Jimmy Boyd in 
Contrarian betting means betting against the popular, majority opinion – essentially doing the opposite of what most other bettors are doing. It’s often called “fading the public.”
In plain terms, if the public is overwhelmingly betting on one team or outcome, a contrarian bettor will wager on the other side. The idea is to side with the sportsbook rather than the crowd since the crowd (casual bettors) is wrong more often than not over the long run.
Sportsbooks thrive because the public loves favorites, popular teams, and obvious narratives, which leads to inflated lines that savvy contrarians can exploit. By going against the grain, you’re looking to grab the value created when odds are adjusted to account for public bias.
Contrarian bettors essentially put themselves in the same position as “the house.” Remember the old saying that the house always wins? Betting against the public is a way to align with the house’s side of a wager.
Of course, the public won’t be wrong every single time, so the contrarian sports handicapping approach is about picking your spots where the odds are tipped in your favor by public misperception.
In the sections below, we’ll break down how this strategy works across major sports and how you can start fading the public intelligently and have more success with your sports betting.
How to Bet Contrarian & Fade the Public to Win
Contrarian betting is simple in theory: find out where “Joe Public” is loading up, and go the other way. In practice, you’ll want to use a few tips and tools to identify those situations and capitalize on them. Here are some key strategies for betting against the public:
- Find Heavy Public Action: First, you need to determine what the public is betting. This usually means looking at betting splits – the percentage of bets (tickets) on each side of a game. Numerous websites and sportsbooks share this data for free. For example, if you see that 75% or more of bets are coming in on Team A, that’s a strong sign Team A is the popular side. The higher the percentage of public bets on one side, the more “lopsided” the action and the more attractive the contrarian play on the other side might be.
- Fade the Popular Side: Once you’ve identified who the public loves, consider betting the opposite. If everyone is hammering Team A, you’d put your money on Team B. For instance, if 75% of bettors back the Dallas Cowboys as 6-point favorites, a contrarian might take the points with their opponent. You’re effectively fading the public – placing a bet that the majority of casual bettors aren’t making. This can feel counter-intuitive, but remember, sportsbooks often prosper by taking the opposite side of public bettors’ wagers.
- Compare Bet % vs. Money %: Not all bets are equal. It’s crucial to check not just how many bets are on a side, but how much money is on each side. Sportsbooks often provide a breakdown of the percentage of total money (handle) on each team in addition to the percentage of bets. If one team has a much smaller share of bets but a larger share of the money, that indicates sharp (professional) bettors are backing the less popular side. Example: Imagine Team X is getting only 20% of the bets but accounts for 75% of the money — that’s a huge tip-off that big bettors are on Team X. In these cases, a contrarian bettor will lean toward the side with a higher money percentage and lower ticket count, because it suggests smart money is fading the public play.
- Monitor Line Movement: Pay attention to how the odds or point spread move from the opening line to the current line. If the public is heavily on one side, you’d normally expect the line to move in that side’s favor (making the popular team less profitable to bet). But if you see the opposite happen – say Team A opened as a 6-point favorite and is getting ~80% of bets, yet the line drops to Team A -4.5 – that’s called a reverse line movement. The line moved against the public action, a strong signal that sharp money poured in on Team B (the underdog). When you spot the line moving contrary to the betting percentages, it’s a flashing sign of a good contrarian opportunity. In the scenario above, jumping on Team B +4.5 after that reverse line move would align you with the sharp side. Sportsbooks respect sharp bettors’ opinions, so odds moving against the popular side means the book is adjusting to limit their risk from those sharp wagers.
- Target Big Games and Popular Teams: Contrarian betting works best in games that attract tons of public attention – think NFL primetime matchups, playoff games, or marquee NBA showdowns. The more casual bettors in the market, the more likely one side is being overbet due to hype or bias. For example, a Monday Night Football game with a famous team (like the Cowboys or Patriots) will draw a flood of public money, which often skews the line. Those are ideal spots to look for value on the unpopular side. In contrast, a low-profile matchup (say a mid-season MLB game between two small-market teams) might not have enough public action to create a contrarian edge. Go where the public money is – the larger the betting volume on one side, the more potential value on the other.
By using these strategies in combination – checking betting percentages, watching where the big money is, and tracking line movement – you can effectively fade the public and make more informed contrarian bets. It’s all about identifying when the odds have shifted too far due to public bias and seizing that opportunity.
Why Sportsbooks Adjust Lines Based on Betting Action
Sportsbooks aren’t in the business of picking winners; they’re in the business of balancing risk and making a profit. When one side of a bet is getting heavy action, bookmakers will often adjust the line or odds to encourage more bets on the other side.
The reason is simple: if too many people bet on one outcome, the book faces a big payout liability if that popular outcome hits. By moving the point spread or moneyline, the sportsbook makes the popular side less attractive to bet (and the other side more attractive), which helps distribute bets more evenly across both outcomes. This practice is sometimes called “shading” the line toward the public favorite.
For example, if the majority of bets are coming in on the New York Yankees at -150 odds, a sportsbook might shift the odds to -160 or -170. This higher price (worse payout for Yankees backers) may entice some bettors to take the other side (the underdog) and thus balance the book.
In point spread terms, if the Kansas City Chiefs are 7-point favorites and everyone is backing them, the book might move the line to -7.5 or -8 to draw more interest on the underdog.
The goal for the sportsbook is to mitigate risk – ideally, they want close to equal money on both sides so that they make their profit (the vigorish) regardless of who wins.
These line adjustments are exactly what creates value for contrarian bettors. When a line is moved to offset one-sided betting, the team getting less public support often ends up with more favorable odds or an inflated point spread.
In other words, the unpopular side becomes a better bet than it was originally, purely because the sportsbook had to react to the public influx on the other side. Contrarian bettors seek out those situations: you’re betting on the side where the odds have shifted in your favor thanks to the bookmakers adjusting to heavy public action.
Keep in mind that sportsbooks also factor in public biases ahead of time. They know, for instance, that casual bettors love wagering on popular teams like the Lakers or Cowboys, and on high-scoring overs.
So the opening lines might already be a bit inflated toward those popular choices. This means the value on the contrarian side can exist from the moment lines are released, not just after later adjustments.
Bottom line: Sportsbooks move lines to balance their books and manage risk, and those movements (or even initial line shades) create the openings that contrarian bettors use to their advantage .
Contrarian Betting Across Different Sports
While the core concept of contrarian betting is the same everywhere (betting against the crowd), its effectiveness can vary across different sports. Here’s how fading the public tends to play out in the major American sports:
- NFL (Football): The NFL is king when it comes to public betting. Games (especially in primetime or playoffs) attract huge betting volumes from casual fans, which often leads to pronounced public biases. Favorites and overs are particularly popular with NFL bettors. This means underdogs and unders can carry contrarian value in the right spots. If 70%+ of bets are on a hyped favorite, taking the underdog against the spread is a classic contrarian NFL play. Historically, NFL teams receiving very low public support have covered the spread at slightly profitable rates over the long term. Big-market teams like the Dallas Cowboys or New England Patriots often get heavy public love, so betting on their lesser-regarded opponent can be fruitful when the line is inflated. Key tip: NFL contrarian bettors focus on the point spread since that’s where most public money goes. High-profile games (Thanksgiving, Monday Night Football, playoffs) where one side is the clear public darling offer some of the best opportunities to fade the public in football.
- NBA (Basketball): The NBA also sees significant public betting, especially on nationally televised games and around superstar-driven teams. Casual bettors lean toward favorites and popular franchises (Lakers, Warriors, etc.), and they often prefer the over (who doesn’t love a high-scoring game?). As a result, you can often find value on underdogs and unders in the NBA when a big-name team or a scoring narrative is being overbet by the public. For instance, if the Los Angeles Lakers are a public favorite one night (say 80% of bets on them), the contrarian play might be to take the underdog plus the points. Additionally, late-season games can offer contrarian angles – maybe the public piles on a team that “must win” for playoff position, driving the line up, while a contrarian sees value in the less motivated opponent getting extra points. Similar to the NFL, focus on the spread and totals where public bias is evident; moneylines in the NBA are less bet by the public. When there is a reverse line move against a popular NBA team (e.g., the line gets shorter despite public backing the favorite), that’s a clue sharp like the other side – a situation for the contrarian to pounce.
- MLB (Baseball): Baseball is a different beast because most bets are on the moneyline (picking winners, since run spreads are usually set at ±1.5). Public bettors love big-name pitchers and successful franchises. This can lead to heavy action on favorites when an ace like Gerrit Cole or Clayton Kershaw is on the mound, or when the Yankees or Dodgers are playing a weaker team. Sportsbooks know this and often shade the line toward those popular favorites. That means the underdog moneyline often comes with extra value. A contrarian baseball bettor might consistently take underdogs, especially in games where a large majority of bets are on the favored team. For example, if 80% of bets are on the Yankees at -200, the underdog at +180 might actually be a smart value play (you only need to win that bet ~36% of the time to break even, and if the true odds are higher, you profit long-term). Also, watch totals: the public tends to bet overs, but on occasion, they’ll hammer an under if two star pitchers face off. If you ever see the public heavy on an under (say 75% of bets on a low total), a contrarian could take the over for a contrarian “against the grain” play. In short, MLB contrarian betting often means riding with unfashionable teams and uncomfortable overs/unders that make the average bettor say “yuck.” Over a long season with many games, those contrarian values can add up. (Note: Because baseball betting is so moneyline-focused, contrarians concentrate on moneyline dogs and worry less about run line bets.)
- NHL (Hockey): Hockey has the smallest betting handle of the four major sports, which means pure contrarian opportunities are more limited. Fewer casual bettors wager on the NHL, so the “public” is a smaller group and often includes sharper fans. That said, there are still scenarios where a popular team or a trendy storyline (say a team on a big winning streak or a superstar player getting hot) causes the public to lean one way. If the Toronto Maple Leafs or another public-favorite team is getting a lopsided majority of bets, the contrarian move would be to back their opponent at plus money. Underdogs in hockey win frequently enough to make this viable (upsets are common when a hot goalie steals a game). However, because NHL betting volume is low compared to NFL/NBA, you have to be more selective. There might not be a true “public” to fade on many nightly hockey games. A good guideline: look at big events like the Stanley Cup Playoffs or Winter Classic games where casual fans jump in – those are spots where public bias might tip the scales. In general, fading the public is less pronounced in the NHL due to the smaller betting pool. So, while the contrarian mindset (betting undervalued sides) is still useful, the classic “public vs. sharp” splits are harder to find in hockey.
Examples of Contrarian Betting Paying Off
Nothing drives the point home better than real-world examples of the public falling on its face – and contrarian bettors cashing in. Here are a few notable instances across sports where going against the public paid dividends:
- College Football (Oregon vs. Colorado 2023): Early in the 2023 college football season, Coach Deion “Prime” Sanders had the Colorado Buffaloes riding a wave of hype after some big wins. The public went crazy backing Colorado as underdogs against the Oregon Ducks – everyone loved the Prime Time storyline. However, sharp contrarian bettors were loading up on Oregon. In this matchup, more than 90% of bets were reportedly on Colorado, yet the point spread moved further in Oregon’s favor, a clear reverse line move showing smart money on the Ducks. The result? Oregon blew out Colorado in a lopsided game, easily covering the spread. The public (“dumb money”) chasing the feel-good story got crushed, while those who faded the hype and backed the Ducks (“smart money”) won comfortably.
- Mayweather vs. McGregor Fight: In the 2017 boxing match between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Conor McGregor, the public bettors were absolutely enamored with McGregor – an MMA fighter making his pro boxing debut – to upset one of the greatest boxers of all time. Thousands of small bets poured in on McGregor as the big underdog, largely due to his popularity and puncher’s chance, while the sharp money was all over Mayweather despite the steep odds. The sportsbook reports showed the majority of tickets on McGregor, but the vast majority of the money on Mayweather – a classic case of public vs. sharps. Bookmakers even had to adjust the odds, making Mayweather’s price shorter (less expensive) than it should have been because casual fans kept betting Con onor. As expected, Mayweather won easily (10th-round TKO), and contrarian bettors who took the “boring” side by laying the big odds on Floyd cashed their tickets. It was a textbook example that sometimes the contrarian play is actually a favorite if the public irrationally piles on the underdog (also known as fading a “trendy dog”).
- NFL Regular Season Shock (2023 Week 3 – Cowboys at Cardinals): The Dallas Cowboys entered Week 3 of the 2023 season 2-0 and were huge 12-point favorites on the road against the lowly Arizona Cardinals, who many thought to be one of the worst teams in the league. The public was all over Dallas; after all, the Cowboys had blown out their first two opponents and Arizona was 0-2. Sportsbooks had as much as 80-90% of bets on the Cowboys to cover the spread, and many bettors threw Dallas into moneyline parlays assuming it was a sure win. In contrarian fashion, sharp bettors noticed that the point spread wasn’t climbing much above 12 (some books even ticked down to 11.5), hinting that big money quietly backed Arizona. In a stunning result, Arizona beat Dallas outright 28-16, one of the biggest upsets of the season. Public bettors were left dumbfounded (and tore up countless parlays), while the handful of contrarians who backed the unfashionable Cardinals enjoyed a massive payday. This game illustrated how going against the public, even on a seemingly “obvious” favorite, can pay off when the odds and situation are right.
There are many examples like these across all sports – whenever you hear about a “shocking upset” or the favorite getting crushed, chances are the public was on the losing side and the contrarians were smiling. Whether it’s an unranked college basketball team upsetting a Top-5 squad, an underdog winning the Super Bowl against a team everyone thought was unbeatable, or a heavy favorite in baseball getting shelled by an underdog pitcher, the pattern is similar. When the public zigs, a contrarian zags – and sometimes that zigzag leads straight to the cashier’s window.
Common Pitfalls When Fading the Public
Before you dive in and start betting on every underdog in sight, it’s important to understand that contrarian betting is not foolproof. Some common mistakes and misconceptions can trip up new contrarian bettors. Here are a few pitfalls to avoid when betting against the public:
- Blindly Fading Everything: “The public is on it, so I must bet the other side.” This approach is too simplistic. Not every heavily bet favorite or popular team is a bad bet. Sometimes the public and sharps actually agree on the right side, or the favorite is just the correct play. If you blindly bet against the public in every situation, you’ll end up on a lot of long-shot bets with no edge. Contrarian betting is about finding value, not simply contrarianism for its own sake. Context matters – look for cases where there’s clear evidence of line inflation or public bias (such as dramatic splits like 80% vs 20%, or a reverse line move). In a game where the betting percentages are 55% vs 45%, there’s not a strong contrarian angle – that’s balanced action.
- Ignoring Why the Line Moved: If you see a line move, don’t automatically assume it’s a sharp move or a contrarian signal. Sometimes lines move due to news or injuries or other logical factors, not public betting. For example, if an NFL line moves from -3 to -6 because the underdog’s star quarterback got hurt, that’s not the public or sharps being contrarian – that’s just an injury adjustment. Betting the underdog in that scenario just because the public is now heavy on the favorite would be dangerous since the line move is justified. Always try to filter out whether a line move is due to true betting action vs. external factors. Fading the public when the line move is caused by real news is a mistake – you might be walking into a bad bet because the underdog really did get worse. Do your homework on injuries, weather, or other relevant updates before blindly taking the “sharp side” of a move.
- Betting Too Early or Too Late: Timing matters for contrarian betting. If you bet too early, you might not have a clear picture of where the public money will end up. Many casual bettors place wagers on game day, so what looks like a 50/50 split two days out could end up 70/30 by kickoff. On the flip side, if you wait too long to fade a public side, the line could move and erase much of the value. For instance, if you wanted to fade the public on a team that opened +7 but by game time it’s +5 (due to sharp action), you’ve lost a lot of the cushion in the spread. Chasing a line after a big move is a common mistake – the value has already been grabbed by earlier bettors. Try to anticipate public heavy games and monitor the lines; sometimes the best time to bet contrarian is when the line hits its peak inflation (often just before game time when public money is fully baked in). Other times, jumping in early when you see a bad line that you expect the sharps to hit can lock in a great number before it moves.
- Forgetting Other Handicapping Factors: Don’t let the excitement of betting against the public completely override fundamental handicapping. At the end of the day, you still want to bet on teams that have a reasonable chance to succeed. Use contrarian signals as one piece of the puzzle. If a matchup heavily favors the team the public is on (say an elite team versus a truly awful team), be cautious: the line might be inflated, but the better team might still cover with ease. Make sure to consider things like team matchups, situational spots (rest, travel, motivation), and other strategies. Contrarian betting works best when you marry it with solid analysis. The public might be overlooking a key detail – if you identify that and it aligns with a contrarian play, that’s the sweet spot. But if you ignore everything except “bet against the public,” you’ll end up on some bad sides. As an example, contrarians avoid betting against the public on very small-market sports or obscure games , because the betting percentages in those cases can be misleading or not impactful. Focus on situations where the contrarian indicators line up with rational betting logic about the game itself.
Finally, remember that even the smartest contrarian bettors will have losing days (because sometimes the public does win). Don’t get discouraged if a popular team covers the spread and your contrarian pick doesn’t pan out in a given game. The goal is that over the long run, consistently taking value positions against public bias will yield profits. Avoiding the pitfalls above will help ensure you’re executing the strategy in a smart way and not just gambling for gambling’s sake.
Final Thoughts
Contrarian betting, or fading the public, is a time-tested strategy in sports wagering. It leverages one fundamental truth: sportsbooks and sharp bettors consistently profit from the typical biases and mistakes of the betting public.
By positioning yourself against the masses in select situations, you aim to be on the side of inflated odds and hidden value. We’ve explained how this approach works across NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL, and given you examples of contrarian wins and tips to do it right.
The key takeaway is that contrarian betting isn’t about being a contrarian in every single bet — it’s about recognizing when public perception has warped a line too far.
When you see that opportunity, you step in and take the other side. Do it with a clear strategy (using betting percentages, line movement, etc., as your guideposts) and with discipline.
If you avoid the common mistakes and stay patient, betting against the public can tilt the odds a bit more in your favor over time.
So next time you hear everyone at the sportsbook or on Twitter saying a particular pick is a “sure thing,” take a moment. That buzz you’re hearing? That’s the sound of public money piling up – and it might be your cue to quietly go the other way.
Contrarian betting is all about thinking differently than the crowd. It can feel lonely backing a team no one else likes, but when that final whistle blows and the public is scratching their heads, you’ll be the one celebrating a smart win.
In sports betting, just like investing, sometimes the best feeling is being on the right side of an “I told you so” moment.
Good luck and happy contrarian betting!
