This page is all about providing you a detailed look at the odds to win the Super Bowl. As soon as the previous season is in the books, we turn our attention to the future lines for all 32 teams for the next year.
We do our best to keep you informed with the latest information. We will update this page throughout the preseason and each week of the regular season. We will provide checkpoints of previous updates as reference points.
Updated NFL Super Bowl LIV Lines: Who Vegas Expects to Win in 2021
I think it’s safe to say that Super Bowl 54 didn’t disappoint. The Kansas Chiefs pulled off yet another crazy rally, this time in the 4th quarter, to defeat the San Francisco 49ers 31-20.
As recent as that game was, we are already looking ahead to next year and the odds to Win Super Bowl 55.
I don’t think it’s any surprise that the oddsmakers have the Chiefs listed as the odds on favorite with KC coming in at +600. The Chiefs definitely have that feel of being one of the rare teams capable of defending their title.
With Mahomes entering only his 3rd year as a starter, their offensive core of skill-players back and a defense that will be in year two of a system that made a ridiculous turnaround, it’s hard bet against them.
With that said, the last time we had a repeat winner was the 2003-04 New England Patriots.
The Chiefs open at +600, which is only slightly better than the +800 we saw them at to start out last offseason. The biggest threats to KC according to the books are the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens. Both of which are sitting at +800.
Hard to argue with taking a shot on Baltimore, as they certainly looked like a Super Bowl caliber team most of the year and they too have a pretty special young QB. As for the 49ers, it makes sense given how young and talented they are, to see them near the top. However, history is not in their favor.
Teams who lose the Super Bowl have really struggled to meet expectations the following season. Many don’t even make the playoffs and if they do it’s usually as a Wild Card. The only exception to this being the Patriots, but they are the exception to any trend like this. It’s why I would not back SF to win it all.
Lurking just behind the top contenders you got the New Orleans Saints at +1000 and the Patriots at +1100. Both of these teams would be really tough to back, as we don’t know if Brady or Brees will be playing in the same uniform as last year.
Next up it’s the Packers at +1600, followed by the Cowboys at +1800, Steelers at +2200 and Seahawks/Rams/Bears and Falcons all at +2500.
Interesting to note that four of those teams (Cowboys, Steelers, Bears and Falcons) failed to make the playoffs. While I know there’s not going to be much value with the Cowboys, given how their odds are always inflated, I don’t hate them at +1800. I would also consider the Steelers at +2200. Pittsburgh’s got a defense and Big Ben will definitely make them better on offense. If he can stay healthy, he might just have one more big run in him.
The Eagles/Chargers are next in line at +2800, then it’s the Browns/Colts at +3300, Titans/Raiders at +3500, Bills at +4000 and the Bucs/Broncos/Jaguars at +5000. I would also throw the Bengals +5500 in this group.
There’s definitely some teams in this group that I could see being that team like the 49ers who take that next step. Cleveland could be that team with a new coaching staff. I also think a healthy Eagles team would be scary. The Colts if they can find someone a little better than Brissett. The Raiders if Brady comes to town.
I’m sure the Bengals will be a team of lot of others like as a value bet because of the likelihood that they draft LSU’s Joe Burrow No. 1 overall. I like Burrow, but I don’t like the pieces around him (at least right now).
The real long shots start with the Panthers/Giants at +6600, followed by the Lions at +7000, Jets at +7500 and Cardinals at +8000. That leaves the Dolphins at +12500 and the Redskins at +15000.
While there’s likely to a team or two out of this group that make the playoffs, it’s not the easiest thing to spot. Plus, there’s only been two teams with opening odds worse than 30 to 1 to win the Super Bowl since 2002. That being the 2002 Patriots (+6000) and the 2018 Eagles (+5000).
I’ll be back to update the odds throughout the offseason, especially after we see most of the free agents sign and then after the draft.
Odds to Win Super Bowl
|Team||Current Odds||Implied Probability|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+600||14.29%|
|San Francisco 49ers||+800||11.11%|
|New Orleans Saints||+1000||9.09%|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+1000||9.09%|
|New England Patriots||+2200||4.35%|
|Green Bay Packers||+2200||4.35%|
|Los Angeles Rams||+4000||2.44%|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+4000||2.44%|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+5000||1.96%|
|New York Jets||+8000||1.23%|
|New York Giants||+8000||1.23%|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+500|
|San Francisco 49ers||+900|
|New England Patriots||+1200|
|New Orleans Saints||+1200|
|Green Bay Packers||+1600|
|Los Angeles Rams||+2500|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+2500|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+5000|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+5000|
|New York Jets||+9000|
|New York Giants||+9000|
Odds to Win Each Conference
Odds to Win Each Division
|AFC East||NFC East|
|AFC North||NFC North|
|AFC South||NFC South|
|AFC West||NFC West|
Past Champions & Preseason Las Vegas Odds to Win
This page is one of the most popular on our site, and it’s no surprise when you see how much is bet on the big game each year. People love their favorite teams and the NFL in general. When the end of the season gets here they want one last grab for gambling action. Otherwise they will have to wait seven months for a new season to begin.
Once the teams are set we will have a list of game props for those of you who are interested. It doesn’t matter if you like to bet on them or are wanting to put a list together for any parties you might have. We will have you covered.
I like reviewing these odds and comparing them to the game spreads each week. Is there a reason a team is favored that has worse line to win it all? It might be the schedule, some injury, or just a public bias.
Before the season starts we like to find win totals that might be profitable. One way you can do this by comparing teams with similar championship odds. Sometimes you’ll find drastic differences in expected victories. There is more than one way to put a futures bet on a team you like.
Previous Super Bowl Results
|2020||Kansas City Chiefs||+800|
|2019||New England Patriots||+500|
|2017||New England Patriots||+600|
|2015||New England Patriots||+650|
|2012||New York Giants||+2200|
|2011||Green Bay Packers||+1100|
|2010||New Orleans Saints||+2000|
|2008||New York Giants||+3000|
|2005||New England Patriots||+600|
|2004||New England Patriots||+1500|
|2003||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+1200|
|2002||New England Patriots||+6000|
Over the previous 20 years the New England Patriots have pulled the biggest upset, that was back in 2002. It comes as no surprise that they were a 14 point underdog in the game, and were not even likely to win the AFC. That championship game was the infamous tuck rule game where Brady and company upset the Oakland Raiders.
You can also check out what the point spreads and totals were for each game on our Super Bowl line history page. We include score results and opponents to give you the complete picture.
The odds on next year’s Super Bowl are typically released the day after the current one is complete. We will keep an archived list so everyone can compare the current ones listed at the top of this page.
Some other key dates are right after the NFL draft, and if there are any coaching changes. The numbers will move during the season when the Vegas odds makers have had a chance to see the teams in action. We will also keep an archived version of the odds after some of these key dates.