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Recommendation: Take the Cincinnati Bengals (#455)
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The Pittsburgh Steelers got a win and cover against the Chiefs last week, but it wasn’t because their offense was fixed. Pittsburgh has struggle week after week on the offensive side of the football, averaging less than 20 points per game (#22 in the NFL) despite their bevy of skill position talent. Much of the problem has come from the QB position, where, quite frankly, Ben Roethlisberger looks old. And the quotes coming out of the Steelers locker room have this bettor very concerned with the fragile mental state of this team right now.
Check out this Roethlisberger quote, talking about former tight end Heath Miller, who retired two years ago. “You develop that relationship with Heath over years and years in practice. Plus the type of person and teammate he was. He was probably the best teammate I’ve ever played with and one of the best men I’ve ever known in my life.” Contrast that quote with the Martavis Bryant ‘I want to be traded’ rumors. Note the modest production from rookie WR JuJu Smith Schuster.
Right now, Antonio Brown is the only consistent downfield weapon that they have. RB LeVeon Bell had 35 touches on the Steelers 63 offensive snaps last week – too many for a balanced offense. In three October starts, Big Ben has a 2-7 TD-INT ratio, and he currently ranks #30 out of 32 NFL QB’s in passer rating. Both TD passes during that span came on poorly thrown balls – both could have been INT’s! And it’s surely worth noting that the Steelers lauded home field edge at Heinz Field isn’t so great these days. Mike Tomlin’s squad is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven regular season tries as home chalk.
While the Steelers offense continues to struggle, the Bengals appear to have figured it out! Andy Dalton threw four picks without a TD over the first two weeks before Marvin Lewis fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese after facing a ‘near mutiny’ in the locker room. The Red Rifle completed only 54% of his passes while averaging just 6.0 yards per attempt in those games.
In the three games under new OC Bill Lazor, there’s been a ‘night and day’ type difference. Dalton’s completion percentage is up to 73%, he’s averaging 8.9 yards per attempt with a 7-2 TD-INT ratio. Tight end Tyler Kroft is developing into a solid weapon over the middle for Dalton; a team that isn’t missing injured tight end Tyler Eifert as much as they did last year. This sure feels like a ‘somebody wins it by a field goal’ kind of game. Too many points! Take the Bengals.
I'm not going to be shy about this , two time MVP QB Aaron Rodgers, was a one man wrecking crew for the Green Bay Packers. When he went down last week vs the Minnesota Vikings with a broken collar bone, I'm sure the Packer nations hearts were broken and the fragments flushed down the proverbial toilet on a promising season. With that said, I'm not a fan of his replacement Brett Hundley, and feel strongly the Packers are now at a big disadvantage despite of playing at home this week vs New Orleans. Green Bay even when Rodgers was healthy never did very well against NFC South opposition going a sub par 9-11 SU . The last time Green Bay played without Rodgers 4 seasons ago they won only 2 of 7 games , and were just 0-4 ATS at home. Note: The Saints have given up an opponent passer rating of 56.7 during their current three-game winning streak.
Projected score: New Orleans 27 Green Bay 17
Play on the Saints to cover
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Tennessee Titans and the Cleveland Browns face off on Sunday, and the visiting team have the advantage here.
The Cleveland Browns have been well, the Cleveland Browns this year, and that isn't a good thing at all.
The Browns have lost all six games so far this year, and in last five of those games they have failed to cover the spread.
They are going back with DeShone Kizer in this game and he has really struggled this year. He has thrown for 851 yards and three touchdowns.
The big issue though is he has thrown nine picks. I think that he will struggle again in this game and that will be the difference.
Some trends to note. Road team is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Titans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Cleveland.
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Free Pick on Rams UNDER
Analysis will be posted shortly
The Titans battle the Browns and this number is too small given how bad the Browns have played this year.
They have struggled to even decide who gets the ball at QB. Kizer was benched for Kevin Hogan last week, but Kizer will once again get the ball here on Sunday.
Offensively, Cleveland just makes way too many mistakes. Averaging only 15.7 points per game, the Browns have seen more of their punter than anyone else this season.
Tennessee comes in off a huge win against the Colts, as they climbed back to the .500 mark. Derrick Henry has a huge game as he put up 131 yards and a touchdown to go with it. He will certainly get fed the ball a lot here, as this Cleveland defense has a lot of gaps in it.
Some trends to note. Browns are 6-25-1 ATS in their last 32 games overall.Browns are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games.
The Browns are just simply a struggle right now.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
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