Last updated: August 10, 2026 5:07 pm
Looking for free NFL picks against the spread to help you win this week? Our handicappers share their best bets, updated weekly with time-stamped analysis for total transparancy.
While these plays just missed our premium card, they give you a real look at our experts' process. Plus, if you are looking for more options we have teaser picks and survivor pool insights each week.
For our experts' highest-rated, guaranteed best bets, consider a premium NFL package or long-term subscription.
Today's Best NFL ATS Picks
Alex Smart
The Packers roll into Pittsburgh Thursday night for the first full preseason game of the year, and the total is sitting right in that familiar 36.5 to 37.5 window. I’m on the under, and the deeper you dig into the league-wide and team numbers the more it feels like the right side of the math.
League-wide, the 37 threshold has been a reliable separator for years. Closing totals of 37 or higher have gone under at a 56.4 percent clip since 2010, a sample that runs well over 900 games. Since 2014 the under on those 37-plus numbers is even cleaner at 60.7 percent, returning solid units at standard pricing. The reverse holds too. When the number opens at 37 or lower the over hits closer to 59 or 60 percent. This matchup is perched right on the line, but the historical lean still favors the lower side once you account for how little the real starters play these days. Last year only 9.8 percent of preseason pass attempts came from quarterbacks who ended up starting Week 1. That is a sharp drop from the 30-plus percent range we saw a decade ago, and it means more backup-driven football, more conservative play-calling, and fewer explosive finishes.
The Steelers themselves have been a quiet under machine at home in the exhibition season. From 2002 through 2025 Pittsburgh as the home team went under in 67.4 percent of its preseason games, a 14-29-2 record that has produced double-digit units over the long haul. That is not a small-sample fluke. It lines up with the physical, run-heavy identity the organization has carried for years, even when the first-team defense sits most of the night. Green Bay has not been as extreme, but the Packers still play a brand of football that keeps games from turning into track meets, especially on the road in August.
Add the outdoor night setting in western Pennsylvania and the picture gets clearer. Early-season humidity and potential weather keep the ball on the ground more than the public expects. Combined scores in Week 1 preseason games have historically averaged just under 39 points against posted numbers that often sit in the mid-to-high 30s. When you stack the league-wide 56-to-60 percent under rate on 37-plus totals with Pittsburgh’s strong home under history, the edge starts looking real. At -110 a 56 percent hit rate over a 100-game sample nets you positive return after the juice. A 60 percent clip turns it into a steady grind that keeps bankrolls healthy over time.
There is the Rodgers-McCarthy reunion angle, and yes, the veteran may take 30 or 40 snaps against his old club. Even if he does, the majority of the game still belongs to the second and third units still working through timing and communication. Those groups rarely light up the scoreboard in Week 1. I like this under. It matches the long-term numbers, the team-specific home trend, and the reality of limited starter volume. Keep the stake sensible, enjoy the nostalgia, and let the points stay low.
Why Trust Our Free NFL Picks & Predictions
If you want free betting advice from top experts, you have come to the right spot.
Here at Boyd’s Bets, we have 90+ handicappers. The majority of them give away their tips on a side or total each week for everyone to see.
We’re also aware that you want to see records to back up the work. We use long-term trends to put together our article on the best NFL handicappers.
Providing full transparency is a high priority for us. With every free best bet, you will see the time of the selection as well as the odds the expert uses. As you will see, our handicappers use the same NFL betting lines that are available to everyone else in Las Vegas or online.
All of the picks on our site are tracked and verified. You’ll be able to see all premium picks posted on the handicappers’ pages shortly after kickoff, and they’ll stay there the following day.
Of course, we are going to have losing days, but we have nothing to hide. We know the winners will far outnumber the losers.
How to Use These Free NFL Best Bets
Not everyone is looking for the same thing when it comes to choosing a tipster service. Unlike other sites, we understand and appreciate that.
We have pros who specialize in several different areas. You can decide if you want strong analysis, long-term winners, a big play they feel strongly about, or just someone who is on a hot streak heading into this week.
That’s the best part of the free NFL football pick page. It gives you an inside look at how each handicapper makes his selections. You can be confident that the picks you receive are exactly what you are looking for.
Are you more concerned with finding someone who is on top of his game this season? We have you covered there as well. Our leaderboards will show the wins, losses, and profits for everyone starting with the first kickoff of the year.
Learn From Experts on Making Your Own ATS Bets Today
Are you new to betting on the NFL? I’ll briefly explain some bet types you’ll see on this page:
Moneyline: A moneyline bet is simply picking which team will win the game outright, with odds showing the favorite (minus sign) and the underdog (plus sign).
Spread: The point spread evens the field by assigning a margin the favorite must win by; covering the spread means winning by more than that number.
Totals (Over/Under): A totals bet is wagering on whether the combined points scored by both teams will go over or under the number set by the sportsbook.
We have a special page dedicated to understanding the NFL odds that goes into more depth. There, you will find a detailed explanation of all the different types of wagers. You will learn about parlays, teasers, prop bets, futures, and much more.
Understanding the different types of bets you can make is one thing. Picking games on your own is another. It’s not as easy as it looks. That’s why we put together your ultimate source of pro football betting-related information. Visit our NFL handicapping guide to get up to speed quickly!
It’s our goal to make sure that you have the best experience possible this football season. We encourage you to contact us with any questions you might have at jimmy@boydsbets.com.
FAQ
How accurate are the free NFL picks?
Historically, free NFL picks hit in the 53–55% range, which is a solid performance over the long term. While they aren’t always the strongest plays on a handicapper’s card, they still reflect the same data-driven approach and analysis used for premium selections. The key is consistency over the season rather than expecting every single pick to cash.
Who are the best NFL handicappers?
The best NFL handicappers are those who demonstrate long-term consistency and transparency. On BoydsBets, you can view leaderboards and long-term trends to see exactly which experts are performing at the highest level. This makes it easy to follow proven winners and track their results week after week.
When do the free NFL picks get posted?
Posting times depend on the handicapper. Some experts release their NFL picks as early as Monday to get ahead of line moves, while others wait until just a few hours before kickoff to factor in injuries, weather, or betting market shifts. That’s why it pays to check the page regularly throughout the week.
What is the difference between free and premium NFL picks?
Free NFL picks are posted daily to give bettors a transparent look at our handicappers’ process and provide value plays you can use right away. Premium NFL picks, on the other hand, are the strongest selections on a handicapper’s card — backed by deeper analysis, higher confidence, and often supported by long-term guarantees. Free picks are a great way to follow along, but premium picks are designed to maximize profit with a handicapper’s very best bets.
