ASA – American Sports Analysts Handicapper

ASA play on: Phoenix Suns +6.5 over Dallas Mavericks, 8:30PM ET

This situation is ideal for a wager on the Suns who are off a loss and catch the Mavs off a win last night. So not only are the Mavericks playing the second night of a back to back, but they are also off a big win against OKC and they have a bigger game on deck against instate rival Houston. Phoenix is off a close road loss in Memphis but had won three straight road games prior to that against the Spurs, Celtics and Knicks. Dallas is just 6-7 ATS when laying 7 or more points at home this season so it’s not like they are a great heavy home favorite. Phoenix on the other hand has been a great underdog this year with a 7-2 spread record when catching 5 plus points. Dallas is 13-11 SU at home this season with an average differential of +6PPG (10th in the NBA). Phoenix is 10-11 SU away from home with the 12th best overall road differential of minus just 1.9PPG. The Mavs are 4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS when playing without rest but the average margin of victory is less than 5PPG. Phoenix has covered 8 of the last ten in this series and 5 of six on this court. Phoenix hangs around the entire game and will have a chance to steal a win late. Grab the points!

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Rutgers -2.5 over Purdue, Tuesday at 8 PM ET

The home/road dichotomy of these two teams is quite dramatic.  Rutgers is a perfect 14-0 at home this year winning by an average score of 73-56.  The Knights hit over 47% of their shots at the RAC while allowing opponents to make only 35%.  Purdue is 1-5 on the road this year with their only win coming @ Ohio, the 9th rated team in the 12 team MAC.  The Boilers are 0-4 on the road in Big 10 play and in those conference road games they have scored 37, 50, 56, and 62 (in regulation) points.  They are shooting only 35% away from home and making less than 24% of their 3-pointers.  Don’t expect Purdue to do much offensively tonight vs a Rutgers defense that ranks 4th nationally in defensive FG%, 12th in 3-point % allowed, and 9th in defensive efficiency.  They have allowed less than 60 points in 10 of their 14 home games.  Facing a Purdue offense that ranks dead last in the Big 10 in offensive efficiency AND eFG% (conference games only) plays perfectly into what Rutgers does best.  We are also getting Rutgers off a sub par performance here over the weekend as they barely clipped Nebraska by 3 points.  They led by 14 in the 2nd half of that game and nearly blew it.  They should be focused here.  Purdue is off a huge, must win home game beating Wisconsin 70-51 in a game where the Badgers looked flat and the Boilers outrebounded them 42 to 16.  That won’t happen here as Rutgers is one of the top rebounding teams in the Big 10.  The Knights also have some extra motivation here as they’ve NEVER beaten Purdue since joining the league back in 2015.  They are 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 home games and Purdue is just 1-6-1 ATS their last 8 as an underdog.  Rutgers is the better team this year and they get the home win and cover tonight.