Jimmy Boyd in 
The table below lists the over/under results for active MLB home plate umpires. The numbers include all games through the 2015 regular season.
For each ump you will see the number of seasons and games included in their sample. We have also calculated the average runs scored in their games and how often they go over or under the total.
The final column shows if you should target the over or under (if any) when that umpire is behind the plate.
Umps to Target
The average runs scored are 8.7 with a standard deviation of 0.72.
To qualify as a target the ump must meet two criteria. First, the average runs for the ump must fall outside the standard deviation (9.5 for overs/8.0 for unders). Second, the over or under percentage must be greater than 54%.
Umps that hit these two markers may be worth targeting in certain situations.
Conclusion
It is important to note that none of the qualifying targets have more than four seasons of experience. It appears that most umps regress toward the mean as they appear in more games.
The data does not appear strong enough to warrant consideration in handicapping MLB totals.
MLB Umpires Totals Records
| Umpire | Seasons | Games | Runs | Ov | Un | Push | Ov % | Un % | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Baker | 4 | 109 | 7.6 | 43 | 61 | 5 | 39.4% | 56.0% | Under |
| Sean Barber | 2 | 35 | 8.8 | 20 | 15 | 0 | 57.1% | 42.9% | |
| Lance Barksdale | 16 | 487 | 8.8 | 217 | 242 | 28 | 44.6% | 49.7% | |
| Lance Barrett | 6 | 105 | 9.2 | 54 | 44 | 7 | 51.4% | 41.9% | |
| Ted Barrett | 16 | 525 | 9.0 | 236 | 265 | 24 | 45.0% | 50.5% | |
| Scott Barry | 10 | 258 | 9.0 | 126 | 122 | 10 | 48.8% | 47.3% | |
| Toby Basner | 4 | 54 | 8.9 | 27 | 24 | 3 | 50.0% | 44.4% | |
| Dan Bellino | 7 | 190 | 8.5 | 80 | 99 | 11 | 42.1% | 52.1% | |
| Ryan Blakney | 1 | 21 | 10.0 | 12 | 9 | 0 | 57.1% | 42.9% | Over |
| Cory Blaser | 6 | 147 | 7.9 | 65 | 72 | 10 | 44.2% | 49.0% | |
| CB Bucknor | 16 | 517 | 9.6 | 260 | 231 | 26 | 50.3% | 44.7% | |
| Vic Carapazza | 6 | 170 | 7.7 | 72 | 90 | 8 | 42.4% | 52.9% | |
| Mark Carlson | 16 | 495 | 8.7 | 228 | 249 | 18 | 46.1% | 50.3% | |
| Gary Cederstrom | 15 | 472 | 9.3 | 243 | 209 | 20 | 51.5% | 44.3% | |
| Chris Conroy | 6 | 137 | 8.2 | 70 | 61 | 6 | 51.1% | 44.5% | |
| Eric Cooper | 16 | 515 | 9.5 | 248 | 240 | 27 | 48.2% | 46.6% | |
| Fieldin Culbrith | 16 | 515 | 8.7 | 231 | 267 | 17 | 44.9% | 51.8% | |
| Phil Cuzzi | 16 | 521 | 8.8 | 223 | 268 | 30 | 42.8% | 51.4% | |
| Kerwin Danley | 16 | 435 | 8.9 | 194 | 223 | 18 | 44.6% | 51.3% | |
| Bob Davidson | 11 | 378 | 8.8 | 180 | 184 | 14 | 47.6% | 48.7% | |
| Gerry Davis | 16 | 505 | 9.4 | 246 | 229 | 30 | 48.7% | 45.3% | |
| Dana DeMuth | 16 | 488 | 9.3 | 239 | 227 | 22 | 49.0% | 46.5% | |
| Laz Diaz | 16 | 529 | 9.2 | 260 | 245 | 24 | 49.1% | 46.3% | |
| Mike DiMuro | 16 | 395 | 9.0 | 178 | 193 | 24 | 45.1% | 48.9% | |
| Rob Drake | 16 | 464 | 9.4 | 221 | 215 | 28 | 47.6% | 46.3% | |
| Bruce Dreckman | 12 | 334 | 9.1 | 164 | 159 | 11 | 49.1% | 47.6% | |
| Doug Eddings | 16 | 525 | 8.4 | 209 | 284 | 32 | 39.8% | 54.1% | |
| Paul Emmel | 16 | 505 | 9.2 | 246 | 231 | 28 | 48.7% | 45.7% | |
| Mike Estabrook | 9 | 217 | 8.1 | 97 | 110 | 10 | 44.7% | 50.7% | |
| Mike Everitt | 16 | 521 | 9.4 | 255 | 249 | 17 | 48.9% | 47.8% | |
| Clint Fagan | 5 | 83 | 7.3 | 36 | 45 | 2 | 43.4% | 54.2% | |
| Chad Fairchild | 11 | 294 | 9.0 | 139 | 142 | 13 | 47.3% | 48.3% | |
| Andy Fletcher | 16 | 481 | 9.2 | 217 | 236 | 28 | 45.1% | 49.1% | |
| Marty Foster | 16 | 492 | 9.2 | 225 | 250 | 17 | 45.7% | 50.8% | |
| Greg Gibson | 16 | 505 | 9.2 | 222 | 254 | 29 | 44.0% | 50.3% | |
| Tripp Gibson | 1 | 28 | 8.1 | 15 | 13 | 0 | 53.6% | 46.4% | |
| Manny Gonzalez | 6 | 130 | 8.2 | 65 | 56 | 9 | 50.0% | 43.1% | |
| Brian Gorman | 16 | 487 | 8.5 | 213 | 244 | 30 | 43.7% | 50.1% | |
| Chris Guccione | 16 | 517 | 9.1 | 246 | 242 | 29 | 47.6% | 46.8% | |
| Tom Hallion | 11 | 358 | 9.1 | 163 | 177 | 18 | 45.5% | 49.4% | |
| Adam Hamari | 3 | 79 | 8.2 | 40 | 35 | 4 | 50.6% | 44.3% | |
| Angel Hernadez | 16 | 526 | 9.0 | 248 | 256 | 22 | 47.1% | 48.7% | |
| Ed Hickox | 11 | 305 | 9.3 | 146 | 147 | 12 | 47.9% | 48.2% | |
| John Hirschbeck | 14 | 377 | 8.3 | 157 | 207 | 13 | 41.6% | 54.9% | |
| Pat Hoberg | 2 | 54 | 8.4 | 26 | 23 | 5 | 48.1% | 42.6% | |
| Sam Holbrook | 13 | 387 | 9.4 | 198 | 170 | 19 | 51.2% | 43.9% | |
| James Hoye | 13 | 353 | 9.2 | 151 | 184 | 18 | 42.8% | 52.1% | |
| Marvin Hudson | 16 | 518 | 9.2 | 245 | 251 | 22 | 47.3% | 48.5% | |
| Dan Iassogna | 16 | 530 | 8.8 | 229 | 283 | 18 | 43.2% | 53.4% | |
| Adrian Johnson | 10 | 278 | 8.5 | 141 | 120 | 17 | 50.7% | 43.2% | |
| Anthony Johnson | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 100.0% | |
| Jim Joyce | 16 | 445 | 9.4 | 210 | 211 | 24 | 47.2% | 47.4% | |
| Jeff Kellogg | 16 | 494 | 9.0 | 226 | 250 | 18 | 45.7% | 50.6% | |
| Brian Knight | 13 | 312 | 9.1 | 149 | 152 | 11 | 47.8% | 48.7% | |
| Ron Kulpa | 16 | 512 | 8.7 | 212 | 280 | 20 | 41.4% | 54.7% | |
| Jerry Layne | 16 | 442 | 9.2 | 206 | 214 | 22 | 46.6% | 48.4% | |
| Will Little | 3 | 67 | 7.9 | 32 | 33 | 2 | 47.8% | 49.3% | |
| Alfonso Marquez | 16 | 478 | 8.9 | 213 | 240 | 25 | 44.6% | 50.2% | |
| Ben May | 2 | 29 | 7.5 | 12 | 15 | 2 | 41.4% | 51.7% | |
| Jerry Meals | 16 | 524 | 9.2 | 238 | 250 | 36 | 45.4% | 47.7% | |
| Bill Miller | 16 | 532 | 8.7 | 216 | 292 | 24 | 40.6% | 54.9% | |
| Gabe Morales | 2 | 64 | 9.6 | 39 | 20 | 5 | 60.9% | 31.3% | Over |
| Mike Muchlinski | 10 | 191 | 8.8 | 81 | 105 | 5 | 42.4% | 55.0% | |
| Paul Nauert | 14 | 412 | 8.7 | 188 | 208 | 16 | 45.6% | 50.5% | |
| Jeff Nelson | 16 | 505 | 8.9 | 220 | 251 | 34 | 43.6% | 49.7% | |
| Brian O’Nora | 16 | 479 | 9.0 | 217 | 243 | 19 | 45.3% | 50.7% | |
| Alan Porter | 6 | 166 | 8.6 | 77 | 85 | 4 | 46.4% | 51.2% | |
| David Rackley | 6 | 89 | 7.6 | 39 | 42 | 8 | 43.8% | 47.2% | |
| Tony Randazzo | 15 | 467 | 9.3 | 219 | 222 | 26 | 46.9% | 47.5% | |
| D.J. Reyburn | 8 | 157 | 8.3 | 66 | 84 | 7 | 42.0% | 53.5% | |
| Jim Reynolds | 16 | 510 | 9.1 | 249 | 232 | 29 | 48.8% | 45.5% | |
| Mark Ripperger | 6 | 77 | 8.6 | 31 | 38 | 8 | 40.3% | 49.4% | |
| Stu Scheurwater | 2 | 9 | 8.3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 44.4% | 44.4% | |
| Dale Scott | 16 | 517 | 9.2 | 238 | 256 | 23 | 46.0% | 49.5% | |
| Chris Segal | 2 | 53 | 9.0 | 32 | 20 | 1 | 60.4% | 37.7% | |
| Todd Tichenor | 9 | 240 | 8.8 | 113 | 113 | 14 | 47.1% | 47.1% | |
| Tim Timmons | 16 | 522 | 9.2 | 246 | 252 | 24 | 47.1% | 48.3% | |
| Carlos Torres | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 33.3% | 66.7% | |
| John Tumpane | 6 | 98 | 9.1 | 42 | 46 | 10 | 42.9% | 46.9% | |
| Larry Vanover | 14 | 453 | 9.0 | 220 | 209 | 24 | 48.6% | 46.1% | |
| Mark Wegner | 16 | 496 | 9.2 | 238 | 231 | 27 | 48.0% | 46.6% | |
| Bill Welke | 16 | 506 | 9.2 | 242 | 248 | 16 | 47.8% | 49.0% | |
| Tim Welke | 16 | 498 | 9.4 | 237 | 235 | 26 | 47.6% | 47.2% | |
| Hunter Wendelstedt | 16 | 497 | 9.0 | 232 | 243 | 22 | 46.7% | 48.9% | |
| Joe West | 14 | 469 | 9.2 | 231 | 213 | 25 | 49.3% | 45.4% | |
| Chad Whitson | 1 | 1 | 6.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 100.0% | |
| Mike Winters | 16 | 507 | 9.0 | 231 | 258 | 18 | 45.6% | 50.9% | |
| Quinn Wolcott | 3 | 71 | 8.6 | 37 | 32 | 2 | 52.1% | 45.1% | |
| Jim Wolf | 16 | 471 | 9.0 | 219 | 227 | 25 | 46.5% | 48.2% | |
| Tom Woodring | 2 | 35 | 8.9 | 20 | 14 | 1 | 57.1% | 40.0% |