Odds on the NCAA Basketball tournament

Below are the most recent odds to win the 2017 NCAA Tournament. The most recent numbers will be under the “Now” column. Teams will be ordered based on who has the best chance of cutting down the nets.

We will be back to look at the odds at several points throughout the season, so be sure to check back often.  Our college basketball lines pages let’s you compare the live numbers from several top books.

Favorites to Win the 2017 NCAA Basketball Tournament

TeamNowProb.4-Jan15-Dec9-Nov13-Jun6-Apr
UCLA+55015.38%+500+750+5000+6600+6600
Kentucky+60014.29%+600+650+700+650+600
Duke+90010.00%+500+475+375+450+450
North Carolina+90010.00%+1100+750+1600+1200+1200
Villanova+90010.00%+1100+1400+2000+850+800
Kansas+11008.33%+1100+900+700+1000+1000
Florida State+12007.69%+3300+12500+15000+15000+15000
Gonzaga+14006.67%+2000+3300+5000+6600+6600
Baylor+14006.67%+2200+2200+15000+6600+6000
West Virginia+20004.76%+3300+5000+6600+2800+2800
Wisconsin+25003.85%+2200+2200+1600+2500+2500
Oregon+25003.85%+2200+2500+1600+2000+2000
Louisville+25003.85%+2500+3300+4000+1000+1000
Virginia+28003.45%+2800+2800+3300+2000+2000
Indiana+33002.94%+1800+1600+3300+2000+2000
Creighton+33002.94%+3300+3300
Arizona+33002.94%+5000+5000+1600+2200+2200
Michigan State+40002.44%+4000+3300+2000+1200+1200
Purdue+40002.44%+5000+6600+5000+3300+3300
Notre Dame+40002.44%+10000+10000+20000+10000+10000
Xavier+50001.96%+3300+3300+4000+2500+2500
Butler+50001.96%+5000+10000+15000+10000+10000
St Mary’s Ca+66001.49%+5000+6600+20000+20000+20000
NC State+66001.49%+6600+5000
Syracuse+75001.32%+3300+2200+2000+5000+5000
Florida+75001.32%+10000+10000+10000+7500+7500
Wichita State+125000.79%+10000+5000+15000+6600+6600
Virginia Tech+125000.79%+12500+20000+30000+30000+30000
Cincinnati+125000.79%+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000
Michigan+150000.66%+12500+6600+10000+6600+6600
Rhode Island+150000.66%+12500+7500
South Carolina+200000.50%+15000+7500+20000+20000+20000
Georgetown+200000.50%+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000
Oklahoma State+200000.50%+15000+15000+30000+25000+25000
Iowa State+200000.50%+20000+10000+7500+4000+4000
Texas A&M+200000.50%+20000+15000+10000+6600+6600
Seton Hall+200000.50%+20000+15000+15000+5000+5000
USC+200000.50%+20000+20000+15000+15000+15000
Miami+200000.50%+25000+20000+7500+4000+4000
Maryland+200000.50%+30000+15000+6600+3300+3300
San Diego State+200000.50%+30000+20000+20000+20000+20000
Ohio State+300000.33%+20000+10000+15000+10000+10000
Connecticut+300000.33%+20000+12500+4000+3300+3300
California+300000.33%+20000+15000+6600+10000+10000
Clemson+300000.33%+20000+20000+50000+25000+25000
SMU+300000.33%+30000+20000+25000+7500+7500
VCU+300000.33%+30000+25000+20000+15000+15000
Dayton+300000.33%+30000+30000+20000+15000+15000
Kansas State+300000.33%+30000+30000+25000+25000+25000
Marquette+300000.33%+30000+30000+25000+25000+25000
Colorado+500000.20%+30000+20000+30000+15000+15000
BYU+500000.20%+30000+25000+50000+15000+15000
Pittsburgh+500000.20%+30000+50000+25000+25000+25000
Illinois+500000.20%+30000+50000+30000+25000+25000
Arkansas+500000.20%+50000+25000+25000+25000+25000
Alabama+500000.20%+50000+50000+30000+25000+25000
Washington+20000+12500+20000+50000+50000
Oklahoma+30000+15000+7500+5000+5000
Texas+20000+4000+5000+5000
Vanderbilt+25000+20000+10000+10000
Auburn+25000+50000+25000+25000
UNLV+30000+30000+20000+20000
Temple+30000+50000+50000+50000
Iowa+50000+10000+7500+7500
Nebraska+50000+30000+30000+30000
Arizona State+20000+10000+10000
Tennessee+20000+20000+20000
Mississippi State+25000+10000+10000
Georgia+30000+25000+25000
Georgia Tech+30000+25000+25000
Memphis+30000+25000+25000
Minnesota+30000+25000+25000
Ole Miss+30000+25000+25000
Wake Forest+30000+30000+30000
St John’s+30000+100000+100000
LSU+50000+10000+10000
Boise State+50000+25000+25000
Colorado State+50000+25000+25000
Oregon State+50000+25000+25000
Missouri+50000+30000+30000
Stanford+50000+30000+30000
Massachusetts+50000+50000+50000
Penn State+50000+50000+50000
St. Joseph’s+50000+50000+50000
Penn State+50000+50000
Boston College+50000+100000+100000
TCU+50000+100000+100000
Washington State+50000+100000+100000
Valparaiso+50000

We take another look at the odds to win the 2017 NCAA Tournament. At this point we are well into conference play. We are starting to get a better idea of who are the elite teams that can win it all.

According to the books, the odds on favorite is UCLA, who comes in at +550. Last time we checked, I mentioned how the Bruins have really come out of nowhere this season. When we first looked at the odds back in April, UCLA was sitting at +6600. They were still at +5000 prior to the season starting in early November. Now they are the team to beat and are a lot of peoples favorite to cut down the nets.

While UCLA is the front runner right now, a lot can change between now and March. In fact, they aren’t too far ahead of SEC power Kentucky, who comes in at +600. After the Wildcats we got Duke, North Carolina and Villanova all at +900. No other team is listed with odds at 10 to 1 or better.

We know those 5 teams will be serious threats come tournament time, but there’s plenty more to watch out for. For example, Kansas (+1100), Florida State (+1200), West Virginia (+2000) Wisconsin (+2500), Oregon (+2500), Louisville (+2500), Virginia (+2800) and Indiana (+3300) are all teams I think have the talent to win it all.

Looking even further down the list, there’s more teams that you can’t count out. Arizona (+3300), Michigan State (+4000) Notre Dame (+4000), Purdue (+4000) and Butler (+5000) are all teams to keep an eye on.

Past Champions & Their Chances of Winning the Final Four

The table below lists the championship team for each season. The preseason column shows each team’s preseason chances to win the tournament.

Since the 2007 tournament, the Connecticut Huskies have the two biggest upsets in terms of overcoming their preseason odds. Both of those title games were interesting because of the seeds.

At 70 to 1 prior to the 2013-2014 season, UConn pulled off one of the most unlikely championships at any level. They entered the tournament as a 7 seed and went on to win as the second-lowest winning seed in NCAA history (#8 Villanova – 1985). It was the highest total seeds to make the championship game when the Huskies as a 7 seed took down the 8 seed Kentucky.

2011 was also interesting because they beat another 8-seed. This time it was the Butler Bulldogs. So, two massive upsets for UConn, but then again they had the easiest title games in recent memory too. If you think you can pick a massive underdog like this, just remember to look at our tournament winners by seed. You’ll see the probability of a team worse than 3-see of winning it all is very low.

SeasonTeamPreseason
2015-2016Villanova+2000
2014-2015Duke+1000
2013-2014Connecticut+7000
2012-2013Louisville+800
2011-2012Kentucky+550
2010-2011Connecticut+4000
2009-2010Duke+1200
2008-2009North Carolina+450
2007-2008Kansas+1000
2006-2007Florida+530

Handicapping Who Has the Best Chance to Win

So how do you go about picking which team will conquer March Madness and cut down the nets? There is a lot that goes into handicapping postseason games. Throw motivation out the window. Nobody is taking these games lightly.

Does a team get to place close to home? They are worth a look. Is there a team that is over-rated? That’s not saying they can’t win it all, but it will typically drive all value out of their line. Kentucky is 2015 was a good example. They came into the tournament undefeated and everyone expected them to run the table. The number got down to less than even money and of course, they were beat.

Instead, look at a few sleepers that have a chance. Don’t ignore how each seed has performed. Trust coaches with a history of success over unknowns. Lastly, remember that no team seeded worse than 8th has made the championship game.

Don’t want such a long shot but really like a team? Check out their odds to win their conference tournament. Not nearly as much competition or level of difficulty required.