ASA – American Sports Analysts Handicapper

ASA 8* PLAY ON Under 129 Points- Tennessee Tech @ Winthrop. Thursday at 7:30 PM ET

Tennessee Tech’s offense has been putrid over the last week or so and we don’t see that changing tonight vs a solid Winthrop defense.  Tech has scored 30, 47, and 39 points their last three games vs UNC Greensboro, App State, and Montana State.  Their average points per possession in those 3 games were 0.43, 0.63, and 0.78 which is extremely poor.  They are shooting just 36% as a team this season and they play very slow with their adjusted tempo ranking 312th nationally.  The Winthrop defense has already held 4 of their 5 opponents this year to 61 points or less.  That includes a very good St Mary’s offense (Winthrop win 61-59) and a very experienced East Tennessee State team that is one of the favorites to win the Southern Conference (61-58 ETSU win).  We project Tech to score 55 points here and if that happens that means Winthrop would have to get to 75 points to push this over.  The Eagles have gotten to 75 only once this season and that was against Mid Atlantic Christian.  Tech has allowed 70 or more only twice in their six games this season.  Neither team gets to the FT line very much with Winthrop ranking 337th in FGA/FTA and Tech even worse at 349th.  Also when the few times these teams get to the FT line they are not adept at making them with Winthrop ranking dead last in college basketball making 43% of their FTs and Tennessee Tech making only 67%.  Almost all of the scoring in this game will have to come from field which will make it tough to reach this number.  We like the UNDER here.

ASA play on: Houston Texans -3.5 over Indianapolis Colts, 8:20PM ET – This is a huge game for both teams as it may decide the AFC South. From a situational standpoint we must take the Texans, at home, on a short week and playing with same season revenge as they lost in Indy a few weeks ago. Not too mention, the Texans are off a HORRIBLE showing against the Ravens last week. But this game will be different as they don’t face a mobile QB like Lamar Jackson who threw for 222 yards, 4 TD’s and rank for another 86. The Colts are off a big win against Jacksonville at home with Jacoby Brissett throwing for just 148 total yards, 1 passing TD and 1 INT. These two teams have played nearly identical schedules yet the Colts net yards per play differential is minus -0.3 while the Texans is even. Houston relies heavily on QB Watson who has 8 TD’s and zero INT’s in his last two home games with 705 passing yards. We like the home team here and will lay the points.

ASA NHL PLAY 9* ON Philadelphia Flyers over Carolina Hurricanes, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

The Flyers beat the Hurricanes earlier this month in Philadelphia.  Even though this meeting is at Carolina, note that prior to Philadelphia's win at home earlier in the month, the road team had won 6 of the last 9 meetings between these teams.  The Flyers are in a fighting mood and will be ready to go here as they are off an ugly 5-2 loss at Florida that was preceded by 3 straight tight one-goal losses.  Per our computer math model, Philadelphia is set to improve to 3-0 the last 3 times they have entered a game off a loss by a margin of 3 or more goals.  The Hurricanes enter this game on a hot streak but they have struggled this season in divisional action with losses in 5 of 7 games and that continues here.  When on a winning streak of 3 or more games, the Hurricanes have lost 15 of 27 to cost their backers 7.7 net units when in that situation that past 2+ seasons.  Bet Philadelphia in early evening NHL action Thursday