It can be tricky trying to figure out how teams are going to respond after the All-Star break, but we have found three profitable situations to help you build your bankroll after the layoff.
Without going into complete detail of every sequence of every year, I decided to go back and review how teams performed at home in their first game back from the All-Star break.I looked at three different classifications: home favorites, home underdogs, as well as looking how they performed against the total in each classification.
The theory heading into this idea was that pitchers should hold an edge, as the first game after the break often finds rotations undisturbed, while hitters may be rusty having had 4 days off.
Home favorites should also have a slight edge, as they get to stay at home the entire break while the opponent has to travel the day before and take the field on the road the next day.
Look at the Results
Home favorites are 59-30 (66.3%) in their first game back from the All-Star Break, compared to the average home favorite that has won 58.3% of the time since 2004.
Home dogs have lost their edge when it comes to the layoff. It appears the likelihood of a home dog winning is diminished by the four day layoff as they are just 9-22 at 29% in their first game back, compared to 44.3% in all games since 2004.
Home favorites have played to pitching prowess, as the Over/Under in the games played upon return from the all-star break show 31-56 Over/Under or a 64.4% advantage to the Under.
In summary, it’s wise to take a look at three key areas on return from the All-Star break:
- Home favorites (59-30)
- Home Favorite Totals (56-31 to the UNDER)
- Play Against Home Dogs (9-22)
Combined all 3 systems have gone 136-71 at 65.7% since 2004!
The below table is represented by: P – positive results, N – negative results, and O – break even results
|Year||Home Favorite||Under||Home Dog (Fade)|
As you can see from the able above, out of 36 possible outcomes, there were 27 positive results, 8 negative results, and one outcome that broke even.
At least two of the three categories were positive in 10 of the 12 years with one of the years at 1-1-1, so only one year did we see two of the three situations lose. There have been 5 years where all 3 categories profited.
These are my favorite type of wagers for a couple of reasons.
The books don’t see them coming, and having them based on three completely different criteria hedges against one of them not performing and lowers the risk.
It is up to the bettor to decide if this is for him/her or not, as a cluster wager requires a lot of wagers in one day and in this case it necessitates, on average, 17.25 plays per year, all on the same day.
There are of course no guarantees, but I have had great success with this type of wagering over the years because they are risk adverse, spreading the action out over unrelated situations.
Fading Great Teams in July
You might find it as a surprise that there have been only 4 teams since 2010 who have won at least 60% of their games.
Keep in mind that there are 30 MLB teams. If you take into consideration of what we have seen the last 6 years, there’s only a 2.2% chance a team will finish at .600 or better or in 2016.
With that said, there’s a good chance that there will be a few teams that are sitting above the .600 mark around the midway point of the season. Needless to say, these teams are going to be public favorites, as the public loves nothing more than to back the best teams.
This sets us up for a great situation to fade these teams down the stretch, as they are going to be consistently overvalued on the baseball lines set for their games.
Since 2004 teams that have won 60% or more of their games from July 1st on are 1155-957 (54.7%). But, you’ll find these teams have average of -145 favorites. This means you would have a 1.5% ROI by fading them!
If you only fade the 60% or better teams when they are favorites your ROI jumps to 3.4%.
This is a typical result when the public starts thinking a team can’t lose. The odds makers have to adjust and you can play the other side for a profit.
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