ASA – American Sports Analysts Handicapper

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -6.5 vs. Miami Heat, Game 4 Monday 8:30 PM ET - The Celtics laid an egg in Game 3 against the Heat and will bounce back here on their home court. Boston was flat in the previous game, scoring just 18 points in the 1st quarter after allowing 39. Miami was in control throughout the entire game before the C’s made it interesting late. Tatum had a horrible night for Boston by going 3 of 14 from the field for just 10-points so expect a much better showing in Game 4. Miami could be without their best defender in this game as Jimmy Butler only played 19+ minutes in G3 after reaggravating a lingering knee injury. Not only does that hurt Miami’s defense and primary defender on Tatum or Brown, it takes 21.4PPG and 6RPG away from their offense. Strangely enough, the Heat have only won 2 of the 12 quarters played in this series, yet still hold a 2-1 series advantage. The Law of Averages will start to even out beginning in Game 4 which is now a must-win for Boston. Boston is 24-11 SU when coming off a loss this season with the best average Margin of Victory in the league at +7.6PPG. Including the post season the C’s are 32-16 SU at home and they’ve won those games by +6.8PPG. Miami is 3-3 SU on the road in the playoffs and the three losses have come by an average of 10PPG. If Butler plays or doesn’t we still like Boston big at home.

#957 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia -115 over Atlanta, Monday at 7:20 PM ET - After losing 3 straight games, Philly has some nice momentum heading to Atlanta after beating the Dodgers yesterday. They have not been on the road since May 15th so the Phillies should be well rested. In their most recent road trip (May 12 – 15) they took 3 out of 4 games from the Dodgers in LA. Atlanta is off a loss on Sunday @ Miami. This will be their first home game since May 15th after a long 6 game road trip so a tougher spot for the host here. The Phillies should have a solid offensive showing here vs left hander Davidson who is making just his 2nd appearance of the season. He’s thrown only 7.2 innings this season and allowed 13 baserunners during that stretch. Davidson has had control problems walking a whopping 17 in his 29 career innings in his short MLB career. The Phillies line up has been very successful vs lefties this season averaging over 6 RPG their last 10. On the road for the season they having a team batting average of .288 vs LH’s while putting up 7.7 RPG! The Braves might have problems on offense in this one. They are hitting just .222 overall this season (24th in MLB) and they are getting outscored at home this season. They will face Wheeler who is rounding into form after a rough start to the season. Over his last 4 starts he has allowed just 3 ER’s in 26 innings on only 17 hits. He’s pitching much better right now than his 4.26 ERA and over the last 2 seasons Wheeler has been the Phillies ace with an ERA’s of 2.78 and 2.92. We’re getting the better offense with their ace on the mound here basically at even money. We’ll take Philadelphia on Monday.