Closing Line Value: What CLV Is in Sports Betting & How to Beat It

If you’ve been around sports betting circles for a bit, you’ve probably heard someone mention closing line value, or CLV. It might sound like jargon, but it’s actually a simple concept that can tell you a lot about the quality of your bets.

In a nutshell, closing line value is a way to measure whether you got a better deal on your wager compared to where the line ended up when the game started. Understanding CLV is crucial for long-term betting success, and it’s something that all sharp (successful) bettors pay attention to.

Let’s break down what the closing line is, why CLV matters, how to track it, and what it can (and can’t) tell you about your betting performance.

What is the Closing Line (and Closing Line Value)?

The closing line is simply the final odds or point spread for a bet right before the game begins. Sportsbooks post an opening line (the initial odds), and then as bets come in and news breaks, the odds can shift.

By kickoff or tip-off, the line will have moved to reflect all that information and action. This final number is the closing line.

Closing Line Value (CLV) is essentially the difference between the odds you locked in and the closing odds. It tells you if you got a better price on your bet than the final market did, or a worse one.

For example, if you bet a team at -7 (seven-point favorite) early in the week and the line closes at -10, you’ve beaten the closing line by 3 points. That’s positive CLV – you got a much better number than everyone who bet at -10.

On the flip side, if the line closes at -5, you got a worse number (negative CLV), meaning the market moved against your bet.

In moneyline terms, say you snag an underdog at +150 and they close at +120 – your +150 is a better payout, so that’s good CLV.

CLV is basically a scorecard for how good your bet was relative to the final consensus odds.

Another way to think about it: positive CLV is like buying a stock at a discount and watching its price go up. You locked in value early.

Negative CLV is like buying and then seeing the price drop – not a great feeling.

In betting terms, positive CLV means you bet at odds that were more favorable than what the market ultimately thought was fair.

Why Closing Line Value Matters for Long-Term Profitability

Why do bettors care so much about CLV? Because consistently achieving positive CLV is strongly linked to making money in the long run.

The closing line is widely considered the most accurate estimate of a game’s true probabilities (especially in very liquid markets like NFL sides).

By the time a line closes, sportsbooks have incorporated all the available information, betting action, and “wisdom of the crowd” into that number. So if you can regularly beat that number, it means you’re spotting value that the rest of the market eventually catches up to.

In fact, beating the closing line is one of the best indicators of long-term betting success. It shows that you have an edge. If you keep betting at odds better than the closing odds, theoretically you’re betting on the “right side” of the value. Over a large number of bets, those little edges add up to profits.

Another way to see it: imagine the closing line on a coin flip is -110 on both sides (implying ~50% win probability each after vig). If you somehow got +100 (even money) earlier, you have an edge because you’re getting a 1:1 payout on what the market later said was a 50/50 proposition.

In general, placing bets at odds that are higher than their true probability (as indicated by the closing line) is how bettors make a profit. Over time, the ups and downs of luck even out, and the value you gained by beating the line should translate into positive results.

How Sharp Bettors Use CLV to Gauge Expected Value

Sharp bettors (the serious, winning bettors) obsess over closing line value. For them, CLV is like a report card on how good their bets were, regardless of individual wins or losses. They know that if they consistently get positive CLV, they’re making +EV (positive expected value) decisions, which means they’re likely to be profitable long-term.

On the other hand, if they frequently get negative CLV (the line moves against them), it’s a red flag that their reads might be off or that they’re overpaying (laying worse odds than the true odds), which will cost them money over time.

Professional bettors will often track the closing line for every bet they make. If you peek into a sharp bettor’s spreadsheet or betting log, you’ll likely see a column for closing line or CLV (See how to track your bets if you want help doing this yourself).

For example, a sharp might record “Bet Team A -3 (-110), Closing Line -4 (-110), CLV = +1” to indicate they beat the spread by 1 point. They might also track the percentage by which they beat moneyline odds (e.g. “I bet +150, closed +130, roughly a 20-cent or ~4% edge”).

This tracking helps them see if their betting strategy truly has an edge. If after hundreds of bets they’re regularly on the right side of the closing line, that validates their approach. If not, even a winning streak might just be luck.

Even sportsbooks pay attention to CLV. Bookmakers know that bettors who beat the closing number consistently are likely sharps. In fact, a former sportsbook trader revealed that consistently securing positive CLV is a key factor in whether a book decides to limit or ban a bettor. It’s basically a tip-off that the bettor might know what they’re doing.

So if you needed more proof that CLV matters, there it is – even the books watch it as a sign of sharp action.

Examples of Closing Line Value in Action

It might help to look at a couple of simple examples of CLV to see how it works in practice. Consider these scenarios:

Spread Example: Early in the week, the Dallas Cowboys are -7 (-110) favorites against the Philadelphia Eagles. You bet the Cowboys at -7. By kickoff, the closing line has moved to Cowboys -10 (-110). This means a lot of money or news came in on Dallas, driving the line up. Your bet is now 3 points better than the closing line. That’s excellent CLV – you got -7 when the market closed at -10. If the Cowboys end up winning by, say, 8 or 9 points, you win your bet (because you had -7), whereas someone who waited and laid -10 would lose. Even if the Cowboys don’t cover -7, you can feel confident you made a value bet because the market moved in your favor so strongly.
Opposite Side of the Line Move: Using the same game, say someone bet the Eagles at +7 early on. By game time the Eagles are +10. That bettor got +7 when they could have had +10 at the close – a bad deal. They have a negative CLV of 3 points. Even if that Eagles +7 ticket ends up cashing (maybe the Eagles lose by only 6), it was still a poor value bet in hindsight, because the market would have given +10. In the long run, taking worse numbers like that will catch up with you.
Moneyline Example: You place a bet on an underdog at +200 (2-to-1 odds) in the morning. By game time, a bunch of sharp action comes in on that dog and the closing moneyline odds are +150. Your +200 was far better – you’d win $200 on a $100 bet, whereas late bettors only get $150 on a $100 bet for the same team. This is positive CLV in terms of payout value. You effectively locked in a higher reward for the same risk. If you keep grabbing underdogs at +200 that close much lower like +150, you’re likely finding really good bets. Conversely, if you bet +150 and the line drifts to +200 by close, you’ve lost CLV (and probably bet a side that the market didn’t love).

These examples show that closing line value is all about where you stand relative to the final line. A good rule of thumb: if you consistently could say “I’d beat the number that the game closed at,” you’re doing something right. If you often find that you could have gotten a much better line by waiting, or the line moved against your bets, that’s something to examine in your betting strategy.

What Counts as “Good” CLV? (Benchmarks for Beating the Line)

Beating the closing line isn’t all-or-nothing; it’s something that can happen to varying degrees and frequencies. So, what’s a good benchmark for CLV, or for how often you should beat the closing line? No magic number works for everyone, but here are some general guidelines:

Around 50% of the time or less: If you’re beating the closing line on only half (or fewer) of your bets, that’s basically break-even or worse. Random chance might get you around 50%. In fact, one bettor quipped that most people will hover near 50% long-term by luck. Beating the line half the time isn’t likely enough to overcome the bookmaker’s vig. It implies you have no real edge (and you might be losing money after the juice).
Above 50% (say 55-60% of your bets): This starts to look promising and likely profitable. If you can beat the closing line on significantly more than half your wagers, it’s a strong sign you have an advantage. Many sharp bettors aim for this kind of range or higher. Beating the line ~60% of the time, especially by meaningful margins, typically correlates with positive returns.
Around 70% or more: This is excellent/elite territory. Some very sharp bettors report beating the closing number 70%+ of the time. Hitting this level consistently usually means you’re identifying value early (often betting into softer opening lines) and the market is moving your way almost every time. Keep in mind, hitting 70% or 80% doesn’t mean you’re winning 70-80% of your bets (that would be astronomically good); it means even on bets that might lose, you still often got a better number than the closing line. Consistently being on the right side of the line that frequently is a sign of a very sharp bettor.

A key point: It’s not necessary to beat the closing line on every single bet. No one does that. The goal is to do it more often than not, and by a significant enough margin over time that your edge over the sportsbook translates into profit.

Even the pros will occasionally see a line move against them. What you want is a solid track record that, overall, your bets “beat the closing price” a respectable majority of the time. The higher the better, but even anything above ~55% is a strong indicator that you’re onto something good.

How to Track Your CLV (Manually or With a Tracker)

To find out how you’re doing on closing line value, you’ll need to track it. Fortunately, you can do this pretty easily with a spreadsheet or a betting tracker app. Here’s a simple way to track CLV for your bets:

Record Your Bet Details: Whenever you place a bet, note the important details in a spreadsheet (or whatever tracking tool you use). Key things to log: the date, the game/match, what you bet (side or total, etc.), the odds or point spread you bet at, and the stake (how much you bet).
Get the Closing Line: After the game starts (or just before it starts), find out what the closing odds/line were for your bet. You can usually see this on your sportsbook (many show the closing line in the matchup details) or on odds portals. Ideally, use a sharp book’s closing line (many bettors like to use Pinnacle’s closing odds as a benchmark, since it’s known for efficiency). Record the closing line next to your bet.
Calculate the Difference: Now note whether your bet beat the closing line or not. For point spreads or totals, you can simply see the difference in points (e.g., you took +5, closing line was +3, you beat it by 2 points). For moneylines, you might calculate the difference in “cents” (e.g., you got +150 and it closed +130, that’s a 20-cent better price). You can even convert odds to implied probabilities and compare those. For example, if you bet +150 (implied win probability ~40%) and it closed +130 (implied ~43%), you got about a 3% edge in implied probability. Some online calculators can help convert odds to implied probability and even remove the bookmaker’s vig to get a clearer picture. But if that’s too technical, just noting the raw difference is fine for a start.
Track CLV Over Time: Do this for every bet. After enough bets, calculate how often you had positive CLV (your odds were better than closing) versus negative CLV. Also, note the average amount of CLV. For instance, maybe you beat the line on 60% of bets, with an average improvement of +0.5 points on spreads or +10 cents on moneylines. This gives you a sense of your overall edge. If you want to be thorough, you might calculate a CLV% for each bet (which could be something like: (Closing implied win probability / Your bet’s implied win probability) – 1, expressed as a percentage). But that’s an advanced metric. The main idea is to see a pattern.
Analyze the Patterns: Check if there are certain sports or bet types where you consistently beat the line and others where you don’t. For example, you might find you have great CLV in NFL totals but not so much in NBA spreads. This can inform where your strengths (or weaknesses) are as a bettor. If you notice that you rarely beat the closing line at all, that’s a sign to adjust your strategy – maybe look for bets earlier, do more research, or be more selective. If you are beating it consistently, keep it up and understand that you’re on the right track.

Some tools and apps can help track CLV automatically. Some bet tracking apps will show the closing line for your wagers and even give you a summary of your CLV over time. Whether you use an app or do it yourself, the goal is the same: keep an eye on that metric as you would your win-loss record, because it’s arguably just as important for evaluating your betting performance.

Tips for Beating the Closing Line

By now you might be wondering, “So how do I actually beat the closing line more often?” While there’s no surefire formula (sports betting is hard!), there are a few strategies that many sharp bettors use to improve their CLV:

Place Bets Early (Timing is Key): In many cases, the best opportunities to beat the line are when odds first come out. Early lines can be softer or not fully adjusted for the latest info. By betting earlier in the week (for football) or early in the day (for daily sports), you can grab a good number before the rest of the market reacts. Lines tend to sharpen as the event gets closer and more money comes in. If you have a good read on a game, betting early can snag you closing line value as the odds move later. (Note: The exception is if you intentionally want to bet late because you expect the line to move against a popular side – but in general, earlier is better for CLV.)
Line Shop for the Best Odds: This is a simple yet crucial tip – always shop around for the best line available before you place a bet. Different sportsbooks might have slightly different odds or spreads. Getting an extra half-point or a slightly better payout might be the difference between beating the closing line or not. For example, if most books have a team at +6.5 but one book has +7, taking +7 gives you a higher chance to beat the closing line if it comes off 7 later. Over time, consistently grabbing the best number available will improve your CLV and your bottom line. It’s like finding a gas station that’s 50 cents cheaper – why pay more if you don’t have to? Always remember, price is king in sports betting.
Stay Informed (Research): Often, line moves are driven by news (injuries, weather, lineup changes) or sharp action. If you’re on top of news and have a good sense of how a piece of information might affect the odds, you can beat the move. For instance, if you hear a star player might sit out and you act before the books fully adjust, you’ll beat the closing line for sure. Even aside from breaking news, doing thorough handicapping (analyzing matchups, stats, etc.) can help you identify when a line is likely to move. Essentially, if you can predict how the market will react better than others, you’ll gain CLV. As one strategy article noted, understanding nuances from player news to weather can give you a leg up in anticipating odds shifts.
Understand the Market (Know the Sharps): This one’s a bit advanced, but it’s useful. Try to gauge where “sharp money” might be going. If you have a feeling that professional bettors (or betting syndicates) are going to hammer a certain side, you might want to bet that side early before they push the line up. On the other hand, if you like the opposite side of what the sharps are likely to bet, you might wait until later, after the line moves, to get a better number. In short: don’t chase steam (don’t bet after the line has already moved, you’ll be too late on CLV), but rather aim to be ahead of it. This comes with experience and following betting markets closely.

Keep in mind that even using these tips, consistently beating the closing line is tough. The betting market is quite efficient, and it’s not easy to be ahead of the curve. But employing these practices – timing your bets well, grabbing the best odds, and staying informed – will tilt the odds a bit more in your favor. Over many bets, those small edges compound into a bigger edge.

Common Misconceptions About CLV

Before we wrap up, let’s address a few misconceptions and important points about closing line value:

“If I have CLV, I’ll win my bet.” – Not necessarily! CLV is not a guarantee of winning any single wager. You can beat the closing line by a wide margin and still lose the bet. For example, you bet a team at -3 and it closes -6 (great CLV), but they might still lose the game outright or win by only 1. That doesn’t mean your CLV was “wrong” – it was a good bet that just didn’t win this time. In the short run, anything can happen due to variance (luck). Think of it this way: CLV is about making good bets, not about ensuring wins every time. Over a big sample, those good bets should win more often, but in a small sample, you’ll have plenty of CLV-positive bets that lose (and occasionally CLV-negative bets that win).
“CLV doesn’t matter if I’m picking winners.” – There’s a dangerous trap in that thinking. Sure, you might have a hot streak where you win bets despite the line moving against you. But if you’re consistently getting negative CLV and still winning, it almost certainly won’t last. A bettor’s short-term record can fool them into thinking they have skill when it might just be luck. CLV is a more reliable indicator. As one expert put it, if you’re not getting +CLV yet somehow are winning 60% of your bets in the short term, 99% of the time your results will regress and you’ll start losing money as the luck evens out. In contrast, if you’re getting good CLV but have a rough stretch of losses, trust the process – the odds are you will turn a profit in the long run by continuing to find value. The bottom line: don’t dismiss CLV just because “I’ve been winning without it.” Long-term winners almost universally have positive CLV on their bets.
“The closing line is always right.” – The closing line is the best estimate of the true odds on average, but it’s not infallible in every single game. Upsets happen, and sometimes the market doesn’t predict exactly what will happen on the field (if it did, betting would be boring!). So, a huge underdog can have a negative CLV (say it went from +500 to +600) and still win the game outright – but that’s an upset against the odds. The key point is, if you had +CLV on that underdog, you were on the side of value even if they lost; if you had -CLV but got lucky with a win, you still made a poor value bet. Over many bets, you want to be on the value side more often because that’s where probability is in your favor. The closing line isn’t a crystal ball for results, but it’s the gold standard benchmark for judging value in your wagers.
“I only care about wins and losses, not some theoretical value.” – It’s natural to care about cashing tickets; after all, that’s how you make money. But CLV isn’t just some nerdy number to ignore – it’s a tool for self-evaluation. Think of it like a golfer checking their swing consistency, not just their score. If you only focus on short-term wins/losses, you might miss the fact that maybe you’re hitting lots of lucky long shots (that will eventually miss), or conversely you’re on a cold streak but making good decisions that will pay off. In the long haul, treating CLV as seriously as your win-loss record can help you stay disciplined and confident in your strategy. It can prevent you from chasing losses or abandoning a good system just because of a few unlucky outcomes.

In summary, closing line value is one of the most important concepts in sports betting for anyone who aspires to profit over the long term. It encapsulates the idea of getting the best of the numbers and having the odds in your favor. Smart bettors treat it like the North Star of their betting strategy – if they consistently have positive CLV, they know they’re on the right path.

It’s not always easy to beat the closing line, but by understanding what it is, why it matters, and how to track it, you put yourself in a position to make smarter bets. Always remember: you can’t control the outcome of a single game, but you can control the quality of the bets you place.

Chasing closing line value is all about ensuring that quality is high. If you do that, the profits should follow.

Good luck, and may you always be one step ahead of the closing line!

What Is Closing Line Value (CLV) in Sports Betting?