ASA – American Sports Analysts Handicapper

#968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New York Yankees -1.5 -125 on Run Line over Texas Rangers, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET – We fell just short with this play Monday but coming right back with it here. Yesterday the Yankees jumped out to a 4-0 lead and held Texas scoreless in 8 of the 9 innings but one 3-run inning was the difference. The Yankees won 4-3 but failed to cover the run line. As we mentioned here yesterday about this series, the good news for Yankees fans is they are welcoming the road-adverse Rangers to the Bronx. We look for New York to respond with not only wins but some big-margin victories in this series. Texas has lost 5 of 6 and the Rangers have been held to 3 or less runs in all 6 of those games! The Yankees got drilled Sunday by an 11-1 final but had scored an average of 5.5 runs per game over the 8-game stretch preceding that. Dane Dunning starts for Rangers here and he has struggled badly on the road this season and now makes his first ever start in the Bronx which is generally not an easy place to pitch for young starters! Dunning has a 6.80 ERA on the road this season and Texas is 1-9 in those 10 starts! Yankees start Jordan Montgomery and the lefty has a 3.25 ERA in his 11 home starts this season and New York has won all but 4 of those starts. The Yankees are 7-4 in his home starts this season. The Yankees won by just 1 run yesterday but note that New York's 84 wins this season have included 57 by more than a 1-run margin. The Rangers 95 losses have included 75 by more than a 1-run margin! Also, the Yankees are 54-30 in non-divisional games and Texas is 22-53 in road games this season. Plenty of reason to expect a home blowout here. Adding to the value here is the fact that we can take a -240 range money line favorite and get it adjusted down to a reasonable -125 price range by utilizing the run line. Take New York Yankees -1.5 on the run line

#951/952 ASA FREE PLAY ON Over 9 Runs – Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - This total opened 9 and is offering a few runs of value on the Over the way we see it.  Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller has a 6.14 ERA on the season and is 0-3 with 7.86 ERA in his 6 career starts versus Cincinnati.  The Reds' Tyler Mahle has a 6.09 ERA in his home starts this season and the over is 9-4 on the year in those games.  Mahle allowed 11 baserunners and 4 earned runs in 5 innings in most recent home start.  The Pirates have scored 5 or more runs in 6 of last 9 games.  The Reds build off yesterday's 9-run outburst as their bats came back to life.  Cincinnati is 8-0 when hosting Pittsburgh this season and the over is 6-2 in those games.  We expect that trend to continue here.  This is an OVER play.