Brandon Lee Free Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

8* NFL - Public Money ATS MASSACRE: Indianapolis Colts -3.5

I will lay the 3.5 with the Colts at home against the Titans in Week 4. While the Colts are coming off a 20-17 upset win over the Chiefs last week as a 4.5-point dog, no one is really giving this team any credit for that victory. All the talk is about how Kansas City gave that game away. 

No question the Colts caught some breaks in that game, but that's the kind of win that can turn things around for a team. The biggest thing that has held the Indy offense back the last two games is they haven't been able to get the running game going. Just keep in mind the Jags lead the NFL in run defense, giving up just 55.0 ypg on the ground and KC is 9th, allowing just 86.7 ypg. 

The Titans are 29th in the league, giving up 145 ypg and dead last in the NFL, allowing 5.8 yards/carry. This should be a breakout game for Colts' running back Jonathan Taylor and with Tennessee having to focus all their attention on him, it should also mean a big day for Matt Ryan and the passing game. 

On the flip side of this, we know the Titans are a team that wants to establish the run with Derrick Henry. Thing is, Henry hasn't looked himself in 2022 and Indy comes into this game allowing a league low 2.6 yards/carry vs the run. 

I look for the Colts to dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and win this game going away. Give me the Colts -3.5! 

8* NFL  Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR: Denver Broncos +2.5

I'm going to take the Broncos as a 2.5-point road dog against the Raiders on Sunday. This is being labeled a "must-win" for the Raiders after their 0-3 start. I'm not saying it isn't but the idea that Las Vegas has to win has the public quick to back the Raiders at home laying less than a field goal. I also think there's a lot of negativity towards Denver right now because their offense isn't performing like people expected. 

I believe the Broncos are the right side in this matchup and I wouldn't be surprised if they won this game going away. Denver's offense is not as bad as people are making it out to be. They should have 30+ points in their opener against the Seahawks and would have had they not fumbled twice on the 1-yard line when going in for a TD. Sure they looked bad last week against the 49ers, but San Francisco has one of the best defenses in the league. 

The Raiders are not a good defensive team. Las Vegas is giving up 25.7 ppg, 376 ypg and 5.8 yards/play vs teams that are averaging just 19.0 ppg, 337 ypg and 5.3 yards/play. This is a defense that Russell Wilson and that Denver offense should be able to exploit. 

On the flip side of this, I really like what I've seen out of this Denver defense. The Broncos have a great pass rush and one of the better secondaries in the NFL. They have allowed 177, 154 and 179 passing yards in their first 3 games. Raiders have not been able to run the ball, averaging just 80 ypg on the ground, which means they will be trying to attack the strength of this Broncos defense. Give me Denver +2.5! 

Sunday's NFL Free Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers PK

I will take my chances with the Bucs as a Pick'em at home against the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. I'm a little surprised Tampa Bay isn't getting more love in this matchup. I know it's been a bit of a struggle early on for Tom Brady and the Bucs offense, but a lot of that has had to do with guys not being on the field. Even more than that, is the schedule. Tampa Bay has played 3 really good defenses to start the year in the Cowboys, Saints and Packers. 

While Kansas City's defense is much improved over a year ago, it's still just a middle of the pack unit. The secondary was exposed by Justin Herbert and the Chargers in Week 2, as he did as he pleased in that game. I think we see Tom Brady finally get on track this week. 

As for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense, it looked like they were going to be even better than they had been with Tyreek Hill after torching the Arizona on the road in Week 1. Thing is, this offense has went right back to looking like the offense we saw for most of the second half of last season in their last two games. The running game is hit or miss and really struggles to pick up the 1-2 yards needed on 3rd and short. The offensive line is also not protecting Mahomes well at all. 

I think Mahomes and that offense are going to have a really tough time against a very talented Tampa Bay defense, who has 10 sacks thru their first 3 games. Tampa Bay bounces back after the loss last week to Green Bay and improves to 3-1 on the year. Give me the Bucs PK! 

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10* NFL - ATS Blowout PLAY OF THE MONTH: Buffalo Bills -3

I will gladly lay the 3-points on the road with the Bills against the Ravens on Sunday. Going into last week's game against the Dolphins, everyone was talking about how good this Buffalo team is and how they got a legit shot to run the table. They end up losing 19-21 on the road to Miami and now it's like everyone isn't so sure about this team. I also think there's a lot of people falling in love with this Ravens team because of how good Lamar Jackson has been. 

I know a loss is a loss, but if you watched that game last week, Buffalo should have won that game by double-digits. The Bills outgained the Dolphins 497 to 212, had 31 first downs to Miami's 15 and ran 90 plays to the Dolphins 39. This is still the elite Bills team that we saw dominate the Rams on the road in Week 1 and destroy the Titans at home in Week 2. 

As for the Ravens, Jackson has been incredible to start this season and will likely continue to put up big numbers. The thing is, he's got no choice with how bad this Ravens' defense is. Baltimore was fortunate to only give up 9 points to the Jets in Week 1, as NY had 378 total yards in that game. Ravens then allowed 42 and over 500 yards to the Dolphins at home in Week 2 and last week let Mac Jones and a struggling Patriots offense go up and down the field on them. 

Thru 3 games the Ravens have the worst pass defense in the NFL and it's not even close. Baltimore is giving up 353.3 ypg. The next worst is the Dolphins, who are giving up 299.3 ypg. Josh Allen and the Bills offense are going to score at will and while they might not be able to shutdown Jackson, Buffalo's defense is going to get more than enough stops to easily cover this spread. Give me the Bills -3! 

10* NFL - Bookie Slaughter PLAY OF THE MONTH: Pittsburgh Steelers -3

I love the Steelers as a mere 3-point home favorite against the Jets in Week 4. This to me is the perfect buy-low spot on Pittsburgh. The Steelers are just 1-2 to start the year and because their offense has struggled to get anything going, no one really wants anything to do with this team. 

I believe it's created some big time value with the Steelers laying only a field goal at home against a bad Jets team. New York should be 3-0, but had that crazy comeback in Week 2 at Cleveland. With 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter, the Jets have trailed 24-3, 30-17 and 27-9. They have 4 TDs thru 3 games in the final 2 minutes of regulation, which has made them appear a little more competent than they are. 

You might be saying, they should be a lot better with Zach Wilson expected to make his first start of the season. I'm not buying it. Wilson is going to be rusty and is facing a very good Steelers defense that knows how to disguise their coverages. I also think people are quick to ignore how well Joe Flacco was playing. Flacco was averaging over 300 yards passing per game. 

I'm not saying the Steelers offensive problems are going to be fixed, but this is by far the least talented defense they have faced so far this season. Not to mention the defense should help them out with plenty of 3 and outs and short fields off turnovers. This line to me is a good 3-points lower than it should be. Give me the Steelers -3! 

9* NFL Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER: Seahawks/Lions OVER 47.5

I'm going to take the OVER 47.5 in Sunday's game between the Lions and Seahawks. I cashed in on the OVER 42 in last week's game between the Seahawks and Falcons. We got there with relative ease, as the two had 43 points with time to spare in the 3rd quarter. They ended up combining for 50 points without a single point scored in the 4th quarter. Seattle finished that game averaging 6.1 yards/play and the Falcons averaged 7.1 yards/play. 

I like the OVER in this game for a lot of the same reasons. The biggest of those being the Seattle defense and just how bad it is. The Seahawks' defense ranks 29th in the NFL, giving up 6.3 yards/play on the season. That's with them playing two really bad offenses in the Broncos and 49ers and a very average Falcons offense. This to me is the worst defense in the NFL right now. 

So while Detroit will be without their star wide out Amon-Ra St. Brown and top running back D'Andre Swift, I see them having no problem moving the ball up and down the field. Especially with the big edge up front with the Lions top tier offensive line facing off a very bad front for Seattle. 

I also mentioned last week how I thought the Seahawks offense was being undervalued going into their game with the Falcons due to the fact that they had played two of the better defensive teams in the league in the Broncos and 49ers. They did end up with just 23 points, but as I mentioned they averaged 6.1 yards/play. They ended the game with 420 total yards and were over 50% on 3rd down. The only reason they didn't score more is they were just 2/5 in the redzone. 

I don't see them having any problem moving the ball against a bad Lions defense. Detroit has given up 38 to the Eagles, 27 to the Commanders and 28 to the Vikings in 3 games. They are allowing 142 ypg and 5.0 yards/carry on the ground and giving up 408 ypg and 6.0 yards/play. This should have no problem getting to 50 points. Give me the OVER 47.5!