Jimmy Boyd in 
February in college basketball is all about seeding for the NCAA Tournament. Each team’s performance in the last 10 games of the season plays an important role in how they fare come Selection Sunday. So, what a team does during this time is all about building their tournament resume.
What also occurs in this month is how the public perceives a team. All a casual bettor has to do is look at the loss column coming into the second month of the calendar year and see a zero. It grabs their attention immediately.
However, don’t think the guys setting the college basketball odds haven’t factored this in. They know the gambling public loves to play the great teams. When the home team is undefeated on their home court the money can’t come out of their pocket fast enough.
We see the same phenomenon when we take a peek at a February team that has a big zero in the win column on the road. The casual bettor loves going against these poor road teams.
As is often the case with betting, perception, and reality don’t necessarily line up.
The Pitfall of Backing Large Favorites
Recent data over the past decade reveals a compelling trend: college basketball teams favored by more than 12 points in February games have a combined record of 125-151 against the spread (ATS), covering only 45.3% of the time. This suggests that these heavily favored teams often underperform relative to expectations during this critical month.
Understanding the Trend
Several factors might contribute to this pattern:
Public Perception: Teams with strong records or high rankings often attract significant public betting interest, leading to inflated lines.
Motivation Disparity: Underdog teams may exhibit heightened motivation, especially when facing top-tier opponents, leading to closer-than-expected games.
Pressure on Favorites: High expectations can add pressure on favored teams, potentially impacting performance.
Strategic Implications for Bettors
Given this trend, bettors might consider:
Evaluating Underdogs: Scrutinize matchups where underdogs are facing large spreads, especially if they have shown resilience in recent games.
Avoiding Overvalued Favorites: Be cautious when betting on teams favored by more than 12 points, as they may not cover the spread despite winning the game.
Analyzing Team Dynamics: Assess factors such as team fatigue, injuries, and recent performance trends before placing bets.
Conclusion
While favorites often win games outright, covering large spreads in February has proven challenging. Bettors should exercise caution and conduct thorough analyses before backing heavily favored teams during this pivotal month.
Want More Betting Systems?
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- First Half Total Bets in Opening Round of NCAA Tournament
