Jimmy Boyd in 
The 151st running of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled for Saturday, May 3rd at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. We are just a few days away from the big race.
Coverage will begin at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC, with post time scheduled for 6:57 p.m. ET.
For everything you need to know about betting this race, check out my Kentucky Derby Betting Guide. I’ll also have my win/place/show picks posted shortly in my Kentucky Derby Predictions article.
Look at the Vegas Odds to Win the 2025 Kentucky Derby
Before we get into the odds, let’s talk about how this race has been trending. The betting favorite has won 18 of the last 55 Derbies, a win rate of about 32%. However, prior to 2013, the win rate was just 26.1%. While the favorite has failed to win the last six years, favorites had a strong run from 2013 to 2018, winning six straight.
This shift coincided with a major change in how horses qualify for the Derby. Previously, the top 20 earners in graded stakes races made the field. But starting in 2013, Churchill Downs implemented a points-based system to better reflect a horse’s performance in key prep races.
The new system has mostly succeeded in identifying the best horses for the 1¼-mile distance. Prior to this change, horses that specialized in shorter sprint races often made the Derby, setting unsustainable early fractions and spoiling the chances of true distance contenders.
2025 Top Contenders
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Journalism | 3-1 |
| Sovereignty | 5-1 |
| Sandman | 6-1 |
| Luxor Café | 15-1 |
| Burnham Square | 12-1 |
| Grande | 19-1 |
| Final Gambit | 17-1 |
| Citizen Bull | 17-1 |
| American Promise | 13-1 |
| Render Judgment | 13-1 |
According to the oddsmakers, Journalism is the horse to beat. The Santa Anita Derby winner enters with the highest speed figures in the field and has won three in a row heading into the Derby. He’s well-drawn, in top form, and has a tactical running style that suits Churchill Downs.
Close behind is Sovereignty at 5-1, a strong closer who ran well in the Florida Derby. Sandman, the Arkansas Derby winner, also has late kick and could benefit from a hot pace.
Luxor Café might be the most interesting long shot. The Japanese-bred colt has dominated overseas and brings serious pedigree and momentum into his U.S. debut.
Rest of the Field
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Neoequos | 57-1 |
| Admire Daytona | 39-1 |
| Flying Mohawk | 36-1 |
| East Avenue | 33-1 |
| Publisher | 30-1 |
| Tiztastic | 20-1 |
| Coal Battle | 30-1 |
| Chunk of Gold | 33-1 |
| Owen Almighty | 44-1 |
| Baeza | 50-1 |
There’s plenty of value to be found outside the top tier as well. A few of these long shots have shown flashes of potential and could shake up exotic wagers like exactas, trifectas, and superfectas if things break right.
More Derby Articles
