CG Technology recently released the 2017 win totals for all 32 NFL teams.  We can use them as the expected wins for the season.

Using the numbers provided we have listed how each division is projected to play out if all teams hit their numbers.  These numbers are also impacted by the public’s perception of each team.

They do not necessarily represent the number of victories the sportsbooks think the teams will win.  The totals are often adjusted based on the amount of betting action received.

2017 NFL Over/Under Vegas Win Total Numbers For All 32 Teams

AFC EAST

New England Patriots11½
Miami Dolphins7½
Buffalo Bills6
New York Jets5½

AFC WEST

Oakland Raiders9½
Kansas City Chiefs9
Denver Broncos8½
Los Angeles Chargers7½

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers10½
Baltimore Ravens9½
Cincinnati Bengals8½
Cleveland Browns4½

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts9
Tennessee Titans9
Houston Texans8½
Jacksonville Jaguars6

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys9½
New York Giants9
Philadelphia Eagles8½
Washington Redskins7½

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks10½
Arizona Cardinals7½
Los Angeles Rams5½
San Francisco 49ers4½

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers10
Minnesota Vikings8½
Detroit Lions8
Chicago Bears5

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons10
Carolina Panthers9
New Orleans Saints8½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers8

Expected Wins vs 2016 Actual Wins

We can use these numbers to see how much each team is expected to improve or regress in 2016.  The column titled “+/- Expected” is the difference between each team’s wins last season and how many they are projected to have this year.

TeamLast Season2017 Projection+/- Expected
Arizona Cardinals77.50.5
Atlanta Falcons1110-1
Baltimore Ravens89.51.5
Buffalo Bills76-1
Carolina Panthers693
Chicago Bears352
Cincinnati Bengals68.52.5
Cleveland Browns14.53.5
Dallas Cowboys139.5-3.5
Denver Broncos98.5-0.5
Detroit Lions98-1
Green Bay Packers10100
Houston Texans98.5-0.5
Indianapolis Colts891
Jacksonville Jaguars363
Kansas City Chiefs129-3
Los Angeles Chargers57.52.5
Los Angeles Rams45.51.5
Miami Dolphins107.5-2.5
Minnesota Vikings88.50.5
New England Patriots1411.5-2.5
New Orleans Saints78.51.5
New York Giants119-2
New York Jets55.50.5
Oakland Raiders129.5-2.5
Philadelphia Eagles78.51.5
Pittsburgh Steelers1110.5-0.5
San Francisco 49ers24.52.5
Seattle Seahawks1010.50.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers98-1
Tennessee Titans990
Washington Redskins87.5-0.5

NFL Projection Averages & Over/Under Results

Below you will find the average projected wins and actual wins for every team since 2011.  We have also compiled their average performance versus expectation (Average +/- Actual), as well as the number of overs, under, and pushes they have had in that time frame.

Over the last five years we see that the Bengals and Cardinals tend to be underrated each season, while the Bucs, Jags, and Browns tend to under-perform despite having low projected wins every season.

TeamAverage ProjectedAverage ActualAverage +/- WinsOversUndersPushes
Arizona Cardinals7.59.01.5420
Atlanta Falcons8.88.7-0.2231
Baltimore Ravens9.08.8-0.2321
Buffalo Bills7.27.0-0.2240
Carolina Panthers7.88.81.1330
Chicago Bears8.06.7-1.3150
Cincinnati Bengals8.29.71.5510
Cleveland Browns6.04.0-2.0150
Dallas Cowboys8.88.80.1240
Denver Broncos9.511.21.7510
Detroit Lions8.28.0-0.2330
Green Bay Packers11.011.00.0240
Houston Texans8.98.5-0.4510
Indianapolis Colts8.78.5-0.2330
Jacksonville Jaguars5.63.7-1.9060
Kansas City Chiefs8.18.70.6420
Los Angeles Chargers8.47.0-1.4240
Los Angeles Rams7.15.5-1.6150
Miami Dolphins7.87.5-0.3123
Minnesota Vikings7.27.30.2330
New England Patriots11.012.51.5501
New Orleans Saints9.08.7-0.3231
New York Giants8.58.0-0.5141
New York Jets7.96.8-1.1240
Oakland Raiders6.26.30.2330
Philadelphia Eagles9.17.7-1.4240
Pittsburgh Steelers9.510.00.5420
San Francisco 49ers8.58.50.0330
Seattle Seahawks9.410.51.1420
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.85.3-1.5231
Tennessee Titans6.36.0-0.3330
Washington Redskins6.96.5-0.4330

Archived NFL Win Total Results

The tables that follow detail the projections and actual results for every NFL team by season.  Each table shows the number of expected wins versus the actual wins earned and the difference, plus their win total result.

TeamProjectedActual Wins+/- WinsResult
Arizona Cardinals9.57-2.5Under
Atlanta Falcons7114Over
Baltimore Ravens7.580.5Over
Buffalo Bills87-1Under
Carolina Panthers10.56-4.5Under
Chicago Bears6.53-3.5Under
Cincinnati Bengals9.56-3.5Under
Cleveland Browns4.51-3.5Under
Dallas Cowboys9134Over
Denver Broncos9.59-0.5Under
Detroit Lions792Over
Green Bay Packers10.510-0.5Under
Houston Texans891Over
Indianapolis Colts8.58-0.5Under
Jacksonville Jaguars63-3Under
Kansas City Chiefs9123Over
Miami Dolphins7103Over
Minnesota Vikings98-1Under
New England Patriots10.5143.5Over
New Orleans Saints770Push
New York Giants7.5113.5Over
New York Jets85-3Under
Oakland Raiders7.5124.5Over
Philadelphia Eagles7.57-0.5Under
Pittsburgh Steelers10.5110.5Over
San Diego Chargers75-2Under
San Francisco 49ers52-3Under
Seattle Seahawks10.510-0.5Under
Los Angeles Rams74-3Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6.592.5Over
Tennessee Titans5.593.5Over
Washington Redskins7.580.5Over
TeamProjectedActual Wins+/- WinsResult
Arizona Cardinals8.5134.5Over
Atlanta Falcons8.58-0.5Under
Baltimore Ravens95-4Under
Buffalo Bills8.58-0.5Under
Carolina Panthers8.5156.5Over
Chicago Bears6.56-0.5Under
Cincinnati Bengals8.5123.5Over
Cleveland Browns6.53-3.5Under
Dallas Cowboys9.54-5.5Under
Denver Broncos10122Over
Detroit Lions8.57-1.5Under
Green Bay Packers1110-1Under
Houston Texans8.590.5Over
Indianapolis Colts10.58-2.5Under
Jacksonville Jaguars5.55-0.5Under
Kansas City Chiefs8.5112.5Over
Miami Dolphins96-3Under
Minnesota Vikings8113Over
New England Patriots10.5121.5Over
New Orleans Saints8.57-1.5Under
New York Giants86-2Under
New York Jets7.5102.5Over
Oakland Raiders5.571.5Over
Philadelphia Eagles107-3Under
Pittsburgh Steelers8.5101.5Over
San Diego Chargers84-4Under
San Francisco 49ers6.55-1.5Under
Seattle Seahawks1110-1Under
St Louis Rams7.57-0.5Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers660Push
Tennessee Titans5.53-2.5Under
Washington Redskins693Over
TeamProjectedActual Wins+/- WinsResult
Arizona Cardinals7.5113.5Over
Atlanta Falcons8.56-2.5Under
Baltimore Ravens8.5101.5Over
Buffalo Bills6.592.5Over
Carolina Panthers87-1Under
Chicago Bears8.55-3.5Under
Cincinnati Bengals9101Over
Cleveland Browns6.570.5Over
Dallas Cowboys8124Over
Denver Broncos11.5120.5Over
Detroit Lions8.5112.5Over
Green Bay Packers10.5121.5Over
Houston Texans7.591.5Over
Indianapolis Colts9.5111.5Over
Jacksonville Jaguars53-2Under
Kansas City Chiefs891Over
Miami Dolphins880Push
Minnesota Vikings671Over
New England Patriots10.5121.5Over
New Orleans Saints107-3Under
New York Giants86-2Under
New York Jets74-3Under
Oakland Raiders53-2Under
Philadelphia Eagles9101Over
Pittsburgh Steelers8.5112.5Over
San Diego Chargers891Over
San Francisco 49ers10.58-2.5Under
Seattle Seahawks11121Over
St Louis Rams76-1Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers72-5Under
Tennessee Titans72-5Under
Washington Redskins7.54-3.5Under
TeamProjectedActual Wins+/- WinsResult
Arizona Cardinals5.5104.5Over
Atlanta Falcons104-6Under
Baltimore Ravens8.58-0.5Under
Buffalo Bills6.56-0.5Under
Carolina Panthers7.5124.5Over
Chicago Bears8.58-0.5Under
Cincinnati Bengals8.5112.5Over
Cleveland Browns6.54-2.5Under
Dallas Cowboys8.58-0.5Under
Denver Broncos11.5131.5Over
Detroit Lions87-1Under
Green Bay Packers10.58-2.5Under
Houston Texans10.52-8.5Under
Indianapolis Colts8.5112.5Over
Jacksonville Jaguars54-1Under
Kansas City Chiefs7.5113.5Over
Miami Dolphins880Push
Minnesota Vikings75-2Under
New England Patriots11121Over
New Orleans Saints9112Over
New York Giants97-2Under
New York Jets6.581.5Over
Oakland Raiders5.54-1.5Under
Philadelphia Eagles7.5102.5Over
Pittsburgh Steelers98-1Under
San Diego Chargers7.591.5Over
San Francisco 49ers11.5120.5Over
Seattle Seahawks10.5132.5Over
St Louis Rams7.57-0.5Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers7.54-3.5Under
Tennessee Titans6.570.5Over
Washington Redskins83-5Under
TeamProjectedActual Wins+/- WinsResult
Arizona Cardinals75-2Under
Atlanta Falcons9134Over
Baltimore Ravens10100Push
Buffalo Bills86-2Under
Carolina Panthers7.57-0.5Under
Chicago Bears9.5100.5Over
Cincinnati Bengals8102Over
Cleveland Browns5.55-0.5Under
Dallas Cowboys8.58-0.5Under
Denver Broncos8.5134.5Over
Detroit Lions94-5Under
Green Bay Packers1211-1Under
Houston Texans10122Over
Indianapolis Colts5.5115.5Over
Jacksonville Jaguars5.52-3.5Under
Kansas City Chiefs82-6Under
Miami Dolphins770Push
Minnesota Vikings6104Over
New England Patriots12120Push
New Orleans Saints9.57-2.5Under
New York Giants990Push
New York Jets8.56-2.5Under
Oakland Raiders74-3Under
Philadelphia Eagles104-6Under
Pittsburgh Steelers108-2Under
San Diego Chargers97-2Under
San Francisco 49ers10111Over
Seattle Seahawks7.5113.5Over
St Louis Rams671Over
Tampa Bay Buccaneers671Over
Tennessee Titans76-1Under
Washington Redskins6.5103.5Over
TeamProjectedActual Wins+/- WinsResult
Arizona Cardinals781Over
Atlanta Falcons10100Push
Baltimore Ravens10.5121.5Over
Buffalo Bills5.560.5Over
Carolina Panthers4.561.5Over
Chicago Bears8.58-0.5Under
Cincinnati Bengals5.593.5Over
Cleveland Browns6.54-2.5Under
Dallas Cowboys98-1Under
Denver Broncos682Over
Detroit Lions8102Over
Green Bay Packers11.5153.5Over
Houston Texans9101Over
Indianapolis Colts9.52-7.5Under
Jacksonville Jaguars6.55-1.5Under
Kansas City Chiefs7.57-0.5Under
Miami Dolphins7.56-1.5Under
Minnesota Vikings73-4Under
New England Patriots11.5131.5Over
New Orleans Saints10133Over
New York Giants9.59-0.5Under
New York Jets108-2Under
Oakland Raiders6.581.5Over
Philadelphia Eagles10.58-2.5Under
Pittsburgh Steelers10.5121.5Over
San Diego Chargers118-3Under
San Francisco 49ers7.5135.5Over
Seattle Seahawks671Over
St Louis Rams7.52-5.5Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers84-4Under
Tennessee Titans6.592.5Over
Washington Redskins65-1Under