ASA – American Sports Analysts Handicapper

ASA play on: OVER 40.5 Detroit Lions @ Houston Texans, Saturday 8PM ET – These two teams have been holding a joint practice this week and both are coming off different showings from Week #1. While the Texans lost in Green Bay in the preseason opener, they looked good doing so. The Texans racked up 29 first downs, 138 rushing yards and 274 passing yards which was good for 26 points. Houston got their starters roughly 90 reps against the Lions this week so their play will be limited, if at all, for tonight’s game but that’s not a bad thing for our Over wager. Texans QB Webb III played well in the opener by going 25 of 40 for 286 yards. He’ll see extended minutes again here as the Texans lack QB depth. Plus, he’ll face a Lions defense that was torched by the Patriots in their exhibition opener. You would think the Patriots former defensive coordinator, Lions current head coach Matt Patricia, would have a good game-plan against his former team? Not so much! The Pats put up an obscene 459 total yards of offense and 31-points against Detroit. Concerning defensive “genius” Patricia. The Lions ranked 27th in the NFL in defensive efficiency last year while the Patriots jumped from 31st in 2017 to 16th last year in his first season removed from defensive coordinator. We do expect to see the Lions offensive starters including QB Matt Stafford here for a few series here against the Texans second unit. After an abysmal offensive showing in Week 1 (less than 100 total yards) we expect the Lions to be focused on a better output here. After staying Under the total in Week 1 last year the Lions went Over in three straight with 47, 63 and 52 total points scored. The bet here is OVER!

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER: Seattle Mariners at Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 3:05 PM ET

Yesterday's game between these teams was 6-2 through 3 innings but miraculously did not go over the total of 10.5 as the game ended up a 7-3 Blue Jays win. Look for Saturday's game to feature more scoring throughout the game. The Mariners are going with a bullpen game here as Reggie McClain will be the starter. The concept of "bullpen games" was first, or at least mostly, employed by Tampa Bay. It made sense too because it worked. However, that is because the Rays are known for having a quality bullpen. Again this season the Rays are one of the best bullpens in MLB. As for the Mariners, they are one of the worst pens in the majors. That said, it doesn't work so well for them and this is particularly true when Seattle is up against a red hot offense. The Blue Jays have a .553 slugging percentage this month. That ranks them 3rd in the majors behind only the Yankees and Astros! As you can, Toronto is keeping pretty good company of late. The Mariners lineup has been a little quieter of late but this still a Seattle team whose .455 slugging percentage on the road this season ranks them 4th in the AL. The Mariners will take advantage of an inconsistent Trent Thornton. The Toronto right-hander is off a very strong start against the Yankees but he has a knack for following up quality starts with bad ones.. In fact, the last 3 times Thornton was off a start in which he has allowed 2 or less earned runs, he has been rocked all 3 times allowing a total of 16 earned runs in 3 starts which lasted a combined 8 and 1 / 3 innings.. Given these numbers and this distinct pattern with Thornton as well as the fact that McClain was pitching in the single A level of the minors this season, it comes as no surprise that our computer math model is predicting a slug-fest at Rogers Centre Saturday afternoon. Bet the OVER in the Blue Jays game in afternoon action Saturday