This page is all about providing you a detailed look at the odds to win the Super Bowl. As soon as the previous season is in the books, we turn our attention to the future lines for all 32 teams for the next year.
We do our best to keep you informed with the latest information. We will update this page throughout the preseason and each week of the regular season. We will provide checkpoints of previous updates as reference points.
Updated NFL Super Bowl Lines: Who Vegas Expects to Win in 2019
While we are a long way from the start of a new season, now felt like a great time to check in on the odds to win Super Bowl 53. The 2018 NFL Draft is in the books and it’s at this point where we can really start to get a good idea of what each team is going to look like. That’s not to say, there won’t be some more signings and trades, most of the big moves are done.
We first took a look at the odds for each team the day after the Super Bowl (Feb. 5th). Those initial odds were based almost entirely on the accomplishments from the previous season, as well as a franchises reputation. We then checked in almost two months later (Mar. 26th) after all the big trades and free agent signings took place once the new year was officially underway.
You might be surprised just how little a teams’ odds changed based on the draft. The books simply aren’t going to adjust the odds that much. I don’t think there’s a better example of that than the New York Giants. They used the No. 2 overall pick on the consensus best player in Penn State running back Saquon Barkley. They then upgraded their offensive line in a big way with a second round section of UTEP guard Will Hernandez.
Most are going to see that as a major positive and assume it will make the Giants a much better team. Oddsmakers don’t see it that way. In fact, the Giants’ odds got worse, as they were +5000 back at the end of March and are now sitting at +7500. It’s a bit of a head scratcher, as I think a legit rushing attack could do wonders for Eli Manning and that offense.
No surprise that the Patriots have maintained their spot on top. New England is the odds on favorite at +500 and by quite a big margin. The Eagles, who won the Super Bowl last year, have the second best odds at +800. Next up is the Rams, who have been sky-rocketing up this list. Los Angeles opened at +1800. They were down to +1400 after their big offseason moves and are now sitting at +900, ahead of the Steelers (+1000), Vikings (+1200) and Packers (+1200).
I don’t think too many would disagree with the teams we have mentioned. However, I believe some will be questioning the 49ers being next on the list at +1500. There’s clearly some serious love for Jimmy Garoppolo and what he was able to do down the stretch last year, with 5 straight wins. I agree that San Francisco should be greatly improved, but this definitely feels like an overreaction.
The 49ers are ahead of the likes of the Saints (+2200), Texans (+2500), Falcons (+3000), Raiders (+3000), Seahawks (+3000), Broncos (+3000), Cowboys (+3000), Jaguars (+3500), Panthers (+3500), Chargers (+3500), Chiefs (+4000), Ravens (+4000), and Colts (+4000).
As far as value is concerned, there’s a lot of teams at 20 to 1 or worse that I really like. I think the obvious choices have to be the Saints, Texans and Falcons. I also think the Cowboys, Jaguars and Chiefs are all teams capable of winning it all. A lot of people forget how good Dallas was with Elliott for a full season. Jacksonville arguably has the best roster from top to bottom in the NFL and Kansas City just might have the most explosive offense in the league if Mahomes lives up all the hype.
Unfortunately we got a couple months here where not a lot happens. Training camp doesn’t get going until the middle of July. If something big is to happen between now and then, we will update the odds, so be sure to check back often.
Expert NFL Picks & Predictions to Win Super Bowl 53
Los Angeles Rams (+900) – A lot of people thought the Rams were going to better in the first season under new head coach Sean McVay. With that said, it really wasn’t going to take a lot for LA to improve. The Rams had gone just 4-12 the previous season, where they finished dead last in both total yards (262.7 ypg) and scoring (14.0 ppg).
LA didn’t just become more competitive, they sky-rocketed to the top tier of the NFC. The Rams went 11-5 and secured their first NFC West title since 2003. The offense went from the worst in the NFL to arguably the best. LA improved to 10th in total yards (361.5 ypg) and were 1st in scoring (29.9 ppg).
They did all of that with a second year QB in Jared Goff, who played in just 7 games during his rookie season in 2016. With Goff figuring to only get better in year-two of the new system installed by McVay, there’s no reason to think the Rams won’t be one of the higher scoring teams in the league again in 2018.
The Rams knew that for them to be a complete team and compete for a Super Bowl, the defense had to be better than it was. Needless to say, LA upgraded their stop unit for the upcoming season. The Rams added to of the top corners in the game in Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib. They also added one of the elite defenders in the game in defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who will play alongside maybe the other defensive tackle better than him in Aaron Donald.
I just think with all the pieces in place, the Rams are right there with the Eagles as the best teams on paper going into the 2018 season. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but I believe they are showing great value at +900 and as of right now are my pick to win it all.
More Value Plays
- Vikings (+1200)
- Texans (+2500)
- Falcons (+3000)
- Jaguars (+3500)
- Chiefs (+4000)
Odds to Win Super Bowl
|Team||Current Odds||Implied Probability|
Past Champions & Preseason Las Vegas Odds to Win
This page is one of the most popular on our site, and it’s no surprise when you see how much is bet on the big game each year. People love their favorite teams and the NFL in general. When the end of the season gets here they want one last grab for gambling action. Otherwise they will have to wait seven months for a new season to begin.
Once the teams are set we will have a list of game props for those of you who are interested. It doesn’t matter if you like to bet on them or are wanting to put a list together for any parties you might have. We will have you covered.
I like reviewing these odds and comparing them to the game spreads each week. Is there a reason a team is favored that has worse line to win it all? It might be the schedule, some injury, or just a public bias.
Before the season starts we like to find win totals that might be profitable. One way you can do this by comparing teams with similar championship odds. Sometimes you’ll find drastic differences in expected victories. There is more than one way to put a futures bet on a team you like.
Previous Super Bowl Results
|2017||New England Patriots||+600|
|2015||New England Patriots||+650|
|2012||New York Giants||+2200|
|2011||Green Bay Packers||+1100|
|2010||New Orleans Saints||+2000|
|2008||New York Giants||+3000|
|2005||New England Patriots||+600|
|2004||New England Patriots||+1500|
|2003||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+1200|
|2002||New England Patriots||+6000|
Over the previous 15 years the New England Patriots have pulled the biggest upset, that was back in 2002. It comes as no surprise that they were a 14 point underdog in the game, and were not even likely to win the AFC. That championship game was the infamous tuck rule game where Brady and company upset the Oakland Raiders.
You can also check out what the point spreads and totals were for each game on our Super Bowl line history page. We include score results and opponents to give you the complete picture.
The odds on next year’s Super Bowl are typically released the day after the current one is complete. We will keep an archived list so everyone can compare the current ones listed at the top of this page.
Some other key dates are right after the NFL draft, and if there are any coaching changes. The numbers will move during the season when the Vegas odds makers have had a chance to see the teams in action. We will also keep an archived version of the odds after some of these key dates.