We go into each college football season trying to figure out what teams are title contenders. We also like to predict which players will be in the running for the Heisman Trophy. Trying to figure out which player is going to emerge is no easy task.
The obvious thing we do is focus on the top players coming back. Especially those who received attention for the award the previous season. While it makes sense, these players typically don’t end up winning. Why? The expectations are going to be even higher now that we have seen them play. More times than not, it’s the player who comes out of nowhere that steals our attention.
We also like to look for players in elite programs who will be taking on a bigger role due to a player departing. For example, whoever is the starting running back for Alabama is going to get attention. It doesn’t matter if it’s a player coming back or freshmen who has never seen the field.
Why do we focus on elite programs? That’s because there is a bias here when it comes to the voting. Players who put up big numbers on bad teams don’t get near the love as a players with similar or worse numbers on a national contender. Even if the player on the crap team is the best player in the country, chances are he won’t win.
Even when we know what players to lock in on, we just never really know. The unpredictability is what makes this award so great.
2018 Heisman Favorite, Front Runners & Latest Candidates to Win Trophy
We are now 3 weeks into the 2018 college football season. While there’s still a ton of games to be played, the race for the Heisman Trophy is starting to shape into form.
Here’s a look at the updated odds to win the award as we near the start of Week 4 on the college gridiron.
The frontrunner remains Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, whose odds just keep getting better. Last week we saw his odds go from +400 down to +330 and now he’s the overwhelming favorite at +175.
While it’s definitely Tagovailoa’s trophy to lose right now, it’s far from a finished race. The two biggest contenders according to the books are West Virginia quarterback Will Grier and Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins. Both players are tied for the second best odds at +650.
They aren’t the only two threats with solid odds to win the award. Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray is sitting at +950 and Wisconsin running back Johnathan Taylor is next in line at +1000. Not to far back and still in the mix are Penn State quarterback Trace McSorely (+1600), Stanford running back Bryce Love (+2000), Ohio State running back J.K. Dobbins (+2000) and Boston College running back A.J. Dillion (+2000)
There’s a bunch of other players who are sitting somewhere between 25 to 1 and 50 to 1. While these guys need some special performances to be taken seriously, a lot can change now that we are getting into conference play.
I’ll continue to update the odds leading up to the start of each week, so be sure to check back.
Heisman Predictions – Pick to Win
Winner: Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Alabama) +175
I was all over Tagovailoa when the odds were first released, snagging him at +700. I’m not about to jump off the ship, even though we are getting a much worse price on him. I just think that given how good Alabama is and the potential for all the records that offense could set with Tagovailoa at quarterback, it’s going to be hard for anyone to really challenge him when it’s all said and done. I don’t think it’s out of the question that we could see something similar to a couple years ago when Lamar Jackson had this thing wrapped up by the middle of the season. I would expect the odds to only keep dropping, so now is definitely the time to strike and congrats to anyone who locked him in at +700.
Updated Vegas Betting Odds on Who Will Win Heisman Trophy This Year
|Player||Current Odds||Implied Probability|
|Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Alabama)||+175||36.36%|
|Will Grier (QB, West Virginia)||+650||13.33%|
|Dwayne Haskins (QB, Ohio State)||+650||13.33%|
|Kyler Murray (QB, Oklahoma)||+950||9.52%|
|Johnathan Taylor (RB, Wisconsin)||+1000||9.09%|
|Trace McSorley (QB, Penn State)||+1600||5.88%|
|Bryce Love (RB, Stanford)||+2000||4.76%|
|J.K. Dobbins (RB, Ohio State)||+2000||4.76%|
|A.J. Dillon (RB, Boston College)||+2000||4.76%|
|McKenzie Milton (QB, UCF)||+2500||3.85%|
|D’Andre Swift (RB, Georgia)||+2500||3.85%|
|Justin Herbert (QB, Oregon)||+3300||2.94%|
|Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)||+3300||2.94%|
|Shea Patterson (QB, Michigan)||+3300||2.94%|
|Nick Fitzgerald (QB, Mississippi St)||+3300||2.94%|
|Brandon Wimbush (QB, Notre Dame)||+4000||2.44%|
|Trevor Lawrence (QB Clemson)||+4000||2.44%|
|Kelly Bryant (QB, Clemson)||+5000||1.96%|
|Khalil Tate (QB, Arizona)||+5000||1.96%|
|Jarrett Stidham (QB, Auburn)||+6600||1.49%|
|David Sills (WR, West Virginia)||+6600||1.49%|
|Ed Oliver (DL, Houston)||+6600||1.49%|
|Jake Browning (QB, Washington)||+8000||1.23%|
|Travis Etienne (RB, Clemson)||+8000||1.23%|
|Jake Fromm (QB, Georgia)||+10000||0.99%|
|Ryan Finley (QB, NC State)||+20000||0.50%|
|Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Alabama)||+330||+400||+700||+700|
|Will Grier (QB, West Virginia)||+450||+500||+1500||+2000|
|Dwayne Haskins (QB, Ohio State)||+650||+600||+1500||+2200|
|Kyler Murray (QB, Oklahoma)||+1200||+1800||+2000|
|Johnathan Taylor (RB, Wisconsin)||+900||+1000||+800||+600|
|Trace McSorley (QB, Penn State)||+950||+900||+1500||+1800|
|Bryce Love (RB, Stanford)||+1600||+1200||+700||+700|
|J.K. Dobbins (RB, Ohio State)||+5000||+5000||+1800||+650|
|A.J. Dillon (RB, Boston College)||+6000|
|McKenzie Milton (QB, UCF)||+1200||+1100||+7000||+2800|
|D’Andre Swift (RB, Georgia)||+2200||+2500||+3000||+2800|
|Justin Herbert (QB, Oregon)||+2500||+2200||+3300||+1800|
|Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)||+4000||+3500||+3300||+2500|
|Shea Patterson (QB, Michigan)||+5000||+6500||+1800|
|Nick Fitzgerald (QB, Mississippi St)||+8000||+10000||+5000||+3500|
|Brandon Wimbush (QB, Notre Dame)||+4000||+3000||+5000||+3500|
|Trevor Lawrence (QB Clemson)||+4000||+4000||+1500||+3500|
|Kelly Bryant (QB, Clemson)||+4000||+10000||+4000||+2000|
|Khalil Tate (QB, Arizona)||+5000||+2500||+1500||+1400|
|Jarrett Stidham (QB, Auburn)||+4000||+3000||+2500||+1600|
|David Sills (WR, West Virginia)||+5000||+10000||+10000||+6600|
|Ed Oliver (DL, Houston)||+8000||+9000||+10000||+6600|
|Jake Browning (QB, Washington)||+5000||+5000||+3300||+2200|
|Travis Etienne (RB, Clemson)||+12500||+10000||+7000||+3500|
|Jake Fromm (QB, Georgia)||+5000||+2500||+1500||+1200|
|Ryan Finley (QB, NC State)||+15000||+22500||+10000||+4400|
|Damien Harris (RB, Alabama)||+5000||+4000||+4500||+5000|
|Deondre Francois (QB, Florida State)||+6600||+8500|
|Sam Ehlinger (QB, Texas)||+8000||+20000||+7500|
|Cam Akers (RB, Florida State)||+10000||+8500||+2500||+2500|
|Nick Bosa (DL, Ohio State)||+10000||+20000||+10000||+6600|
|Justice Hill (RB, Oklahoma State)||+6000||+10000||+7500|
|Stephen Carr (RB, USC)||+17500|
|Rodney Anderson (RB, Oklahoma)||+4000||+2500|
|Frank Nutil (QB, Temple)||+10000||+10000|
More College Football Futures & Odds
It’s no secret that the winner of the Heisman is often the best player on the best team in the country. Before placing any wagers on this future, check out our National Championship Odds.
Looking for more ways to bet on college football before the season starts? You are going to want to check out our regular-season win totals page.
Season already started? Build your bankroll with premium NCAAF picks from one of our expert handicappers. You are also going to want to visit our college football odds section. It’s the perfect place to stay up to date on the latest totals and spreads. Plus, you can shop lines from some of the top sportsbooks in the industry.
Heisman History – Invitees, Standings, Voting Polls & Past Champions
List of Finalists Invited to Heisman Ceremony in 2016
- Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
- Bryce Love, RB Stanford
- Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Voting Poll Standings Last 5 Years
|1st||Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)||Lamar Jackson (Louisville)||Derrick Henry (Alabama)||Marcus Mariota (Oregon)||Jamies Winston (FSU)|
|2nd||Bryce Love (Stanford)||Deshaun Watson (Clemson)||Christian McCaffrey (Stanford)||Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin)||A.J. McCarron (Alabama)|
|3rd||Lamar Jackson (Louisville)||Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)||Deshaun Watson (Clemson)||Amari Cooper (Alabama)||Jordan Lynch (Northern Illinois)|
|4th||Saquon Barkley (Penn St)||Dede WestBrook (Oklahoma)||Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)||Trevone Boykin (TCU)||Andre Williams (Boston College)|
|5th||Rashaad Penny (San Diego St)||Jabrill Peppers (Michigan)||Keenan Reynolds (Navy)||J.T. Barrett (Ohio State)||Johnny Manziel (Texas A&M)|
Every Player Who has Won the Heisman Award
|2013||Jameis Winston||Florida State|
|2012||Johnny Manziel||Texas A&M|
|2011||Robert Griffin III||Baylor|
|2006||Troy Smith||Ohio State|
|2000||Chris Weinke||Florida State|
|1995||Eddie George||Ohio State|
|1993||Charlie Ward||Florida State|
|1992||Gino Torretta||Miami (FL)|
|1988||Barry Sanders||Oklahoma State|
|1987||Tim Brown||Notre Dame|
|1986||Vinny Testaverde||Miami (FL)|
|1984||Doug Flutie||Boston College|
|1980||George Rogers||South Carolina|
|1975||Archie Griffin||Ohio State|
|1974||Archie Griffin||Ohio State|
|1973||John Cappelletti||Penn State|
|1964||John Huarte||Notre Dame|
|1962||Terry Baker||Oregon State|
|1957||John David Crow||Texas A&M|
|1956||Paul Hornung||Notre Dame|
|1955||Howard Cassady||Ohio State|
|1953||John Lattner||Notre Dame|
|1950||Vic Janowicz||Ohio State|
|1949||Leon Hart||Notre Dame|
|1947||John Lujack||Notre Dame|
|1944||Les Horvath||Ohio State|
|1943||Angelo Bertelli||Notre Dame|