nfl-win-totals

CG Technology recently released the 2016 win totals for all 32 NFL teams.  We can use them as the expected wins for the season.

Using the numbers provided we have listed how each division is projected to play out if all teams hit their numbers.  These numbers are also impacted by the public’s perception of each team.

They do not necessarily represent the number of victories the sportsbooks think the teams will win.  The totals are often adjusted based on the amount of betting action received.

2016 NFL Over Unders

AFC EAST

New England Patriots10½
Buffalo Bills8
New York Jets8
Miami Dolphins7

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos9½
Kansas City Chiefs9
Oakland Raiders7½
San Diego Chargers7

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers10½
Cincinnati Bengals9½
Baltimore Ravens7½
Cleveland Browns4½

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts8½
Houston Texans8
Jacksonville Jaguars6
Tennessee Titans5½

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys9
New York Giants7½
Philadelphia Eagles7½
Washington Redskins7½

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks10½
Arizona Cardinals9½
Los Angeles Rams7
San Francisco 49ers5

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers10½
Minnesota Vikings9
Detroit Lions7
Chicago Bears6½

NFC SOUTH

Carolina Panthers10½
Atlanta Falcons7
New Orleans Saints7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6½

2016 Expected Wins vs 2015 Actual Wins

We can use these numbers to see how much each team is expected to improve or regress in 2016.  The column titled “+/- Expected” is the difference between each team’s wins last season and how many they are projected to have this year.

TeamLast Season2016 Projection+/- Expected
Arizona Cardinals139.5-3.5
Atlanta Falcons87-1
Baltimore Ravens57.52.5
Buffalo Bills880
Carolina Panthers1510.5-4.5
Chicago Bears66.50.5
Cincinnati Bengals129.5-2.5
Cleveland Browns34.51.5
Dallas Cowboys495
Denver Broncos129.5-2.5
Detroit Lions770
Green Bay Packers1010.50.5
Houston Texans98-1
Indianapolis Colts88.50.5
Jacksonville Jaguars561
Kansas City Chiefs119-2
Miami Dolphins671
Minnesota Vikings119-2
New England Patriots1210.5-1.5
New Orleans Saints770
New York Giants67.51.5
New York Jets108-2
Oakland Raiders77.50.5
Philadelphia Eagles77.50.5
Pittsburgh Steelers1010.50.5
San Diego Chargers473
San Francisco 49ers550
Seattle Seahawks1010.50.5
St Louis Rams770
Tampa Bay Buccaneers66.50.5
Tennessee Titans35.52.5
Washington Redskins97.5-1.5

NFL Projection Averages & Over/Under Results

Below you will find the average projected wins and actual wins for every team since 2011.  We have also compiled their average performance versus expectation (Average +/- Actual), as well as the number of overs, under, and pushes they have had in that time frame.

Over the last five years we see that the Bengals and Cardinals tend to be underrated each season, while the Bucs, Jags, and Browns tend to under-perform despite having low projected wins every season.

TeamAverage ProjectedAverage ActualAverage +/- ActualOversUndersPushes
Arizona Cardinals5.97.81.9410
Atlanta Falcons7.76.8-0.8131
Baltimore Ravens7.87.5-0.3221
Buffalo Bills5.85.80.0230
Carolina Panthers6.07.81.8320
Chicago Bears6.96.2-0.8140
Cincinnati Bengals6.68.72.1500
Cleveland Browns5.33.8-1.4140
Dallas Cowboys7.36.7-0.6140
Denver Broncos7.99.71.8500
Detroit Lions7.06.5-0.5230
Green Bay Packers9.39.30.1230
Houston Texans7.67.0-0.6410
Indianapolis Colts7.37.2-0.1320
Jacksonville Jaguars4.63.2-1.4050
Kansas City Chiefs6.66.70.1320
Miami Dolphins6.65.8-0.8023
Minnesota Vikings5.76.00.3320
New England Patriots9.310.20.9411
New Orleans Saints7.87.5-0.3230
New York Giants7.36.2-1.1041
New York Jets6.66.0-0.6230
Oakland Raiders4.94.3-0.6230
Philadelphia Eagles7.86.5-1.3230
Pittsburgh Steelers7.88.20.4320
San Diego Chargers7.36.2-1.1230
San Francisco 49ers7.78.20.5320
Seattle Seahawks7.78.81.2410
St Louis Rams5.94.8-1.1140
Tampa Bay Buccaneers5.83.8-1.9131
Tennessee Titans5.44.5-0.9230
Washington Redskins5.75.2-0.5230

Archive

The tables that follow detail the projections and actual results for every NFL team by season.  Each table shows the number of expected wins versus the actual wins earned and the difference, plus their win total result.

2015

TeamProjectedActual Wins+/- WinsResult
Arizona Cardinals8.5134.5Over
Atlanta Falcons8.58-0.5Under
Baltimore Ravens95-4Under
Buffalo Bills8.58-0.5Under
Carolina Panthers8.5156.5Over
Chicago Bears6.56-0.5Under
Cincinnati Bengals8.5123.5Over
Cleveland Browns6.53-3.5Under
Dallas Cowboys9.54-5.5Under
Denver Broncos10122Over
Detroit Lions8.57-1.5Under
Green Bay Packers1110-1Under
Houston Texans8.590.5Over
Indianapolis Colts10.58-2.5Under
Jacksonville Jaguars5.55-0.5Under
Kansas City Chiefs8.5112.5Over
Miami Dolphins96-3Under
Minnesota Vikings8113Over
New England Patriots10.5121.5Over
New Orleans Saints8.57-1.5Under
New York Giants86-2Under
New York Jets7.5102.5Over
Oakland Raiders5.571.5Over
Philadelphia Eagles107-3Under
Pittsburgh Steelers8.5101.5Over
San Diego Chargers84-4Under
San Francisco 49ers6.55-1.5Under
Seattle Seahawks1110-1Under
St Louis Rams7.57-0.5Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers660Push
Tennessee Titans5.53-2.5Under
Washington Redskins693Over

2014

TeamProjectedActual Wins+/- WinsResult
Arizona Cardinals7.5113.5Over
Atlanta Falcons8.56-2.5Under
Baltimore Ravens8.5101.5Over
Buffalo Bills6.592.5Over
Carolina Panthers87-1Under
Chicago Bears8.55-3.5Under
Cincinnati Bengals9101Over
Cleveland Browns6.570.5Over
Dallas Cowboys8124Over
Denver Broncos11.5120.5Over
Detroit Lions8.5112.5Over
Green Bay Packers10.5121.5Over
Houston Texans7.591.5Over
Indianapolis Colts9.5111.5Over
Jacksonville Jaguars53-2Under
Kansas City Chiefs891Over
Miami Dolphins880Push
Minnesota Vikings671Over
New England Patriots10.5121.5Over
New Orleans Saints107-3Under
New York Giants86-2Under
New York Jets74-3Under
Oakland Raiders53-2Under
Philadelphia Eagles9101Over
Pittsburgh Steelers8.5112.5Over
San Diego Chargers891Over
San Francisco 49ers10.58-2.5Under
Seattle Seahawks11121Over
St Louis Rams76-1Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers72-5Under
Tennessee Titans72-5Under
Washington Redskins7.54-3.5Under

2013

TeamProjectedActual Wins+/- WinsResult
Arizona Cardinals5.5104.5Over
Atlanta Falcons104-6Under
Baltimore Ravens8.58-0.5Under
Buffalo Bills6.56-0.5Under
Carolina Panthers7.5124.5Over
Chicago Bears8.58-0.5Under
Cincinnati Bengals8.5112.5Over
Cleveland Browns6.54-2.5Under
Dallas Cowboys8.58-0.5Under
Denver Broncos11.5131.5Over
Detroit Lions87-1Under
Green Bay Packers10.58-2.5Under
Houston Texans10.52-8.5Under
Indianapolis Colts8.5112.5Over
Jacksonville Jaguars54-1Under
Kansas City Chiefs7.5113.5Over
Miami Dolphins880Push
Minnesota Vikings75-2Under
New England Patriots11121Over
New Orleans Saints9112Over
New York Giants97-2Under
New York Jets6.581.5Over
Oakland Raiders5.54-1.5Under
Philadelphia Eagles7.5102.5Over
Pittsburgh Steelers98-1Under
San Diego Chargers7.591.5Over
San Francisco 49ers11.5120.5Over
Seattle Seahawks10.5132.5Over
St Louis Rams7.57-0.5Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers7.54-3.5Under
Tennessee Titans6.570.5Over
Washington Redskins83-5Under

2012

TeamProjectedActual Wins+/- WinsResult
Arizona Cardinals75-2Under
Atlanta Falcons9134Over
Baltimore Ravens10100Push
Buffalo Bills86-2Under
Carolina Panthers7.57-0.5Under
Chicago Bears9.5100.5Over
Cincinnati Bengals8102Over
Cleveland Browns5.55-0.5Under
Dallas Cowboys8.58-0.5Under
Denver Broncos8.5134.5Over
Detroit Lions94-5Under
Green Bay Packers1211-1Under
Houston Texans10122Over
Indianapolis Colts5.5115.5Over
Jacksonville Jaguars5.52-3.5Under
Kansas City Chiefs82-6Under
Miami Dolphins770Push
Minnesota Vikings6104Over
New England Patriots12120Push
New Orleans Saints9.57-2.5Under
New York Giants990Push
New York Jets8.56-2.5Under
Oakland Raiders74-3Under
Philadelphia Eagles104-6Under
Pittsburgh Steelers108-2Under
San Diego Chargers97-2Under
San Francisco 49ers10111Over
Seattle Seahawks7.5113.5Over
St Louis Rams671Over
Tampa Bay Buccaneers671Over
Tennessee Titans76-1Under
Washington Redskins6.5103.5Over

2011

TeamProjectedActual Wins+/- WinsResult
Arizona Cardinals781Over
Atlanta Falcons10100Push
Baltimore Ravens10.5121.5Over
Buffalo Bills5.560.5Over
Carolina Panthers4.561.5Over
Chicago Bears8.58-0.5Under
Cincinnati Bengals5.593.5Over
Cleveland Browns6.54-2.5Under
Dallas Cowboys98-1Under
Denver Broncos682Over
Detroit Lions8102Over
Green Bay Packers11.5153.5Over
Houston Texans9101Over
Indianapolis Colts9.52-7.5Under
Jacksonville Jaguars6.55-1.5Under
Kansas City Chiefs7.57-0.5Under
Miami Dolphins7.56-1.5Under
Minnesota Vikings73-4Under
New England Patriots11.5131.5Over
New Orleans Saints10133Over
New York Giants9.59-0.5Under
New York Jets108-2Under
Oakland Raiders6.581.5Over
Philadelphia Eagles10.58-2.5Under
Pittsburgh Steelers10.5121.5Over
San Diego Chargers118-3Under
San Francisco 49ers7.5135.5Over
Seattle Seahawks671Over
St Louis Rams7.52-5.5Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers84-4Under
Tennessee Titans6.592.5Over
Washington Redskins65-1Under