Jimmy Boyd in 
NFL survivor pools are becoming more and more popular every season and we have a list of popular contests you can enter. While “Survivor” is the most commonly used name for this contest, several will refer to it as a Knockout, Elimination, or Suicide Pool.
The goal is pretty straightforward. In order to win the NFL survivor pool, you simply have to be the last person left standing by not making any losing picks.
How it Works:
Unlike fantasy leagues, where you often will look to cap your league at a certain number of players, the more people the better in a Survivor Pool.
Most of these pools will require an entry fee. How much is really up to you and the people you are playing with? I think a good starting point is $50.
The number of people and entry fee all need to be taken care of prior to the season starting.
Using the Week 1 schedule, all contestants will submit one team that they think will win. If the team you selected wins, you advance to Week 2.
If the team you pick loses, it’s game over (some suicide pool leagues do offer people the chance to buy back in if they lose prior to Week 5 or something).
The big catch is that you can only use each team once. For example, if you pick the Packers to win in Week 1, they are no longer an option the rest of the way.
You keep repeating the process until there is only one person left in the survivor pool. If by chance multiple people go all 18 weeks without losing, the pot is typically split between all remaining survivors. However, it’s pretty rare that it comes down to this.
Our guide to starting your own last man standing pool covers all the details.
General Game Theory & Strategy for Making Suicide Pool Picks
Basic Guidelines
- Use Vegas Point Spreads – It would be silly to not at least take a look at the NFL betting lines for the games. The books are straight up telling you who they think the better team is. You are going to last a lot longer in this thing picking teams who are -7 or more than trying to sneak by each week with a small favorite or underdog.
- Try to Avoid Road Teams – It’s not easy winning on the road in the NFL. In 2018 there were only 7 teams in the entire league that posted a winning record away from home.
- Be Careful of Division/Rivalry Games – Crazy things seem to happen in division/rivalry games. You see a lot of upsets in these matchups. Try to avoid these unless there’s a significant gap in talent.
- Check Injury Report/Suspensions – I think this is pretty straightforward. The big point I want to make is that it might not be a bad idea to wait until closer to the deadline to make your pick for the week. More and more injury information becomes available the closer we get to game time. Why not wait and use that info to your advantage?
- Don’t Just Focus on the Best Teams – Too many people get caught up in picking the best teams, while this could lead to some early success in your pool, it’s going to be difficult to maneuver your way through the second half of the season with a bunch of bad teams to pick from.
Pro Tips
- Advanced Scheduling – Don’t just look at things on a week-to-week basis. If you want to consistently be one of the last people left in your pool, you need to start looking at the schedule as a whole. Vegas sets early odds in the spring/summer for every game Week 1 – Week 18. Use these odds to see how many easy games (-7 or more) each team has. Teams with a lot of easy games are ones you want to save until later. Good teams with only a few elite spots to back, are ones you want to look to play early on. If you have the time, try to map out your picks for every week before the season starts.
- Pick Percentages – This is the contrarian approach to Survivor Pools. You want to use whatever resources you can (ESPN, Yahoo, etc..) to try and find out what the consensus picks are for that week and avoid these teams. The goal here is to take less obvious choices who are maybe playing against a bad team and hope that there are some big upsets. If 60% of the pool is on one team and that team loses, your chances of winning go up drastically.
You can also check out my NFL knockout strategies for more information on doing it yourself.
Best Free NFL Expert Last Man Standing Pool Picks
Each week, I’ll share my thoughts on some teams. I’ll tell you my favorite team to play, some others you might want to consider, and a few that I recommend avoiding.
Note that a lot of the logic used for survivor pool picks goes hand-in-hand with handicapping the point spreads.
For more great content this week check out my teaser of the week or the free expert NFL picks released by our team of handicappers.
Our Best Survivor Picks & Contest Help: Week 2
Every favorite on the Week 2 board, rated by win probability from the sharpest moneylines on the market and by how much of the public is on them, with a call on whether to use the team now or save it. Lines as of Wednesday, September 16 at 8:00 AM CT.
Best available
Top value play
Avoid
Best Available
San Francisco 49ers -13.5 vs Miami Dolphins, Sunday
88%
San Francisco just hung 27 on LA while allowing 7, and Purdy threw for three scores on 25 of 34 passing in the opener. Miami comes in off a 27-13 loss at Las Vegas, with Malik Willis running the offense and their defense already banged up at linebacker and corner. The 49ers do have injuries of their own, Mykel Williams out for the year and two more on IR, but none of that touches the outcome here. This is favored by 13.5 with a win probability of 88%, and only 30% of the field has boarded this pick, so the equity gain if it hits matches the popular chalk without splitting the pot as many ways. Week 3 against Arizona projects to 74%, which isn’t clearly better than this. Use San Francisco now.
Baltimore Ravens -8.5 vs New Orleans Saints, Sunday
77%
Baltimore just dropped 41 on Indianapolis, with Lamar Jackson slicing for 324 yards and Derrick Henry punching in three scores on the ground. New Orleans is coming off an overtime loss to Detroit and dealing with Cameron Jordan and Alvin Kamara both questionable, and Zay Flowers’ hamstring for Baltimore doesn’t change a matchup this lopsided. The Ravens are favored by 8.5 with a win probability of 77%, and only 7% of pools have boarded them, so a cash here gains about the same ground as the popular chalk while splitting the pot far fewer ways. Week 4 against Tennessee projects to 79% if you want to hold, but I’d use Baltimore now and keep that later spot in your pocket.
Los Angeles Rams -7 vs New York Giants, Monday
74%
Los Angeles is 0-1 after a 27-7 no-show against San Francisco, Stafford managing just 155 yards while Myles Garrett is out for the season with a knee injury that guts the pass rush. New York is 1-0 off a 28-20 win over Dallas but plays on a short week, three fewer rest days than the Rams get. That edge has Los Angeles favored by 7, with a win probability of 74%. Only 2% of pools are on this side, so the case rests on ownership, since a Rams win moves the needle less than the top chalk plays. The save spot is Week 6 against Arizona at 78%, but use the Rams now.
Top Value Play
Los Angeles Chargers -6.5 vs Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday
72%
The Chargers dropped their opener 26-14 to Arizona, allowing 393 yards, and Justin Herbert threw for just 209 with Ladd McConkey banged up on a questionable tag with ribs. Las Vegas looks live at 1-0, but the Raiders just beat a Miami team that’s already scuffling, and the Chargers still price out as clear favorites at home in a division spot with a week to fix things. LA sits favored by 6.5 with a win probability of 72%, and only 3% of the field is on them. That gap between the number and the ownership is the case. A win here gains ground on the pool without splitting the pot the way the popular chalk does, and their better later look in Week 5 against Denver only projects to 55%, so there’s no reason to save this one. Use the Chargers now.
Teams to Avoid
Carolina Panthers -2.5 at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday
57%
Carolina’s coming off a 59-37 blowout loss to Chicago, giving up 560 yards and 59 points in the opener, and Bryce Young’s offense scored plenty without it mattering. Atlanta’s banged up too, with Tua and Penix both questionable, but the Panthers are road favorites in a division game the market has flagged as a coin flip. That’s the red flag here. This grades out with the lowest win probability, 57%, of any popular pick this week, and 3% of pools are still on it anyway. Save this one. Carolina’s Week 3 trip to Cleveland projects to 57%, about 12% more equity, which makes this week’s card the one to skip.
Green Bay Packers -3.5 at New York Jets, Sunday
61%
Green Bay just got hung with 39 points in Minnesota, and Jordan Love finished 21 of 42 with an interception while the offense leaked 258 yards a game to a Jets defense that just held Tennessee to 10. The Packers also list five players questionable, including Aaron Banks and Josh Whyle, while New York gets to play at home off a full week’s rest. Road favorites are already a red flag, and this one carries the lowest win probability, 61%, of any popular pick this week despite 4% of the field boarding it. Save Green Bay for Week 3 against Atlanta, where they project at 68% and carry 21% more equity than this spot offers.
Week 2 Survivor Board
| # | Favorite | Spread | Win % | Pick % | Best week to use |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers Best availablevs Miami Dolphins, Sunday | -13.5 | 88% | 30% | this week |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Buccaneersvs Cleveland Browns, Sunday | -8.5 | 77% | 29% | this week |
| 3 | Baltimore Ravens Best availablevs New Orleans Saints, Sunday | -8.5 | 77% | 7% | either week |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles (road)at Tennessee Titans, Sundayroad favorite | -7 | 74% | 13% | this week |
| 5 | Los Angeles Rams Best availablevs New York Giants, Monday | -7 | 74% | 2% | this week |
| 6 | Kansas City Chiefsvs Indianapolis Colts, Sunday | -6.5 | 72% | 2% | save for Week 3 |
| 7 | Los Angeles Chargers Value playvs Las Vegas Raiders, Sundaydivision game | -6.5 | 72% | 3% | this week |
| 8 | New England Patriotsvs Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday | -5.5 | 68% | 1% | either week |
| 9 | Chicago Bearsvs Minnesota Vikings, Sundaydivision game | -5.5 | 67% | 2% | save for Week 4 |
| 10 | Buffalo Billsvs Detroit Lions, Thursdayshort week | -4.5 | 67% | 2% | either week |
| 11 | Dallas Cowboysvs Washington Commanders, Sundaydivision game | -4 | 66% | 1% | this week |
| 12 | Seattle Seahawks (road)at Arizona Cardinals, Sundayroad favorite; division game | -4 | 64% | 2% | this week |
| 13 | Green Bay Packers (road) Avoidat New York Jets, Sundayroad favorite | -3.5 | 61% | 4% | save for Week 3 |
| 14 | Denver Broncosvs Jacksonville Jaguars, Sundaycoin flip | -2.5 | 59% | 0% | either week |
| 15 | Houston Texansvs Cincinnati Bengals, Sundaycoin flip | -2.5 | 57% | 0% | save for Week 5 |
| 16 | Carolina Panthers (road) Avoidat Atlanta Falcons, Sundayroad favorite; division game; coin flip | -2.5 | 57% | 3% | save for Week 3 |
Win % is the de-vigged Pinnacle moneyline. Pick % is the share of survivor pools on that team (survivorgrid projected (2026-09-16)). Best week to use is a timing call only — it compares this week’s equity against the team’s best later spot, using posted lines through Week 3 and power ratings beyond that — so a team can be best used this week and still be one I’d avoid. The tags next to the team name are the actual call.
