Jimmy Boyd in 
For those of you who aren’t familiar with betting the money line in the NFL, it’s simple. You are essentially wagering on who you think will win the game. There’s no point spread involved. There is just an increase in the juice based on the percentage of chances of a team winning outright.
For example, the money line on a 3-point home favorite in the NFL typically closes around -160. This means you would need to wager $160 to win $100 on that team. On the flip side, you could bet the 3-point road underdog in that game at around +142, meaning you would wager $100 to win $142.
What I’m interested in when looking at the weekly NFL odds is whether certain moneyline bets are profitable. You can convert any spread to its moneyline (or a moneyline to its spread) here:
NFL Point Spread to Money Line Conversion Charts
The chart shows it at every spread from 1 to 14 points. The dots are how often favorites actually won outright in every NFL game since 1999 (7,338 games, this season included), bigger where more games landed on that number. The red line is the win chance the typical closing moneyline charged for it, from 2006 on. When the dots sit above the line, favorites at that number won more often than their moneyline priced in. Below it, the underdog’s moneyline was the better side. The buttons switch to underdogs, and to home or road teams. Tap or hover on a dot for the numbers.
Why is this something you need to know? Home favorites of -3.5 win the game 64.6% of the time. Converted, that’s a fair money line of -182. A book will typically make you pay around -184 for a -3.5-point home favorite, which is about fair: no edge either way.
The same goes for underdogs. Say you see a 3-point home underdog and decide you might as well take the money line. The typical price is +140, and the fair price from history is +154. If the actual moneyline comes in lower than the expected moneyline, history says you are not getting value on your wager.
Over every game with a closing moneyline since 2006, betting every favorite on the money line returned -3.5% and every underdog -2.7%. The best number for underdogs has been +4.5 (+5.9% over 195 games); the worst, +7 (-15.6%). These move from season to season, so treat them as a starting point, not a system.
Spreads Converted to Expected Win Percentage
Favorite / underdog in each pair. Win % is how often the favorite won outright since 1999, this season included; * marks spreads with fewer than 150 games, where it comes from the fitted curve. Typical moneyline is the median closing price and the return is what betting every one would have made, 2006 on. 3 and 7 in red.
| Spread | Favorite won | Fair moneyline | Typical moneyline | Moneyline return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.3% | -105 / +105 | -115 / +104 | -4.0% / -0.6% |
| 1.5 | 52.6% | -111 / +111 | -122 / +105 | -1.4% / -4.7% |
| 2 | 57.7% | -137 / +137 | -125 / +112 | -4.6% / -0.4% |
| 2.5 | 53.2% | -114 / +114 | -138 / +123 | -6.6% / +2.2% |
| 3 | 58.2% | -139 / +139 | -159 / +140 | -7.1% / +4.9% |
| 3.5 | 63.6% | -175 / +175 | -184 / +163 | -1.8% / -4.2% |
| 4 | 66.1% | -195 / +195 | -200 / +179 | -5.3% / +2.0% |
| 4.5 | 65.8% | -193 / +193 | -218 / +190 | -7.1% / +5.9% |
| 5 | 70.3% | -237 / +237 | -227 / +201 | -0.7% / -4.9% |
| 5.5 | 65.7% | -192 / +192 | -238 / +206 | -6.1% / +4.8% |
| 6 | 68.5% | -217 / +217 | -253 / +221 | -3.6% / -0.5% |
| 6.5 | 71.6% | -252 / +252 | -275 / +241 | -1.9% / -4.6% |
| 7 | 76.2% | -319 / +319 | -308 / +269 | +2.2% / -15.6% |
| 7.5 | 76.7% | -329 / +329 | -340 / +293 | -2.2% / -4.1% |
| 8 | 75.4%* | -306 / +306 | -375 / +315 | -9.3% / +20.2% |
| 8.5 | 76.7%* | -330 / +330 | -390 / +330 | -14.4% / +37.1% |
| 9 | 75.7% | -311 / +311 | -380 / +335 | -4.0% / +4.9% |
| 9.5 | 79.0% | -376 / +376 | -420 / +361 | +1.7% / -16.2% |
| 10 | 81.4% | -438 / +438 | -450 / +385 | +0.5% / -13.6% |
| 10.5 | 81.6%* | -445 / +445 | -495 / +409 | +0.2% / -11.8% |
| 11 | 82.8%* | -480 / +480 | -536 / +454 | -1.9% / -8.0% |
| 11.5 | 83.8%* | -518 / +518 | -575 / +470 | -7.1% / +14.6% |
| 12 | 84.9%* | -561 / +561 | – | – |
| 12.5 | 85.8%* | -607 / +607 | -700 / +538 | +1.5% / -32.2% |
| 13 | 86.8%* | -657 / +657 | -700 / +550 | +4.7% / -42.3% |
| 13.5 | 87.7%* | -712 / +712 | -782 / +620 | -3.7% / +1.2% |
| 14 | 88.5%* | -772 / +772 | -871 / +650 | +0.3% / -24.2% |
| 14.5 | 89.3%* | -839 / +839 | – | – |
| 15 | 90.1%* | -912 / +912 | – | – |
| 15.5 | 90.8%* | -992 / +992 | – | – |
| 16 | 91.5%* | -1080 / +1080 | – | – |
| 16.5 | 92.2%* | -1178 / +1178 | – | – |
| 17 | 92.8%* | -1286 / +1286 | – | – |
