ASA – American Sports Analysts Handicapper

ASA PLAY ON 9* OVER: Carolina Hurricanes @ Winnipeg Jets, Sunday at 7:05 PM ET

The Hurricanes are rolling with 4 straight wins but they run into an angry Jets team here. While the Canes were in action last night the Jets have been off since Thursday. That result on Thursday was a 3-0 loss at Nashville. Winnipeg has had to wait 2 full off days to get a chance to get the bad taste out of their mouth and they will be fired up and should score plenty of goals in what will be just their 2nd home game of the season. The key to the value with the over here is that the Hurricanes have averaged scoring 5.3 goals per game their last 4 games. So, while the Jets are poised for a big breakout game in the offensive zone, don't be surprised if Carolina answers Winnipeg goal for goal in this one! The over is 3-0 in the Hurricanes last 3 games. Only 4 of 12 (33%) of Carolina's road games with a total set at 6 or more goals have resulted in an under. The Jets are 20-11-1 to the over when playing with two days of rest between games. Bet the OVER in Winnipeg in early evening action Sunday.

ASA just continues to CASH IN with their 10* Top Plays in the NFL!  They are 119-84 long term / 49-31 since the start of last season / and 5-1 Run this year!  Join them on Sunday for their 10* AFC UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH and their 10* SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH!

ASA NFL PLAY ON Washington +1 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

This game opened with Washington -2.5 and has been bet down all week.  The majority of the bets are sitting on Carolina and we feel this move is a major overreaction to what happened on Monday night.  Washington looked terrible in front of the entire world on Monday Night football losing 43-19 @ New Orleans.  The Redskin defense that had been playing very well was torched by Drew Brees as he threw only 3 incompletions (26 for 29) and set the all time NFL passing yards record on Monday.  It was the first time Washington has been outgained in a game this season.  The Skin defense has now faced Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees in their last 3 games.  Despite their struggles vs Brees, they fared quite well vs Rodgers (265 yards) and Luck (179 yards) and we expect them to perform well vs the inaccurate Cam Newton (18th among starters in completion percentage and 27th in yards passing on the season).  The Redskins are 1-1 on the season at home beating Green Bay by 14 and losing to Indy but outgaining them by 53 years.  Carolina has played just one road game this season losing by 7 @ Atlanta which is the Falcons only win this season.  Last week at home the Panthers struggled to beat the NY Giants 33-31 kicking the game winning FG as time expired.  The Panthers were outgained by over 80 yards in that game and we’ve seen how poorly the Giants have played this year including getting creamed at home on Thursday night vs the Eagles.  For the season Carolina is 3-1 but they are averaging just 5.8 YPP and allowing 6.7 YPP.   Now we’re getting Washington off an embarrassing loss at home in a near pick-em game vs an overrated Carolina team.  We feel this line should be -3 or higher for Washington so we’ll take the value with the Redskins.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Indianapolis +2 over NY Jets, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET

Big mismatch at the QB position here with Luck vs Darnold.  The much better and more experienced QB is getting points which is always worth a look.  People are overreacting to the Jets crushing the Broncos last week.  It wasn’t a huge surprise as Denver has been a terrible road team under head coach Vance Joseph now losing 11 of their last 12 games away from home.  Darnold had to do very little in that game (completed just 10 passes) as the Jets ran for a ridiculous 323 yards.  It’s not as if the Jets were some terrific running team as they were averaging just 88 YPG on the ground coming into last week’s game.  Now they face an Indy defense that is allowing only 4 YPC which is 10th best in the NFL.  NY won’t run wild this week and Darnold will have more pressure to make plays on Sunday.  Let’s also not forget that the Jets had lost 3 straight games (scoring just 41 combined points in those 3 games) heading into their impressive win vs Denver.  The Colts have had 10 days to rest up and prepare for this game after losing @ New England on Thursday night.  Indy desperately needs a win here as they come in off three straight losses.  Two were down to the wire, tight games @ Philadelphia (lost 20-16) and vs Houston (lost 37-34 in OT).  The Colts have outgained 3 of their 5 opponents and their defense is actually quite solid.  They are very good at getting to the QB (3rd in sacks per game and 6th in sack percentage) so we wouldn’t be at all surprised if Darnold is rushed in to a few mistakes in this game.  Andrew Luck is a great 22-4 SU and 21-5 ATS the game following a SU & ATS loss.  He is rolling right now as well throwing for over 800 yards and 7 TD’s his last 2 games.  We like the Colts to win this game outright on Sunday.

ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver +7 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET

The Rams finally had to leave the state of California last week and they almost got clipped for the first time this year.  They came from behind in the 4th quarter to beat Seattle 33-31.  IT was just their 2nd road game this season with their first being @ Oakland to open the season.  Now LA is on the road for the 2nd straight week and in altitude.  They should be catching the Broncos in an ornery mood after playing a terrible game on the road last week @ NY Jets.  The Denver defense gave up an uncharacteristic 323 yards on the GROUND to the Jets, the most by a Bronco defense since 2010.  They obviously were not physically or mentally ready for that game and we expect a huge bounce back on Sunday.  While they have struggled on the road winning just 1 of their last 12 games, Denver is a different animal at home.  They are 2-1 here this year with their only loss coming 27-23 to 5-0 Kansas City, a game that Denver led 23-13 midway through the 4th quarter.  They were +3 to +3.5 in that game vs an undefeated KC team and now they are getting a full TD here vs a comparable team.  You almost never see Denver as that type of dog at home as this is just the 4th time since 1980 they’ve been a home dog of +7 or more.  The Rams looked unbeatable early in the season vs Oakland and Arizona but those wins now don’t look quite as impressive as those teams have a combined record of just 2-8.  After their first two games vs weak competition, their defense has not looked very good giving up 23, 31, and 31 points their last 3.  Their run defense has really struggled allowing 5 YPC which is 29th in the NFL.  That’s a problem here vs a Denver rushing attack that ranks #1 in the NFL averaging 5.6 YPC.  This sets up as a dangerous game for the Rams and we’ll grab the generous points with the home team here. 

ASA 10* PLAY ON New England -3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET

We view this as a game the Pats will want to make a statement.  Many have now said that KC is the team to beat in the AFC which is the title that has been held by the Pats for multiple years.  Do you think Belichick & Brady will want to squash that sentiment in this game?  Add to that this is a revenge game from the season opener last year and you can pretty much guarantee they want to make a statement here.  New England has had extra time to get ready for this huge home match up after beating the Colts 38-24 on Thursday night.  While we believe the Chiefs are a very solid team, we also feel they have been very fortunate to date.  They’ve been outgained in 4 of their 5 games (-300 yards on the season) and they have the worst defense in the NFL allowing 462 YPG (ranking 31st in pass defense & 24th in rush defense).  To be 5-0 in that situation means they’ve absolutely gotten some fortunate breaks.  Last week they beat a very good Jacksonville team 30-14 but were handed the win by the Jags who turned the ball over 5 times including throwing 2 picks in the endzone, another at the 1-yard line, and also throwing a pick 6.  The Jags made 5 official trips inside KC’s 20 yard line and came away with a grand total of 7 points on those possessions.  QB Patrick Mahomes came back to earth throwing 2 picks and 0 TD’s.  We’re positive Belichick will have a very solid defensive gameplan for Mahomes in this one.  The Patriots offense is peaking right now scoring 38 points in each of their last 2 games, they have WR Julian Edelman back in the line up, and Tom Brady should have a field day vs the 31st rank pass defense.  We simply don’t see the Patriots in this price range at home very often as they’ve been a favorite of less than 4 points only 4 times since 2010 (3-1 ATS).  They are also a fantastic 18-3 ATS at home as a favorite of less than a TD since December of 2010.  KC is playing their 4th road game already this season and this is a very dangerous spot for them.  The Pats are 93-15 SU at home since December of 2006 and with this number sitting as low as it is, the value is definitely with the Patriots.  Lay the small number with New England.