Arroyo	TE	SEA	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Nate Adkins	TE	DEN	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Luke Farrell	TE	SF	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Josh Whyle	TE	GB	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
John FitzPatrick	TE	GB	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
James Mitchell	TE	CAR	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Connor Heyward	TE	PIT	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Johnny Mundt	TE	JAX	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Lucas Krull	TE	DEN	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Grant Calcaterra	TE	PHI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Quintin Morris	TE	JAX	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Eric Saubert	TE	SEA	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Tucker Fisk	TE	LAC	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Durham Smythe	TE	CHI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Keleki Latu	TE	BUF	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Kylen Granson	TE	PHI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Harrison Bryant	TE	HOU	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Brayden Willis	TE	SF	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Nick Kallerup	TE	SEA	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Brady Russell	TE	SEA	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
E.J. Jenkins	TE	PHI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Cameron Latu	TE	PHI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jack Westover	TE	NE	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Nick Vannett	TE	LAR	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Marcedes Lewis	TE	DEN	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Stephen Carlson	TE	CHI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
James Cook	RB	BUF	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Travis Etienne	RB	JAX	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Kenneth Walker	RB	SEA	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Brittain Brown	RB	CHI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
George Holani	RB	SEA	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Brian Robinson	RB	SF	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Najee Harris	RB	LAC	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jaret Patterson	RB	LAC	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Antonio Gibson	RB	NE	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Terrell Jennings	RB	NE	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jacardia Wright	RB	SEA	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
LeQuint Allen	RB	JAX	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
AJ Dillon	RB	PHI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Dameon Pierce	RB	HOU	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Hassan Haskins	RB	LAC	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Roschon Johnson	RB	CHI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Velus Jones	RB	SEA	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Amar Johnson	RB	LAC	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
DeeJay Dallas	RB	JAX	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Myles Gaskin	RB	SEA	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
D'Ernest Johnson	RB	NE	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jordan James	RB	SF	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Trey Sermon	RB	PIT	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Deuce Vaughn	RB	DEN	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Nyheim Hines	RB	LAC	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Travis Homer	RB	CHI	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Trey Lance	QB	LAC	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Adrian Martinez	QB	SF	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Mason Rudolph	QB	PIT	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jarrett Stidham	QB	DEN	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jalen Milroe	QB	SEA	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Drew Lock	QB	SEA	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Nick Mullens	QB	JAX	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Andy Dalton	QB	CAR	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Adam Prentice	FB	DEN	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Scott Matlock	FB	LAC	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
British Brooks	FB	HOU	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Reggie Gilliam	FB	BUF	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Robbie Ouzts	FB	SEA	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jakob Johnson	FB	HOU	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	LAR	-0.2	-0.20	-0.17	-0.09	-0.06	-0.52

Our Methodology: Probability-Weighted Projections

To create accurate player projections, we analyzed the odds for each team to advance to each round of the playoffs. We could adjust player projections by assigning probabilities to each team’s path. Players on teams likely to make a deep playoff run have higher overall projections, while those on teams with lower probabilities of advancing beyond the Wild Card round see their values decrease.

Key Factors Considered:

Team Probabilities: The likelihood of a team advancing to each round based on current betting odds.
Player Performance: Season per-game fantasy points for each player.
Bye Weeks: Teams with a first-round bye (Denver and Seattle) potentially have fewer games but also a higher probability of advancing past the Divisional Round.
Matchup Adjustments: Factoring in potential matchups, which could influence player performance in each round.

The Impact of Bye Weeks

While teams with a first-round bye are more likely to win their first playoff game, they also have one fewer game to accumulate fantasy points. This makes bye-week players both high-risk and high-reward. For example, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle) and Courtland Sutton (Denver) are top-tier options, but their reduced total game count needs to be factored into your strategy.

Strategy for Building Your Playoffs Fantasy Team

Balance High-Probability and Long-Shot Players: While top-tier players from teams like Denver and Seattle are must-haves, adding players from underdog teams can provide a high upside if those teams make unexpected runs.
Stacking Players from the Same Team: In playoffs fantasy, stacking (selecting multiple players from the same team) can be a winning strategy. If your chosen team makes it to the Super Bowl, your lineup will crush. Again, this is a high-risk, high-reward strategy and may not be an option based on your league’s rules.
Diversify Your Roster: Avoid putting all your eggs in one basket. Select players from different teams to hedge against early eliminations. This may already be built into your rules if you can’t select more than a certain number of players from each team.
Consider Matchups: Look ahead at potential playoff matchups. Favor players whose teams have favorable paths to the Super Bowl or face a team that struggles against their particular skill set.

Playoffs fantasy football is a way to extend your fantasy football season that combines skill, strategy, and a bit of luck. By leveraging our probability-weighted projections and understanding the impact of bye weeks and potential matchups, you can build a lineup primed for success. Whether targeting top-tier stars or hunting for value among underdogs, the key is to stay flexible.

Good luck, and may your playoff fantasy team go the distance!

NFL Playoffs Fantasy Player Projections: Optimizing Lineups for Your League

Our Methodology: Probability-Weighted Projections

The Impact of Bye Weeks

Strategy for Building Your Playoffs Fantasy Team

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