Odds on the NCAA Basketball tournament

Below are the most recent odds to win the 2017 NCAA Tournament. The most recent numbers will be under the “Now” column. Teams will be ordered based on who has the best chance of cutting down the nets.

We will be back to look at the odds at several points throughout the season, so be sure to check back often.  Our college basketball lines pages let’s you compare the live numbers from several top books.

Favorites to Win the 2017 NCAA Basketball Tournament

TeamNowProb.20-Mar13-Mar2-Mar2-Feb18-Jan4-Jan15-Dec9-Nov13-Jun6-Apr
North Carolina+14041.67%+500+685+600+900+900+1100+750+1600+1200+1200
Gonzaga+18035.71%+650+950+800+800+1400+2000+3300+5000+6600+6600
Oregon+55015.38%+1800+2500+1200+2500+2500+2200+2500+1600+2000+2000
South Carolina+75011.76%+5000+20000+20000+10000+20000+15000+7500+20000+20000+20000
Kansas+475+835+700+700+1100+1100+900+700+1000+1000
Arizona+650+1125+1800+1000+3300+5000+5000+1600+2200+2200
UCLA+900+600+600+900+550+500+750+5000+6600+6600
Kentucky+1000+985+1200+500+600+600+650+700+650+600
Florida+1200+3000+2500+5000+7500+10000+10000+10000+7500+7500
Baylor+1600+4000+2800+2200+1400+2200+2200+15000+6600+6000
West Virginia+1800+3500+2800+1600+2000+3300+5000+6600+2800+2800
Wisconsin+1800+9000+3300+2500+2500+2200+2200+1600+2500+2500
Purdue+2000+3000+2800+5000+4000+5000+6600+5000+3300+3300
Butler+4000+7500+6600+5000+5000+5000+10000+15000+10000+10000
Xavier+7500+40000+30000+10000+5000+3300+3300+4000+2500+2500
Villanova+845+1000+1000+900+1100+1400+2000+850+800
Duke+910+1100+1000+900+500+475+375+450+450
Louisville+1575+1600+2000+2500+2500+3300+4000+1000+1000
Florida State+3050+2500+2000+1200+3300+12500+15000+15000+15000
Virginia+4000+2000+2500+2800+2800+2800+3300+2000+2000
SMU+5000+5000+15000+30000+30000+20000+25000+7500+7500
Iowa State+6000+12500+30000+20000+20000+10000+7500+4000+4000
Michigan+7000+15000+15000+15000+12500+6600+10000+6600+6600
Notre Dame+8000+7500+5000+4000+10000+10000+20000+10000+10000
Wichita State+8000+10000+15000+12500+10000+5000+15000+6600+6600
Minnesota+9500+10000+30000+25000+25000
Maryland+10000+5000+5000+20000+30000+15000+6600+3300+3300
Michigan State+10000+6600+6600+4000+4000+3300+2000+1200+1200
Cincinnati+10000+7500+10000+12500+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000
Oklahoma State+10000+15000+15000+20000+15000+15000+30000+25000+25000
St Mary’s+12000+12500+10000+6600+5000+6600+20000+20000+20000
Virginia Tech+20000+10000+50000+12500+12500+20000+30000+30000+30000
Northwestern+20000+30000+20000
Rhode Island+20000+30000+30000+15000+12500+7500
Middle Tennessee+25000
Miami+27500+12500+30000+20000+25000+20000+7500+4000+4000
Creighton+30000+10000+5000+3300+3300+3300
USC+30000+20000+15000+20000+20000+20000+15000+15000+15000
Dayton+30000+30000+30000+30000+30000+30000+20000+15000+15000
VCU+30000+30000+30000+30000+25000+20000+15000+15000
Seton Hall+30000+50000+50000+20000+20000+15000+15000+5000+5000
Kansas State+30000+50000+30000+30000+30000+25000+25000+25000
Marquette+30000+50000+30000+30000+30000+25000+25000+25000
Arkansas+30000+50000+50000+50000+25000+25000+25000+25000
Vanderbilt+30000+25000+20000+10000+10000
Wake Forest+30000+30000+30000+30000
Providence+30000
Nevada+50000
Princeton+85000
East Tennessee State+200000
Vermont+500000
Winthrop+500000
Bucknell+500000
New Mexico State+500000
UNC Wilmington+500000
Florida Gulf Coast+500000
Troy+999999
Jacksonville State+999999
Northern Kentucky+999999
North Dakota+999999
Mount St. Mary’s+999999
New Orleans+999999
North Carolina Central+999999
Texas Southern+999999
South Dakota State+999999
Iona+999999
Kent State+999999
UC Davis+999999

The field of 68 has been reduced to the Final 4. By this time next week, we will be just hours away from the Championship Game.

On one side of the bracket we have No. 7 South Carolina (East) taking on No. 1 Gonzaga (West). The other matchup features No. 1 North Carolina (South) against No. 3 Oregon (Midwest).

Not a big surprise that the Tar Heels (+140) are the odds on favorite to win it all. North Carolina has been one of the favorite bets to win the title since the odds were first released. When we looked at the odds last year right after the Tar Heels lost to Villanova, they had the 6th best odds of any team at +1200.

The only other team with odds of 20 to 1 or better was Oregon right on the number at +2000. The big surprise with the Ducks is most wrote them off after one of their best players was injured in the Pac-12 Tournament. Oregon is sitting at +550 leading up to their showdown with North Carolina.

As for Gonzaga, the Bulldogs opened up at +6600 or 66 to 1 last April. It wasn’t until January when this team finally started getting some respect. They are getting plenty of it now, as they have the second best odds behind the Tar Heels at +180.

The Cinderella of the group is without question South Carolina. The Gamecocks were rarely, if ever, viewed as a team that could win it all. South Carolina was a 200 to 1 long shot (+20000) when the odds were first released and when the tournament started. Only two of the last 10 champions have had preseason odds of 40 to 1 or worse. Those both being UConn in 2014 (+7000) and 2011 (+4000).

Past Champions & Their Chances of Winning the Final Four

The table below lists the championship team for each season. The preseason column shows each team’s preseason chances to win the tournament.

Since the 2007 tournament, the Connecticut Huskies have the two biggest upsets in terms of overcoming their preseason odds. Both of those title games were interesting because of the seeds.

At 70 to 1 prior to the 2013-2014 season, UConn pulled off one of the most unlikely championships at any level. They entered the tournament as a 7 seed and went on to win as the second-lowest winning seed in NCAA history (#8 Villanova – 1985). It was the highest total seeds to make the championship game when the Huskies as a 7 seed took down the 8 seed Kentucky.

2011 was also interesting because they beat another 8-seed. This time it was the Butler Bulldogs. So, two massive upsets for UConn, but then again they had the easiest title games in recent memory too. If you think you can pick a massive underdog like this, just remember to look at our tournament winners by seed. You’ll see the probability of a team worse than 3-see of winning it all is very low.

SeasonTeamPreseason
2015-2016Villanova+2000
2014-2015Duke+1000
2013-2014Connecticut+7000
2012-2013Louisville+800
2011-2012Kentucky+550
2010-2011Connecticut+4000
2009-2010Duke+1200
2008-2009North Carolina+450
2007-2008Kansas+1000
2006-2007Florida+530

Handicapping Who Has the Best Chance to Win

So how do you go about picking which team will conquer March Madness and cut down the nets? There is a lot that goes into handicapping postseason games. Throw motivation out the window. Nobody is taking these games lightly.

Does a team get to place close to home? They are worth a look. Is there a team that is over-rated? That’s not saying they can’t win it all, but it will typically drive all value out of their line. Kentucky is 2015 was a good example. They came into the tournament undefeated and everyone expected them to run the table. The number got down to less than even money and of course, they were beat.

Instead, look at a few sleepers that have a chance. Don’t ignore how each seed has performed. Trust coaches with a history of success over unknowns. Lastly, remember that no team seeded worse than 8th has made the championship game.

Don’t want such a long shot but really like a team? Check out their odds to win their conference tournament. Not nearly as much competition or level of difficulty required.