Super Bowl Odds

This page is all about providing you with a detailed look at the Super Bowl betting odds for this year’s NFL championship. As soon as the previous season is in the books, we turn our attention to the future lines for all 32 teams for the next year.

We do our best to keep you informed with the latest information. We will update this page throughout the preseason and each week of the regular season. We will provide checkpoints of previous updates as reference points.

What Are the Latest Odds for the Super Bowl?

TeamOddsImplied Probability
Kansas City+55015.38%
San Francisco+60014.29%
Green Bay+19005.0%
New York Jets+20004.76%
Los Angeles Chargers+30003.23%
Los Angeles+35002.78%
Tampa Bay+75001.32%
New Orleans+80001.23%
Las Vegas+100000.99%
New York Giants+100000.99%
New England+150000.66%

Updated NFL Super Bowl LVIV Betting Lines: Vegas Favorites to Win

The Super Bowl odds are based on the probability that a team has of winning the NFL championship.

For example, odds of +400 mean that you would win $400 for every $100 you bet on that team to win the Super Bowl, but it also means that the team has a 20% chance of winning.

You can calculate that by taking the risk divided by the profit + risk. In this example, it’s 100 / (100 + 400) = .2.

It’s important to note that the sum of the probability of all teams listed will always be over 100%. The percentage over 100% is the sports book’s hold/vig, so while our implied probability is technically correct, the true probability would be the implied probability divided by the hold.

How to Read the Current Super Bowl Betting Odds & Lines

Super Bowl betting odds can be displayed in three different formats.  We’ll look at each one below.

  • American odds are going to be what you see most of the time if you reside in the United States. The odds are represented with positive numbers if the probability is less than 50% and negative numbers if it’s over 50%.  Unless there are very few teams left in the playoffs most teams will have a plus sign (+) in front of them.  This number is how much you would profit off of a bet of $100.  You don’t have to bet in increments of $100, but the formula would remain the same as your wager amount varies.  For example, if the odds are +500 then a $20 bet would profit you $100.
  • Decimal odds are more popular in the rest of the world and are used a lot in Europe.  The number is expressed as a decimal representing the amount you would win for every $1 wagered, but it includes the risked amount.  For example, if a team has odds of 1.50, that means you would win $0.50 for every $1 you bet on that team to win the Super Bowl.
  • Fractional odds are the oldest type of odds and are still used quite a bit. They are expressed as a fraction, with the numerator representing the amount of money you would win and the denominator representing the amount of money you would need to bet. For example, if a team has odds of 4/1, that means you would win $4 for every $1 you bet on that team to win the Super Bowl.

Where Can You Bet on Who Will Win the Super Bowl?

It used to be that your only options in the United States to bet on the NFL were in Las Vegas or through a local bookie, but times have changed.  Here is a list of your best options for getting your action down on futures or when the big game finally arrives.

US Bettors: Licensed and Regulated Sportsbooks with NFL Super Bowl Betting

More and more states are legalizing sports gambling, and with that the ability to bet on who will win the Super Bowl.  There really isn’t a more trustworthy place to place your wagers since it’s licensed and regulated by the government and the companies are very large.

Some are private but a lot are publicly traded.  Basically, you can trust that they aren’t going anywhere and you’ll get paid when you win.

Our favorite betting site in the United States is Circa.  They have the most options, the higher limits, and they don’t kick out winning players.  But they are in the fewest states so some other quality options you should take a look at are: BetMGM, DraftKings, FanDuel, and Ceasers.

Here is a list of states that have legalized sports wagering.  It’s constantly changing so if your state isn’t on the list it’s possible they passed the law since we have published this article.

  • Arizona
  • Arkansas
  • Colorado
  • DC
  • Delaware
  • Illinois
  • Indiana
  • Iowa
  • Louisiana
  • Maryland
  • Michigan
  • Mississippi
  • Montana
  • New Hampshire
  • New Jersey
  • New Mexico
  • Nevada
  • New York
  • Ohio
  • Pennsylvania
  • Rhode Island
  • South Dakota
  • Tennessee
  • Virginia
  • Washington
  • West Virginia
  • Wyoming

Best Online Sportsbooks Not in the United States

Of course, not everyone who bets on the Super Bowl lives in America, even if the NFL is the most popular sport here.  For those of you in states without legalized betting or in other parts of the world, offshore sportsbooks can be an option.  You just have to check the legality in your jurisdiction because that’s beyond our specialty and outside the scope of this article.

Bookmaker, Pinnacle, and BetOnline are three of our favorites.  They set the vig lower on futures than most other places, post the lines early, take large bets, and don’t limit sharp players.  They really are a great option once you get serious about putting a decent amount of money down with your sports betting.

Finding Local Bookies or Pay Per Head Sites to Bet On

The last option is one of the oldest in the game, local bookies.  Betting on local books is definitely in a gray area within the law so again you are going to want to check on the legality in your jurisdiction.  Locals are the worst option for NFL futures.  On the positive side, you can bet on credit so your money isn’t tied up for months, but the downside is if you hit a long shot there is no guarantee you are getting paid.

Most of the locals don’t have big bankrolls so a big score by a player can put them under.  Plus, there is no guarantee they are going to be around by the end of a long season.  I really do think this should be your last resort.

Strategies for Making Winning Predictions to Beat the Super Bowl Odds

Once you understand how Super Bowl odds work, you can use them to make predictions about which team will win the Super Bowl. There are a number of factors that you can consider when making your predictions, such as the team’s recent performance, its roster, and its schedule. You can also look at the odds of other teams to get an idea of which teams are considered to be the favorites.

Using Sharp Books to Make Smarter Bets on the Current Super Bowl Betting Odds

Super Bowl odds are a helpful tool for predicting which team will win the Super Bowl.  What you can do is shop around.

We’ve talked a little bit about which books allow sharp bets already.  Places like Circa, Pinnacle, and Bookmaker will take bets from smart bettors and then move their numbers based on that action.  That means their lines should be sharper than the recreational books.

If you are willing to do the work of eliminating the hold from the futures and getting a true probability number, there are times that you can find odds that would be profitable at books that don’t take sharp action and do not move their lines as frequently.

Using the Super Bowl Betting Lines for NFL Game Odds

I also think this could be a good tool for getting an edge with individual games.  If you are comparing two teams’ Super Bowl odds then you know the books think one team is better than another.  You can add this to your arsenal to make sure you have an edge on the sides you want to bet on.

I like using the NFL season win totals early in the season to establish my priors for modeling.  You can get a good idea in these early games which teams the betting markets are high on and which ones they are low on.  Sometimes the public’s opinion is strong enough that there will be value in the teams with better win total numbers early in the season.

Are the Super Bowl Futures on the Defending Champs Worth It?

One thing that you’ll find is playing the extra games in the playoffs seems to take a toll on the players’ bodies.  You don’t see very many repeat champions, and there is a curse of the loser too.  The team that gets beat in the Super Bowl oftentimes has a tough time even making it back to the playoffs the following year.

I hate blind systems like this, but you have to adjust your numbers on the teams that played the previous year.  There’s also the fact that every fan and general manager sees these players have what it takes to get their teams to the promised land so will want to overpay them in free agency.

A quarterback who makes it?  They are going to get paid big bucks and eat into the salary cap.

In a nutshell, it’s best to avoid repeat champions when looking for value.

Teams with the Most Super Bowl Wins in History

We have a page detailing who has won the most NFL championships but we also think that if you are going to predict who has what it takes to win all you need to know is who the franchises, coaches, and players are that have shown they can get the job done.

Here is a list of the teams that have taken home four or more championships, along with the last time they hoisted the trophy.

TeamWinsLast Win
Pittsburgh Steelers62008
New England Patriots62018
Dallas Cowboys51995
San Francisco 49ers51994
Green Bay Packers42010
New York Giants42011

Recent Super Bowl Champions and Their Odds to Win

Below you’ll find the Super Bowl history of the odds that the champions had at different points in the season.  You can see that it’s normally one of the Super Bowl contenders that ends up pulling it out.  There are not a lot of longshots that all of a sudden go from the basement to the penthouse in the NFL.

YearTeamPreseasonWeek 8Start of Playoffs
2023Kansas City Chiefs+600+400+1000
2022Kansas City Chiefs+1000+600+325
2021LA Rams+1200+800+1100
2020Tampa Bay Bucs+1000+700+1200
2019Kansas City Chiefs+600+1200+400
2018New England Patriots+600+600+600
2017Philadelphia Eagles+4000+700+1500
2016New England Patriots+600+200+140
2015Denver Broncos+900+1000+500
2014New England Patriots+650+1000+250
2013Seattle Seahawks+800+450+250
2012Baltimore Ravens+1800+1400+2000
2011New York Giants+2200+2800+2200
2010Green Bay Packers+1100+1100+1200

The biggest surprise on the list was the Eagles in 2017, but what’s funny is by the mid-point of the season they had already established themselves as a serious contender.  You are going to have to go back to 2011 before you find a team deeper on the list after Week 8 that came out of nowhere to win it all.

Similar to when you look at the odds before the playoffs start.  At that point, there is a huge advantage to having the home field, a bye week, and you know which teams are good and which aren’t.  That isn’t to say a team can’t catch lightning in a bottle, but riding the favorites seems to be a profitable move.

Teams That Have Yet to Win a Super Bowl

There are twelve teams that have never won the Super Bowl.  Some are hard to believe while others won’t leave you too surprised.

Here is the complete list:

  • Arizona Cardinals
  • Atlanta Falcons
  • Buffalo Bills
  • Carolina Panthers
  • Cincinnati Bengals
  • Cleveland Browns
  • Detroit Lions
  • Houston Texans
  • Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Los Angeles Chargers
  • Minnesota Vikings
  • Tennessee Titans

The Cardinals have made one appearance, losing in 2008 to the Pittsburgh Steelers behind Kurt Warner.  Atlanta has lost two Super Bowls, the heartbreaking loss in 2016 to the New England Patriots and back in 1998 to the Denver Broncos.

The Bills might be the most disappointing team on the list.  Those early ’90s teams lost four straight Super Bowls when they had Thurman Thomas at RB, Jim Kelly under center, and Andre Reed as the main receiving threat.  It’s hard to believe they never got the job done.

Panthers fans have had two setbacks in the Super Bowl, the first was with Jake Delhomme under center when they gave Brady and the Patriots a fight in 2003, then when they went 15-1 in 2015 and had a real shot at beating the Denver Broncos with Cam Newton at QB.

There hasn’t been a lot of success in Cincinnati with the Bengals being 0-3 in the championship game.  Most recently Joe Burrow took them in 2021 but lost to the Rams.

The Chargers made it to the Super Bowl back in 1994 but got beat up pretty well by the 49ers.

Vikings fans have lost six conference championships and four Super Bowl games in their history.  That’s almost as disappointing as the Bills run.

The Titans made one appearance but came up a yard short of Kurt Warner and the Rams back in 1999.

The Browns, Lions, Texans, and Jaguars have never been to the Super Bowl.

Other NFL Futures Odds Worth Looking At:

Other Futures Odds: