ASA – American Sports Analysts Handicapper

Don't miss ASA's 10* TRIPLE PLAY in college hoops today!  THREE TOP GAMES for the price of one - first game tips at 4:00 PM ET!  ASA has hit 70% of their CBB Tops to start the season and it's time to make BIG MONEY on Saturday with 3 BIG WINNERS!

ASA CBB PLAY ON Illinois -6.5 over UNLV, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET

There is a reason the team with the 2-7 record is favored over the team with the 4-3 record.  The Illini have played a brutal schedule which currently ranks as the 5th most difficult in college basketball.  They have already played 7 teams ranked inside the top 100 including 4 ranked inside the top 30.  Only 3 of their 9 games have been played at home.  Their losses have come at the hands of Gonzaga, Nebraska, Iowa State, Georgetown, Xavier, Notre Dame, and Ohio State.  Many of those games were tight including a 6 point loss to #1 Gonzaga and a 2-point loss @ Notre Dame.  UNLV is on the opposite end of the spectrum as they have played all home games and faced only ONE team ranked inside the top 100 (lost to Cincinnati).  Despite one of the easiest schedules in the nation, the Rebels already have 3 losses.  Despite playing inferior competition, the Rebs have shot very poorly from deep at 27% (322nd nationally) and they turn the ball over at an alarming rate (24% which is 346th in the country).  That plays right into the Illini’s hands as they are very aggressive defensively and turn opponents over at a rate of 25% (7th nationally).  Illinois loves shooting the 3 and they are very good at it hitting almost 40% (25th in the country).  Also remember they have done that facing a number of very good teams.  Now they will launch against a UNLV defense that ranks 297th at defending the 3.  The Illini will definitely welcome the step down in competition here.  They have faced only 2 teams ranked outside the top 100 (UNLV ranks 140th) and won those games by 19 & 39 points.  Last year UNLV won this match up at home by 7 points despite taking 17 fewer shots.  This year they are on the road where the Rebs are a putrid 5-22-5 ATS their last 32 away from home.  Illinois is hungry for a win and they get their revenge on Saturday.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Over 137 Points - Wisconsin @ Marquette, Saturday at 5:00 PM ET

Being in Wisconsin we follow these two teams very closely and feel we are getting some value on the OVER here.  Marquette just played Kansas State a week ago and that total was set the same as this one.  Based on the numbers, it shouldn’t be the same, this one should be higher.  That’s because Wisconsin and KSU are very similar defensively (13th and 5th in defensive efficiency respectively) but the Badgers are far better than the Cats in almost every category.  KSU & Marquette scored 154 total points in that game and we expect these two to reach into the 140’s at minimum.  Last year’s total in this game was set at 141 and Wisconsin was nowhere near as good offensively and the two totaled 145 points.  While Wisconsin still plays slow, they push a bit more than past years and their offensive production is being overlooked here.  They rank 17th nationally in offensive efficiency and they are the 12th best 3-point shooting team in the nation.  And that’s facing a tough schedule having already played 7 top 100 teams (16th most difficult strength of schedule thus far).  Marquette’s defense looks improved but they have allowed 70+ points vs every top 100 team they’ve played this year (4).  The offense is good just as it was last year with solid shooters all over the court.  The only 2 teams to hold Marquette to less than 70 points were Kansas (4th in defensive efficiency) who held them to 68 and UMBC in the first game of the year which was a blowout so Marquette called off the dogs (Won 67-42).  We have 2 very good shooting teams in this game and while the defenses will have their moments, we expect both to push into the 70’s in this game so the OVER is the play.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma State -2.5 over Houston, Saturday at 4:00 PM ET

Houston comes into this game with an undefeated record, however they have played the 2nd easiest schedule in the nation thus far.  The Cougars have played 6 home games and just 1 road game this season and they have faced only one team ranked inside the top 70.  Five of their seven opponents are currently ranked 240th or lower.  This is a tough spot for Houston as after this game they return home to face LSU next week which is a huge revenge game for them.  They lost by 3 points @ LSU and missed two 3-pointers in the final 10 seconds in an attempt to send the game to OT.  Okie State, on the other hand, has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation thus far.  They are just 4-4 but have played only 2 home games this year.  The Cowboys are coming off back to back losses @ Minnesota & @ Tulsa and really need a win here, their first home game since November 18th.  Despite playing all but 2 of their games away from home, OSU has shot the ball very well ranking 26th nationally in eFG% (56%) and 10th nationally in 3-point FG% (43%).  Houston relies heavily on the 3 point shot (39% of their points – 35th nationally) which can be tough to lean on when playing away from home.  We think Houston comes in a bit flat while OSU is backed into a corner at home.  With this line sitting at OSU -1, simply pick the winner here and we feel that will be the Cowboys.

ASA CBB 10* PLAY ON Nebraska -7.5 over Creighton, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

The Huskers have the best team they’ve had in a long time and if they are ever going to knock off their little brother, today is the day.  The Huskers have lost 7 straight years vs the Blue Jays and this is perhaps their most anticipated home game of the season.  They’ve been waiting for this one and we expect the Huskers to be at the top of their game as they attempt to win their 17th straight home game dating back to last year.  Nebraska should have even more incentive as they are coming off a loss @ Minnesota earlier this week.  It was a game they led by 10 with just over 8:00 minutes remaining only to see the Gophers outscore them 27-10 down the stretch.  The Nebraska defense was poor in that game allowing Minny to hit 52% of their shots.  However, that is a rarity with this team as they have been outstanding defensively this year ranking 4th nationally in eFG% defense (11th nationally defending the 3 & 9th nationally defending inside the arc).  After that poor effort, we can expect a high level performance defensively on Saturday.  This is Creighton’s first true road game of the season and we like fading teams on the road that rely heavily on the 3-point shot.  The Blue Jays are the definition of that as over 40% of their points come from deep (16th nationally).  Hot shooting often doesn’t travel well and this Blue Jay team cannot rely on their defense to keep them in the game if they aren’t on from deep.  They rank just 250th nationally in eFG% defense and they will struggle slowing down a very talented Nebraska offense in this game.  In their meeting last year, the Huskers led at half @ Creighton and the Blue Jays only led by 3 with under 1:00 minute remaining in what turned out to be a 75-65 win.  Nebraska returns 52 of their 65 points scored in that game while this young Creighton team (301st nationally in experience) returns just 23 of their 75 points.  The Huskers continue to be undervalued in our opinion with a 6-2 ATS record this year and a 24-6-1 spread mark dating back to last year.  They are 21-1 here since the start of last season with their only loss coming by 1-point last season vs Kansas.  This is the game they really want and we have a feeling that Nebraska will roll in this one.

ASA play on: #704 Indiana Pacers -4 over Sacramento Kings, 7:05PM ET - We’re betting a number here not a team as the value clearly lies with Indiana in this match up. If you haven’t followed the NBA this year then you probably don’t know how well the Kings have played. They are 13-11 SU and are building momentum in the West. Sacramento is coming two straight road wins but they came against the two worst teams in the league, at Phoenix and Cleveland. Indiana has won two straight games since losing to this same Kings team in Sacramento on Dec. 1st. It was a close game down to the wire which the Kings pulled out at home 111-110. The interesting part about that game is the fact that Indiana was favored by -2-points THERE and are now laying just -4-points at home. Indiana is 7-4 SU at home this year with an average margin of victory of +6.1PPG. The Kings do have a positive road differential but it hasn’t been a tough schedule away from home for them. They also have done well when playing without rest this year while the Pacers are 4-0 SU in that scheduling situation. Bet the best number on the board today...bet Indiana!