ASA – American Sports Analysts Handicappers

#904 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers Run Line -1.5 (+120) over Cincinnati Reds, Thursday at 2:10 PM ET - The Brewers have won 8 of Misiorowski's last 10 starts and all 8 wins have been by a multi-run margin. Misiorowski has been nothing short of phenomenal during this stretch as he has allowed ZERO earned runs in 7 of the starts and in the other three he allowed just 1 earned run in two of them and 2 earned runs in the other! Complete and utter domination for the flame-throwing right-hander and he gives Milwaukee the big edge over Chase Burns and the Reds in this one.  The Cincinnati right-hander is coming off a tougher start at Pittsburgh as he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings.  Overall, Burns has been striking out plenty of guys and is having a solid season but he has been more hittable of late and that helped result in the tougher outing at Pittsburgh.  Burns has now allowed 24 hits in his last 21 and 1/3 innings.  To put that in perspective in terms of this match-up, Misiorowski has allowed nearly the same number of hits (26) in a whopping 66 and 1/3 innings over his last 10 starts.  It is clear to see which strikeout pitcher has been more dominant in terms of not being hittable.  The bullpen ERA difference is big between these clubs also as the Brewers rank 7th in the majors while the Reds rank 25th in the 30-team league.  In terms of laying the run line here, note the following statts.  Only 12 of Milwaukee's 53 wins this season came by a 1 run margin. Similarly, only 10 of the Reds 46 losses this season came by a 1-run margin. All signs point to a home blowout here as Misiorowski continues his dominating form while Burns makes it B2B tough road starts and he gets pounded by the Brewers lineup here. The Brewers are on a 35-15 run including 3 straight wins over the Reds (all by a multi-run margin) and they stay red hot here.  Overall the Reds are just 2-7 last 9 games and that includes going 0-6 against the Brewers!  Lay the 1.5 runs with Milwaukee in early afternoon action Thursday.

FIFA World Cup #225541 ASA PLAY ON Austria Goal Line +1.5 (-120) over Spain, Thursday at 3 ET - We like the value here in going against a Spain side that is dealing with injuries up front.  Yes, Spain has yet to concede a goal in this tournament but they faced Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia and Uruguay.  That is definitely not a "who's who" of potent offensive attacks.  Now they face an Austria side led by manager Ralf Rangnick and they play an aggressive pressing system that does a great job of facilitating scoring opportunities.  Remember too that Spain has a 0-0 draw and a 1-0 win so far in this tournament so getting a goal and a half with an Austria side that possesses a dangerous attack is a solid value here.  This is particularly true with Spain dealing with injuries that are impacting their normally strong attack.  Spain has simply not looked like themselves in this tournament thus far and we anticipate Austria will be very competitive throughout this match and we expect this match to be decided by a 1-goal margin.  Austria has scored 3 goals in 2 of their 3 matches thus far and they will certainly challenge the backline of Spain here.  Spain is without Nico Williams plus Yeremy Pino and Victor Munoz could both be available yet kept on the bench for much of this match as both are still trying to fully recover from injuries.  That helps set this one up to be a tight final score.  We will take Austria on the goal line (+1.5) Thursday.

ASA WNBA play on Atlanta Dream -7 at Washington Mystics, 7:30 pm ET - Atlanta is coming off 3-straight road losses on the West Coast, most recently a bad loss to Seattle by 15-points as an -8.5 point favorite. Prior to that they lost two tough games to Golden State which is a tough venue to win at against the scrappy Valkyries. Before this current stretch of road losses the Dream had won 6 of eight away from home. Washington is coming off a marathon game against Portland which resulted in 4 OT’s and a 124-123 win over the Fire. They had lost two straight before that game but are in a tough spot here with two starters potentially out with Georgia Amoore and Sonia Citron both questionable. Atlanta is 4-2 ATS this season when coming off a loss and they’ve won those games by an average of +12.7PPG. Washington is 4-4 ATS off a loss but they have a negative average point differential of -10.1PPG in those contests. The difference in Net rating between these two teams in drastic with Atlanta +5.5, the Mystics are minus -4.5. Atlanta makes a living off second chance points (1st), fast break points (2nd) and points in the paint (1st). We like the Dream to end this 3-game losing skid and win this game by double-digits.