The college football season is quickly approaching and I wanted to share with you a very profitable system to take advantage of this season. Unfortunately the system is strictly related to conference games, so we won’t see it come up too much early in the year with most teams playing a good portion of their non-conference schedules.
The focus of this system is on conference home dogs. You might assume that there’s some value with betting conference home dogs blindly, but that’s definitely not the case. Home underdogs in conference games have gone just 2593-2591-87 (50.02%) over the data that was used for this article.
The key when looking at a specific situation like this is to simplify the data and try and figure out when is the most profitable time to back these teams. The criteria that I used for this system includes the following:
- Conference Game
- Home Underdog
- Spread of +4.5 or more
- Off a Home Win
- Extra Rest (More 10 days)
- Opponent on Regular Rest (6 or less days)
You might be asking yourself why I chose these criteria. For starters, there’s definitely value in conference home underdogs in the right situation. Making sure the spread is 4.5 or more keeps you away from the key numbers of 3 and 4. I like the momentum factor of a team coming off a home win and playing their next game at home. Rest is pretty self-explanatory, as there’s almost value with underdogs when they have more rest than their opponent.
When you put all these factors together you get a system that has gone 41-10 (80.4%) ATS. Interesting to note, that the SU record for the teams in this spot is just 15-34-2 (30.6%), so getting the points is definitely the key factor here. Want to take this system one step further? Teams in this situation that are playing with revenge against their opponent are 35-7 (83.3%) ATS.