What is Hedging a Sports Bet & When to Do It

Imagine you’re one game away from winning a huge parlay, or your long-shot futures bet just made the championship game.

You’re thrilled – but also a bit nervous.

What if things go wrong and you walk away with nothing?

This is where hedging comes into play.

Hedging in sports betting lets you secure some winnings or cut your losses by betting against your original wager.

It’s a strategy many bettors use for peace of mind, while others avoid it to maximize their potential payout.

In this guide, we’ll break down exactly what hedging is, give real-world examples (from parlays to live games), explain the math behind it, and discuss the pros, cons, and common scenarios so you can decide when to hedge a bet and when to let it ride.

What Is Hedging in Sports Betting?

Hedging is a sports betting strategy where you place an additional bet on the opposite outcome of your original wager in order to guarantee a profit or at least minimize a loss.

In simple terms, it’s like buying insurance for your bet – you’re covering your bases so that no matter who wins, you win something.

The trade-off is that by hedging, you usually give up a portion of your potential maximum profit in exchange for reducing risk.

For example, if you placed a bet on Team A to win a championship and they’ve advanced to the final, you might place a hedge bet on Team B (the opponent in the final).

By doing so, you ensure that whether Team A wins or loses, you won’t walk away empty-handed.

Hedging is common with futures bets and parlays, especially when your original bet’s odds have significantly improved and you have a lot of potential money at stake.

Think of it this way: hedging a bet is all about risk management.

Just as an investor might hedge a stock position to protect against market swings, a sports bettor hedges to lock in profit or avoid a worst-case scenario.

Some sportsbooks even offer a “cash out” option (an automatic hedge), which lets you settle your bet early for a guaranteed amount – though often at a cost to your expected value (the cash-out offer usually favors the book).

Real-World Examples of Hedging Strategies

Let’s look at three common hedging situations sports bettors encounter: futures bets, parlays, and in-game (live) bets. Each scenario shows a different way hedging can be used to manage risk and secure a sure outcome.

Hedging a Futures Bet (Locking in Profit on a Big Bet)

Suppose before the season you bet $100 on an underdog (let’s say Team X) to win the championship at +1000 odds (10-to-1).

If Team X defies the odds and reaches the championship game, your original bet would pay out $1,000 in profit if they win.

At this point, that futures ticket is extremely valuable and likely favored to win.

You have two options: let it ride and hope Team X wins it all, or hedge by betting on the other side.

If you decide to hedge, you could bet on Team X’s opponent in the final (effectively betting that Team X will not win).

For instance, imagine the opponent is now favored at -250 odds (meaning you must risk $250 to win $100).

You could place a $250 hedge bet on the opponent.

Here’s how the outcomes would shake out:

If Team X wins the championship: Your original bet nets you $1,000. However, your $250 hedge bet loses. Your overall profit is $1,000 – $250 = $750.
If Team X loses in the final: Your original $100 bet is a loss, but your hedge bet wins $100 (since $250 at -250 returns $100 profit). That $100 profit from the hedge basically covers your original stake, so you roughly break even.

In this example, hedging guarantees that you won’t lose money no matter what.

You either walk away with $750 profit or about $0 (your $100 loss is offset by the $100 hedge win).

You’ve sacrificed some upside (you gave up an extra $250 of potential profit) in order to eliminate the risk of losing your entire $100.

Key point: You can adjust the hedge amount based on your goals.

If you wanted to guarantee some profit no matter what, you could bet even more on the opponent to ensure a positive return in both scenarios.

Conversely, you might hedge just a smaller amount so that you still win more if Team X wins, but at least recover something if they lose.

Hedging a big futures ticket is common when the potential payout is life-changing money or simply more than you’re comfortable risking on one game.

Hedging a Parlay Bet (Securing a Payout on the Last Leg)

Hedging isn’t just for futures – it’s very popular with parlays, especially when you get down to the final leg of a multi-team parlay.

Say you put down $10 on a 4-team parlay at 10-to-1 odds.

If all four picks win, you’d profit $100 (and get back $110 total, including your stake).

Now imagine the first 3 teams have won and only the last game remains.

You stand to turn $10 into $110 if the last leg hits – a nice 10x payout.

But if the last game loses, your whole parlay returns $0.

This is a perfect spot to consider hedging.

By placing a hedge bet against your final pick, you can guarantee a payout regardless of what happens in that last game.

Here’s an example:

Your final parlay leg is on the Ravens +3.5 (underdog) in the last game of the night. To hedge, you could bet on the opposite side: for instance, put $55 to win $50 on the Steelers -3.5.
If the Ravens cover (i.e. they win or lose by 3 or less): Fantastic, you win your parlay for $100 profit. After subtracting the $55 lost on your hedge, you still come out with $45 net profit (and your initial $10 stake is returned as part of the parlay win).
If the Ravens fail to cover (Steelers cover the spread): Your parlay loses, but your hedge bet on the Steelers wins $50. After accounting for the lost $10 parlay stake, you end up with $40 net profit from the hedge.

In this scenario, instead of either winning $100 or $0, you’ve ensured yourself a profit in the $40-$45 range no matter what.

You traded the chance at the full $100 payday for a guaranteed smaller win.

Many bettors happily make that trade-off once they’re one game away from a parlay payout.

However, remember that hedging parlays will dampen your long-term winnings if you do it routinely.

By hedging, you’re essentially paying the sportsbook’s juice a second time on that final game.

Over many parlays, those extra costs and the cap on your wins can add up.

One analysis showed that if a bettor hedged every time they reached the last leg of a parlay, their total profits would end up lower than if they simply let all those parlays ride (assuming they had an edge on their picks).

In fact, in that analysis the hedger netted about $425 from a series of parlays versus $450 net for the non-hedger, despite both hitting the same number of parlays overall.

The bottom line: hedging guarantees a return, but it can prevent you from maximizing your profit when you have the advantage.

We’ll discuss more on the pros and cons shortly.

Partial hedges: Keep in mind you don’t always have to hedge for the full amount to guarantee a profit.

Some bettors choose to hedge partially.

For example, maybe you bet enough on the Steelers in the scenario above to guarantee you at least break even, but still make more if the parlay wins.

Partial hedging can be a middle-ground if you want to reduce risk but not give up all of your upside.

Live In-Game Hedging (Reacting to Momentum or Injury)

The growth of live betting (in-play wagering) has opened up even more opportunities to hedge during a game.

Odds can swing rapidly after the game starts due to momentum shifts, injuries, or other factors.

If you have a bet on a game and things start to change in a way that favors your bet (or undermines it), you might consider a live hedge.

Example 1: Locking in profit during a game.

You bet $100 on an underdog at +200 odds pre-game (to win $200 profit).

They come out strong and take an early lead.

Midway through the game, the live odds now favor that underdog – in fact, the other side is now an underdog at, say, +150 live odds.

You could hedge by putting a live bet on the other team at +150.

By doing so, you ensure that even if your original underdog collapses and loses, your live bet on the other team will pay out.

Essentially, you’ve guaranteed yourself some profit by capitalizing on the swing in odds.

Example 2: Hedging after an injury or bad start.

You placed a bet on Team A, but in the first quarter their star player gets injured and the team looks lost.

You’re no longer confident in that bet.

Using live lines, you might bet on Team B (the other side) to cut your potential losses.

This way, if Team A ends up losing (as you now suspect they might), your live bet on Team B will soften the blow.

And if Team A somehow still wins, your original bet cashes (while the hedge loses) – you won’t profit as much as if you never hedged, but you protected yourself from the worst-case scenario.

Halftime hedging: A common time to hedge in-game is at halftime.

Sportsbooks offer halftime lines, which let you bet on the second half of the game.

If your original bet is winning big at halftime, you might take the other team on the second-half line as a hedge (possibly creating a middle opportunity where you could win both bets).

For instance, if your team was a +14 underdog and is leading by 11 at halftime, the other side might be -10 on the second-half line.

Betting the favorite on the second-half line in this case could guarantee you at least win one of your bets, and there’s a chance the final margin lands in the middle (your team still covers +14, while the other team wins the second half by more than 10) letting you win both bets.

This is an advanced form of hedging (often called middling), but it highlights the creative ways in-play wagering can be used for risk management.

The major advantage of live hedging is flexibility – you can watch the game flow and decide if a hedge makes sense as the situation unfolds.

If your original bet is cruising to an easy win, you might not hedge at all.

If the game is tight or circumstances changed unfavorably, a live hedge can be a smart move to secure a sure outcome.

Just remember that live odds often come with higher juice and can change quickly, so if you choose to hedge live, act swiftly and ensure you’re getting reasonable odds.

How to Calculate a Hedge (And Determine if It Makes Financial Sense)

Hedging effectively often comes down to doing a little math. You’ll want to calculate how much to wager on the hedge and consider the expected value tradeoff of making that hedge bet.

Determining the Hedge Amount

To figure out how much to hedge, ask yourself: What outcome do I want to guarantee, and what outcome am I okay giving up?

Some bettors aim to guarantee the same profit no matter what; others aim to break even at worst, or just trim their exposure.

A straightforward approach to guarantee at least a break-even: Hedge enough to cover your original stake. For example, in the futures scenario with Team X, we bet $250 at -250 to win $100, which covered our $100 original bet if Team X lost. In general, you can calculate the hedge amount by dividing your potential profit by the current odds of the opposite side (in decimal form). If your potential profit on the original bet is $P and the opposing team’s live decimal odds are O, a hedge of $P/O will roughly win $P if the hedge wins.
If you want to guarantee equal profit on both sides, you’d hedge a bit more. In the parlay example, we chose a hedge ($55 to win $50) that yielded slightly different outcomes ($45 vs $40). We could have tweaked that amount to try to make both outcomes exactly equal, if we wanted to lock in the same profit regardless of the winner.

Many online hedge calculators (including one here at BoydsBets) can do this math for you and tell you the optimal hedge bet for a desired outcome.

These tools will compute how much you need to put on the other side to either break even or lock in a specified profit.

Weighing the Expected Value (EV)

The big question: Should you hedge at all?

From a pure expected value standpoint, hedging often is not the optimal play unless the hedge bet itself has positive expected value.

Remember, when you place a hedge, you are essentially placing a new bet (usually at worse odds than your original bet’s odds were).

You’ll be paying the vig again on that hedge bet, which tilts the math in the sportsbook’s favor.

If your original bet is still a good bet (meaning if you were offered it fresh at that point, you’d take it because you believe it has value), hedging can actually cut into your long-term profits.

The parlay analysis we mentioned is a good example: by hedging every time, the bettor gave up some of their edge and made less money overall.

However, expected value isn’t the only consideration.

Risk and personal comfort matter too.

If the amount of money on the line is large relative to your bankroll or risk tolerance, securing a sure profit can be perfectly reasonable even if it’s not mathematically “optimal” in terms of EV.

For many recreational bettors, locking in a win – or avoiding a big loss – is worth sacrificing some expected value.

Here’s how you might think it through: compare the scenarios of hedging vs. not hedging in terms of risk-reward:

No Hedge: You either win a big amount or win nothing/lose your stake. High risk, high reward. What’s the probability of each outcome, and are you comfortable with the “all or nothing” nature of it?
Hedge: You guarantee something now (or at least reduce the potential loss), but you’ll win less if your original bet hits. Lower risk, guaranteed moderate reward. Are you okay giving up the maximum payoff for more certainty?

If the “sure thing” profit from hedging feels more valuable to you than the chance at a bigger payday (especially if that payday is unlikely or if losing would really sting), then hedging makes sense.

On the flip side, if you consistently made smart bets for a reason and you want to maximize your winnings when you’re right, you might lean towards not hedging most of the time.

Expected value check: One way to decide is to assess whether the hedge bet itself is reasonably priced or if it’s too costly.

For example, in our earlier Kansas example, the hedge was -250 odds.

If you believed that at that point Kansas had more than a 28.6% chance to win the title (the implied probability of +250 for “not Kansas”), then hedging at -250 might actually be giving up value.

If you thought the other teams were actually very likely to beat Kansas (say 80-90% chance among them), then hedging could be a good deal.

Essentially, treat the hedge like any other bet: if the odds are fair or in your favor, it’s easier to justify hedging; if the odds are heavily in the book’s favor, you’re paying a premium to reduce your risk.

Pros and Cons of Hedging Your Bets

Hedging is neither universally good nor bad – it’s a tool.

Here are some key advantages and disadvantages of hedging in sports betting:

Pros of Hedging:

Guaranteed Profit or Loss Reduction: The biggest advantage is obvious – you can lock in a sure profit or cut down a potential loss. Hedging can ensure you don’t walk away empty-handed after being one step from a win.
Reduced Risk and Variance: Hedging lowers the volatility of your betting outcome. By taking some money off the table, you won’t experience the full swing of a win-or-lose scenario. This can protect your bankroll from big hits.
Peace of Mind: For many, hedging is about stress reduction. It’s easier to enjoy that big game knowing you’ve already secured something, instead of sweating out a huge all-or-nothing result.
Flexibility: Especially with live betting, hedging gives you strategic options. You can react to new information (like injuries or weather or just a gut feeling mid-game) and adjust your position.

Cons of Hedging:

Reduced Maximum Winnings: When you hedge, you are capping your upside. You won’t win as much as you could have if you let the original bet ride and it won. Over time, if you always hedge, you might be surprised how much potential profit you leave on the table.
Additional Cost (The “Double Vig”): Placing an extra bet means you’re paying the sportsbook’s commission twice. This can eat into your profits. If your hedge bet is at worse odds (and it often will be, especially if your original bet was a longshot that’s now looking likely), the price of hedging can be significant. In short, sportsbooks make money off hedges, so be mindful of the cost.
Requires Extra Capital: You need enough money in your bankroll to actually place the hedge bet. If most of your funds are tied up, you might not be able to hedge even if you want to. And if you do hedge, you might have a lot of money temporarily tied up on both sides of a game.
Potential to Hedge Too Much or Unnecessarily: Some bettors get trigger-happy with hedging, doing it at every opportunity even when it’s not optimal. Hedging out of fear or without a sound reason (for example, hedging a bet that isn’t actually that impactful to your bankroll) can actually hurt your results. It’s possible to “over-hedge” and essentially undo all the good bets you’ve made, ending up with very slim profits.
Complexity and Timing: Figuring out the perfect hedge amount and timing can be tricky. If you hedge too early, you might miss out on better opportunities (like a more favorable line later). And calculating hedges, especially on parlays or futures with multiple outcomes, can get complicated for newcomers.

In summary, hedging offers safety at a price. It provides insurance for your bets at the cost of some expected value and potential profit.

When Is Hedging a Smart Move (and When Is It a Mistake)?

Because hedging has trade-offs, it’s important to know when it actually makes sense to hedge versus when you’re better off holding your position.

Here are some guidelines and scenarios:

When it’s smart to hedge:

Huge Potential Payout at Stake: If your bet has ballooned into a massive potential win (especially from a small stake), strongly consider hedging. For example, if you have a $10 bet to win $2,000 on a long shot and it’s one game away from cashing, taking a hedge to ensure a solid profit is often wise. The upside you’re giving up (part of that $2,000) might be worth less to you than the guaranteed money (say a few hundred or more) you could lock in by hedging.
Guaranteed Profit Available (Arbitrage Opportunity): Sometimes odds move so much in your favor that you can bet the other side and guarantee profit with no risk at all. If you ever find this scenario, it’s almost always smart to hedge because you’re literally getting free money (this is essentially arbitrage). Always double-check the math and account for any vig, but if it checks out, take the sure profit.
Bankroll Protection / Risk Management: If winning or losing the bet would have a major impact on your bankroll (or personal finances), hedging can be a prudent move. For instance, if you stood to win an amount that’s nice but not life-changing, you might let it ride; but if losing could significantly set you back, hedging to secure some money or avoid a big loss can be the smarter long-term play.
Changed Circumstances: New information can change your confidence in a bet. If a key player is injured, weather conditions turn extreme, or you simply reevaluate and don’t like your original bet as much anymore, hedging can correct course. Essentially, you’re saying “I wouldn’t place this bet in the current situation, so I’ll hedge some or all of it away.”
Emotional Comfort: This is personal, but if having something locked in will let you sleep easier or enjoy the game more, go for it. Betting is supposed to be fun (especially for recreational bettors), and there’s nothing wrong with taking a sure win to avoid stress. Just be aware of the cost of that comfort.

When hedging can be a mistake:

Small Edge, Small Stakes: If your potential win isn’t huge and you believed in your bet for good reason, hedging might just be throwing away money. For a modest parlay or a single-game bet, often it’s best to let it ride unless you have a solid reason to hedge. As the saying goes, “If you liked the bet in the first place, why bet against yourself now?”
Negative Expected Value Hedge: If the only way to hedge requires taking a bad line (for example, hedging on a heavily juiced line that’s way off fair value), you’re paying a steep price. Unless the situation is dire, taking a bad-value hedge is usually not worth it. Many experienced bettors would rather not hedge than take a bet they know is -EV just to feel safe.
When It Contradicts Your Strategy: Some bettors have a philosophy: either always hedge at a certain point or never hedge at all. If you find that hedging doesn’t align with your overarching strategy (for instance, you’re a value bettor who only wants to place +EV bets, or you’re following a system that relies on letting winning bets run), then hedging on a whim could undermine your approach.
Lack of Funds or Overextending: If hedging requires you to lay out more money than you’re comfortable with (or can afford), that’s a red flag. Don’t stretch your bankroll thin or put yourself in a position of heavy exposure on multiple bets unless you’re sure you can handle it. It’s okay to not hedge if hedging itself would create financial strain.
Hedging Out of Panic: If you’re only considering hedging because you’re scared to lose or second-guessing out of nerves, pause and assess objectively. Making decisions purely out of fear is a common pitfall. Ideally, your hedge should be a calculated choice, not an emotional reaction.

A good rule of thumb is to evaluate hedging on a case-by-case basis. Consider your risk tolerance, the value of the bet, and the specific circumstances. If the numbers make sense or the situation warrants it, hedge away. If not, you might be better off sticking to your guns.

Why Some Bettors Never Hedge (and Others Hedge Often)

Bettors are divided on hedging.

You’ll hear some seasoned gamblers say, “Hedging is for gardeners,” implying that a real bettor should stick with their original bet and ride it out.

On the flip side, others will hedge at the drop of a dime to ensure they don’t lose a profit they’ve tasted.

What’s behind these two mindsets?

The “never hedge” camp: These are often the value-driven or professional bettors.

Their logic is straightforward: if you placed a bet because you thought it was a good value, then betting the opposite side later means one of your bets was probably a bad value.

In essence, hedging locks in a profit at the cost of potential value you could have gained by letting your bet win.

As we discussed, hedging frequently can chip away at your long-term profits.

Bettors in this camp are playing the long game.

They’re willing to take some losses on the chin in exchange for maximizing their wins when they hit.

They might also simply have the bankroll and temperament to handle the swings.

For them, hedging feels like selling yourself short.

Why settle for $500 guaranteed when you could win $1,000 if you believe your original bet is still a winner?

The “always hedge” camp: This tends to be risk-averse or recreational bettors.

Their priority is preserving gains.

They derive more joy from securing a sure profit than from the gamble of a bigger win with a chance of getting nothing.

And that’s completely fine – everyone bets for different reasons.

Bettors in this group might have had painful experiences of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and they don’t want to relive that.

If a hedge guarantees them a positive outcome, it’s very tempting.

Some also treat hedging as a routine part of their betting strategy, almost like an automatic bankroll management tool.

They might say, “If I can guarantee a win, why wouldn’t I?”

Even some pros will hedge in specific spots, especially if the stakes are unusually high for them or if external factors (like life-changing money or investor syndicates, etc.) come into play.

Finding your balance: In truth, you don’t have to be 100% in either camp.

Many bettors hedge selectively.

It might depend on the situation – hedge when the stakes are high or you’re unsure, but let it ride when you’re confident and the dollars are manageable.

There’s no universal right answer.

As one betting guide wisely noted, there is no right or wrong approach on hedging if you have a long-term game plan that suits you.

The key is to make conscious decisions.

Know why you’re hedging or why you’re not.

Over time, you’ll get a feel for what approach aligns with your goals and comfort level.

Common Hedging Scenarios and How to Think Through Them

Let’s walk through a few everyday scenarios a bettor might face and consider the hedging decision in each:

Big Parlay, Last Leg Jitters: You placed a multi-team parlay and all but one leg have won. The last game is coming up, and if it hits, you win a nice sum. Do you hedge? Ask yourself how much the parlay win means to you versus how much a smaller guaranteed win would mean. If it’s a modest payout and you’re okay losing the stake, you might let it roll. If it’s a sizable payout (or if it was a long shot to begin with), taking a hedge on the final game can ensure the parlay run wasn’t for nothing. You can hedge enough to guarantee a profit or just cover your initial stake. Consider: Would you be more upset if you hedged and then your parlay wins (thus missing out on extra profit), or if you don’t hedge and the last leg loses (yielding nothing)? Your emotional answer to that can guide you.
Futures Bet Miracle Run: You have a ticket for a team to win the title at huge odds (maybe a preseason bet on an underdog) and now they’re in the finals. This is the classic hedge scenario. Do you let it ride for a possible jackpot, or hedge to lock in a sure windfall? Here, think about the dollar amounts. If a win would be life-changing or significantly boost your bankroll, consider hedging at least partially – it’s a chance to secure a profit that you might not get again. Also consider the matchup: is your team an underdog or favorite in the final? If they’re an underdog, hedging on the favored opponent might not cost you as much potential profit since your team isn’t expected to win anyway. If your team is favored, you might already be in a strong position – maybe hedge just enough to ensure you don’t come out negative. Pro tip: Some bettors in this spot hedge in stages – for example, hedge enough to cover your stake when the team makes the Final Four, then more when they make the final, etc., gradually locking in profit while still keeping some upside as long as the team keeps advancing.
Live Bet Swing / In-Game Hedge: You bet Team A pregame, and they jump to a big lead, making a win likely. Do you hedge live on Team B? If the live odds now make Team B a juicy pick (say Team B is +500 live), a small hedge could yield a decent win if Team A collapses, without sacrificing much of your original bet’s upside. On the other hand, if Team A is dominating and you’re confident, you may skip hedging and just enjoy the likely win. Alternatively, maybe your bet is in trouble (Team A is down big early). Do you double down or hedge out? This depends on whether you think the live odds overreacted or if you’ve lost faith. Hedging when you’re pretty sure your original bet is a loser can save you some money – but often live hedging in this case is just cutting losses. Some would argue it’s better to accept the original bet might lose and not throw good money after bad. Consider: Only hedge here if the live odds offer value or you have a strong reason – otherwise, you’re essentially betting on the opposite side without an edge.
Accidental or “Bad” Pre-Game Bet: Maybe you rushed a bet and immediately regret it, or new info (like a star player sitting) comes out after you placed it. Hedging (or fully “free-rolling” by betting the opposite) can bail you out of a bad position. For instance, you bet the over on a basketball game, then two key scorers are announced out – the total is likely to drop and you hate that over bet now. You might quickly bet the under (maybe even for a bit more) to offset it. In this scenario, you’re not so much locking a profit as stopping the bleeding and accepting a smaller loss or a push. Many bettors do this as a damage control mechanism. Just be careful – chasing mistakes can also lead to worse outcomes if not done thoughtfully.

In all these situations, the thought process should include: How much do I stand to win or lose?

Can I tolerate the loss if I don’t hedge?

Do I have a good reason to believe hedging will improve my outcome (or is it just my nerves talking)?

And importantly, will I be content with the decision afterward, no matter the result?

If hedging will save you from beating yourself up later, that’s a valid consideration.

Hedging in sports betting is ultimately about personal preference and situational judgment.

It’s a balancing act between playing it safe and going for the big score.

By understanding how hedging works, using the math to your advantage, and being mindful of your own risk tolerance, you can make the choice that’s right for you on any given bet.

Whether you choose to hedge or not, the goal is to make that decision an informed one – and hopefully, to enjoy the game knowing you’ve got a strategy for either outcome.

What is Hedging in Sports Betting