The sports betting industry has evolved over the years. Just about every sportsbook is offering live, in-game betting odds. This includes halftime lines, and more exotic bets like parlays and teasers.
A wise gambler once told me, any exotic bet offered by a sportsbook is a suckers bet. If you think about it, the sportsbooks are not getting even action on those exotic wagers.
They offer them because more people lose than they win. Bettors are still predominately taking the spread when they put in a wager.
While that’s fine, they should also be looking at halftime line as a means of locking in profit? There is a lot of value betting on NFL halftime lines and I am going to help you take advantage.
How to Hedge Your Original Bet by Middling NFL Halftime Lines
Here is an example of how betting on halftime lines can be extremely profitable. Lets say you take the Chiefs as a 14-point underdog against the Patriots, and they head into the half with a 24-13 lead. The sportsbooks post a second half line of New England favored by 10-points.
Your initial bet looks great. However, sticking with the Chiefs isn’t the smartest move you can make. If you take the Patriots as a 10-point favorite the worst thing that can happen is you lose the vig on one of your bets.
By going against your original wager and taking New England. You have created a middling option where you can win both of your bets. For this to happen, we need the Patriots to win the 2nd half by 11 or more points but fewer than 25. This way we still cover our original wager of +14.
Want an even bigger window in which you can middle and win both bets? Then take a look at our NFL teaser strategy guide. You’ll see great numbers in which to take teams and get an additional 6, 7, or 10 points. If that team gets off to a hot start you are going to have a giant window for the score to land in and have both of your bets cash.
Tips For Handicapping First Half Betting Odds in Pro Football
There are more advantages to halftime betting than just hedging your bets. Halftime lines are based on a comparison of the game lines. If you are watching a matchup where the score is not an accurate reflection of how the teams have played you will have an easier time finding value.
Lets say the Chiefs ran the opening kickoff back for a TD and had a defensive TD on an interception. Chances are those kind of breaks won’t keep happening. Odds are New England is going to make this interesting. Taking the Patriots second half line is not only going to give you a double-win window, but it is a smart play.
There are times when you can create a double-win window, but may not want to. If the middle alls between key numbers then it may be better to ride out your original wager.
Key numbers in football are 3, 7, 10 and 14 points. Those coincide with the most popular scoring methods of touchdowns and field goals. If there is a safety, or two field goals that throws the margin between teams off the key numbers. At that point you will want to base your second half bet on how the teams played in the first half.
If you did not have the opportunity to watch the game, then riding out your original wager is the smart move. It is important not to get carried away with halftime lines too.
You will want to take advantage of big middling windows, especially in NCAAF. In the NFL a window of 7 points or more is preferred. These opportunities will not come up every weekend. Be patient and you will finish the year with more money in your pocket.