If you are someone who is struggling to pick winners on a consistent basis and keep finding yourself with an empty bankroll, it’s likely due to a lack of quality information.
That’s why I created the ultimate NFL handicapping guide to help you cash more winning tickets. I’m confident that if you start using the information made available on this page, your profits will increase drastically.
Handicapping the NFL: Developing a Comprehensive Strategy
There’s so much that goes into successfully picking winners. You need to have your own or a reliable source of power ratings: a full understanding of the odds, the power of homefield advantage, impact of injuries, weather, motivation, scheduling and rest.
Gaining an Edge Over the Average BettorMost amateur bettors simply make their picks based off what they saw the previous week or recently heard on TV or the radio. Oddsmakers are well aware of how the rookie handicappers pick their games and use the public perception to their advantage.
You also need quality resources for breaking down matchups, knowledge on how to use trends and systems and the tools to take advantage of future odds, teasers, parlays, props and in-game wagers.
The Ultimate List of NFL Handicapping Resources
- Generating Your Own Spread Using Power Ratings
- Using the Odds to Your Advantage
- Power of Homefield Advantage
- Understanding Impact of Injuries & Weather
- How To Handicap Motivational Factors
- Using Matchup Information & Analysis
- Importance of Looking at Schedule & Rest
- Using Trends & System to Increase Profits
- Tools for Betting Future Odds, Teasers, Parlays, Props & In-Game Wagers
Chapter 1: Generating Your Own Spread Using Power Ratings
Almost every professional handicapper has their own power rating system in some shape or form to help them make more accurate picks. Power rating systems allow you create your own spread for a game before the oddsmakers ever release their number and easily spot when a team is being undervalued or overvalued. Below are several links to some of the most trusted power rating systems available to the public.
Chapter 2: Using the Odds to Your Advantage
How many times have you wagered on a game that you thought the books made a big mistake setting the line, only to watch the other side cover? If you want to be a successful NFL handicapper, you need to have a complete understanding of the odds and how to read into the lines the oddsmakers set. This is especially true in the NFL, where key numbers are critical for long-term success.
Chapter 3: Power of Home Field Advantage
One of the biggest mistakes that I see with amateur bettors is they don’t factor in home field advantage, which has them consistently giving their money away on inflated road favorites. What people don’t realize, is homefield advantage is not just a team’s win/loss record at home, but how much better they are at home compared to on the road. You also have to factor in the magnitude of the game and the opponent they are playing.
Chapter 4: Understanding Impact of Injuries & Weather
It’s no secret that injuries and weather play a critical role in a team’s success over the course of a season and greatly impact their chances of winning on a given week. However, rarely do amateur bettors take advantage of these golden opportunities that come up. Everyone is aware of the key injuries to quarterbacks, wide receivers and running backs, as these are the ones you hear about on TV. While these are important, the books adjust their lines accordingly for these injuries because of the public action that will come in. It’s the offensive linemen and defensive players that routinely get overlooked. As for the weather, how many times do you check the forecast before placing a bet?
Chapter 5: How to Handicap Motivational Factors
Some will argue that motivation is everything in sports. Being able to spot which teams are going to come out with a chip on their shoulder is critical to picking winners in the NFL. What a lot of people don’t realize is that motivation comes in many different forms, whether it be revenge, negative media publicity, failure, etc. You also have to look for teams that will lack motivation, especially late in the year when you have a number of teams who are eliminated from playoff contention.
Chapter 6: Using Matchup Information & Analysis
This is one of the more obvious aspects of NFL Handicapping. Anyone who is betting on sports to make a profit, does some form research before making a wager. There’s an abundant of information made available on the internet to help you breakdown a specific matchup. Here’s a collection of my top resources for the NFL.
Chapter 7: Importance of Looking at Schedule & Rest
Scheduling and rest are two of most important things to look at when handicapping the NFL. It might not seem like much for a team to get a few extra days of preparation after playing in a Thursday night game or one less day after playing on Monday Night Football, but it’s huge advantage/disadvantage for NFL teams. You also have to make sure you are aware of teams having to travel to different time zones, especially with east coast teams traveling to the west coast and vice versa.
- Tips for Betting Preseason
- Preseason Head Coach Records
- How to Bet Teams Off Bye Week
- Bye Week Schedule
- Playoffs Teams Off Bye
- Playoff Betting – Divisional Round
- Playoff Betting – Conference Championship Round
- Top NFL Teams ATS Thursday Night Football
- Top NFL Teams ATS Sunday Night Football
- Top NFL Teams ATS Monday Night Football
Chapter 8: Using Trends & Systems to Increase Profits
Some of you might skeptical to put your trust into a trend or system, as these are all based off what has happened in the past. I for one think there’s a ton of great value in using trends and systems when making NFL picks. The key is figuring out which trends/systems are worth paying attention to and which ones are useless and need to be avoided.
Chapter 9: Tools for Betting Future Odds, Teasers, Parlays, Props & In-Game Wagers
As the sports betting industry continues to grow, so does the number of different types of wagers that you can make. It’s not just about who will cover the spread or whether the game will go over or under the posted total. There’s enormous value out there that professionals are taking advantage of. Don’t you want in on the action?
- Super Bowl Odds
- Super Bowl Prop Bets
- Best Teaser Odds (Updated each week of the season)
- Archived Future Odds
- Season Win Totals
- Using Turnover Differential to Predict Win Totals
- Guide for Betting NFL Props
- Scoring By Quarter
- Middling Halftime Lines
- Betting Halftime Odds
- Archived Halftime Lines
- How Much Coaches Make
- 2-Point Conversion Success Rate