If you are looking for an edge when handicapping the over/under in baseball games this season, you have come to the right spot.
This page takes a look at some MLB total systems that have proved to be profitable over an extended period of time.
We are constantly looking to find new systems and strategies for MLB totals and will continue to add to this page as we come across more profitable situations.
Situation #1 – Play UNDER in Game With Streaking Underdogs
Over the course of 162 games you will see bad teams play at a championship level for a stretch and elite teams play like cellar dwellers for a stretch.
There lies opportunity for the savvy bettor to cash in on some unlikely occurrences, and the tracks in history they have left behind.
For this system we focus on bad teams who are playing well. This is one of the easiest things to go back and find and has powerful results associated with it regarding totals propositions.
The key is to look for underdogs who have won their last 5 games all as underdogs.
Let’s face it, any team that is posted as an underdog for six straight games isn’t a very good team.
If you consider even odds, the chances of any team winning five straight games is just 3.1%.
When you consider five straight wins as an underdog, the chances are extremely slim (money line odds are all different so there is no exact equation to show these odds).
This system has gone 42-22-1 (63.2%) to the UNDER since 2014. Which brings home a nice ROI of 25.6%!
*Note that while this system is at it’s strongest using the criteria above, it’s also blindly profitable (53.6%) when you have a home team that is playing their 6th straight game as a dog and has won at least two straight.
Situation #2 – Play UNDER AL Games With Short Money Line and Total of 10+
This is a pretty simple under system that has profited long-term.
The first thing we want to look for is American League games in which you have a money line of +115 to -115 and total is 10 or more.
Next, we want to focus in on games two and three of a 3-game series , where the first game of the series went over the total.
The reason we use the American League, is because the perception is that these games are higher scoring due to the DH and odds makers tend to shade toward the over because of it.
We use odds of +115 to -115 to zero in on games that are expected to evenly matched.
We use a total of 10 or more to find a bias towards a high scoring game and add in the first game of a series having gone over to add to that bias, as the next games total is typically set a little higher.
Following this system the under has cashed 57.1% of the time over the last 10 seasons (108-81-9).
Do Umpires Impact MLB Totals?
If you have been betting baseball long enough, I’m sure it’s crossed your mind that the umpires play a significant role in whether a game goes over or under the total.
There’s plenty of sites out there that list the trends of different umpires behind the plate. While it’s not a bad idea to look at these when breaking down a game, I wouldn’t overreact to the results you see.
Over time most umpires will end up having close to a 50/50 split on the over/under for the games they call, so don’t be fooled by recent trends.
You need to see a big difference long-term before blindly backing a total based on the recent results of the guy behind the plate.
If you want to really use umpire tendencies to your advantage, you need to have a good understanding of what kind of strike zone that umpire has.
Umpires with a small strike zone will often lead to higher-scoring games, Small strike zones force pitchers to throw more pitches over the heart of the plate, which is an advantage for the hitters and can often times lead to more runs being scored.
On the flip side of this, umpires with a big strike zone benefit the under. A smaller strike zone greatly favors the pitcher, as hitters are forced to swing at pitches out of their comfort zone. However, you need to make sure that the starters for that game have the accuracy to take advantage of the big zone.
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