ASA – American Sports Analysts Handicapper

ASA NHL TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 5.5 Goals – Florida Panthers vs Columbus Blue Jackets, Monday at 7 PM ET – Columbus ranks among the worst in the league for goals allowed this season and the Blue Jackets have been trending the wrong direction since Zach Werenski got hurt.  The defensive pairing of Seth Jones and Werenski is what made Columbus a tough team in the past but they really did not have the same level of performance this season and now, worse yet, 50% of that pairing is out for the season.  Since the game in which Werenski got hurt - the final game played through in pain, the Blue Jackets have allowed an average of 4.6 goals per game and lost all 5 games.  Elvis Merzlikins has been announced as the goalie for tonight and he is 2-7-1 with a 3.10 GAA in road games this season.  He will face a Panthers team that is off a huge win at Tampa Bay.  Beating the Lightning is the type of big victory that can leave a team flat defensively in its next game.  So Columbus could surprise the Panthers early in this one and Sergei Bobrovsky, former Jackets goalie, has shown some inconsistencies when facing his prior team.  Bobrovsky gets the call for Florida tonight against Columbus and he has given up at least 3 goals in 3 straight starts.  The Panthers have won 4 straight home games and scored an average of 3.5 goals per game in those games.  Leading scorer Aleksander Barkov is getting going again after missing some time with an injury and now has 2 goals and an assist in his last 4 games.  He has 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 3 match-ups with Columbus as he has been trouble for them to contain and this is the type of match-up where not having Werenski really hurts the Blue Jackets.  Both teams score well in what should be a very entertaining high-scoring match-up.  Take the OVER here.

#959/960 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7.5 Runs – Kansas City vs Tampa Bay, Monday at 8:10 PM ET – Josh Fleming gets the start for the Rays and he was born in Missouri.  This road trip to Kansas City is a special one for him and he will have a lot of supporters in the stands for this one.  The Tampa Bay southpaw, now in his 2nd season in the majors, is 5-1 with a 2.65 ERA in 8 career appearances, 6 of which were starts.  He faces a Royals team that has decent overall season numbers at the plate but that is because those stats are skewed by their first two games this season when they scored 25 runs.  Since then, KC has averaged scoring only 3 runs per game its past 12 games.  The Royals, not including extra innings, have been held to 3 or less runs in 10 of those 12 games!  Unsurprisingly, given those numbers, Kansas City is on an under run that has seen the under cash in 9 of 11 games!  The Rays, on the other hand, have been trending over the total but this is atypical of Tampa Bay baseball and there should be a regression to the mean.  The way the Royals Danny Duffy is throwing, that regression should include this game staying under the total.  Duffy is 2-0 with an 0.75 ERA and has fanned 11 in 12 innings this season.  Though the Rays have trended over this season, yesterday's game did stay under the total and was the 7th time in 9 games in which Tampa Bay was held to 4 or less runs.  Per our computer math model, this game lands around 5 to 6 runs and even if it reaches 7 that is still a winning ticket.  We like the odds being in our favor for a well-pitched affair in this one!  Bet the UNDER.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7.5 over Memphis Grizzlies, 9:10 PM ET - We like the Nuggets here as they catch the Grizzlies are coming off a huge upset of the Bucks in Milwaukee a few nights ago. The Grizzlies shot ridiculously well at 55% which is well above their season average and had Valanciunas in the lineup who is out tonight. Memphis could also be without another starter here in Dillon Brooks who is questionable with a thigh injury. Memphis is playing their 4th game in six days which will be a factor playing in the higher altitude of Denver. The Nuggets have been off for a few days and have adjusted to being without Murray with two straight wins. The Nugs have won 10 of their last twelve games. Denver is 19-10 SU at home on the year with the 6th best average home differential of +6PPG. Ten of the Nuggets last fourteen home wins have come by 9 or more points. Memphis has some impressive road numbers this season, but with the current situation and injuries this will be a difficult spot for them to cover. Denver has a top 5 offense when it comes to 3pt%, FG% and points and should have an easy time scoring against a Grizzlies defense that is in the bottom half of the NBA in FG% D, scoring D and 11th in 3pt% defense. Memphis hasn’t covered in Denver in four straight trips here. Lay the points.