Below you'll find who has been the best professional MLB bettors going past the last several seasons. You'll find guys with years of predictions, compiling thousands of games. Those are the guys who you can trust to have an advantage over the books as they are famous for it.
Rankings of Top Vegas Baseball Handicapping Services
Best MLB Betting Tipsters in 2023
| Rank | Handicapper | Profit | ROI | Win PCT | W-L | Sc Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Williams | $3,998 | +7.4% | 50.4% | 234-230 | 11.26 |
| 2 | Bobby Conn | $3,892 | +8.3% | 53.7% | 227-196 | 14.65 |
| 3 | Dave Price | $2,649 | +3.5% | 49.9% | 334-335 | 10.17 |
| 4 | Teddy Davis | $2,639 | +11.3% | 52.2% | 116-106 | 14.63 |
| 5 | Kevin Young | $2,310 | +3.9% | 51.3% | 254-241 | 1.12 |
| 6 | Jack Jones | $2,275 | +3.4% | 54.0% | 303-258 | 2.22 |
| 7 | Sal Michaels | $1,972 | +8.2% | 54.2% | 103-87 | 2.89 |
| 8 | Frank Sawyer | $1,859 | +7.3% | 60.5% | 115-75 | 5.16 |
| 9 | Dustin Hawkins | $1,596 | +4.4% | 50.8% | 156-151 | 3.17 |
| 10 | Mark Wilson | $1,534 | +3.0% | 50.3% | 222-219 | 2.85 |
Our guys know how to profit from these statistics, but also situations like rookie pitchers, guys coming back from the DL, bullpen usage, which underdogs to bet and biased umpires. When you throw all of that in with the dime lines you can find with baseball odds you see how it can be easy to make money with this sport.
When the oddsmakers come up with their line they are mainly looking at the quality of the opposing starters, the quality of the teams, and the home field advantage. When you go deeper, like we do, you’ll find yourself edges to exploit.
There will be over 2,400 games played this MLB season and plenty more come playoff time.
How the Best Baseball Cappers & Bettors Find Their Edges
Our MLB handicappers are experts who employ a lot of different techniques and strategies to predict the outcome of the games. Let’s take a dive into how they make informed decisions for themselves and the clients who follow their picks.
1. Statistical Analysis
At the heart of MLB handicapping is a deep reliance on statistics. Baseball is a numbers game, and there’s a statistic for nearly every aspect of a player’s performance. Some of the most commonly analyzed stats include:
- Batting Average (BA): This measures a player’s hitting performance.
- Earned Run Average (ERA): This gauges a pitcher’s effectiveness.
- Wins Above Replacement (WAR): A comprehensive stat that estimates a player’s overall contribution to the team.
Handicappers often dive deeper, looking at advanced metrics like Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), and more. These advanced stats can provide insights that traditional stats might overlook.
2. Player Matchups
Understanding individual matchups is crucial. How does a batter perform against left-handed pitchers? How effective is a pitcher when facing the top of the batting order? Handicappers dissect these matchups to identify potential advantages or vulnerabilities. For instance, if a star batter has historically struggled against a particular pitcher, this could influence the predicted outcome of a game. Plus, you have to understand the injury situation for every team so you know who is likely to play and who will sit.
3. Team Dynamics
Baseball is a team sport, and understanding team dynamics is essential. This includes analyzing team morale, chemistry, and recent performance trends. A team on a winning streak might have a psychological edge, while internal conflicts or injuries could hamper performance.
4. Ballpark Factors
Every baseball stadium is unique, and these differences can influence game outcomes. Some parks are known for being “hitter-friendly,” with short outfield distances favoring home runs. Others might be vast, giving an advantage to teams with speedy outfielders. Handicappers consider these factors, especially when teams are playing in unfamiliar territory. Plus there is the home-field advantage to consider.
5. Weather Conditions
Weather plays a significant role in baseball. Wind direction and speed can influence the trajectory of a ball, potentially turning a routine fly ball into a home run or vice versa. Temperature can affect how far a ball travels or how a pitcher grips the ball. Recognizing the impact of weather conditions is a staple in the handicapper’s toolkit.
6. Recent Form and Fatigue
The MLB season is grueling, with teams playing almost every day. This can lead to fatigue, which can impact performance. Handicappers monitor players’ recent form, looking for signs of fatigue or injury. A team at the tail end of a long road trip might not perform at its peak, for instance.
7. Historical Trends
While past performance is not always indicative of future results, historical trends can provide valuable insights. This could be in the form of head-to-head records between teams, performance in specific months, or even performance following a day off.
8. Intangibles
Sometimes, factors that aren’t easily quantifiable play a role. This could be a team rallying around a cause, the emotional boost from a returning player, or the motivation of playing against a former team. These intangibles can sway a game’s outcome, and seasoned handicappers know to account for them.
9. Public Perception and Line Movements
Understanding public betting trends can be valuable. If the majority of the public is betting on one team, the betting lines might shift, creating potential value elsewhere. Handicappers often look for these discrepancies to find betting value.
10. Continuous Learning and Adaptation
The world of baseball is ever-evolving, with new strategies, player developments, and statistical tools emerging regularly. Successful MLB handicappers are always learning, adapting to new information, and refining their techniques.
In conclusion, MLB handicapping is a complex art that blends data analysis with intuition. The best handicappers are those who can synthesize vast amounts of information, from player stats to weather conditions, and make informed predictions. While no strategy guarantees success, understanding and employing these techniques increases the odds of making accurate forecasts in the unpredictable world of baseball betting.