Below are the most recent odds to win the 2019 NCAA Tournament. The most recent numbers will be under the “Now” column. Teams will be ordered based on who has the best chance of cutting down the nets.
We will be back to look at the odds at several points throughout the season, so be sure to check back often. Our college basketball lines pages let’s you compare the live numbers from several top books.
Betting Odds & Favorites to Win the 2019 NCAA Basketball Tournament
|San Diego State||+20000||+15000||+10000|
|Stephen F. Austin||+50000|
|New Mexico State||+50000|
|South Dakota State||+100000|
|MD Baltimore County||+100000|
Less than 24-hours from Villanova’s convincing win over Michigan in the National Championship Game, we turn our focus to the odds to win the 2018-19 college basketball title.
The favorite to cut down the nets next year is none other than Duke, who is listed at +500. No surprise to see the Blue Devils at the top of the list. While Duke will lose several key players to the NBA like Marvin Bagley III, Wendell Carter Jr. and Trevon Duval, as well as senior Grayson Allen, they will reload with the nationals top recruiting class, which includes the top three prospects in the country (Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett and Cam Reddish).
Who is considered the biggest threat to the Blue Devils? According to the oddsmakers it’s Kansas, who comes in at +700, just slightly ahead of Villanova and Kentucky, who are both at +800.
North Carolina is next up at +1200, followed by Virginia at +1800, Auburn and Gonzaga at +2000, Michigan State at +2200 and Michigan at +2600.
Chances are that the winner will come from this group of teams, as 10 of the last 12 champions have opened up with odds of +2000 or better (see table below). For those wondering, Villanova opened at +1200 last year, which is the exact same odds that North Carolina opened with before winning the title in the 2016-17 campaign.
With that said, there’s a lot that could shake up these odds before we get to the start of next season. The biggest determinant is which players leave early for the NBA and which of those top players stick around for another year. It will be a couple months before we know for sure, as the deadline for early entrants to withdrawal from the NBA Draft isn’t until June 11th.
Be sure to check back often, as we will continue to update the odds during the offseason and provide checkpoints for you to go back and look at to see how the odds have changed over time.
Past Champions & Their Chances of Winning the Final Four
The table below lists the championship team for each season. The preseason column shows each team’s preseason chances to win the tournament.
Since the 2007 tournament, the Connecticut Huskies have the two biggest upsets in terms of overcoming their preseason odds. Both of those title games were interesting because of the seeds.
At 70 to 1 prior to the 2013-2014 season, UConn pulled off one of the most unlikely championships at any level. They entered the tournament as a 7 seed and went on to win as the second-lowest winning seed in NCAA history (#8 Villanova – 1985). It was the highest total seeds to make the championship game when the Huskies as a 7 seed took down the 8 seed Kentucky.
2011 was also interesting because they beat another 8-seed. This time it was the Butler Bulldogs. So, two massive upsets for UConn, but then again they had the easiest title games in recent memory too. If you think you can pick a massive underdog like this, just remember to look at our tournament winners by seed. You’ll see the probability of a team worse than 3-see of winning it all is very low.
Handicapping Who Has the Best Chance to Win
So how do you go about picking which team will conquer March Madness and cut down the nets? There is a lot that goes into handicapping postseason games. Throw motivation out the window. Nobody is taking these games lightly.
Does a team get to place close to home? They are worth a look. Is there a team that is over-rated? That’s not saying they can’t win it all, but it will typically drive all value out of their line. Kentucky is 2015 was a good example. They came into the tournament undefeated and everyone expected them to run the table. The number got down to less than even money and of course, they were beat.
Instead, look at a few sleepers that have a chance. Don’t ignore how each seed has performed. Trust coaches with a history of success over unknowns. Lastly, remember that no team seeded worse than 8th has made the championship game.
Don’t want such a long shot but really like a team? Check out their odds to win their conference tournament. Not nearly as much competition or level of difficulty required.