Jimmy Boyd in 
NFL survivor pools, also known as knockout, eliminator, or last-man standing pools, have become a popular way for fans to have skin in the game during the pro football season. In these pools, participants are required to pick one NFL team each week. If the chosen team wins (or sometimes ties), the participant moves on to the next week. However, if the team loses, the participant is out of the pool. The catch? You can only pick a specific team once per season. This format continues until there’s only one participant left, who is then declared the winner.
If you are looking for a contest to enter, check out our list of NFL knockout pools available or the guide to starting your own eliminator contest. If you want information on other season long bets, we break down the Super Bowl odds and NFL win totals as well.
NFL Survivor Pool Strategy: Myth of Pure Luck
While luck plays a role in any time you are engaged in NFL betting, you can use strategy to give you an edge in survivor pools. With the one-pick-per-team rule, participants must think ahead, considering not only the current week’s matchups but also the future schedule. This requires a deep understanding of team dynamics, injury reports, and even weather conditions that might affect gameplay.
The early weeks of the NFL season can be particularly unpredictable, with teams still finding their rhythm. Making informed decisions during this period can set participants on a path to success. It’s essential to consider which teams to “save” for later in the season and which ones to “use” early on, based on their initial performances and matchups.
While it might be tempting to pick the strongest teams in the initial weeks, this strategy can backfire in the long run. By using up the top teams early on, participants might find themselves with limited options in the crucial later weeks. It’s a balance between ensuring survival in the early stages and having strong picks available for the endgame.
Using Game Theory & Expected Value to Win Your Eliminator Pool
In survivor pools, going with the crowd isn’t always the best strategy. If a significant number of participants pick a particular team and that team loses, it can result in a massive elimination. By diversifying picks and sometimes going against the grain, participants can increase their chances of staying in the game. Let’s use an example to illustrate this point.
Survivor pools are competitive by nature. Every participant’s loss is another’s gain. To outlast opponents, it’s crucial to think several steps ahead, considering not only one’s own picks but also predicting opponents’ choices and strategizing accordingly.
Value-driven picks involve choosing teams that, while not necessarily the strongest on paper, offer the best value in terms of potential rewards versus risks. This might mean picking a mid-tier team with a favorable matchup rather than a top-tier team that everyone else is likely to choose.
Let’s say you are down to the last 100 people in a massive pool and there is one final game that everyone has to make a pick on. The Kansas City Chiefs are 7-point favorites over the Detroit Lions. The other 99 people are all on the Chiefs, would you be willing to take the Lions even though they are underdogs in the game? You should. If you take the Chiefs and they win you will split the payout 100 different ways, but if you take the Lions and they win, you get it all to yourself.
While that example is an exaggerated one, it should help you start thinking about my point. I use Survivor Grid to help guide the choices I recommend each week with my NFL survivor pool picks article because they pull in popularity numbers from a variety of sources and it helps me get an idea of the value in taking the teams that aren’t just the biggest favorites.
Using Future Value for Your NFL Knockout Strategy
The one-time pick rule is what makes survivor pools so challenging. Participants must decide when to “burn” a team, meaning when to use their one pick for a particular team. This requires foresight and the ability to predict a team’s performance throughout the season. You’ll need to have a map which is a team’s season-long schedule.
If there is a team that you know is going to be good week after week you can probably afford to save them. However, if there is a star player out for a bad team, you might want to look to fade them by taking a mediocre squad. This will help you burn a team you might not get a chance to use later in the season while saving some of your horses for the end game.
The goal is to outlast all opponents, which might require surviving well beyond mid-season. Focusing solely on short-term survival can lead to poor long-term decisions.
So to sum it all up, don’t just take the most favored team each week. Instead, factor in how popular that pick will be and the future schedules of the team. This isn’t a guaranteed path to success, but it will definitely increase your chances of taking down your contest this season!