Jimmy Boyd in 
Taking a look ahead to next week, the 2025 NCAA Tournament will be upon us. March Madness draws in almost everyone, including 40 million Americans. There are not too many people who are not involved in at least one bracket pool or trying to find the diamond in the NCAA tournament odds somewhere.
The tourney also increases the action at sports books as a lot of college basketball betting is done on the games. It’s reported that over $2.5 million is wagered in hopes of cashing in one last time before the season is over.
Today we will look at what has been a solid piece of handicapping advice in the NCAA Tournament over the last two years.
Consider this. The opening matchup is the biggest game of most players’ season. With the one-and-done format, it is hard to think there won’t be any first-game jitters. There is the added intensity of the game. The neutral court. All of this means teams could struggle to find their touch. They should be playing hard on defense. Taken together you can see why the under in the first half of opening round games might be a smart play.
Why Bet First-Half Unders in the NCAA Tournament?
Several factors contribute to lower-scoring first halves in the tournament’s early games:
- Nerves and Jitters: For many players, it’s their first appearance on the national stage, leading to early-game anxiety.
- Unfamiliar Venues: Neutral courts can disrupt shooting rythms, espeically in the opening minutes.
- Defensive Intensity: Teams often prioritize defense early, aiming to establish control.
- Lack of Familiarity: Opponents from different conferences may take time to adjust to each other’s styles.
Historical Performances
Analyzing data from the past decade reveals a consistent trend:
- First-half Unders: Since 2015, first-half unders in the NCAA Tournament have hit at a rate of approximately 55%.
- High Total Games: In games where the full-game total is 149 or higher, first-half unders have been particularly profitable, going 21-10 (67.7%) over the last five tournaments.
Handicapping Strategy Considerations
When considering first-half unders:
Monitor Total Lines: Games with higher total lines may offer more value on the under, especially if public betting pushes the line upward.
Assess Team Styles: Teams known for strong defense or slower pace can contribute to lower first-half scores.
Consider Seeding Matchups: While elite teams (1-3 seeds) may score more easily against lower seeds, matchups between closely seeded teams often result in tighter, lower-scoring first halves.
Conclusion
Betting first-half unders in the NCAA Tournament’s opening round has been a profitable strategy, backed by historical data and consistent trends. By focusing on game totals, team styles, and seeding matchups, bettors can identify opportunities to capitalize on this angle during March Madness.
Winning Systems
- Conference Tournaments and Rest Factors
- Teams Bouncing Backs Off Loses to Good Opponents
- Home Favorites Who Haven’t Lost
