The MLB All-Star Week is here and it’s a great time to evaluate your baseball betting strategies. I wanted to share with you a couple of MLB handicapping systems that have excelled this time of year.
Check out who is the favorite to win it all for the 2017 World Series.
One of them looks at how teams perform in their first game back from the All-Star layoff. The second is based on fading the elite teams once the calendar turns to July.
Post All-Star Break MLB Betting Systems & Strategies
It can be tricky trying to figure out how each team is going to respond after the break. I have found three profitable situations to help you build your bankroll.
I went back and focused on the performance at home in their first game. I looked at both home favorites and home underdogs. As well as looking how they performed against the total.
The theory heading into this idea was that pitchers should hold an edge. Rotations are undisturbed after the break. That means we are getting a lot of aces to kick things back up. The extra rest only helps a pitcher, where the time off can disrupt a hitters’ rhythm at the plate.
I also assumed home favorites would have an edge. This is pretty straight forward given home field advantage. It might not seem like much, but not having to travel is an advantage. I also think it’s a little easier to come out flat on the road after a long layoff.
The results were encouraging. Home favorites are 68-32 (68%) in game one after the break. Compare this to the average home favorite that has won 58.3% of the time since 2004.
While betting underdogs can be profitable, home dogs have lost their edge when it comes to the layoff. They are just 15-23 at 39.5% in their first game back. I’m a little more skeptical of this one, as the sample size is still very small. However, it’s worth noting that home dogs have hit 44% in all games going back to 2004. Biggest thing to keep in mind is that these are typically going to be some really bad clubs.
When it comes to the total. The only significant finding game with home favorites. The under 56-40-3, which is a profitable 58.3%. Note that the last couple of years have produced some great results. During this stretch the under has gone 16-4-1, which comes out to an amazing 80% win rate.
|Year||Home Favorite (Bet On)||Under W/ Home Fav (Bet On)||Home Dog (Fade)|
|2016||5-4 (55.6%)||6-2-1 (75%)||2-4 (33.3%)|
|2015||10-3 (76.9%)||10-2 (83.3%)||2-0 (100%)|
|2014||9-3 (75%)||6-5-1 (54.5%)||0-4 (0.0%)|
|2013||6-4 (60%)||7-3 (70%)||2-3 (40.0%)|
|2012||6-6 (50%)||6-5-1 (54.5%)||2-2 (50.0%)|
|2011||3-2 (60%)||1-4 (20%)||1-2 (33.3%)|
|2010||3-1 (75%)||2-2 (50%)||1-3 (25%)|
|2009||3-2 (60%)||4-1 (80%)||1-1 (50%)|
|2008||7-1 (87.5%)||4-4 (50.0%)||1-3 (25%)|
|2007||6-3 (66.7%)||6-3 (66.7%)||1-0 (100%)|
|2006||5-2 (71.4%)||4-3 (57.1%)||0-1 (0.0%)|
|2005||2-0 (100%)||2-0 (100%)|
|2004||3-1 (75%)||1-3 (25%)||2-0 (100%)|
|TOTAL||68-32 (68%)||56-40-3 (58.3%)||15-23 (39.5%)|
Combined all 3 systems have gone 147-87 at 62.8% since 2004! These are my favorite type of wagers for a couple of reasons.
The books don’t see them coming. Having them based on three completely different criteria hedges against one of them not performing well. In turn lowering our risk of suffering a loss in profits.
It is up to the bettor to decide if this is for him/her or not. A cluster wager requires a lot of bets in one day. On average these systems combine to produce right around 17 plays each year.
There are of course no guarantees, but I have had great success with this type of wagering. A big reason why is they are risk adverse, spreading the action out over unrelated situations.
Fading Elite (WP >=60%) Major League Baseball Teams After July 1st
You might find it as a surprise that there have been only 5 times since 2010 where a team has won at least 60% of their games. The most recent being the 2016 Chicago Cubs, who won 64% of their games (103-58).
Keep in mind that there are 30 clubs. Let’s look at just the last 7 years. There’s only a 2.4% chance a team will end the regular season having won 60% or more.
There’s a good chance that there will be a few each year sitting at or above the .600 mark around the midway point. These are going to be public favorites, as the public loves nothing more than to back the best teams.
This sets us up for a great situation to fade these clubs down the stretch. They are going to be consistently overvalued on the baseball lines set for their games.
Since 2004 teams with 60% winning percentage at any point after July 1st have gone on to go 1250-1033 (54.8%).That win rate over that many games would provide a massive profit if betting on a football spread or total. The money line in baseball is a whole different story. These teams have average of -146 favorites.You would have a 1.7% ROI by fading them!
The system gets strong if you skip out on the road games. If you only fade them at home your ROI jumps from 1.7% to 3.2%. Why is this?
It’s all about the value in the odds. These elite teams have an average line of -165 at home compared to -135 on the road. That means we aren’t getting near the value on the dog. If we fade them at the home we get an average line of +150 compared to +125 on the highway.