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The Play and How to Play it:
The Play: Denver (301)
The Matchup: DENVER (4 - 9) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 10)
Start Time: Week 15 Thursday, 12/14/2017 8:25 PM
SIM grading: 4 stars on a 3 to 10 star grading scale.
Recommended Strategy: Place a 4 star wager amount on Denver using the line.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics
Colts will have trouble establishing long scoring drives against Denver. It starts for the Denver Defense with Bradley Roby, who ranks second in the NFL in forced incompletions. When QB’s have tried to complete passes with Roby defending they have been unsuccessful in 34% of those attempts. So, logically, we do expect that T.Y. Hilton will not see many targets given that Roby will more than likely be the defender.
The Colts ranks 31st gaining just 291 yards per game and will be going against the best defense in the NFL that allows 281 YPG.
Game Intelligence Analytics
The following database system query has gone 38-13 ATS hitting 75% winners and has made $2,370 wagering $100 per game since 2007. The system has also produced a consistent 23-8 ATS record over the past five seasons.
Play against all teams in conference games where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANAPOLIS).
After going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games.
SIM Matching Game Situations
Colts are a terrible 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games.
Denver is a solid 52-30 ATS (+19.0 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards.
Colts are 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards-per-attempt.
Colts are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they commit 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
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1* Free Play on the New York Giants.
Eli Manning and the Giants are playing for pride the rest of the way. Last week New York fell 30-10 to Dallas. Injuries and other issues led to the Giants miserable season, but they won’t be going down without a fight. They also play with revenge after falling to the Eagles 27-24 earlier in the year. Philadelphia comes in off a 43-35 win at the Rams, but the victory came at a major cost, as starting QB Carson Wentz has now been lost for the remainder of the season to injury. Note that Philadelphia is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 played on “turf,” while New York is 2-1 ATS this year off a division game, 2-1 ATS after a loss to a division rival and 4-3 ATS after two or more consecutive losses. Consider the GIANTS in this one.
Play - Broncos-Colts OVER (Game 301).
Edges - Broncos: 2-0 OVER in games following a shutout win; and 4-2 OVER last six Thursday night games… Colts: 7-2 OVER last nine Thursday games… With these two teams having played OVER in the total in each of the last four meetings in this series, we recommend a 1* play on the OVER total in this game. Thank you and good luck as always.
> Marc’s powerful database shares another NFL 7* Killer Key Play on Saturday’s card backed with a coach and his team in an incredible NEVER LOST winning situation. You know exactly what to do!
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