Jimmy Boyd in 
NFL survivor pools are becoming more and more popular every season and we have a list of popular contests you can enter. While “Survivor” is the most commonly used name for this contest, several will refer to it as a Knockout, Elimination, or Suicide Pool.
The goal is pretty straightforward. In order to win the NFL survivor pool, you simply have to be the last person left standing by not making any losing picks.
How it Works:
Unlike fantasy leagues, where you often will look to cap your league at a certain number of players, the more people the better in a Survivor Pool.
Most of these pools will require an entry fee. How much is really up to you and the people you are playing with? I think a good starting point is $50.
The number of people and entry fee all need to be taken care of prior to the season starting.
Using the Week 1 schedule, all contestants will submit one team that they think will win. If the team you selected wins, you advance to Week 2.
If the team you pick loses, it’s game over (some suicide pool leagues do offer people the chance to buy back in if they lose prior to Week 5 or something).
The big catch is that you can only use each team once. For example, if you pick the Packers to win in Week 1, they are no longer an option the rest of the way.
You keep repeating the process until there is only one person left in the survivor pool. If by chance multiple people go all 18 weeks without losing, the pot is typically split between all remaining survivors. However, it’s pretty rare that it comes down to this.
Our guide to starting your own last man standing pool covers all the details.
General Game Theory & Strategy for Making Suicide Pool Picks
Basic Guidelines
- Use Vegas Point Spreads – It would be silly to not at least take a look at the NFL betting lines for the games. The books are straight up telling you who they think the better team is. You are going to last a lot longer in this thing picking teams who are -7 or more than trying to sneak by each week with a small favorite or underdog.
- Try to Avoid Road Teams – It’s not easy winning on the road in the NFL. In 2018 there were only 7 teams in the entire league that posted a winning record away from home.
- Be Careful of Division/Rivalry Games – Crazy things seem to happen in division/rivalry games. You see a lot of upsets in these matchups. Try to avoid these unless there’s a significant gap in talent.
- Check Injury Report/Suspensions – I think this is pretty straightforward. The big point I want to make is that it might not be a bad idea to wait until closer to the deadline to make your pick for the week. More and more injury information becomes available the closer we get to game time. Why not wait and use that info to your advantage?
- Don’t Just Focus on the Best Teams – Too many people get caught up in picking the best teams, while this could lead to some early success in your pool, it’s going to be difficult to maneuver your way through the second half of the season with a bunch of bad teams to pick from.
Pro Tips
- Advanced Scheduling – Don’t just look at things on a week-to-week basis. If you want to consistently be one of the last people left in your pool, you need to start looking at the schedule as a whole. Vegas sets early odds in the spring/summer for every game Week 1 – Week 18. Use these odds to see how many easy games (-7 or more) each team has. Teams with a lot of easy games are ones you want to save until later. Good teams with only a few elite spots to back, are ones you want to look to play early on. If you have the time, try to map out your picks for every week before the season starts.
- Pick Percentages – This is the contrarian approach to Survivor Pools. You want to use whatever resources you can (ESPN, Yahoo, etc..) to try and find out what the consensus picks are for that week and avoid these teams. The goal here is to take less obvious choices who are maybe playing against a bad team and hope that there are some big upsets. If 60% of the pool is on one team and that team loses, your chances of winning go up drastically.
You can also check out my NFL knockout strategies for more information on doing it yourself.
Best Free NFL Expert Last Man Standing Pool Picks
Each week, I’ll share my thoughts on some teams. I’ll tell you my favorite team to play, some others you might want to consider, and a few that I recommend avoiding.
Note that a lot of the logic used for survivor pool picks goes hand-in-hand with handicapping the point spreads.
Recap for Week 17
There weren’t many surprises last week, but the Colts (our “avoid” pick) were a big one with an estimated 37.7% of remaining players eliminated! The rest of the week played out about how everyone expected. Hopefully you were one of the few that saved some good teams for this late season push. This is a perfect example of why looking ahead and planning for the schedule makes sense. You don’t want to make it this far and find that your only option is a mid team like the Colts.
It’s the last week of the regular season – when most survivor pools come to an end. Let’s see what our best options are to try and lock up a victory.
For more great content this week check out my teaser of the week or the free expert NFL picks released by our team of handicappers.
