Jimmy Boyd in 
Nearly the entire country will be focusing on picking a perfect bracket this week. It’s reported that roughly 45 million Americans participate in March Madness by entering some kind of tournament bracket contest.
However, many fans prefer college basketball betting on individual games or tracking the NCAA basketball championship odds. The tournament is a massive draw for sportsbooks, with legal wagering in the U.S. projected to hit a record $4 billion for the 2026 tournament. With that much action on the line, it’s worth looking at how seeds have actually performed against the spread (ATS) over the last decade of tournament play.
NCAA Tournament ATS Results by Seed
Below are the ATS records for each seed throughout the tournament. We focus on the overall performance because breaking these down by specific rounds often results in sample sizes too small to be predictive.
Seeding is a tool used by the selection committee to rank quality, but the betting line is the great equalizer. As you’ll see below, some seeds traditionally “outplay” their ranking in the eyes of the Vegas oddsmakers.
Overall ATS Records by Seed (Since 1985)
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 145 | 144 | 4 | 50.2% |
| 2 | 100 | 120 | 10 | 45.5% |
| 3 | 102 | 103 | 3 | 49.8% |
| 4 | 89 | 92 | 3 | 49.2% |
| 5 | 79 | 76 | 2 | 51.0% |
| 6 | 58 | 67 | 3 | 46.4% |
| 7 | 76 | 63 | 3 | 54.7% |
| 8 | 60 | 59 | 5 | 50.4% |
| 9 | 58 | 55 | 5 | 51.3% |
| 10 | 51 | 56 | 3 | 47.7% |
| 11 | 92 | 71 | 2 | 56.4% |
| 12 | 62 | 53 | 2 | 53.9% |
| 13 | 43 | 49 | 1 | 46.7% |
| 14 | 34 | 49 | 0 | 41.0% |
| 15 | 43 | 38 | 3 | 53.1% |
| 16 | 69 | 66 | 3 | 51.1% |
Key Takeaways for Your 2026 Wagers
While you shouldn’t blindly bet based on these numbers, a few clear trends have emerged:
- The No. 11 Seed Advantage: Statistically, the No. 11 seed is the most profitable to back ATS. They often feature high-major teams that “underperformed” in the regular season but have the talent to keep games close or win outright.
- Beware the No. 2 Seeds: Historically, No. 2 seeds have the lowest cover rate among the top four lines. Public perception often inflates their spreads, making them value-fades in the early rounds.
- The No. 15 “Cinderella” Cover: Interestingly, No. 15 seeds cover at a higher rate (53.1%) than No. 13s or No. 14s. This is likely because the point spreads are so large that a 15-seed only needs to keep the game respectable to cash the ticket.
If you’re looking for more than just betting trends and want to see how these teams advance straight-up, check out our seed history for deep-run statistics.
If you like this kind of statistical analysis, you might also enjoy our ATS records for each point spread.
