Jimmy Boyd in 
NFL survivor pools are becoming more and more popular every season and we have a list of popular contests you can enter. While “Survivor” is the most commonly used name for this contest, several will refer to it as a Knockout, Elimination, or Suicide Pool.
The goal is pretty straightforward. In order to win the NFL survivor pool, you simply have to be the last person left standing by not making any losing picks.
How it Works:
Unlike fantasy leagues, where you often will look to cap your league at a certain number of players, the more people the better in a Survivor Pool.
Most of these pools will require an entry fee. How much is really up to you and the people you are playing with? I think a good starting point is $50.
The number of people and entry fee all need to be taken care of prior to the season starting.
Using the Week 1 schedule, all contestants will submit one team that they think will win. If the team you selected wins, you advance to Week 2.
If the team you pick loses, it’s game over (some suicide pool leagues do offer people the chance to buy back in if they lose prior to Week 5 or something).
The big catch is that you can only use each team once. For example, if you pick the Packers to win in Week 1, they are no longer an option the rest of the way.
You keep repeating the process until there is only one person left in the survivor pool. If by chance multiple people go all 18 weeks without losing, the pot is typically split between all remaining survivors. However, it’s pretty rare that it comes down to this.
Our guide to starting your own last man standing pool covers all the details.
General Game Theory & Strategy for Making Suicide Pool Picks
Basic Guidelines
- Use Vegas Point Spreads – It would be silly to not at least take a look at the NFL betting lines for the games. The books are straight up telling you who they think the better team is. You are going to last a lot longer in this thing picking teams who are -7 or more than trying to sneak by each week with a small favorite or underdog.
- Try to Avoid Road Teams – It’s not easy winning on the road in the NFL. In 2018 there were only 7 teams in the entire league that posted a winning record away from home.
- Be Careful of Division/Rivalry Games – Crazy things seem to happen in division/rivalry games. You see a lot of upsets in these matchups. Try to avoid these unless there’s a significant gap in talent.
- Check Injury Report/Suspensions – I think this is pretty straightforward. The big point I want to make is that it might not be a bad idea to wait until closer to the deadline to make your pick for the week. More and more injury information becomes available the closer we get to game time. Why not wait and use that info to your advantage?
- Don’t Just Focus on the Best Teams – Too many people get caught up in picking the best teams, while this could lead to some early success in your pool, it’s going to be difficult to maneuver your way through the second half of the season with a bunch of bad teams to pick from.
Pro Tips
- Advanced Scheduling – Don’t just look at things on a week-to-week basis. If you want to consistently be one of the last people left in your pool, you need to start looking at the schedule as a whole. Vegas sets early odds in the spring/summer for every game Week 1 – Week 18. Use these odds to see how many easy games (-7 or more) each team has. Teams with a lot of easy games are ones you want to save until later. Good teams with only a few elite spots to back, are ones you want to look to play early on. If you have the time, try to map out your picks for every week before the season starts.
- Pick Percentages – This is the contrarian approach to Survivor Pools. You want to use whatever resources you can (ESPN, Yahoo, etc..) to try and find out what the consensus picks are for that week and avoid these teams. The goal here is to take less obvious choices who are maybe playing against a bad team and hope that there are some big upsets. If 60% of the pool is on one team and that team loses, your chances of winning go up drastically.
You can also check out my NFL knockout strategies for more information on doing it yourself.
Best Free NFL Expert Last Man Standing Pool Picks
Each week, I’ll share my thoughts on some teams. I’ll tell you my favorite team to play, some others you might want to consider, and a few that I recommend avoiding.
Note that a lot of the logic used for survivor pool picks goes hand-in-hand with handicapping the point spreads.
For more great content this week check out my teaser of the week or the free expert NFL picks released by our team of handicappers.
Our Best Survivor Picks & Contest Help: Week 9
Every favorite on the Week 9 board, ranked by pool equity: the win probability from the sharpest moneylines on the market against the share of the pool you would split a win with. The biggest favorite is rarely the best pick, because that is where the pool is. Each team gets a call on whether to use it now or save it. Lines as of Wednesday, November 4 at 7:00 AM CT.
Last week in survivor pools
The Cowboys carried 6.7% of survivor entries in Week 8 and lost 33-30 to the Cardinals. About 7% of entries went out that week. My top pick, the Bengals, won.
Entries out, Week 8
~7%
Best available
Top value play
Avoid
Best Available
Seattle Seahawks -12.5 vs Arizona Cardinals, Sunday
84%
Seattle just got run over 34-17 by Chicago, but this week it arrives with new Pro Bowl guard Quenton Nelson and a healthy Zach Charbonnet and Jadarian Price, while Arizona just benched Jacoby Brissett for Gardner Minshew and lost rookie back Jeremiyah Love to IR for a second ankle issue. That mess against a defense allowing 29.8 points a game is why Seattle sits at -12.5 (12.5) for 84%. Only 17% of pools have this boarded, far fewer than Detroit’s roughly 25% at about 73%, so a Seahawks win carries a similar shot while building more separation than the chalk. Las Vegas in Week 10 only grades to 67%, so spend Seattle now.
San Francisco 49ers -10 vs Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday
79%
San Francisco is rolling at 6-1, and the only real wound is Brandon Aiyuk, done for the season on a personal matter even as he lines up Drew Rosenhaus for an eventual comeback. Las Vegas just survived the Jets by committee, benching its own workhorse Ashton Jeanty to two carries while Kirk Cousins throws into a defense that’s given up 397 yards a game. That mismatch, plus two weeks of rest against a Raiders team on a short week, has the 49ers at -10 (10) for 79%. Only 6% of pools are on them, nowhere near the Lions’ 25% at 73%, so a 49ers win builds equity the Detroit crowd can’t touch. Week 10 at Dallas only grades to 60%, so cash San Francisco now.
Jacksonville Jaguars -10 at Baltimore Ravens, Thursday
80%
Trevor Lawrence just torched Indianapolis 42-7 even as Jacksonville lost DaVon Hamilton and Eric Murray for the season, and now Baltimore is turning to rookie Joe Fagnano under center after Lamar Jackson had thumb surgery and landed on IR. A 5-2 team averaging 28 points against a rookie-led offense that just got blown out by Buffalo is why the Jaguars sit at -10 (10) on the road, good for 80%. Only 11% of pools have this side, nowhere near the Lions’ roughly 25% at 73%, so a Jacksonville win builds equity most of the field doesn’t have. Their Week 12 trip to Tennessee grades higher at 83%, so save that one and spend Jacksonville now.
Top Value Play
Chicago Bears -6 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday
71%
Caleb Williams just torched Seattle for 34 points in his Bears debut with new trade acquisition Jeffery Simmons, who logged a sack and six tackles the same week he arrived from Tennessee. Tampa Bay won last week without completing a single pass, leaning on Bucky Irving in sloppy conditions, and now loses edge rusher Yaya Diaby for the year to a Grade 2 MCL sprain. That gap has Chicago at -6 (6) for 71% at home. Only 8% of pools are on the Bears, so a win here pulls you clear of the Lions crowd at roughly 25% sitting on 73%, worth about 5% more equity than matching that field. Week 11 at New Orleans grades to 67%, but that’s the spot to save. Spend Chicago now.
Teams to Avoid
Detroit Lions -7 at Miami Dolphins, Sunday
73%
Detroit just saw Jack Campbell carted off on a backboard against Minnesota, and while the team called the early signs on his neck positive, that’s the kind of scare that lingers on a defense already missing Kerby Joseph. Miami is 1-6, scoring 16.7 a game with Malik Willis throwing nearly as many picks as touchdowns, which is why the Lions sit at -7 (7) for 73% on the road. The problem is 25% of pools are already on Detroit, so a win only keeps pace with that quarter of the field while a loss takes you out with it. San Francisco offers the same equity shared with just 6% of entries, and Detroit’s own number actually grades better later, Week 14 against Tennessee at 78%. Save it.
Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 vs New York Jets, Sunday
78%
Mahomes and the Chiefs just blew a goal-to-go chance on five straight snaps and lost 28-24 at Denver, but Rashee Rice is back from his hamstring injury and Arrowhead against a 2-6 Jets team that just lost 38-33 to the Raiders is a different animal. Geno Smith and that Jets offense face a Chiefs defense allowing 324.7 yards a game, which has Kansas City sitting at -9.5 (9.5) for 78%. The issue is the crowd, 19% of pools already on this side of a 78% favorite, so a win here just keeps you even with that group and burns them for nothing gained. Save the Chiefs for Week 11 against Arizona, projected at 75%, and look elsewhere this week.
Week 9 Survivor Board
| # | Favorite | Spread | Win % | Pick % | Best week to use |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Seattle Seahawks Best availablevs Arizona Cardinals, Sundaydivision game | -12.5 | 84% | 17% | this week |
| 2 | San Francisco 49ers Best availablevs Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday | -10 | 79% | 6% | this week |
| 3 | Jacksonville Jaguars (road) Best availableat Baltimore Ravens, Thursdayroad favorite; short week | -10 | 80% | 11% | this week |
| 4 | Kansas City Chiefs Avoidvs New York Jets, Sunday | -9.5 | 78% | 19% | this week |
| 5 | Chicago Bears Value playvs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday | -6 | 71% | 8% | this week |
| 6 | Los Angeles Rams (road)at Washington Commanders, Sundayroad favorite | -5.5 | 69% | 2% | either week |
| 7 | Dallas Cowboys (road)at Indianapolis Colts, Sundayroad favorite | -5.5 | 69% | 4% | either week |
| 8 | Houston Texans (road)at Los Angeles Chargers, Sundayroad favorite | -4.5 | 67% | 2% | this week |
| 9 | Detroit Lions (road) Avoidat Miami Dolphins, Sundayroad favorite | -7 | 73% | 25% | either week |
| 10 | Buffalo Bills (road)at Minnesota Vikings, Mondayroad favorite | -3 | 63% | 1% | save for Week 11 |
| 11 | New York Giants (road)at Philadelphia Eagles, Sundayroad favorite; division game | -3.5 | 62% | 2% | this week |
| 12 | New England Patriotsvs Green Bay Packers, Sundayrest disadvantage | -3 | 61% | 0% | this week |
| 13 | Cincinnati Bengals (road)at Atlanta Falcons, Sundayroad favorite; coin flip | -3 | 60% | 1% | save for Week 12 |
| 14 | Denver Broncos (road)at Carolina Panthers, Sundayroad favorite; rest disadvantage; coin flip | -3 | 59% | 2% | save for Week 13 |
| 15 | New Orleans Saintsvs Cleveland Browns, Sundaycoin flip | -1.5 | 51% | 0% | either week |
Teams are ranked by pool equity, not win probability: a team’s chance to win, weighed against how much of the pool survives alongside it when it does, with the outcomes of the most-picked teams played through rather than averaged. Win % is the de-vigged Pinnacle moneyline. Pick % is the share of survivor pools on that team (survivorgrid projected (2026-11-04)). Best week to use is a timing call only — it compares this week’s equity against the team’s best later spot, using posted lines through Week 10 and power ratings beyond that — so a team can be best used this week and still be one I’d avoid. The tags next to the team name are the actual call.
