ASA – American Sports Analysts Handicapper

ASA 10* CBB PLAY ON Appalachian State +2 over Georgia State, Thursday at 7:00 PM ET

Why are the Georgia State Panthers with an 18-8 overall record only favored by 2 points @ Appalachian State who enters this game with a 9-16 record?  Most, who don’t follow the Sun Belt as closely as we do, will look at this game and immediately bet the small road favorite.  That would be a mistake in our opinion.  App State might be just 4-8 in league play but they are tough at home and trending upward.  They started the conference losing 6 straight but have since gone 4-2 over their last 6 games.  Even their 2 losses during this stretch have seen them play solid basketball.  They lost @ Texas State (highest rated team in the Sun Belt – currently in 1st place) but just 3 points.  It was a game that Texas State shot 55% as a team but still had to hold off App State who missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer which would have sent the game to OT.  They followed up that disappointing loss with a flat performance just 2 days later in a 10-point loss @ UT Arlington.  That was really the Mountaineers only poor outing over their last 6 games and the situation warranted a potential flat outing for them.  They are 8-2 overall at home this year and have won 3 straight here during this stretch.  They average 86 PPG at home and shoot nearly 50%.  Georgia State is trending the other way in our opinion.  They started the Sun Belt season with a perfect 5-0 mark but have since gone just 4-4.  All 4 of those wins have come at home and the Panthers have lost 3 straight road games.  Two of those road losses came vs teams ranked lower than App State (Louisiana & and Troy) and the other came @ UL Monroe who is 6-6 in conference play.  Their most recent game came last Friday at home vs South Alabama who is the 3rd lowest rated team in the Sun Belt.  Georgia State won the game but had to battle back from a 50-32 deficit to do so and remember this was at home vs a team that has lost 8 of their last 11 games.  GSU relies very heavily on the 3-point shot which might be part of the reason they struggle away from home.  They are a poor rebounding team (last in the Sun Belt at -6 per game) that shoots only 63% from the line (also last in the league) so in a close game late they are not always reliable.  Despite their impressive record, GSU’s point differential is almost dead even in conference play as they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 77-74.  App State, despite their 4-8 record, has a plus point differential outscoring teams in league play 81-79.  These two teams are much closer than their records might indicate and with ASU getting points at home in the midst of playing their best basketball of the season, we like them quite a bit in this spot.

ASA PLAY ON Free Pick OVER: Buffalo at Tampa Bay, Thursday @ 7:35 PM ET

The Sabres enter this game having lost 3 straight. That is a situation that has seen Buffalo go over all 6 times this season. A perfect 6-0 O/U record. Big total of 6.5 is what the odds makers set on this game. While that may indeed seem big, the fact is that the last 21 times that Buffalo has played a road game with a total set at 6 or more, only 6 of the 21 (29%) have resulted in an under. The Lighting are proven to be the best team in the NHL this season and they've put their high-scoring ways on full display when facing lesser competition. That is why the over is a superb 16-9-1 this season in Bolts games versus opponents with a losing record. Tampa Bay has won 7 straight games and scored an average of 5 goals per game! The Sabres enter this game having allowed 4.7 goals per game in their last 3 games. Not only is the over 4-2 in the last 6 meetings between these clubs, those games have averaged a total of 9 goals per game! Free Pick: OVER at Tampa in early evening action Thursday.

ASA 9* PLAY ON Minnesota over New York Rangers, Thursday at 7:05 PM ET

The Wild have been struggling and actually needed a change of venue. When you have lost 4 straight on home ice, as a team, you look forward to getting on the road and hitting the "reset button" and that is precisely what Minnesota. The Wild are still very much alive in the playoff race in the Western Conference and, on Thursday, they'll take advantage of facing one of the weakest teams in the league. Prior to the 4-0 home loss to Anaheim, Minnesota had been 7-2 this season when they entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games where the most recent defeat came by a multiple goal margin. Now after losing in that situation to the Ducks, the Wild will improve on that 7-3 mark on the season by getting back on track at New York, The Rangers, since their very first game after the All Star break, have gone 0-5 when off a win. After knocking off the Hurricanes at Carolina on Tuesday, look for the Rangers to now drop their 6th straight when in this situation. Bet MINNESOTA tonight

ASA play on: #507 Boston Celtics +5.5 over Milwaukee Bucks, 8PM ET – It’s do-or-die time for the Celtics who sit 4th in the East but are tied with Philly. Clearly the top 4 spots in the conference get home court in the first round which makes this final stretch of the regular season critical. Boston has had their issues on the road against good teams, but they do have a positive road differential of +2.8PPG which is the 5th best number in the NBA. The C’s come into this game having won 12 of their last fifteen games and have only been a road dog of 5 or more points just two times this year. We are not over-looking Milwaukee’s 14-2 SU run or their home point differential, but the situation clearly favors the dog here. Boston has the best coach in the game in our opinion and with the added rest and lack of distractions from the All-Star game he’ll have the perfect game plan for this game tonight. Boston has covered 9 of the last twelve meetings with the Bucks and they’ll keep this close throughout and I’m not surprised if they win outright.