Below are the most recent odds to win the 2020 NCAA Tournament. The most recent numbers will be under the “Now” column. Teams will be ordered based on who has the best chance of cutting down the nets.
We will be back to look at the odds at several points throughout the season, so be sure to check back often. Our college basketball lines pages let’s you compare the live numbers from several top books.
Betting Odds & Favorites to Win the 2020 NCAA Basketball Tournament
|New Mexico State||+25000|
|North Dakota State||+200000|
|Prairie View A&M||+200000|
Congrats to Virginia for winning the 2019 National Championship. It was quite the comeback story. The beauty of sports is that as soon as one season comes to a close, the build and anticipation for the next starts immediately.
We are less than 24 hours removed from Virginia beating Texas Tech and we are already taking our first look at the odds to win the 2020 NCAA Tournament.
The books like what John Calipari has cooking in Lexington. Kentucky is the odds on favorite to win it all at +600. They are just slightly ahead of Duke (+650), Virginia (+750) and Michigan State (+800).
The big thing to keep in mind with the initial odds that come out, is they are almost completely based on how this past season finished up.
While we know guys like Duke’s Zion Williamson and R.J. Barrett won’t be back for their sophomore season, there’s a bunch of guys we don’t know about. A guy leaving early for the NBA can decimate some teams that don’t recruit at the level of Duke, Kentucky and all the other big boys.
Simply based on what we have seen work of late, I would look for veteran teams that are returning a bunch of junior/seniors, with a top of the line coach. The entire Final Four was basically made up of veteran teams who could score, but are built on their defense.
I also think it’s interesting to note that there’s teams with odds who didn’t even make the NCAA Tournament. The best odds of any team who wasn’t in the field of 68 is Arizona at +2800. Texas, which won the NIT is next in line at +4000. You then have both Xavier and Memphis at +6600, followed by both USC and UCLA at +10000.
We will continue to monitor and update the college basketball odds during the offseason.
Past Champions & Their Chances of Winning the Final Four
The table below lists the championship team for each season. The preseason column shows each team’s preseason chances to win the tournament.
Since the 2007 tournament, the Connecticut Huskies have the two biggest upsets in terms of overcoming their preseason odds. Both of those title games were interesting because of the seeds.
At 70 to 1 prior to the 2013-2014 season, UConn pulled off one of the most unlikely championships at any level. They entered the tournament as a 7 seed and went on to win as the second-lowest winning seed in NCAA history (#8 Villanova – 1985). It was the highest total seeds to make the championship game when the Huskies as a 7 seed took down the 8 seed Kentucky.
2011 was also interesting because they beat another 8-seed. This time it was the Butler Bulldogs. So, two massive upsets for UConn, but then again they had the easiest title games in recent memory too. If you think you can pick a massive underdog like this, just remember to look at our tournament winners by seed. You’ll see the probability of a team worse than 3-see of winning it all is very low.
Handicapping Who Has the Best Chance to Win
So how do you go about picking which team will conquer March Madness and cut down the nets? There is a lot that goes into handicapping postseason games. Throw motivation out the window. Nobody is taking these games lightly.
Does a team get to place close to home? They are worth a look. Is there a team that is over-rated? That’s not saying they can’t win it all, but it will typically drive all value out of their line. Kentucky is 2015 was a good example. They came into the tournament undefeated and everyone expected them to run the table. The number got down to less than even money and of course, they were beat.
Instead, look at a few sleepers that have a chance. Don’t ignore how each seed has performed. Trust coaches with a history of success over unknowns. Lastly, remember that no team seeded worse than 8th has made the championship game.
Don’t want such a long shot but really like a team? Check out their odds to win their conference tournament. Not nearly as much competition or level of difficulty required.