We go into each college football season trying to figure out what teams are title contenders. We also like to predict which players will be in the running for the Heisman Trophy. Trying to figure out which player is going to emerge is no easy task.
The obvious thing we do is focus on the top players coming back. Especially those who received attention for the award the previous season. While it makes sense, these players typically don’t end up winning. Why? The expectations are going to be even higher now that we have seen them play. More times than not, it’s the player who comes out of nowhere that steals our attention.
We also like to look for players in elite programs who will be taking on a bigger role due to a player departing. For example, whoever is the starting running back for Alabama is going to get attention. It doesn’t matter if it’s a player coming back or freshmen who has never seen the field.
Why do we focus on elite programs? That’s because there is a bias here when it comes to the voting. Players who put up big numbers on bad teams don’t get near the love as a players with similar or worse numbers on a national contender. Even if the player on the crap team is the best player in the country, chances are he won’t win.
Even when we know what players to lock in on, we just never really know. The unpredictability is what makes this award so great.
2019 Heisman Favorite, Front Runners & Latest Candidates to Win Trophy
Here’s an updated look at the 2019 Heisman odds as we approach Week 3 action.
Up until this week the books have heavily favored Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence and Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Both had odds less than 3 to 1 win last week. While they still have the best odds, the books have brought them back closer to the rest of the field.
Lawrence is the odds on favorite at +300 and Tagovailoa is next up at +400. Oklahoma quarterback Jalen Hurts is up to +600 after being listed at +900 last week and LSU quarterback has went from +2000 to +750. Jonathan Taylor is a little further back at +1200, but was at +2800 last week.
Ohio State’s Justin Fields (+1300), Georgia Jake Fromm (+1600), Clemson’s Travis Etienne (+2000) are next up with Georgia’s D’Andre Swift, Texas’ Sam Ehlinger and Oregon’s Justin Herbert all sitting at +2500.
Heisman Predictions – Pick to Win
Winner: Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson) +260
If I’m going to make an early wager on this prop, I’m going to go with one of the obvious choices in Lawrence at Clemson. I just think this kid is special and will put up even better numbers in his sophomore season. He’s going to have at least two elite targets Tee Higgins and Justyn Ross. Not to mention teams can’t just play the pass with Etienne returning. The other thing is the defense figures to take a step back losing 4 elite NFL talents on the defensive line. That should leader to fewer blowouts and he sits out the 4th quarter. Probably the one thing that cost Tua the award last year.
Value Play: Jonathan Taylor (RB, Wisconsin) +1200
Last week I listed Jalen Hurts at +900 as my favorite value pick. It was the ideal time to jump on Hurts, as he’s now listed at +600. This week my favorite value play would be Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor at +1200. I don’t know why people aren’t talking about this kid more.
Last year he rushed for 2,194 yards and that was after he put up 1,977 as a true freshman in 2017. He’s well on his way to approaching that elusive mark in 2019. He’s got 237 yards and 5 scores in 2 games on the ground. He also has 5 catches for 65 yard and 3 scores. Note he had only caught 16 passes for 155 yards his first two season (0 touchdown catches prior to this year).
Updated Vegas Betting Odds on Who Will Win Heisman Trophy This Year
|Player||Current Odds||Implied Probability|
|Trevor Lawrence (QB Clemson)||+300||25.00%|
|Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Alabama)||+400||20.00%|
|Jalen Hurts (QB, Oklahoma)||+600||14.29%|
|Joe Burrow (QB, LSU)||+750||11.76%|
|Jonathan Taylor (RB, Wisconsin)||+1200||7.69%|
|Justin Fields (QB, Ohio State)||+1300||7.14%|
|Jake Fromm (QB, Georgia)||+1600||5.88%|
|Travis Etienne (RB, Clemson)||+2000||4.76%|
|D’Andre Swift (RB, Georgia)||+2500||3.85%|
|Sam Ehlinger (QB, Texas)||+2500||3.85%|
|Justin Herbert (QB,Oregon)||+2500||3.85%|
|Tee Higgins (WR, Clemson)||+3000||3.23%|
|Shea Patterson (QB, Michigan)||+5000||1.96%|
|Jerry Jeudy (WR, Alabama)||+5000||1.96%|
|Adrian Martinez (QB, Nebraska)||+5000||1.96%|
|Kelly Bryant (QB, Missouri)||+5000||1.96%|
|Austin Kendall (QB, Oklahoma)||+6000||1.64%|
|Eno Benjamin (RB, Arizona State)||+6000||1.64%|
|D’Eriq King (QB, Houston)||+6600||1.49%|
|Najee Harris (RB, Alabama)||+6600||1.49%|
|Ian Book (QB, Notre Dame)||+6600||1.49%|
|A.J. Dillon (RB, Boston College)||+6600||1.49%|
|Tate Martell (QB, Ohio State)||+6600||1.49%|
|Kellen Mond (QB, Texas A&M)||+6600||1.49%|
|J.K. Dobbins (RB, Ohio State)||+8000||1.23%|
|Bo Nix (QB, Auburn)||+8000||1.23%|
|Rondale Moore (WR, Purdue)||+8000||1.23%|
|K.J. Costello (QB, Stanford)||+8000||1.23%|
|Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR, Colorado||+10000||0.99%|
|Trevor Lawrence (QB Clemson)||+260||+260||+260||+300|
|Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Alabama)||+270||+260||+260||+350|
|Jalen Hurts (QB, Oklahoma)||+900||+1000||+900||+3000|
|Joe Burrow (QB, LSU)||+2000||+5000|
|Jonathan Taylor (RB, Wisconsin)||+2800||+3000||+1700||+900|
|Justin Fields (QB, Ohio State)||+1600|
|Jake Fromm (QB, Georgia)||+1200||+1400||+1400||+850|
|Travis Etienne (RB, Clemson)||+2500||+3000||+2000||+950|
|D’Andre Swift (RB, Georgia)||+1400||+2500||+1700||+950|
|Sam Ehlinger (QB, Texas)||+1800||+1500||+2000||+1000|
|Justin Herbert (QB,Oregon)||+2800||+1600||+2200|
|Tee Higgins (WR, Clemson)||+6600||+8000||+3500|
|Shea Patterson (QB, Michigan)||+2200||+2500||+2600||+2000|
|Jerry Jeudy (WR, Alabama)||+4000||+6000||+3500||+1400|
|Adrian Martinez (QB, Nebraska)||+5500||+1300||+1200||+3000|
|Kelly Bryant (QB, Missouri)||+12500||+7500||+6500||+4000|
|Austin Kendall (QB, Oklahoma)||+7500||+7500||+3500||+1400|
|Eno Benjamin (RB, Arizona State)||+10000||+8000||+6500||+3000|
|D’Eriq King (QB, Houston)||+5000||+2500||+6500||+4000|
|Najee Harris (RB, Alabama)||+5000||+3000||+3000|
|Ian Book (QB, Notre Dame)||+5000||+4000||+3000|
|A.J. Dillon (RB, Boston College)||+10000||+5000||+7500||+2000|
|Tate Martell (QB, Ohio State)||+25000||+8000||+6000||+1400|
|Kellen Mond (QB, Texas A&M)|
|J.K. Dobbins (RB, Ohio State)||+6000|
|Bo Nix (QB, Auburn)||+6600|
|Rondale Moore (WR, Purdue)||+8000||+6000||+5000||+2000|
|K.J. Costello (QB, Stanford)||+8000||+10000||+6000||+3000|
|Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR, Colorado||+20000||+10000|
|Khalil Tate (QB, Arizona)||+4000||+6000||+6500||+4000|
|Tylan Wallace (WR, Oklahoma State)||+20000||+10000||+8500|
More College Football Futures & Odds
It’s no secret that the winner of the Heisman is often the best player on the best team in the country. Before placing any wagers on this future, check out our National Championship Odds.
Looking for more ways to bet on college football before the season starts? You are going to want to check out our regular-season win totals page.
Season already started? Build your bankroll with premium NCAAF picks from one of our expert handicappers. You are also going to want to visit our college football odds section. It’s the perfect place to stay up to date on the latest totals and spreads. Plus, you can shop lines from some of the top sportsbooks in the industry.
Heisman History – Invitees, Standings, Voting Polls & Past Champions
List of Finalists Invited to Heisman Ceremony in 2019
- Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
- Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
- Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
Voting Poll Standings Last 5 Years
|1st||Kyler Murray (Oklahoma)||Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)||Lamar Jackson (Louisville)||Derrick Henry (Alabama)||Marcus Mariota (Oregon)|
|2nd||Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama)||Bryce Love (Stanford)||Deshaun Watson (Clemson)||Christian McCaffrey (Stanford)||Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin)|
|3rd||Dwayne Haskins (Ohio State)||Lamar Jackson (Louisville)||Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)||Deshaun Watson (Clemson)||Amari Cooper (Alabama)|
|4th||Will Grier (West Virginia)||Saquon Barkley (Penn St)||Dede WestBrook (Oklahoma)||Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)||Trevone Boykin (TCU)|
|5th||Gardner Minshew (Washington State)||Rashaad Penny (San Diego St)||Jabrill Peppers (Michigan)||Keenan Reynolds (Navy)||J.T. Barrett (Ohio State)|
Every Player Who has Won the Heisman Award
|2013||Jameis Winston||Florida State|
|2012||Johnny Manziel||Texas A&M|
|2011||Robert Griffin III||Baylor|
|2006||Troy Smith||Ohio State|
|2000||Chris Weinke||Florida State|
|1995||Eddie George||Ohio State|
|1993||Charlie Ward||Florida State|
|1992||Gino Torretta||Miami (FL)|
|1988||Barry Sanders||Oklahoma State|
|1987||Tim Brown||Notre Dame|
|1986||Vinny Testaverde||Miami (FL)|
|1984||Doug Flutie||Boston College|
|1980||George Rogers||South Carolina|
|1975||Archie Griffin||Ohio State|
|1974||Archie Griffin||Ohio State|
|1973||John Cappelletti||Penn State|
|1964||John Huarte||Notre Dame|
|1962||Terry Baker||Oregon State|
|1957||John David Crow||Texas A&M|
|1956||Paul Hornung||Notre Dame|
|1955||Howard Cassady||Ohio State|
|1953||John Lattner||Notre Dame|
|1950||Vic Janowicz||Ohio State|
|1949||Leon Hart||Notre Dame|
|1947||John Lujack||Notre Dame|
|1944||Les Horvath||Ohio State|
|1943||Angelo Bertelli||Notre Dame|