Below are the most recent odds to win the 2017 NCAA Tournament. The most recent numbers will be under the “Now” column. Teams will be ordered based on who has the best chance of cutting down the nets.
We will be back to look at the odds at several points throughout the season, so be sure to check back often. Our college basketball lines pages let’s you compare the live numbers from several top books.
Favorites to Win the 2017 NCAA Basketball Tournament
|St Mary’s Ca||+10000||0.99%||+6600||+5000||+6600||+20000||+20000||+20000|
|San Diego State||+20000||+30000||+20000||+20000||+20000||+20000|
As the calendar turns to February, here’ an updated look at the odds to win the 2017 NCAA Tournament. It’s amazing to think that we just a little over a month away from March Madness. Teams have already played more than half of their conference schedules. Before you know it, conference tournaments will be here and the push to be included in the field heats up.
Last time we checked in on the odds (1/18), UCLA was the odds on favorite at +550. Just slightly ahead of Kentucky (+600). Quite a bit has changed in the past two weeks.
Kentucky is now the favorite at +500. The lowest we have seen the Wildcats since we started checking on the odds back in April. Behind them is Kansas at +700. Pretty big jump for the Jayhawks, who are sitting at +1100 last time we checked. Next up is Gonzaga, who comes in at +800. The Bulldogs are a perfect 22-0 and ranked No. 1 in both the AP and Coaches Polls.
After the top 3 we have quite a few teams in the mix that could win it all. In fact, I think you could make a strong case for every team up to Virginia at +2500. That’s 12 more teams with a shot to cut down the nets in the NCAA Tournament.
There’s also some other teams out there that I think could surprise. One of those could be a team like Maryland, who is sitting at +5000. The Terrapins are tied for 1st in the Big Ten with Wisconsin at 8-1 and are 20-2 overall. No one seems to want to believe in this team, but with a player like Melo Trimble they could certainly surprise.
We will continue to update the odds, so be sure to check back often.
Past Champions & Their Chances of Winning the Final Four
The table below lists the championship team for each season. The preseason column shows each team’s preseason chances to win the tournament.
Since the 2007 tournament, the Connecticut Huskies have the two biggest upsets in terms of overcoming their preseason odds. Both of those title games were interesting because of the seeds.
At 70 to 1 prior to the 2013-2014 season, UConn pulled off one of the most unlikely championships at any level. They entered the tournament as a 7 seed and went on to win as the second-lowest winning seed in NCAA history (#8 Villanova – 1985). It was the highest total seeds to make the championship game when the Huskies as a 7 seed took down the 8 seed Kentucky.
2011 was also interesting because they beat another 8-seed. This time it was the Butler Bulldogs. So, two massive upsets for UConn, but then again they had the easiest title games in recent memory too. If you think you can pick a massive underdog like this, just remember to look at our tournament winners by seed. You’ll see the probability of a team worse than 3-see of winning it all is very low.
Handicapping Who Has the Best Chance to Win
So how do you go about picking which team will conquer March Madness and cut down the nets? There is a lot that goes into handicapping postseason games. Throw motivation out the window. Nobody is taking these games lightly.
Does a team get to place close to home? They are worth a look. Is there a team that is over-rated? That’s not saying they can’t win it all, but it will typically drive all value out of their line. Kentucky is 2015 was a good example. They came into the tournament undefeated and everyone expected them to run the table. The number got down to less than even money and of course, they were beat.
Instead, look at a few sleepers that have a chance. Don’t ignore how each seed has performed. Trust coaches with a history of success over unknowns. Lastly, remember that no team seeded worse than 8th has made the championship game.
Don’t want such a long shot but really like a team? Check out their odds to win their conference tournament. Not nearly as much competition or level of difficulty required.