The best free picks delivered to your email every single day!
One of the most popular types of wagers when it comes to NFL futures are win totals. The 2023 season is fast approaching and the sports book have started to release their over/unders for each team. You can use this information in a variety of ways, even if you don’t want to make an actual bet on any of them.
The projections are a pretty good tool to see how each division is expected to play out and how closely bunched together the teams are supposed to be. You can also use this information when looking at the point spreads of head-to-head matchups.
There is a lot of shading that goes into these numbers. The juice can really get raised for the over or the under on a team. I’ve kept it simple below and just displayed the win total, but a team might be listed at 6.5 with a 55% chance of going over and 45% chance of going under, but the whole numbers are the closest to a 50/50 proposition I could find.
2023 NFL Over/Under Vegas Win Total Numbers For All 32 Teams
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills10½
New York Jets9½
Miami Dolphins9½
New England Patriots6½
AFC WEST
Kansas City Chiefs11½
Los Angeles Chargers9½
Denver Broncos8½
Las Vegas Raiders6½
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens10½
Cincinnati Bengals10½
Cleveland Browns9½
Pittsburgh Steelers8½
AFC SOUTH
Jacksonville Jaguars9½
Tennessee Titans7½
Indianapolis Colts6½
Houston Texans6½
NFC EAST
Philadelphia Eagles11½
Dallas Cowboys10½
New York Giants7½
Wash. Commanders6½
NFC WEST
San Francisco 49ers10½
Seattle Seahawks9½
Los Angeles Rams6½
Arizona Cardinals4½
NFC NORTH
Detroit Lions9½
Minnesota Vikings8½
Green Bay Packers7½
Chicago Bears7½
NFC SOUTH
New Orleans Saints9½
Atlanta Falcons8½
Carolina Panthers7½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6½
Expected Wins vs 2022 Actual Wins
We can use these numbers to see how much each team is expected to improve or regress in 2023. The column titled “+/- Expected” is the difference between each team’s wins last season and how many they are projected to have this year.
Team
Last Season
2023 Projection
+/- Expected
Arizona Cardinals
4
4.5
0.5
Atlanta Falcons
7
8.5
1.5
Baltimore Ravens
10
10.5
-0.5
Buffalo Bills
13
10.5
-2.5
Carolina Panthers
7
7.5
0.5
Chicago Bears
3
7.5
4.5
Cincinnati Bengals
12
10.5
1.5
Cleveland Browns
7
9.5
2.5
Dallas Cowboys
12
10.5
-1.5
Denver Broncos
5
8.5
3.5
Detroit Lions
9
9.5
0.5
Green Bay Packers
8
7.5
-0.5
Houston Texans
3
6.5
3.5
Indianapolis Colts
4
6.5
2.5
Jacksonville Jaguars
9
9.5
0.5
Kansas City Chiefs
14
11.5
-2.5
Las Vegas Raiders
6
6.5
0.5
Los Angeles Chargers
10
9.5
-0.5
Los Angeles Rams
5
6.5
1.5
Miami Dolphins
9
9.5
0.5
Minnesota Vikings
13
8.5
-4.5
New England Patriots
8
6.5
-1.5
New Orleans Saints
7
9.5
2.5
New York Giants
9
7,5
-1.5
New York Jets
7
9.5
2.5
Philadelphia Eagles
14
11.5
-2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers
9
8.5
-0.5
San Francisco 49ers
13
10.5
-2.5
Seattle Seahawks
9
9.5
0.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8
6.5
-1.5
Tennessee Titans
7
7.5
0.5
Washington Commanders
8
6.5
-1.5
NFL Projection Averages & Over/Under Results
Below you will find the average projected wins and actual wins for every team since 1990. This shows which teams have over or under performed against expectations throughout the last several years of their franchise. Stats for each team name for the current season are for that franchise. For example, the Los Angeles Rams includes data from when the team was the St. Louis Rams. The seasons included in the totals can be different for many reasons. Most commonly, you’ll see teams like the Panthers, Jags, and Texans, who were expansion teams. In other cases, there may not have been a win total posted for a team in a particular season. This could be because of uncertainty around key players with injuries or other factors.
Oddsmakers can be off on teams season to season, no doubt about it. With that being said, they have been incredibly accurate looking over the last 30+ years. The average NFL team wins just under 8 games per season and the average win total posted is just over 8. On average, teams under-shoot their win total by about half a win (-0.60 wins).
Since 1990 we can see that the Rams have been the most overrated preseason team in the league, missing their win total by 1.36 wins on average. Meanwhile, the Steelers have been the team that most consistently exceeds expectations, winning 0.86 more games than their posted win total on average.
Team
Seasons
Avg Win Total
Avg Wins
Avg Difference
Arizona Cardinals
33
7.1
6.6
-0.50
Atlanta Falcons
33
7.3
7.6
+0.32
Baltimore Ravens
26
9.0
9.0
+0.04
Buffalo Bills
33
8.0
8.3
+0.32
Carolina Panthers
27
7.2
7.6
+0.33
Chicago Bears
33
8.1
7.5
-0.58
Cincinnati Bengals
33
7.5
6.9
-0.59
Cleveland Browns
30
6.7
5.8
-1.07
Dallas Cowboys
33
8.3
8.8
+0.58
Denver Broncos
33
8.9
9.0
+0.09
Detroit Lions
33
7.0
6.3
-0.70
Green Bay Packers
33
9.4
9.9
+0.45
Houston Texans
21
7.5
6.8
-0.68
Indianapolis Colts
33
8.7
8.3
-0.37
Jacksonville Jaguars
27
7.2
6.5
-0.72
Kansas City Chiefs
33
8.5
9.3
+0.79
Las Vegas Raiders
33
8.0
7.0
-0.95
Los Angeles Chargers
33
7.8
7.9
+0.03
Los Angeles Rams
33
8.2
6.9
-1.36
Miami Dolphins
33
8.1
8.2
+0.11
Minnesota Vikings
33
8.4
8.7
+0.35
New England Patriots
33
9.2
9.9
+0.71
New Orleans Saints
33
8.4
8.7
+0.33
New York Giants
33
8.5
8.0
-0.52
New York Jets
33
7.2
6.7
-0.44
Philadelphia Eagles
33
9.2
9.2
-0.06
Pittsburgh Steelers
33
9.2
10.0
+0.86
San Francisco 49ers
33
9.2
9.1
-0.11
Seattle Seahawks
33
8.4
8.4
0.00
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
33
7.6
7.0
-0.64
Tennessee Titans
33
8.1
8.3
+0.24
Washington Commanders
33
7.9
7.1
-0.85
Archived NFL Win Total Results
The tables that follow detail the projections and actual results for every NFL team by season. Each table shows the number of expected wins versus the actual wins earned and the difference, plus their win total result.
If you are interested in doing some betting on these NFL win totals then I want to make sure you understand how to read the odds so you can place accurate bets.
It’s pretty simple really. You are predicting whether an NFL team will win more or fewer games than the number set by the sports books.
For instance, if the New England Patriots win total is set at 6.5, you have to decide if they are going to win 7+ games and take the over, or 6 or fewer games to take the under.
When betting at the sports book there will be another number next to the 6.5. The over might have -140 and the under +100. The -140 means that you have to bet $140 for every $100 that you want to win, while the +100 means that you will win $100 for every $100 that you risk.
Why Do Books Love Setting Win Totals Using 1/2 Wins?
You might notice above that all of the totals are set on a half number. Why do sports books love doing this? Well it’s because they want action, not ties. Imagine holding your money all season long just to void the bet and give it back to you. Instead they want a winner and a loser. This way there is going to be action no matter what.
What Happens With Ties?
One rule that you need to check because it’s different between the sports books is what happens in the case of a tie. Sure, it’s rare that both teams end the game with the same score but it can and will happen. You just need to know how your book treats tie games so you aren’t disappointed later on.
NFL Win Total Betting Strategy
Research the Teams: This kind of goes without saying but you are going to have to look passed last year’s win/loss record. You need to study the off-season changes, who came in via the draft, free agency, trades, etc.. Was there a coaching change? What is the team’s strength of schedule? Did the team have a lot of close wins or losses last year where you might say they got lucky?
Know the Public Sentiment: The sports books opening odds are the opinions of the oddsmaker, but once bets start rolling in they adjust the numbers based off of the action. If everyone and their brother thinks a team getting an aged star player is going to push them over the top, but you see a guy on the decline then going the opposite way of the square bettors might be a way to pick up an edge.
Shop Around: There isn’t one uniform market for win totals. Most sports books are going to have some unique numbers. You can use this for straight arbitrage where you take the over at one place and the other at another and can’t lose, or you can just make sure you get the best possible odds on each one of your bets. This is a good strategy no matter what you are gambling on, not just for season long win totals.
I think win totals are great for the casual bettor. You get a long time frame to enjoy your bet, getting entertainment over the majority of the season. If you don’t really have an edge, this means your bankroll lasts longer and you get more bang for your buck.