Some players want tons of action every day. Others would rather hit at a higher rate with more selective plays. So I put together a couple of lists. The first one shows who has made the most money for clients over the course of several seasons. This shows who has been the most consistent at beating the Vegas point spreads and totals with their NFL handicapping over a longer time period. I tend to look at the longer term results when finding tipsters to recommend my visitors follow.
One more suggestion is to check out our free NFL picks each week. This will give you an idea of the thought process some of the betting services have. Plus you can track how they are doing and how their opinions line up with your own bets.
Top NFL Handicapping Services to Follow
Best Professional Vegas NFL Betting Experts in 2023
| Rank | Handicapper | Profit | ROI | Win PCT | W-L | Sc Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Nover | $645 | +34.9% | 73.3% | 11-4 | 12.47 |
| 2 | Dana Lane | $560 | +31.6% | 71.4% | 10-4 | 10.53 |
| 3 | Dave Price | $558 | +29.6% | 71.4% | 10-4 | 10.53 |
| 4 | Timothy Black | $546 | +31.4% | 68.8% | 11-5 | 9.22 |
| 5 | Info Plays | $472 | +39.1% | 72.7% | 8-3 | 9.72 |
| 6 | Matt Fargo | $464 | +32.5% | 69.2% | 9-4 | 7.74 |
| 7 | Kenny Walker | $380 | +37.9% | 75.0% | 6-2 | 8.52 |
| 8 | Sean Murphy | $370 | +28.2% | 70.0% | 7-3 | 6.70 |
| 9 | John Ryan | $355 | +21.3% | 64.3% | 9-5 | 3.93 |
| 10 | Jack Jones | $330 | +18.4% | 62.5% | 10-6 | 3.06 |
Our guys take the time to go deep into the matchups and can help you find value on the board each week. We know that no matter who you choose from the list above you are going to give yourself a better chance at beating the books and making some profit.
The reason finding a good pro football betting service is difficult is the small sample size. There are only 32 teams playing 18 weeks of football. You just don't get as many opportunities to place wagers as you do during a long baseball or basketball season. This makes it more difficult to seperate the touts that are on a hot streak from the ones who know what they are doing. That is why I recommend looking at the long term records, then making sure that the bettor isn't missing something in the current season.
If you are just looking for a best bet or big game then check out the NFL picks page for the packages available this week. Sometimes a mediocre pro bettor can find a big edge and release a Game of the Year type play that will hit at a high percentage.
Whatever strategy you decide to go with this year I hope you find someone to follow that will help you cash more tickets. Becuase there really is nothing like watching the NFL all day on Sunday and then checking your balance after the night game and seeing you've won money!
How NFL Football Bettors Can Find Edges
The complexity of the game of football, combined with its unpredictable nature, makes the NFL a challenging yet rewarding venture for handicappers. NFL handicappers, experts in predicting game outcomes and setting betting lines, utilize a combination of data-driven analysis and intuition. Here’s a deep dive into the key techniques and strategies they employ.
1. In-depth Statistical Analysis
Statistics form the backbone of any handicapping strategy. In the NFL, there’s a plethora of data available, from player-specific stats to team-wide metrics. Some of the most scrutinized include:
- Quarterback Ratings (QBR): Evaluates the performance of a quarterback, considering factors like touchdowns, interceptions, and completion percentage.
- Yards Per Attempt (YPA): Measures the efficiency of both passing and rushing plays.
- Turnover Differential: Indicates a team’s ability to protect the ball and force turnovers.
Advanced metrics, such as Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), further refine the analysis, offering insights into a team’s efficiency relative to the league average.
2. Player Matchups
Just as in baseball, individual matchups in football can be game-changers. How does a star wide receiver fare against a top-tier cornerback? Can an offensive line protect its quarterback from a dominant defensive front? Recognizing these matchups helps handicappers gauge potential game flow and outcomes.
3. Team Dynamics and Morale
The chemistry and morale of a team can significantly influence its performance. A cohesive unit often outperforms a disjointed one, even if the latter has superior individual talent. Handicappers keep a pulse on team dynamics, factoring in recent controversies, coaching changes, or locker room disputes.
4. Injury Reports
Injuries are an unfortunate reality in the NFL, and their impact on games can’t be overstated. Handicappers meticulously review weekly injury reports, noting which players are out, questionable, or playing through pain. The absence of a key player can drastically alter a team’s strategy and effectiveness. That’s why we provide updated NFL injury reports for our visitors.
5. Home Field Advantage
While its impact can vary, playing at home generally offers teams a slight edge, thanks to familiar surroundings and vocal fan support. Handicappers consider this, especially in high-stakes games or matchups with notorious home crowds. We’ve ran the numbers and have the home field advantage calculated for every team in the league.
6. Weather Conditions
Outdoor NFL games are subject to the whims of Mother Nature. Rain can make the ball slippery, affecting passing and ball-handling. Snow and cold can slow down the game, while wind can alter the trajectory of kicks and throws. Handicappers factor in weather forecasts, especially for games where conditions could be extreme.
7. Historical Performance and Trends
Past matchups, especially recent ones, can provide valuable insights. How has a team performed against divisional rivals? Are there patterns in a team’s performance after a bye week? While every game is unique, understanding historical trends can offer a glimpse into potential outcomes.
8. Public Betting Trends and Line Movements
The betting public’s perception can influence betting lines. If a significant majority is backing one team, bookmakers might adjust the lines to balance the action. Handicappers monitor these shifts, looking for discrepancies or overreactions that might offer value.
9. Coaching Strategies
Coaches play a pivotal role in the NFL, and their game plans can significantly influence outcomes. Handicappers study coaching tendencies, such as aggressiveness on fourth down, play-calling balance, or defensive schemes. Understanding a coach’s mindset and strategy can offer insights into potential game flow.
10. Intangibles and Motivation
There are factors in football that, while hard to quantify, can sway a game. This could be a team seeking revenge for a previous loss, a player motivated against a former team, or a squad rallying around an injured teammate. These intangibles, while elusive, are considered by seasoned handicappers.
11. Adapting to New Information
The NFL is dynamic, with strategies, player roles, and team dynamics evolving weekly. Successful handicappers stay updated, adapting to new information, roster changes, or emerging player talents. They’re always on the lookout for the next edge or overlooked detail.
In conclusion, NFL handicapping is a multifaceted endeavor, blending rigorous data analysis with a keen understanding of the game’s nuances. The best handicappers are those who can process vast amounts of information, discern patterns, and make informed predictions. While the unpredictable nature of football ensures no strategy is foolproof, employing these techniques significantly enhances the odds of making accurate assessments in the thrilling world of NFL betting.