Brandon Lee Free Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

10* FREE NFL PICK (OVER 51)

I'll take my chances with the OVER 51 between the Rams and Broncos. I want to start off by saying, I’m well aware of the fact that it’s expected to be below-freezing with a chance of snow. Everyone overreacts when they see snow in the forecast and just assume it’s going to lead to a low-scoring game. I would much rather play in snow than rain, plus it’s the games with the strong winds that really impact the scoring. In fact, a lot of times, snow on the field really makes things tough for the defense, as they have to try and react to the offensive player.

The other thing here is that we can expect the Rams offense to be near full strength, as wide outs Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks are both expected to clear concussion protocol by Sunday. When this offense has all it’s weapons, it’s one of the best in the league. Not only are they averaging 34.6 ppg, but they haven’t scored fewer than 33 in any single contest.

Denver is perceived to be this great defensive team, but that’s just not the case with this team. The Broncos are T-23rd in scoring defense (26.2 ppg) and are 26th in total defense (395.8 ypg). I get it was a letdown spot, but they just gave up 512 total yards to the Jets and 34 points to a NY team that hadn’t scored more than 17 in each of their previous 3 games.

Hard to get to 50+ points without both teams scoring and I’m confident Denver’s offense being able to contribute enough to push this OVER the mark. While the Broncos are just 27th in scoring at 20.0 ppg, they are 12th in the NFL in total offense at 393.8 ypg. I think playing at home against what figures to be a fatigued Rams defense that is still without one of their best players in corner Aqib Talib, will definitely help the Broncos offense get going.

I also think the last few weeks we have seen the true colors of this LA defense and how they can be exploited. Twice this season the Rams have allowed an opposing quarterback to throw for 300 yards and twice they have allowed teams to run for at least 140 yards. Denver has the 3rd ranked rushing attack, which I think is huge, as it will allow Case Keenum and that offense to play in front of the chains. Look for Denver to take some shots on 2nd and short and pick up some big plays via play action.

OVER is 10-2 in the Rams last 12 off a division game and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 off a win against a division rival. OVER is also 25-9 in the Broncos last 34 games against a team that is averaging 29+ ppg. Take the OVER!

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40* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS SNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 59.5)

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 59.5 on Sunday Night Football. I know this is a ridiculously high total, but with the talent these two teams have at quarterback and at the skill positions and the defenses they will be up against, I think both have a legit shot at eclipsing 30-points.

There will be plenty who point out Mahomes coming back to reality after throwing his first two interceptions of the season and failing to throw a TD pass. Was it his best game? No. The kid still threw for 313 yards on 22 of 38 passing against what most considered the best defense in the league. One that a lot of other more accomplished quarterbacks have struggled against.

KC didn’t just have 300+ yards passing on the best defense in the league, they also rushed for 126 yards. I think the Chiefs are going to continue doing exactly what they have been doing, and that’s move the football up and down the field on the Patriots. New England’s defense just doesn’t impress me. They let Blake Bortles throw for 377 yards and last week Andrew Luck had 355 yards playing with a bunch of scrubs.

As for the Chiefs defense, they were fortunate to only hold the Jaguars to 14 points, as Jacksonville moved the ball at will with 502 yards and 29 first downs. Bortles simply made a bunch of costly mistakes and the offense turned it over 5 times. KC isn’t going to get those breaks against a quarterback the likes of Tom Brady. Last week the Patriots got back one of his top targets in Julian Edelman and I think this could be the game where Josh Gordon really starts to take off in that offense.

I see big plays happening at every turn and this being one of the most entertaining games of the season to date. OVER is 9-2 in Andy Reid’s last 11 games as the coach of the Chiefs when KC is a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 19-9 in the Patriots last 28 under Belichick at home with a total at 49.5 or more. Give me the OVER 59.5!

40* NFL PUBLIC MONEY LINE SLAUGHTER (Bengals -119) 

I'll take my chances here with the Bengals on the money line. I just feel there’s a ton of value with a home team.

The reason we are getting such great value is the Steelers are a big time public play and the public will quick to back them off that 24-point win against the Falcons. Plus, the Bengals just aren’t a team that public is drawn to, no matter what their record is.

I want to point out that I absolutely loved the Steelers at home last week against Atlanta (was my strongest play). I just loved the spot for Pittsburgh, playing at home off that ugly home loss to the Ravens. Not to mention they were catching an Atlanta team that has been decimated with injuries on the defensive side of the ball and were coming off that devastating loss at home to the Bengals.

It’s also worth pointing out that while the final score was lopsided, the Steelers only had a 381 to 324 edge in total yards and both teams ended the game with 22 first downs. I just don’t trust this team on the road. It’s no secret that Big Ben isn’t the same quarterback on the road as he is at home. The Steelers are still without one of the best backs in the league in LeVeon Bell and there just seems to be a ton of drama both inside and outside the locke room. This week it’s Antonio Brown making headlines for two lawsuits filed against him.

I know the numbers aren’t great for the Bengals defense, but I like the young talent they got on that side of the ball and let’s not overlook they played the first 4 without one of the top linebackers in the league in Vontaze Burfict. They also seem to keep making the big play when it matters the most. Not to mention the energy they will get in front of what should be an electric home crowd.

This also isn’t just another game for these two teams. There’s quite the rivalry between the two and I have to think this is one contest the Bengals have been itching to play. Cincinnati has lost each of the last 6 meetings. They know that in order to win the AFC North, they have to take care of business against this team and I just think for the first time in a few years, they are the more talented team on the field. Give me the Bengals! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Ravens -2.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the Ravens laying less than a field goal on the road. The Titans come into this game with a winning record at 3-2, but they could just as easily be 0-5. All 3 of their wins have come by just 3-points. I just don't see them being able to keep winning games the way they have. Sure, the defense has been playing lights out, but this is one of the worst offenses in the league. Tennessee is 29th in the NFL in total offense, averaging just 294 ypg.