So much attention is given to the two teams that are playing in the Super Bowl. You might not watch every playoff game, but chances are you will be glued to your seat for the final game of the year.
Win or lose, the two teams that just played in the last game of the season are going to be covered in great detail by the media. We often put such a bias on what happened the previous year, these teams are overrated in the eye of the public the next season.
Regardless of what happened in the offseason. The team that won it all the previous year is considered the team to beat. While the loser is considered to be on the rise. Both are often picked to win their division and many times play for the title again the next year.
Today I wanted to share with you how both the winner and loser of the previous title game did in Week 1. I’ve put together detailed results for both below in separate tables. I believe it’s something worth keeping an eye on when it comes time to start handicapping the NFL season.
How the Defending Super Bowl Champion Performs in Week 1 of the NFL
You might be surprised to see how well the defending champions have performed in Week 1 of the NFL regular-season. Knowing what we know with our Week 1 NFL Betting Systems, we would expect these teams to not be good bets. Going back to 2000, last year’s SB winner has gone 11-6-1 ATS.
Last year (2017) it didn’t go so well for the Patriots, as they got annihilated 42-27 at home by the Chiefs. That snapped a streak of three straight covers for the defending champs. This year the Eagles will try to get the system back on track. Philadelphia is a 4-point favorite at home against the Falcons. Note that the system has only produced back-to-back losers just once since 2000.
|Season||SB Champ||Wk 1 Opp||Line (Total)||Total||SU Result||ATS||Total|
Super Bowl Losers in Week 1 of the Following Season
We have uncovered some nice value with taking the SB Champion in Week 1. If you liked that, you are definitely going to like the numbers when it comes to the performance of the loser. That is unless it’s your favorite team. If that’s the case, don’t expect a lot of your squad in their first game.
The teams who lost in the previous title game, have gone a miserable 2-16 ATS since 2000. I know it’s a small sample size, but that’s a 11.1% win rate against the spread. I don’t know about you, but a 16-2 run over 18 picks is something I’ll take any chance I can get.
Why do these teams perform so poorly? A lot of it has to do with the majority of these teams opening up on the road. Not to mention they are dealing with an inflated line. It’s also a part of a major misconception the public has of these teams who lose in the big game being more hungry to get back the next year. Outside of the Bills in the 90’s, that’s just not the case. People overlook the negative emotional impact it has on a team to be so close to their ultimate goal.
Last year it was the Falcons who came up short in a 6-pont win at Chicago as a 6.5-point favorite. The year prior to that, Cam Newton and the Panthers were coming off 15-1 mark in the regular season and cruised all the way up to their crushing loss to the Broncos in the last game of the year. The following season, they were picked by many to win their division and get back to the big game. Carolina finished dead last in the NFC South at 6-10.
If there was going to be one exception to this rule it would have to be the Patriots, who have been one of the most consistent franchises we have ever seen. It just so happens New England falls into this spot this year. The Patriots are responsible for one of the two wins, but also failed to cover in another attempt.
I would usually also suggest betting the UNDER when it comes to the SB loser’s win total, but not this time around. Get a full list of the NFL win totals for this season by clicking the link. You can also check out my NFL predictions page to see where I have each team finishing in 2018.
|Season||SB Loser||Wk 1 Opp||Line||Total||SU Result||ATS||Total|