ASA – American Sports Analysts Handicapper

ASA TOP PLAY 10* on Calgary Flames Money Line (+) over Dallas Stars, Tuesday at 5:30 PM ET

The Stars scored a total of only 4 goals in regulation time of their 3 games in the round robin.  This is a Dallas team that has just one win in its last nine games and that win came in the shootout Sunday against St Louis.  The Stars only sent it to the shootout courtesy of a very late goal with just a minute left in the game.  The last win in regulation time for Dallas came all the way back on February 25th.  Calgary comes into this game surging and already in playoff mode as, while the Stars were playing round robin games, the Flames were playing in a best of five qualifying round series against Winnipeg.  Not only did Calgary close out the Jets in 4 games, they scored an average of 4 goals per game!  Yes, the Flames have averaged 4 goals per game since action resumed while the Stars have totaled only 4 goals since action resumed.  Big difference and, per our computer math model, the Flames skill in the offensive zone proves to be the difference maker as they take Game One of this series.  ASA PLAY 10* Calgary Flames on the money line in early evening action Tuesday.

ASA FREE PLAY on Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (-) over Columbus Blue Jackets, Tuesday at 3:00 PM ET

This line is a little too pricey to make our official card of releases but we'll use it here as we do feel it still offers some value for those willing to lay a money line price.  The situation is definitely strong with Columbus off their huge upset win of the Maple Leafs in Game 5 of their qualifying round series on Sunday.  Now the Blue Jackets have set up a rematch with the same team they swept out of the post-season in round one last year.  Keep in mind, that followed a massive regular season for the Lightning as they were the #1 seed and had piled up huge points in the regular season.  Yes the Bolts wish Stamkos and Hedman were healthy but this is still a very strong hockey club nonetheless.  Revenge is big here for Tampa Bay and they catch the Blue Jackets off a huge effort Sunday to upset the Maple Leafs.  Set ups don't get much better than this and consider TB in this spot early Tuesday.  ASA FREE PLAY: Bet Tampa Bay on the money line Tuesday.

ASA top play 10* on UNDER 233.5 Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs, 2PM ET We like the Under in this day game between these two Texas rivals. Both have incentive to play here with the Rockets jockeying for seeding position and the Spurs fighting for a chance to get into the post-season for the 23rd straight year. In the Bubble games the Rockets defense has been much better than the regular season version as they have allowed just 1.076 points per possession in their five Bubble games compared to 1.100PPP they give up on the season. On the year the Rockets have been average in effective field goal percentage defense but in their last three games they are allowing just 49% EFG% shooting which is second best in the NBA over that 3-game span. The Rockets have given up 110, 97 and 112 points in their last three games. We do not see the Rockets putting up huge offensive numbers here without James Harden or Daniel House Jr. in the lineup. San Antonio is fighting for the 8th or 9th seed in the West and are essentially in a must win situation. That is a lot of pressure for a young team without their best offensive player LaMarcus Aldridge who did not come to the Bubble. San Antonio has some inflated scoring and defensive numbers in the Bubble with a pair of exceedingly high scoring games against Denver and Philly which has skewed this number higher than it should be. These two teams met twice in December and produced 216 and 268 total points. The 268-point game was an OT thriller and the two teams produced 38-points so in reality that game would have finished with less total points than today’s Total set by Vegas. The Under has cashed in 7 of the last nine meetings and we predict another Under here.

ASA TOP PLAY 10* ON OVER the Total - Washington Nationals @ New York Mets, Tuesday at 7:10 PM ET

The Nationals Max Scherzer left his last start, also against the Mets, after just 1 inning due to tightness in a hamstring. Certainly Scherzer is a great pitcher but that is when he is healthy. He is not 100% and the hamstring is on his mind. This is a road start for him against a division rival that is familiar with him. The Mets lost yesterday's game to Washington by a final score of 16-4 and New York's last 7 home games have totaled an average of 11 runs per game. In this one we get an O/U of only 8.5 runs to work with as Scherzer's long-term reputation carries weight of course and keeps this total lower than it should be per our computer math model. Rick Porcello gets the start for the Mets here and is off of a strong start against the Nationals but he was fortunate as he gave up a lot of hard contact. Of course hard contact and Porcello go hand in hand! Prior to his start against Washington, Porcello was 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA in his first two starts this season. He entered this season off a 14-12 year last season but that was thanks to run support as Porcello had a 5.52 ERA on the campaign! The Nationals exploded for 16 runs on 17 hits in yesterday's big win and will be very confident at the plate this evening as a result of yesterday's success plus the fact they just faced Porcello last week. Bet the OVER in the New York Mets game in early evening action Tuesday.