It’s no secret the SEC is one of the strongest conferences in the country. From 2006 to 2012, the SEC produced 7 straight national champions.
With that said, this article isn’t about the Power 5 hierarchy. It’s about how serious they take the game in the South.
The 14 teams that make up the league don’t take losing lightly. Each defeat stings as much as the other.
Handicapping SEC Football Teams Playing With Revenge
Revenge is a huge motivator on the college gridiron. It’s a factor that must be considered when you do your NCAAF handicapping.
Given how much they love the game, I wanted to see how big a motivator it was in the SEC. Let’s take a look at the results. You can also check out my 2019 NCAA Football predictions for more insight on the upcoming season.
Overall Results & Key Situations
|Favorite (-)||217-82 (72.6%)||161-130-8 (55.3%)||99-117 (45.8%)|
|Underdog (+)||148-523 (22.1%)||338-321-12 (51.3%)||211-232-18 (47.6%)|
|Home||222-286 (43.7%)||254-244-10(51.0%)||169-180-7 (48.4%)|
|Away||130-285 (31.3%)||223-184-8 (54.8%)||123-154-9 (44.4%)|
|Neutral||15-358 (28.3%)||24-27-2 (47.1%)||21-18-2 (54.8%)|
|Lost Prev Fav||135-98 (57.9%)||131-95-7 (58.0%)||76-85-4 (47.2%)|
|Lost Prev Dog||227-509 (30.8%)||366-357-13 (50.6%)||233-264-14 (46.9%)|
|Overall||367-609 (38.2%)||501-455-20 (52.4%)||313-352-18 (47.1%)|
The data collected is from the 2000 season up until the end of last season. The overall results definitely support revenge as a key factor in who covers the spread.
Teams who lost the previous meeting covered the number at a 52.4% clip in the next meeting. While it might not seem like a great winning percentage, you could have bet it blindly and shown a profit.
As I do every time I find an angle that suggest there’s an edge, I try to narrow down the results to where it’s more profitable.
The first thing I looked at was whether it mattered if a team was a favorite or underdog in the upcoming game. As you can see, you want to focus more on teams that are favored to win on the betting line. They are cashing at a 55.3% rate, while underdogs are only coming in 51.3% of the time.
The next thing I checked out was the site of the contest. It turns out that playing on the road is the ideal scenario. Road teams playing with revenge in the SEC are 223-184-8 (58.4%), compared to home teams that are only hitting at 51.0%.
This makes sense. Teams typically alternate sites each year, so a team playing on the road will not be happy about losing at home the previous season.
The last situation I took into account was the performance of these teams based on if they were a favorite or underdog in the previous meeting. Definitely want to look for teams who lost the last meeting laying points. They are hitting at an alarming 58.0% (131-95-7) rate.
Profitable College Football Revenge System for Betting SEC
Best System – Revenging Home Loss as Favorite
|76-55 (58.0%)||81-47-3 (63.3%)||42-45-2 (48.3%)|
Knowing what we found from the previous section, I combined the best results to form a super system that has hit at an amazing rate. You want to look for road teams playing with revenge who lost the previous matchup as a favorite.
A team in this spot has gone an impressive 81-47-3 (63.3%) against the spread since 2000.
I didn’t include teams as a favorite in the current meeting for a couple of reasons. One there was only a marginal difference in the ATS winning percentage. The second was I wanted to be able to show what teams qualify for this system this season.
2017 Results (6-1-2 ATS)
- LSU (Pick’em) @ Florida (Won 17-16 ) – Win
- Missouri (+9) @ Kentucky (Lost 34-40) – Win
- Georgia (-17.5) @ Vanderbilt (Won 45-14) – Win
- Vanderbilt (+7) @ South Carolina (Lost 27-34) – Push
- Auburn (-15) @ Texas A&M (Won 42-27) – Push
- Mississippi State (-12) @ Arkansas (Won 28-21) – Loss
- Texas A&M (-2) @ Ole Miss (Won 31-24) – Win
- Ole Miss (+14.5) @ Mississippi State (Won 31-28) – Win
- Georgia (+3.5) vs Alabama (Lost 23-26) – Win *National Championship Game*
2018 Results (4-3 ATS)
- South Carolina (-1.5) @ Kentucky (Lost 10-24) – Loss
- Florida (+7) @ Mississippi State (Won 13-6) – Win
- Missouri (+1) @ South Carolina (Lost 35-37) – Loss
- Vanderbilt (+11.5) @ Kentucky (Lost 7-14) – Win
- Tennessee (+9) @ South Carolina (Lost 24-27) – Win
- Mississippi State (-13) @ Ole Miss (Won 35-3) – Win
- Tennessee (+3.5) @ Vanderbilt (Lost 13-38) – Loss
2019 Qualifiers (Date)
- Florida @ Kentucky (9/24)
- Alabama @ South Carolina (9/24)
- Missouri @ Kentucky (10/26)
- Auburn @ LSU (10/26)
- Florida @ Missouri (11/16)