Jimmy Boyd in 
When Week 1 of the NFL season arrives bettors are looking for any edge that they can find. One possible angle is to look at if there is a Super Bowl Hangover. How do the winners and losers of last season’s championship games fare in their first game of the year?
So much attention is given to the two teams that are playing in the Super Bowl. You might not watch every playoff game, but chances are you will be glued to your seat for the final game of the year.
Win or lose, the two teams that just played in the last game of the season are going to be covered in great detail by the media. They are going to be among the favorites in the Super Bowl betting odds. We often put such a bias on what happened the previous year, these teams are overrated in the eye of the public the next season.
Regardless of what happened in the offseason. The team that won it all the previous year is considered the team to beat. While the loser is considered to be on the rise. Both are often picked to win their division and many times play for the title again the next year.
Today I wanted to share with you how both the winner and loser of the previous title game did in Week 1. I’ve put together detailed results for both below in separate tables. Definitely something you want to consider when handicapping the NFL games in Week 1 that involve last year’s Super Bowl participants.
How the Defending Super Bowl Champion Performs in Week 1 of the NFL
You might be surprised to see how well the defending champions have performed in Week 1 of the NFL regular season. Knowing what we know with our Week 1 NFL Betting Systems, we would expect these teams to not be good bets. Going back to 2000, last year’s SB winner has gone 14-9-1 ATS. That’s 60.8% winners!
However, after the Kansas City Chiefs lost to the Detroit Lions at home in 2023, the defending champs have now failed to cover the last three seasons. A trend that has seemed to develop though is that the under is 4-1-1 over the last six seasons.
You are going to want to dig into the numbers and make yourself a line before blindly following these trends, but it might be worth a small adjustment if you think there is an advantage one way or another.
| Season | SB Champ | Wk 1 Opp | Line (Total) | Total | SU Result | ATS | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Chiefs | Lions | -6 | 53 | 20-21 | L | Under |
| 2022 | Rams | Bills | 2.5 | 52 | 10-31 | L | Under |
| 2021 | Bucs | Cowboys | -9 | 52.5 | 31-29 | L | Over |
| 2020 | Chiefs | Texans | -10 | 54 | 34-20 | W | Push |
| 2019 | Patriots | Steelers | -6 | 52 | 33-3 | W | Under |
| 2018 | Eagles | Falcons | -4 | 46.5 | 18-12 | W | Under |
| 2017 | Patriots | Chiefs | -8 | 48.5 | 27-42 | L | Over |
| 2016 | Broncos | Panthers | +3 | 41 | 21-20 | W | Push |
| 2015 | Patriots | Steelers | -6.5 | 51 | 28-21 | W | Over |
| 2014 | Seahawks | Packers | -5.5 | 47 | 36-16 | W | Over |
| 2013 | Ravens | @ Broncos | +8 | 49 | 27-49 | L | Over |
| 2012 | Giants | Cowboys | -3.5 | 45 | 17-24 | L | Under |
| 2011 | Packers | Saints | -4.5 | 48 | 42-34 | W | Over |
| 2010 | Saints | Vikings | -5.5 | 48.5 | 14-9 | Push | Under |
| 2009 | Steelers | Titans | -6 | 35.5 | 13-10 | L | Under |
| 2008 | Giants | Redskins | -4 | 41 | 16-7 | W | Under |
| 2007 | Colts | Saints | -6 | 52 | 41-10 | W | Under |
| 2006 | Steelers | Dolphins | -1.5 | 34.5 | 28-17 | W | Over |
| 2005 | Patriots | Raiders | -7.5 | 49.5 | 30-20 | W | Over |
| 2004 | Patriots | Colts | -3.5 | 45 | 27-24 | L | Over |
| 2003 | Buccaneers | @ Eagles | +3 | 36 | 17-0 | W | Under |
| 2002 | Patriots | Steelers | +2.5 | 37.5 | 30-14 | W | Over |
| 2001 | Ravens | Bears | -10 | 33.5 | 17-6 | W | Under |
| 2000 | Rams | Broncos | -8.5 | 48.5 | 41-36 | L | Over |
Super Bowl Losers in Week 1 of the Following Season
We have uncovered some nice value with taking the SB Champion in Week 1, but that’s nothing compared to what we find betting against the team that lost the previous Super Bowl.
The teams who lost in the previous title game, have gone a miserable 4-19 ATS since 2000. I know it’s a small sample size, but that’s a 17.4% win rate against the spread. You won’t find many systems as strong as this one.
Keep in mind that’s with a win for the SB loser in 2018, as the Patriots squeaked out a 27-20 win at home as a 6.5-point favorite. New England is responsible for 2 of the 3 wins (the rest of the league is 1-15). If you haven’t learned by now, it’s probably wise to just pass on a system if it’s suggesting a play against the Patriots.
Why do these teams perform so poorly? A lot of it has to do with the majority of these teams opening up on the road. Not to mention they are dealing with an inflated line.
It’s all part of a major misconception the public has of these teams who lose in the big game. They assume they are going to be more hungry to get back the next year. Outside of the Bills in the 90’s, that’s just not the case. People overlook the negative emotional impact it has on a team to be so close to the ultimate goal.
A few years ago the Atlanta Falcons came up short in a 6-point win at Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite. The year prior to that, Cam Newton and the Panthers were coming off a 15-1 mark in the regular season and cruised all the way up to their crushing loss to the Broncos in the last game of the year. The following season, they were picked by many to win their division and get back to the big game. Carolina finished dead last in the NFC South at 6-10.
| Season | SB Loser | Wk 1 Opp | Line | Total | SU Result | ATS | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Eagles | @ Patriots | -4 | 45 | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| 2022 | Bengals | Steelers | -7 | 44.5 | 20-23 | L | Under |
| 2021 | Chiefs | Browns | -5.5 | 54.5 | 33-29 | L | Over |
| 2020 | 49ers | Cardinals | -7 | 48 | 20-24 | L | Under |
| 2019 | Rams | @ Panthers | -3 | 51 | 30-27 | W | Over |
| 2018 | Patriots | Texans | -6.5 | 51 | 27-20 | W | Under |
| 2017 | Falcons | @ Bears | -6.5 | 48.5 | 23-17 | L | Under |
| 2016 | Panthers | @ Broncos | -3 | 41 | 20-21 | L | Push |
| 2015 | Seahawks | @ Rams | -3.5 | 42 | 31-34 | L | Over |
| 2014 | Broncos | Colts | -8 | 55 | 31-24 | L | Push |
| 2013 | 49ers | Packers | -4.5 | 48.5 | 34-28 | W | Over |
| 2012 | Patriots | @ Titans | -6 | 47.5 | 34-13 | W | Under |
| 2011 | Steelers | @ Ravens | +2 | 36.5 | 7-35 | L | Over |
| 2010 | Colts | @ Texans | -1 | 47.5 | 24-34 | L | Over |
| 2009 | Cardinals | 49ers | -6 | 46 | 16-20 | L | Under |
| 2008 | Patriots | Chiefs | -15.5 | 44 | 17-10 | L | Under |
| 2007 | Bears | @ Chargers | +6 | 42.5 | 3-14 | L | Under |
| 2006 | Seahawks | @ Lions | -6.5 | 45 | 9-6 | L | Under |
| 2005 | Eagles | @ Falcons | -1 | 41.5 | 10-14 | L | Under |
| 2004 | Panthers | Packers | -3 | 43.5 | 14-24 | L | Under |
| 2003 | Raiders | @ Titans | +3 | 46 | 20-25 | L | Under |
| 2002 | Rams | @ Broncos | -3 | 51 | 16-23 | L | Under |
| 2001 | Giants | @ Broncos | +6.5 | 44.5 | 20-31 | L | Over |
| 2000 | Titans | @ Bills | +1 | 40 | 13-16 | L | Under |
Always a good idea to bet the UNDER when it comes to the SB loser’s NFL season win total.
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