Below are the most recent odds to win the 2019 NCAA Tournament. The most recent numbers will be under the “Now” column. Teams will be ordered based on who has the best chance of cutting down the nets.
We will be back to look at the odds at several points throughout the season, so be sure to check back often. Our college basketball lines pages let’s you compare the live numbers from several top books.
Betting Odds & Favorites to Win the 2019 NCAA Basketball Tournament
The 2018-19 College Basketball regular-season is in full swing and this is really special time of year for fans and players. The start of conference play is upon us and this is where we really start to learn which of the contenders are the real deal.
One team that we know is the real deal is the Duke Blue Devils and it’s why they are the overwhelming favorites to win it all at +180. To give you an idea of just how big a gap the books see between Duke and the rest of the field, the next best odds belong to Michigan at +900.
The Wolverines are followed closely by Gonzaga at +1000, Kansas at +1100, Virginia at +1000, Tennessee at +1200 and Nevada at +1600. There are just 4 other teams who have odds better than 30 to 1. That’s Kentucky (+2000), North Carolina (+2300), Auburn (+2500) and Michigan State (+2800).
The next tier of teams would be Villanova at +4500, Texas Tech at +5000 and Florida State at +5500. Not to far behind them are West Virginia (+6500), Syracuse (+7000), Virginia Tech (+7000), Kansas State (+7500) and Mississippi State (+7500).
After that there’s a whole bunch of teams (15) from 80 to 1 to 100 1. There are 26 other teams with odds all the way to 200 to 1, so you for those of you that like long shots and see a Cinderella story unfolding in March, this is where you will want to be looking.
Now that conference season is here, we will be updating the odds a lot more frequently (at least once a month, hopefully every other week), so be sure to check back often.
Past Champions & Their Chances of Winning the Final Four
The table below lists the championship team for each season. The preseason column shows each team’s preseason chances to win the tournament.
Since the 2007 tournament, the Connecticut Huskies have the two biggest upsets in terms of overcoming their preseason odds. Both of those title games were interesting because of the seeds.
At 70 to 1 prior to the 2013-2014 season, UConn pulled off one of the most unlikely championships at any level. They entered the tournament as a 7 seed and went on to win as the second-lowest winning seed in NCAA history (#8 Villanova – 1985). It was the highest total seeds to make the championship game when the Huskies as a 7 seed took down the 8 seed Kentucky.
2011 was also interesting because they beat another 8-seed. This time it was the Butler Bulldogs. So, two massive upsets for UConn, but then again they had the easiest title games in recent memory too. If you think you can pick a massive underdog like this, just remember to look at our tournament winners by seed. You’ll see the probability of a team worse than 3-see of winning it all is very low.
Handicapping Who Has the Best Chance to Win
So how do you go about picking which team will conquer March Madness and cut down the nets? There is a lot that goes into handicapping postseason games. Throw motivation out the window. Nobody is taking these games lightly.
Does a team get to place close to home? They are worth a look. Is there a team that is over-rated? That’s not saying they can’t win it all, but it will typically drive all value out of their line. Kentucky is 2015 was a good example. They came into the tournament undefeated and everyone expected them to run the table. The number got down to less than even money and of course, they were beat.
Instead, look at a few sleepers that have a chance. Don’t ignore how each seed has performed. Trust coaches with a history of success over unknowns. Lastly, remember that no team seeded worse than 8th has made the championship game.
Don’t want such a long shot but really like a team? Check out their odds to win their conference tournament. Not nearly as much competition or level of difficulty required.