The table below lists the over/under results for active MLB home plate umpires.  The numbers include all games through the 2015 regular season.

For each ump you will see the number of seasons and games included in their sample.  We have also calculated the average runs scored in their games and how often they go over or under the total.

The final column shows if you should target the over or under (if any) when that umpire is behind the plate.

Umps to Target

The average runs scored are 8.7 with a standard deviation of 0.72.

To qualify as a target the ump must meet two criteria.  First, the average runs for the ump must fall outside the standard deviation (9.5 for overs/8.0 for unders). Second, the over or under percentage must be greater than 54%.

Umps that hit these two markers may be worth targeting in certain situations.

Conclusion

It is important to note that none of the qualifying targets have more than four seasons of experience.  It appears that most umps regress toward the mean as they appear in more games.

The data does not appear strong enough to warrant consideration in handicapping MLB totals.

MLB Umpires Totals Records

UmpireSeasonsGamesRunsOvUnPushOv %Un %Target
Jordan Baker41097.64361539.4%56.0%Under
Sean Barber2358.82015057.1%42.9%
Lance Barksdale164878.82172422844.6%49.7%
Lance Barrett61059.25444751.4%41.9%
Ted Barrett165259.02362652445.0%50.5%
Scott Barry102589.01261221048.8%47.3%
Toby Basner4548.92724350.0%44.4%
Dan Bellino71908.580991142.1%52.1%
Ryan Blakney12110.0129057.1%42.9%Over
Cory Blaser61477.965721044.2%49.0%
CB Bucknor165179.62602312650.3%44.7%
Vic Carapazza61707.77290842.4%52.9%
Mark Carlson164958.72282491846.1%50.3%
Gary Cederstrom154729.32432092051.5%44.3%
Chris Conroy61378.27061651.1%44.5%
Eric Cooper165159.52482402748.2%46.6%
Fieldin Culbrith165158.72312671744.9%51.8%
Phil Cuzzi165218.82232683042.8%51.4%
Kerwin Danley164358.91942231844.6%51.3%
Bob Davidson113788.81801841447.6%48.7%
Gerry Davis165059.42462293048.7%45.3%
Dana DeMuth164889.32392272249.0%46.5%
Laz Diaz165299.22602452449.1%46.3%
Mike DiMuro163959.01781932445.1%48.9%
Rob Drake164649.42212152847.6%46.3%
Bruce Dreckman123349.11641591149.1%47.6%
Doug Eddings165258.42092843239.8%54.1%
Paul Emmel165059.22462312848.7%45.7%
Mike Estabrook92178.1971101044.7%50.7%
Mike Everitt165219.42552491748.9%47.8%
Clint Fagan5837.33645243.4%54.2%
Chad Fairchild112949.01391421347.3%48.3%
Andy Fletcher164819.22172362845.1%49.1%
Marty Foster164929.22252501745.7%50.8%
Greg Gibson165059.22222542944.0%50.3%
Tripp Gibson1288.11513053.6%46.4%
Manny Gonzalez61308.26556950.0%43.1%
Brian Gorman164878.52132443043.7%50.1%
Chris Guccione165179.12462422947.6%46.8%
Tom Hallion113589.11631771845.5%49.4%
Adam Hamari3798.24035450.6%44.3%
Angel Hernadez165269.02482562247.1%48.7%
Ed Hickox113059.31461471247.9%48.2%
John Hirschbeck143778.31572071341.6%54.9%
Pat Hoberg2548.42623548.1%42.6%
Sam Holbrook133879.41981701951.2%43.9%
James Hoye133539.21511841842.8%52.1%
Marvin Hudson165189.22452512247.3%48.5%
Dan Iassogna165308.82292831843.2%53.4%
Adrian Johnson102788.51411201750.7%43.2%
Anthony Johnson116.00100.0%100.0%
Jim Joyce164459.42102112447.2%47.4%
Jeff Kellogg164949.02262501845.7%50.6%
Brian Knight133129.11491521147.8%48.7%
Ron Kulpa165128.72122802041.4%54.7%
Jerry Layne164429.22062142246.6%48.4%
Will Little3677.93233247.8%49.3%
Alfonso Marquez164788.92132402544.6%50.2%
Ben May2297.51215241.4%51.7%
Jerry Meals165249.22382503645.4%47.7%
Bill Miller165328.72162922440.6%54.9%
Gabe Morales2649.63920560.9%31.3%Over
Mike Muchlinski101918.881105542.4%55.0%
Paul Nauert144128.71882081645.6%50.5%
Jeff Nelson165058.92202513443.6%49.7%
Brian O’Nora164799.02172431945.3%50.7%
Alan Porter61668.67785446.4%51.2%
David Rackley6897.63942843.8%47.2%
Tony Randazzo154679.32192222646.9%47.5%
D.J. Reyburn81578.36684742.0%53.5%
Jim Reynolds165109.12492322948.8%45.5%
Mark Ripperger6778.63138840.3%49.4%
Stu Scheurwater298.344144.4%44.4%
Dale Scott165179.22382562346.0%49.5%
Chris Segal2539.03220160.4%37.7%
Todd Tichenor92408.81131131447.1%47.1%
Tim Timmons165229.22462522447.1%48.3%
Carlos Torres166.024033.3%66.7%
John Tumpane6989.142461042.9%46.9%
Larry Vanover144539.02202092448.6%46.1%
Mark Wegner164969.22382312748.0%46.6%
Bill Welke165069.22422481647.8%49.0%
Tim Welke164989.42372352647.6%47.2%
Hunter Wendelstedt164979.02322432246.7%48.9%
Joe West144699.22312132549.3%45.4%
Chad Whitson116.00100.0%100.0%
Mike Winters165079.02312581845.6%50.9%
Quinn Wolcott3718.63732252.1%45.1%
Jim Wolf164719.02192272546.5%48.2%
Tom Woodring2358.92014157.1%40.0%