Scott Rickenbach Free Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach MLB Game #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:10 ET - Ryne Stanek gets the starts for the Rays but, of course, Tampa Bay uses the "full game bullpen" approach when he is on the mound so he only goes 1 or 2 innings anyway. The reason I like the over so much here is that the Red Sox are plenty familiar with Tampa's relievers at this late point in the season and being one of the best home hitting teams in the majors means we should see plenty of runs from Boston here. Of course Fenway Park is a hitter-friendly venue and also favorable weather is expected tonight as well. As for the Red Sox starter, Brian Johnson, he has given up 10 runs (8 earned) in the 12 innings spanning his last two starts. The lefty has allowed 5 homers in those two starts and the Rays swung the bats much better in yesterday's game versus the Yankees than what the final score would indicate. That said, this one has "slugfest" written all over it. The Red Sox averaged 7.2 runs per game in their 9-game road trip that wrapped up on Wednesday. Only 18 of Boston's last 47 games when playing after a day off have stayed under the total. Look for the over to improve to 3-0 in Johnson's last 3 starts and to improve to 5-2 on the season in Stanek's starts away on natural fields this season. 10* OVER the total in Boston

Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #915 Friday 8* OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:05 ET - I don't mean to sound overconfident about this pick but I truly have only one concern about not cashing it. That concern is that rain prevents this one from going 9 innings. The fact is that I have been looking for the opportunity to fade Lance Lynn as I have watched him pitch and his stuff is just not that good. He has put up some surprisingly good numbers since coming to the Yankees from the Twins but he has faced bad teams like the Orioles and White Sox and then he faced the free-swinging Rangers. Also, he got the Rangers at home and had he faced them in Texas (where they are a much better hitting team) the results likely would have been different. In any event, now Lynn is facing a Blue Jays team that crushed him earlier this season for 6 earned runs in 5 innings. Also, I like the fact that Toronto enters this game having gone 5-3 in their last 8 road games. The Blue Jays have scored an average of 6.2 runs per game in those 5 wins away from home and I look for them to pound Lynn tonight. The concern for the Blue Jays tonight is that Marcus Stroman is dealing with a blister issue that forced him to exit his most recent start. Though he is ready to go tonight, the fact is that Stroman has allowed 12 runs (10 earned) in the 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts against the Yankees. Also, he is an ugly 2-5 this season with a 5.33 ERA in his road starts. The over is 17-7 when Toronto is a road dog in a range of +125 to +175. Also, the Blue Jays are 3-1 to the over in Stroman's last 4 starts. 8* OVER the total in the New York Yankees game

Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #902 Friday 8* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs (+) vs New York Mets @ 6:05 ET - The money line on this match-up is currently as high as a -170 but by taking the Phillies on the run line we can lay the 1.5 runs and get a comeback payout as high as a +140 with this play as of the time of this posting. Of course the benefit is no big juice to lay plus an extra sweet payout. The drawback is that Philadelphia must win the game by 2 or more runs. However, how unlikely is that anyway if they do win? Certainly one has to like the chance of a Phillies win here with staff ace (and All-Star) Aaron Nola on the mound. That said, note that Philadelphia's last 15 wins have featured 0, that's right, ZERO wins by less than a 2-run margin. As for the Mets, 26 of their last 34 losses have come by 2 or more runs. Note that, although Noah Syndergaard is certainly a solid pitcher, the Mets are a long-term 80-116 in games against teams with a winning record. The Phillies are a perfect 4-0 in home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less this season. Also, the Phils are a fantastic 14-6 this season as a home favorite in a range of -125 to -175. Grab the value with the run line here. 8* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 runs (+)

Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Game #371 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 8:30 ET - The Redblacks scored only 24 points versus Montreal last week but this was despite Ottawa QB Trevor Harris throwing for nearly 500 yards! In other words, the low point total versus the Alouettes was certainly a bit of a fluke. With both the Redblacks and Blue Bombers off of wins and with Winnipeg possibly peeking ahead to their huge game at league-best Calgary next week and Ottawa possibly peeking ahead to their bye week, I would not be surprised to see both defenses struggle in this match-up. There is simply a natural let-up in cases like this in terms of defensive intensity and the fact that this is a non-divisional match-up also adds to the likelihood of plenty of points. The over is 13-5 in Ottawa's last 18 Friday games. As for Winnipeg, the over is 10-4 in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Also, in weeks 10 through 15 of a season, the over is on an 8-3 run in Blue Bombers games. Look for a huge game from QB Matt Nichols here for the home team but the Bombers defense is not going to slow down a red hot Trevor Harris either and this one turns into a shootout. 10* OVER the total in Winnipeg

Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFLX Game #412 Friday 8* Carolina Panthers (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 7:30 ET - There is a common misconception that beating NFLX is just about fading a team that won the prior week or going against a team that lost the prior week. However, take a look at the results so far this preseason with that theory. The Bears lost the Hall of Fame Game and then also lost in Week 1. The Ravens won the Hall of Game and then also won in Week 1. Now, week 2 got underway last night and the Eagles lost again (just like in Week 1) to the Patriots (whom had also won in Week 1). The Packers and Steelers each had won in Week 1 so their match-up last night didn't fit the system. As for the Jets and Redskins, yes theirs fit the system with Jets off of a win and Redskins off of a loss and it did cash as Washington won. However, the Redskins won that game by the slimmest of margins on a game ending field goal. The point being that this system is already just 1-3 with the one win (Washington) certainly unimpressive while the losses with this system (Bears loss was tight) did include Ravens blasting their foe in Week 2 and the Patriots crushing the Eagles tonight. Now you can see why I am fading the public misconception (and the market move here) and going against the 0-1 Dolphins with the 1-0 Panthers in Week 2. This line opened up at a 4 in a number of the big shops earlier this week. Now it is down to a 3 as of game day morning and I am grabbing the extra value here. The odds makers had this at 4 earlier this week with plenty of good reason. The Dolphins have allowed 26 points or more in 3 of their last 4 preseason games dating back to last season. Overall, Miami has allowed an average of 24.5 points per game in their 4 preseason road games the past two seasons. Carolina has allowed 19 points or less in all 4 of their preseason home games the past two seasons. The Panthers have allowed an average of just 14.8 points per game in those 4 preseason home games. Given those numbers and knowing Carolina is the better and deeper team and has the home/road edge here and you can plainly see why I am backing the Panthers here and laying the small number. 8* CAROLINA