Jimmy Boyd in 
The Heisman runs on production plus team success plus TV windows, so one marquee Saturday can reprice the whole board in both directions. A name can torch a defense in a losing effort and still slide down the page. A lighter stat line attached to a ranked team playing in a featured window can climb right past him. The trophy was never built to be settled by a spreadsheet, and the pricing on this board reflects that every week.
That’s what separates this market from one with a cleaner set of inputs. A bettor who only tracks the stat leader and ignores the win column or the broadcast slot is going to get burned more often than not. The names worth following are the ones stacking all three pieces at once, not just the ones padding a box score against a tired defense in front of a regional audience.
2026 Heisman Trophy Odds
| # | Player | Best price | Book | Implied | 7 days | Since start |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremiah SmithWR · Ohio State | +160 | bet365 | 38.5% | +39% | -83% |
| 2 | Darian MensahQB · Miami | +175 | Caesars | 36.4% | -41% | -52% |
| 3 | CJ CarrQB · Notre Dame | +600 | BetMGM | 14.3% | -72% | -62% |
| 4 | Trinidad ChamblissQB · Ole Miss | +1100 | Caesars | 8.3% | -64% | +228% |
| 5 | Sam LeavittQB · LSU | +5000 | BetMGM | 2.0% | -48% | -35% |
| 6 | Gunner StocktonQB · Georgia | +6600 | BetMGM | 1.5% | -10% | +19% |
| 7 | Drew MestemakerQB · Oklahoma State | +6600 | BetMGM | 1.5% | +38% | -8% |
| 8 | Gio LopezQB · Wake Forest | +8000 | BetMGM | 1.2% | even | – |
| 9 | Jesse LegreeWR · Oregon State | +10000 | BetMGM | 1.0% | +188% | – |
| 10 | Devon DampierQB · Utah | +12500 | BetMGM | 0.8% | -39% | -20% |
| 11 | Keelon RussellQB · Alabama | +15000 | BetMGM | 0.7% | +7% | +350% |
| 12 | Nate SheppardRB · Duke | +20000 | bet365 | 0.5% | – | – |
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| 13 | Aidan ChilesQB · Northwestern | +25000 | Caesars | 0.4% | -10% | – |
| 14 | Jayden MaiavaQB · USC | +30000 | BetMGM | 0.3% | +35% | +575% |
| 15 | Bear BachmeierQB · BYU | +30000 | BetMGM | 0.3% | +25% | +178% |
| 16 | Lincoln KienholzQB · Louisville | +30000 | BetMGM | 0.3% | even | +372% |
| 17 | Kenny MincheyQB · Kentucky | +30000 | BetMGM | 0.3% | -11% | -15% |
| 18 | Noah FifitaQB · Arizona | +30000 | BetMGM | 0.3% | +13% | +58% |
| 19 | Austin SimmonsMissouri | +40000 | bet365 | 0.2% | – | – |
| 20 | LaNorris SellersQB · South Carolina | +50000 | BetMGM | 0.2% | – | +25% |
| 21 | Conner WeigmanQB · Houston | +50000 | BetMGM | 0.2% | +117% | +195% |
| 22 | Charlie BeckerWR · Indiana | +50000 | bet365 | 0.2% | – | – |
| 23 | Arch ManningQB · Texas | +50000 | BetMGM | 0.2% | +17% | +3233% |
| Only one book still prices these | ||||||
| 24 | Dante MooreQB · Oregon | +5000 | Caesars | 2.0% | – | – |
| 25 | Braden AtkinsonQB · Oregon State | +10000 | bet365 | 1.0% | – | – |
| 26 | Kevin JenningsQB · SMU | +20000 | bet365 | 0.5% | – | – |
| 27 | Michael HawkinsQB · West Virginia | +20000 | bet365 | 0.5% | – | – |
| 28 | Wayne KnightRB · UCLA | +25000 | bet365 | 0.4% | – | – |
| 29 | Jamal RobertsRB · Missouri | +25000 | bet365 | 0.4% | – | – |
| 30 | Josh HooverQB · Indiana | +30000 | bet365 | 0.3% | – | – |
| 31 | John MateerQB · Oklahoma | +30000 | bet365 | 0.3% | – | – |
| 32 | Jadan BaughRB · Florida | +30000 | bet365 | 0.3% | – | – |
| 33 | Aaron PhiloQB · Florida | +40000 | bet365 | 0.2% | – | – |
| 34 | Anthony ColandreaQB · Nebraska | +40000 | bet365 | 0.2% | – | – |
| 35 | Ethan GrunkemeyerQB · Virginia Tech | +40000 | bet365 | 0.2% | – | – |
| 36 | Avery JohnsonQB · Kansas State | +40000 | bet365 | 0.2% | – | – |
| 37 | DeSean BishopRB · Tennessee | +40000 | FanDuel | 0.2% | – | – |
Best price is the longest number we found across bet365, BetMGM, Caesars, FanDuel. Implied probability strips nothing out; the whole board adds to more than 100% and that gap is the books’ margin. Movement is the change in what a winning dollar pays, so a move means the same thing at the top of the board and at the bottom; green means the price shortened. It reads across the books quoting a player both then and now, and a row too thinly quoted to compare shows a dash rather than a number. Since start runs from the first day we have every book’s price, which is not the market’s opening line.
Why Yards Alone Never Set This Price
A box score tells you what a player did. It does not tell you who saw it, or whether his team mattered that week. The Heisman price bakes in all three, so a quarterback throwing for a pile of yards on a losing team sits behind a quieter stat line attached to a ranked team in a featured window.
That blend is exactly why shopping across bet365, BetMGM, Caesars, FanDuel pays off here more than in most futures markets. Each shop weighs the recent production differently, so the same player can carry two different numbers on the same afternoon. Before betting a name off one big game, check his team’s remaining schedule for ranked opponents and prime broadcast slots. Those windows move this price as much as yards do.
What It Takes for the Back of the Board to Pay
A price like Arch Manning at +50000 is not a bet on a breakout game. It’s a bet on a chain of events: the starter ahead of him stumbles or gets hurt, the team keeps winning, and the schedule hands him a night where the whole country is watching. Skip any one of those and the ticket is dead money regardless of how the stat line looks.
Jesse Legree shows how fast that chain can start moving. Having drifted by 188% to sit at +10000, that kind of swing rarely comes from a full season of tape. It traces back to one game, one injury, or one loss that knocked a rival off the board. A small ticket at the long end only makes sense when you can point to a realistic path like that, not just a name you like.
The Favorite’s Return, and the Trap in the Middle
Backing the top of the board rarely pays big. A price like +160 reflects a player who has already cleared the bar on production, team success, and exposure, so the number is honest more often than it’s generous. That’s fine if the goal is a steady, likely return rather than a lottery ticket.
The real pricing mistakes live in the middle of the board, among the CJ Carr types sitting a tier below the top two. These are players who clear one or two of the three boxes but not all of them, and sportsbooks don’t always agree on how to weigh the gap. That disagreement is where a careful bettor finds value that the public, chasing the obvious name at the top, tends to walk right past.
