We go into each college football season trying to figure out what teams are title contenders. We also like to predict which players will be in the running for the Heisman Trophy. Trying to figure out which player is going to emerge is no easy task.
The obvious thing we do is focus on the top players coming back. Especially those who received attention for the award the previous season. While it makes sense, these players typically don’t end up winning. Why? The expectations are going to be even higher now that we have seen them play. More times than not, it’s the player who comes out of nowhere that steals our attention.
We also like to look for players in elite programs who will be taking on a bigger role due to a player departing. For example, whoever is the starting running back for Alabama is going to get attention. It doesn’t matter if it’s a player coming back or freshmen who has never seen the field.
Why do we focus on elite programs? That’s because there is a bias here when it comes to the voting. Players who put up big numbers on bad teams don’t get near the love as a players with similar or worse numbers on a national contender. Even if the player on the crap team is the best player in the country, chances are he won’t win.
Even when we know what players to lock in on, we just never really know. The unpredictability is what makes this award so great.
2019 Heisman Favorite, Front Runners & Latest Candidates to Win Trophy
With the 2018 season officially in the books, I figured now was as good a time as any to take a sneak peak at the odds to win the 2019 Heisman Trophy.
As most of you know, Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray won the award over Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa. It came just one season after Baker Mayfield won the award as the starting quarterback for Oklahoma. It marked the first time since the early 2000’s that we saw one school produce the Heisman winner in back-to-back year’s. USC accomplished that with Matt Leinart in 2004 and Reggie Bush in 2005.
Could the Sooners’ make it 3 straight? It’s definitely not out of the question as long as Lincoln Riley is still the head coach. I think he’s such a great offensive mind that whoever he puts at quarterback is going to produce big time numbers. It’s why you see projected starter Austin Kendall sitting at +1400 even though he’s barely seen the field in his two years in Norman.
As far as the odds on favorite to win, that would be Clemson’s star quarterback Trevor Lawrence at +300, just slightly ahead of Tagovailoa at +350. After the show Lawrence put on in the playoffs against Notre Dame and Alabama, you have to wonder if he wasn’t the best player in the country last year. He simply never had a shot at the award because he started out the season as the backup to Kelly Bryant.
After the two obvious choices, you have 5 other players listed at 10 to 1 or better. Those are Georgia quarterback Jake From (+850), Wisconsin running back Johnathan Taylor (+900), Georgia running back D’Andre Swift (+950), Clemson running back Travis Etienne (+950) and Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger (+1000).
All of those should be very familiar names. Some of the guys that didn’t have odds last year that have been added to the initial field other than Kendall at Oklahoma are Alabama wide out Jerry Jeudy (+1400), Ohio State quarterback Tate Martell (+1400), Purdue wide out Rondale Moore (+2000), Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez (+3000), and Arizona State running back Eno Benjamin (+3000).
We will continue to update the odds throughout the offseason and then once a week when the season gets here, so be sure to check back often. You can also view the archive list to look back at all the previous checkpoints.
Heisman Predictions – Pick to Win
Winner: Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson) +300
If I’m going to make an early wager on this prop, I’m going to go with the obvious choice here in Lawrence at Clemson. I just think this kid is special and will put up even better numbers in his sophomore season, especially when you take into consideration that he’s going to have at least two elite targets Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross. Not to mention teams can’t just play the pass with Etienne returning. The other thing is the defense figures to take a step back losing 4 NFL talents on the defensive line, so he’s likely going to be asked to score even more.
If I had to pick a long shot out of the players listed, it would be Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez at +3000. It will be year-two under Scott Frost in Lincoln and Martinez quietly had one of the better freshmen seasons in the country. He threw for 2,600 yards, completed 65% of his attempts, and finished with a 17-8 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for 629 yards and 8 scores.
Updated Vegas Betting Odds on Who Will Win Heisman Trophy This Year
|Player||Current Odds||Implied Probability|
|Trevor Lawrence (QB Clemson)||+300||25.00%|
|Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Alabama)||+350||22.22%|
|Jake Fromm (QB, Georgia)||+850||10.53%|
|Johnathan Taylor (RB, Wisconsin)||+900||10.00%|
|D’Andre Swift (RB, Georgia)||+950||9.52%|
|Travis Etienne (RB, Clemson)||+950||9.52%|
|Sam Ehlinger (QB, Texas)||+1000||9.09%|
|Austin Kendall (QB, Oklahoma)||+1400||6.67%|
|Jerry Jeudy (WR, Alabama)||+1400||6.67%|
|Tate Martell (QB, Ohio State)||+1400||6.67%|
|A.J. Dillon (RB, Boston College)||+2000||4.76%|
|Rondale Moore (WR, Purdue)||+2000||4.76%|
|Shea Patterson (QB, Michigan)||+2000||4.76%|
|Adrian Martinez (QB, Nebraska)||+3000||3.23%|
|Eno Benjamin (RB, Arizona State)||+3000||3.23%|
|Jalen Hurts (QB, Alabama)||+3000||3.23%|
|K.J. Costello (QB, Stanford)||+3000||3.23%|
|D’Eriq King (QB, Houston)||+4000||2.44%|
|Kelly Bryant (QB, Missouri)||+4000||2.44%|
|Khalil Tate (QB, Arizona)||+4000||2.44%|
|Kyler Murray (QB, Oklahoma)||-190||+350||+450||+500||+600||+330||+350||+300||+700||+350||+800||+950||+1200||+1800||+2000|
|Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Alabama)||+150||-500||-400||-450||-1000||-275||-275||-150||-150||-105||+115||+175||+330||+400||+700||+700|
|Dwayne Haskins (QB, Ohio State)||+6000||+3300||+5000||+10000||+1400||+900||+1200||+300||+450||+375||+500||+650||+650||+600||+1500||+2200|
|Will Grier (QB, West Virginia)||+2000||+1200||+700||+1800||+1800||+2000||+1200||+650||+550||+650||+650||+450||+500||+1500||+2000|
|Gardner Minshew (QB, Washington State)||+5000||+3300||+5000||+5000|
|Trevor Lawrence (QB Clemson)||+10000||+5000||+2500||+6600||+4000||+4000||+5000||+5000||+10000||+4000||+4000||+4000||+4000||+1500||+3500|
|Travis Etienne (RB, Clemson)||+10000||+6000||+2500||+10000||+1600||+2500||+5000||+4000||+10000||+8000||+8000||+12500||+10000||+7000||+3500|
|McKenzie Milton (QB, UCF)||+5000||+10000||+10000||+2000||+2000||+2000||+1200||+2000||+1600||+2500||+1200||+1100||+7000||+2800|
|Shea Patterson (QB, Michigan)||+10000||+2000||+1400||+1200||+1200||+3300||+3300||+5000||+6500||+1800|
|Trace McSorley (QB, Penn State)||+2000||+1400||+2000||+1200||+2500||+1600||+1600||+950||+900||+1500||+1800|
|Johnathan Taylor (RB, Wisconsin)||+5000||+5000||+2000||+2200||+1600||+1000||+900||+1000||+800||+600|
|Justin Herbert (QB, Oregon)||+10000||+6600||+6600||+4000||+5000||+3300||+2500||+2200||+3300||+1800|
|Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)||+10000||+20000||+10000||+6000||+4000||+3300||+4000||+3500||+3300||+2500|
|Bryce Love (RB, Stanford)||+20000||+10000||+10000||+4000||+1600||+2000||+1600||+1200||+700||+700|
|Benny Snell (RB, Kentucky)||+6000||+6000||+6000|
|Jake Fromm (QB, Georgia)||+20000||+10000||+10000||+4000||+10000||+5000||+2500||+1500||+1200|
|David Sills (WR, West Virginia)||+8000||+6600||+6600||+6600||+5000||+10000||+10000||+6600|
|D’Andre Swift (RB, Georgia)||+10000||+10000||+4000||+2500||+2200||+2500||+3000||+2800|
|J.K. Dobbins (RB, Ohio State)||+20000||+8000||+2000||+5000||+5000||+1800||+650|
|Nick Fitzgerald (QB, Mississippi St)||+4000||+3300||+8000||+10000||+5000||+3500|
|Khalil Tate (QB, Arizona)||+5000||+5000||+5000||+2500||+1500||+1400|
|Jake Browning (QB, Washington)||+8000||+8000||+5000||+5000||+3300||+2200|
|Jarrett Stidham (QB, Auburn)||+10000||+6600||+4000||+3000||+2500||+1600|
|Brandon Wimbush (QB, Notre Dame)||+12500||+4000||+4000||+3000||+5000||+3500|
|Kelly Bryant (QB, Clemson)||+12500||+5000||+4000||+10000||+4000||+2000|
|Ryan Finley (QB, NC State)||+20000||+20000||+15000||+22500||+10000||+4400|
|A.J. Dillon (RB, Boston College)||+2000||+6000|
|Damien Harris (RB, Alabama)||+5000||+4000||+4500||+5000|
|Deondre Francois (QB, Florida State)||+6600||+8500|
|Sam Ehlinger (QB, Texas)||+8000||+20000||+7500|
|Cam Akers (RB, Florida State)||+10000||+8500||+2500||+2500|
|Nick Bosa (DL, Ohio State)||+10000||+20000||+10000||+6600|
|Justice Hill (RB, Oklahoma State)||+6000||+10000||+7500|
|Stephen Carr (RB, USC)||+17500|
|Rodney Anderson (RB, Oklahoma)||+4000||+2500|
|Frank Nutil (QB, Temple)||+10000||+10000|
More College Football Futures & Odds
It’s no secret that the winner of the Heisman is often the best player on the best team in the country. Before placing any wagers on this future, check out our National Championship Odds.
Looking for more ways to bet on college football before the season starts? You are going to want to check out our regular-season win totals page.
Season already started? Build your bankroll with premium NCAAF picks from one of our expert handicappers. You are also going to want to visit our college football odds section. It’s the perfect place to stay up to date on the latest totals and spreads. Plus, you can shop lines from some of the top sportsbooks in the industry.
Heisman History – Invitees, Standings, Voting Polls & Past Champions
List of Finalists Invited to Heisman Ceremony in 2016
- Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
- Bryce Love, RB Stanford
- Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Voting Poll Standings Last 5 Years
|1st||Kyler Murray (Oklahoma)||Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)||Lamar Jackson (Louisville)||Derrick Henry (Alabama)||Marcus Mariota (Oregon)|
|2nd||Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama)||Bryce Love (Stanford)||Deshaun Watson (Clemson)||Christian McCaffrey (Stanford)||Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin)|
|3rd||Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State)||Lamar Jackson (Louisville)||Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)||Deshaun Watson (Clemson)||Amari Cooper (Alabama)|
|4th||Will Grier (West Virginia)||Saquon Barkley (Penn St)||Dede WestBrook (Oklahoma)||Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)||Trevone Boykin (TCU)|
|5th||Gardner Minshew (Washington State)||Rashaad Penny (San Diego St)||Jabrill Peppers (Michigan)||Keenan Reynolds (Navy)||J.T. Barrett (Ohio State)|
Every Player Who has Won the Heisman Award
|2013||Jameis Winston||Florida State|
|2012||Johnny Manziel||Texas A&M|
|2011||Robert Griffin III||Baylor|
|2006||Troy Smith||Ohio State|
|2000||Chris Weinke||Florida State|
|1995||Eddie George||Ohio State|
|1993||Charlie Ward||Florida State|
|1992||Gino Torretta||Miami (FL)|
|1988||Barry Sanders||Oklahoma State|
|1987||Tim Brown||Notre Dame|
|1986||Vinny Testaverde||Miami (FL)|
|1984||Doug Flutie||Boston College|
|1980||George Rogers||South Carolina|
|1975||Archie Griffin||Ohio State|
|1974||Archie Griffin||Ohio State|
|1973||John Cappelletti||Penn State|
|1964||John Huarte||Notre Dame|
|1962||Terry Baker||Oregon State|
|1957||John David Crow||Texas A&M|
|1956||Paul Hornung||Notre Dame|
|1955||Howard Cassady||Ohio State|
|1953||John Lattner||Notre Dame|
|1950||Vic Janowicz||Ohio State|
|1949||Leon Hart||Notre Dame|
|1947||John Lujack||Notre Dame|
|1944||Les Horvath||Ohio State|
|1943||Angelo Bertelli||Notre Dame|