Sean Murphy Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

Metropolitan Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and New York at 7 pm et on Monday.

This has been a higher-scoring series than expected with three of the four games totalling exactly seven goals including Game 4 on Saturday, which went Carolina's way by a 4-3 score. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the scene shifts back to Manhattan for another potential elimination game. The Rangers rank third in goals allowed per game in these playoffs, giving up just 2.4. After falling behind 2-0 in the blink of an eye on Saturday, they'll need to tighten things up if they want to close out the Canes at home on Monday. Carolina ranks ninth among the 16 playoff teams in terms of goals allowed per contest but has given up just shy of 2.9, illustrating how things tend to get a lot tighter in the postseason. After allowing at least three goals in all four games in this series to date, I do think the Canes have a better defensive performance loaded up for Monday. Facing elimination, they have no choice but to lock things down. Take the under (10*).

My selection is on Oakland over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Monday.

The Astros delivered a 9-3 thrashing of the Tigers to secure a series win in Detroit yesterday. I don't like the spot for them on Monday, however, as they return home to host an A's club licking its wounds after dropping two of three games in Seattle. Oakland continues to see the ball well, ranking fourth in the majors in OPS over the last seven days. On the season, the A's rank a respectable 15th in baseball in OPS vs. right-handed pitching. They'll have the opportunity to tee off on struggling rookie Spencer Arrighetti on Monday. He checks in sporting a 5.20 FIP and 2.02 WHIP on the season. A's starter Ross Stripling got lit up against the Rangers last time out but still owns a solid 3.71 FIP through eight starts this season. This game likely comes down to the bullpens with neither starter likely to work deep into the contest. Note that the Oakland 'pen has logged a 3.40 ERA and 1.21 WHIP on the season with 10 saves converted and only five blown. Meanwhile, the Astros 'pen has recorded a 4.57 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with only five saves converted and eight blown. Take Oakland (8*).

Monday MLB Free play. My selection is on Texas over Cleveland at 8:05 pm et on Monday.

The Rangers had a rough series in Colorado as they were swept by the lowly Rockies over the weekend. I look for them to bounce back as they return home to host the Guardians on Monday. Tanner Bibee will take the ball for Cleveland. After finishing second in American League Rookie of the Year voting last season, Bibee has struggled here in 2024 recording a 4.00 FIP and 1.36 WHIP. He'll be facing a Rangers club that will be happy to be back home where it ranks eighth in the majors in OPS this season. That's not to mention the fact that Texas holds down the sixth spot in terms of OPS vs. right-handed pitching. Michael Lorenzen will counter for the Rangers. He's been slightly worse than Bibee this season but the good news is that he's held current Guardians hitters to just six hits (two extra base hits) in 31 at-bats over the course of his career. Cleveland isn't really hitting right now, checking in 25th in baseball in OPS over the last seven days. Take Texas.

Central Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Colorado over Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Monday.

The Stars have taken back control of this series thanks to winning Games 2 and 3. Note that you would have to go back to 2019-20 to find the last time the Stars won three straight meetings with the Avalanche (part of a four-game streak). I look for Colorado to answer back on Monday. Dallas is 3-9 (-10.0 net games) after scoring four goals or more in a win over a division opponent over the last three seasons including an 0-3 (-5.8 net games) record in that situation this season. The Stars are also a long-term 28-31 (-14.3 net games) after giving up one goal or less in their previous game including a 7-12 (-12.0 net games) mark this season. Meanwhile, Colorado checks in 23-11 (+7.5 net games) when seeking revenge for a loss by three goals or more against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 10-4 (+4.8 net games) record this season. The Avs are also 23-10 (+11.2 net games) when coming off consecutive losses over the last three seasons including a 9-3 (+6.0 net games) mark in that spot this season. Take Colorado (10*).

My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Dallas at 9:30 pm et on Monday.

The Mavericks left it all on the floor in Saturday's win over the Thunder, giving them a 2-1 series lead. Here, I look for the Thunder to bounce back from consecutive defeats and even the series at two games apiece before heading back to Oklahoma City. Note that the Thunder are 29-15 ATS when coming off a loss by six points or less over the last three seasons including a 5-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're also 52-37 ATS in their last 89 contests when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent including a 7-5 ATS record this season. Meanwhile, the Mavs are 19-29 ATS in their last 48 games following a win by six points or less. They haven't defeated the Thunder in three straight meetings since a four-game streak back in 2021-22. Dallas hasn't covered the spread in three straight matchups in this series since a five-game streak in 2017-18. Take Oklahoma City (8*).