There’s a number of factors you have to consider when handicapping NCAA football. One of those is how to handle a tea, coming off a game that got out of hand.
This article takes a look at how teams perform coming off both big wins and big losses. The idea behind this research is I believe there’s value to found in depending on the result. I expected to find a team coming off blowout win to be a bad bet the next week. On the flip side, I thought a team who just got embarrassed would be a stronger play in their next game.
Handicapping NCAAF Teams off Blowout Wins & Losses
Your typical public player sees a team win by a wide margin and will be more inclined to back that team in the future. At the same time, it’s hard to invest your money in a team that couldn’t keep a game competitive.
I’ve gone through the data and put together the results below, as well as my thoughts on the results.
Team Off Win by 35 or More Points
The first thing we are going to check out is teams who dominated in their last game. I’ve decided to go with 35-points as my make or break point for a blowout win.
Unlike the NFL, where a 20-point win is a big deal, things can easily get out of hand in college football. I feel if you beat a team by 5 or more touchdowns, that’s making a statement.
Needless to say, the results weren’t what we were expecting. Instead of being a bad bet, they covered at 52.4% clip in their next contest. Not strong enough to bet blindly. However, it definitely tells you to consider backing these teams off a big victory.
I looked at a number of different scenarios to try and narrow down the results. As you can see, we want to focus more on schools playing on the road, listed as an underdog or facing a team that lost their previous game.
|Home||445-143 (75.7%)||299-272-15 (52.4%)||279-277-16 (50.2%)|
|Away||355-236 (60.1%)||333-250-8 (57.1%)||275-302-14 (47.7%)|
|Opp off Win||436-308 (58.6%)||375-357-12 (51.2%)||350-378-15 (48.1%)|
|Opp off Loss||383-108 (78%)||279-199-12 (58.4%)||232-238-15 (49.4%)|
|Favorite||742-154 (82.8%)||460-414-22 (52.6%)||423-436-22 (49.2%)|
|Underdog||96-258 (27.1%)||201-151-2 (57.1%)||161-184-9 (46.7%)|
|Overall||445-143 (75.7%)||299-272-15 (52.4%)||279-277-16 (50.2%)|
Team Off Loss by More 28 Points & Previous Line < 10
What about a team who just lost badly. How do they respond at the betting window the next week? I focused on those who lost by more than 28-points (4 touchdowns). I also keyed in on when they were either a single-digit underdog or favorite. This way we limit a lot of the bad programs who constantly lose by that many points.
I was dead wrong on where the value would be off blowout wins, but was spot on when it came to responding from a bad defeat. The results show schools in this spot have gone on to cover the spread at a 53.3% rate. That’s good enough you could sit back and bet it blindly and watch your bankroll grow.
Once again this system is made better against the number when they are playing that next game on the road. Simply playing away increases the win rate up to 56.2%.
We also want to look for schools that are coming off a loss. Just that alone increases the win rate to 55.7%.
|Home||254-201-3 (55.8%)||215-208-11 (50.8%)||62-82 (43.0%)|
|Away||138-261-4 )34.6%)||213-166-12 (56.2%)||68-67-3 (50.4%)|
|Opp Off Win||155-273-3 (36.2%)||231-184-10 (55.7%)||71-88-3 (44.7%)|
|Opp Off Loss||220-201-3 (52.3%)||202-199-12 (50.4%)||69-74-1 (48.3%)|
|Overall||408-487-7 (45.6%)||449-394-23 (53.3%)||141-166-4 (45.9%)|