To add a little more flavor to your MLB betting this season, you should add baseball series betting to your repertoire.
Making a series bet is not the most common bet, and it is one that many bettors aren’t even aware of. In case you aren’t exactly sure what I’m referring to by a series bet, this is what I mean.
In the simplest of phrases, you are wagering on which team you think will win a series. For example, say the Chicago Cubs just completed a series victory over the Milwaukee Brewers winning two of three games.
If you liked the Cubs to win that series, you could have placed a bet on them to win at least two of the three games.
I definitely don’t recommend making series betting a regular habit, but I think you’ll agree that there are a number of situations when these bets could be very effective.
Why Not Take Great Teams v. Bad Teams?
You might be asking yourself, why not place a series bet every time an elite team is playing a bottom feeder?
It’s the same reason why betting only elite teams on a daily basis isn’t a smart investment.
Betting teams that are considered elite in the eyes of the public, typically the ones with the best records, requires you to pay heavy juice.
It’s no different with series betting.
The bigger the perceived gap in talent between two teams, the more juice you will have to pay to place a series bet.
If you only place series bets on the best teams against the worst teams, requires you to hit at a very high rate just to show a profit.
You also have to keep in mind that even the worst teams in the MLB win close to 40% of their games.
On top of that, it’s more likely that a bad team will get motivated to play their best baseball against an elite opponent, where the elite team may not take the series all that seriously.
Additional Risk of the Unknown
Another thing to consider before making a series wager is the risk involved with certain players not playing, whether it’s a position player taking a day off or a starter getting skipped over in the rotation.
Unlike betting on an individual game when you can list pitchers, you must make this bet on several games in advance.
You can find out who the projected starters are, but if one suddenly gets sick or an injury flares up and a rookie from double-A or a member of the bullpen has to take the mound, you could be kissing your bet goodbye.
I’m not trying to sour you on this type of betting by any means, but it’s something to consider when placing a series wager.
While pitching changes are going to happen over the course of a season, it’s extremely important to breakdown the starting pitching matchups before placing a series bet.
Where You Can Take Advantage
If the price is good on the team you think will win the set, then by all means go after the books in those spots.
Sometimes a series bet will help you get even better value on a team than playing each game individually.
For example, when a team’s ace is taking the mound in Game 1 of a series, you will almost always see that team heavily favored at home, especially if the ace is considered to be one of the best pitchers in the game.
Instead of paying heavy juice on a money line bet in this spot, it’s often times worth looking at the series price, which might not be all that different than the odds for Game 1, especially if you have what is considered to be an evenly matched series.
Much like betting on games individually, series betting is all about finding value.
Some other things that I like to look for in series betting
- Teams who will be sending out their top three starters against an opponent that just saw their three best starters pitch in the previous series.
- Teams with poor records who are playing well of late and going up against a team with a winning record that is in a slump, especially if the series is at home.
- Teams who are coming off a long road trip that have a strong record at home.
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