Jimmy Boyd in 
If you’re aiming for a winning streak in your bets this football season, it’s crucial to leverage every possible advantage. One such factor that can significantly sway the outcome of a game is the weather. This article serves as your comprehensive guide on how to incorporate weather conditions into your NFL handicapping strategy.
Decoding the Influence of Weather on NFL Game Outcomes
Before delving into the nitty-gritty of weather handicapping, it’s essential to understand how different weather conditions affect NFL games. Rain, snow, wind, cold, and heat each have a unique influence on the gameplay. For instance, high winds can disrupt the passing and kicking game, while snow and rain can increase fumbles and turnovers. Let’s take a look at each.
Temperature
Extreme temperatures, both hot and cold, can have an impact on player performance and endurance. Pay attention to temperature swings and how certain teams perform in different temperature conditions.
You probably aren’t surprised to learn that one of the biggest edges was going against warm weather teams playing in cold weather. Franchises that are used to the warm weather might not be able to deal with freezing cold temperatures. Teams not used to the heat might not be as equipped to replace fluids when they sweat.
Now in general most games are played between 55-85 degrees and there isn’t a noticeable difference in how those games are played. But when you start getting to the extremes of above 85 or below 55 then passing numbers start to drop. If you think about it, this may be due to receivers not be able to run the same kind of routes at the same kind of pace in the heat, and it being more difficult to throw and catch the ball when it gets to below freezing. So there is a slight drop when you go from 55 to 32, then a pretty significant drop after that.
Wind
High wind speeds can drastically affect the passing and kicking game. Windy conditions usually favor running plays and can lower the total points scored in a game. It’s tough to put an exact number on this because some teams rely more on the passing game while others pound it on the ground. Obviously passing teams are going to be hurt more. In general I see a slight degradation from between 10-20 mph, then things start to go down even more quickly at higher speeds. One study showed that dome teams see a loss of around 6% in passing yards and 5% in completion percentage going to an outdoor venue with just 10 mph winds.
Rain
Wet conditions can lead to a sloppy game, affecting players’ grip on the ball and leading to more turnovers. In rainy games, bettors often favor strong defensive teams and running games. You’ll see passing numbers drop, but rain is a tough thing to handicap. There isn’t a lot of historical data on the amount of rain during games, so being able to put a precise number on forecasted rain conditions isn’t possible. Be on the lookout for light rain, steady rain, and heavy rains. There is going to be a decrease in production the more precipitation falls.
Snow
Like rain, snow can also affect ball handling and visibility. Pay special attention to how much snow is expected and if the teams are used to playing in such conditions. Kicking games struggle as kickers try to make sure to get their feet under them. You’ll obviously see more slips which translate into more misses. Passing is interesting. Some teams see snow and decide they are going to run the ball more, while others know that a slip by a defender is more costly than a slip by a receiver and actually try to air it out more. You really have to know your team’s tendencies in these situations.
Research Historical Team Performance
It’s crucial to research how teams have historically performed under different weather conditions. Some teams might be better equipped and more comfortable playing in adverse weather conditions. For instance, Green Bay Packers are notorious for their cold-weather performance.
Consider the Game’s Location
The location of the game can play a major role in determining the weather. Outdoor stadiums are exposed to weather elements, and the impact on the game is direct. However, some stadiums have retractable roofs, which can be closed to avoid the adverse effects of weather.
Timing Matters
The time of the season and kickoff also matter. Late-season games are more likely to be impacted by severe weather conditions, and night games tend to be colder than day games.
Making Weather-Based Betting Decisions
While the weather should play a role in your betting strategy, it shouldn’t be the only factor considered. Take the weather into account along with other crucial factors like team form, injuries, head-to-head history, etc. The goal is not to make a decision solely based on the weather but to incorporate it into a well-rounded analysis.
Weather conditions can significantly affect the outcome of NFL games, influencing player performance and game strategy. As an informed bettor, factoring weather into your handicapping process can give you an edge over others who overlook this significant variable. Remember, all weather isn’t bad weather, especially if you’re prepared for it in your betting strategy.
Where to Find NFL Weather Reports
So now that you know what you want to look for is there an easy place to see the weather reports for every NFL game this week? Of course there is. I think the key though is to look at different forecasts so you can get a complete picture. Then you can investigate if one of the sites is giving you something really unique.
If this seems like too much work for you then check out the free NFL picks our guys put out every week!