Jack Jones of BetFirm Daily Free Sports Picks & Predictions

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Cincinnati +2.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats are motivated to make the NCAA Tournament and playing their best basketball of the season to try and get in.  They are squarely on the bubble, and a road win at TCU here would likely cement their spot in the Big Dance.

Jizzle James (11.6 PPG) has missed 10 games this season, but they've been dominant with him in the lineup down the stretch.  The Bearcats have gone 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall with their lone loss coming on the road at Texas Tech.  They won by 16 at Kansas and by 29 at Kansas State, while also crushing UCF by 20, Oklahoma State by 23 and BYU by 22 at home.

TCU punched its ticket into the NCAA Tournament with a 73-65 upset road win at Texas Tech last time out.  That was a letdown spot for the Red Raiders coming off their huge win over Iowa State on the road, handing the Cyclones their first home loss of the season.  TCU took advantage.

But now this is the letdown spot for the Horned Frogs, who have been far from dominant at home (8-10 ATS) this season.  They have actually been a better bet on the road (9-3 ATS).  Wrong team favored here.  Bet Cincinnati Saturday.

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15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Providence +1.5

Providence wants revenge from a 81-78 home loss to Georgetown in their first meeting this season.  The Friars have been victims of close losses all season, but this is their chance to take out their frustration on the Hoyas.

These are two teams headed in opposite directions.  Providence is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four games overall and fully healthy, while Georgetown is 0-7 SU & 3-4 ATS in its last seven games and far from healthy.

In fact, the Hoyas just lost leading scorer KJ Lewis (14.9 PPG) to an ankle injury and he will miss this game.  Lewis had 26 points in the first meeting with Providence, so his loss will be felt today.  Bet Providence Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Warriors/Thunder UNDER 220

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 3-0 UNDER in their last three games overall going for 187 combined points with Dallas, 224 with Chicago and 203 with New York.  They are missing some firepower on offense with three of their top seven scorers out in Williams, Mitchell and Hartenstein.

But the Thunder are the best defensive team in the NBA, and they will shut down a Warriors team that is also missing a bunch of firepower.  Curry, Butler and Moody are out.  Porzingis and Melton are questionable.  That's five of their top six scorers.

The Warriors just went for 202 combined points with the Rockets at the end of regulation and 215 with the Clippers in their last two games coming into this one.  They are still a very good defensive team even without these guys and are having to hang their hats on defense right now to be competitive.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Atlanta Hawks -6.5

The Atlanta Hawks are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall and absolutely crushing the opposition.  All five wins have come by 11 points or more including an 18-point win at Milwaukee and a 34-point home win over Portland in their last two.

The Hawks are showing what they are capable of when they are as healthy as they are right now.  They are also motivated to make the playoffs as they currently sit in 9th place in the East, just 2.5 games behind the Philadelphia 76ers for the 6th seed would would avoid the play-in.

Now the Hawks will be motivated to shrink that margin as they host the 76ers tonight.  They face a beat up 76ers team that is struggling right now due to all their injuries.  They are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall losing by 16 in Boston, by 40 at home to San Antonio and needing a late comeback to stave off the tanking Jazz by 4 as 7.5-point home favorites.

The 76ers are without Embiid (26.6 PPG), George (16.0 PPG) and Edgecombe (15.3 PPG).  They face a rested Hawks team playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  And a Hawks team that has owned the 76ers, going 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS i the least eight meetings.  Bet the Hawks Saturday.

15* Auburn/Alabama ESPN ANNIHILATOR on OVER 176

Alabama is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 4th in adjusted tempo, 7th in average length of offensive possession, 3rd in adjusted offense and 64th in adjusted defense.  The Crimson Tide and their opponents have gone for 173 or more combined points in four of their last five games.

Auburn is a dead nuts OVER team ranking 11th in adjusted offense and 116th in adjusted defense.  The Tigers are 18-12 OVER in all games this season.  They are coming off three straight OVERS.

Alabama beat Auburn 96-92 for 188 combined points in their first meeting this season on February 7th.  It will be more of the same in the rematch today and another absolute shootout in this rivalry.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Oklahoma/Texas SEC ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma +8

The Oklahoma Sooners were snake bitten by a ton of close losses to open SEC play.  They have finally started to get things to go their way and are playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.

The Sooners have gone 5-2 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They upset Vanderbilt and LSU on the road, while also crushing Missouri by 16, Auburn by 12 and Georgia by 16 at home.  Now they have their sights set on revenge against their biggest rivals in Texas.

Oklahoma lost 79-69 at home to Texas.  The Longhorns shot 60% from the field while the Sooners shot 41%.  They are due some positive shooting regression in the rematch.

They now face a Texas team that is headed in the other direction.  The Longhorns are 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They only beat LSU by 3 at home, lost by 11 at Georgia, lost by 13 at home to Florida and lost by 20 at Arkansas.  They have no business being an 8-point favorite tonight.  Home-court advantage has meant very little in this rivalry.  Bet Oklahoma Saturday.

15* Big West PLAY OF THE DAY on CS-Fullerton +6

CS-Fullerton has gone 6-2 SU in its last eight games overall with its only two losses coming to the top two teams in the Big West in UC-Irvine and Hawaii.  The Titans now have a shot at a at a bye into the quarterfinals of the Big West Tournament.

They are tied for 4th place with four other teams, trailing CS-Northridge by one game for 3rd place.  But they won the first meeting with CS-Northridge 86-79 at home, so they would own the tiebreaker over them with a season sweep today.

CS-Northridge is 2-2 but 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall and not playing well at all.  They only won by 2 over Long Beach State and by 2 over CS-Bakersfield, which are two of the three worst teams in the Big West.  They lost by 11 to UC-Riverside, the other bottom 3 team.  They have no business being 6-point favorites here as Fullerton is clearly playing the better basketball right now.  Bet CS-Fullerton Saturday.

20* Big 12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Utah/Baylor OVER 149.5

This will be a carefree shootout between two bottom feeders in the Big 12.  Both teams are all offense and no defense, and that will play out on the court today in what will feel like a pick up game with nothing at stake for either team.

Baylor ranks 28th in adjusted offense but 114th in adjusted defense.  The Bears have played several shootouts here down the stretch going for 193 combined points with BYU, 153 with Louisville, 164 with K-State, 167 with Arizona and 173 with UCF in five of their last seven games.

Utah ranks 94th in adjusted offense but just 195th in adjusted defense.  The Utes are coming off a 92-78 loss to Colorado and 170 combined points.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Utah +13

The Utah Utes are not getting blown out of late especially on the road.  They haven't lost a single road game all season by more than 14 points, and all but one came by 13 points or fewer.  They will be competitive today, too.

Baylor has no business being a 13-point favorite here.  The Bears are 5-12 in Big 12 play and aren't blowing anyone out.  I also think it's a letdown spot for the Bears, who are coming off two big road games beating UCF by 1 and faltering late in a 13-point loss at Houston.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat Utah today.  Bet Utah Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on California +6.5

The Cal Golden Bears (21-9, 9-8 ACC) are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament with some work to do.  They are currently the first time listed on Joe Lunardi's 'Next 4 Out' line and could really use this road win at Wake Forest.

Cal has done its part down the stretch to put itself in this position to strike by going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Bears have played their best basketball on the road going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six road games to improve to 7-2 ATS in true road games this season.  That includes upset road wins at Miami and Stanford.

Wake Forest is 7-12 SU & 7-12 ATS in its last 19 games overall.  The Demon Deacons are being overvalued here as 6.5-point home favorites.  They are without senior G Nate Calmese (10.1 PPG, 4.8 APG) who is also their best 3-point shooter at 39.5% and their only true PG.  Bet California Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado State ML -115

Colorado State is playing better than anyone in the Mountain West to close the season.  The Rams are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They beat New Mexico and UNLV on the road, while also beating San Diego State at home during this stretch.

The Rams are now in a tie for 5th place in the Mountain West.  The top four seeds get a bye in the conference tournament, and they own the tiebreaker over 4th place Grand Canyon.  So a win today coupled with a loss by Grand Canyon would get them a bye.

Boise State is also in a tie for 5th place in the Mountain West.  But the Broncos lost both meetings with Grand Canyon this season and that would have them losing out on the tiebreaker.  They are much less motivated than the Rams heading into the season finale, which is Senior Day as well.  Bet Colorado State on the Money Line Saturday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado +14.5

This is the letdown spot for Arizona.  The Wildcats clinched the outright Big 12 regular season title with a home win over Iowa State last time out.  Head coach Tommy Lloyd called out the media for calling his team soft.  But I expect a very soft effort from the Wildcats today in this clear letdown spot.

Colorado is no pushover at home.  The Buffaloes are 13-4 SU at home this season.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four Big 12 home games beating K-State by 9, Oklahoma State by 14, ASU by 8 and TCU by 26.  This is their 'national championship' on Senior Day and we will get an inspired effort from the Buffaloes tonight.  Bet Colorado Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Marquette +9.5

The Marquette Golden Eagles have been grossly undervalued while the UConn Huskies have been grossly overvalued due to their records this season.  UConn sits at 27-3 while Marquette site at 11-19.

The Huskies are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall with 10 wins by 12 points or fewer.  They have been fortunate in close games all season, which is the opposite of Marquette, which has 13 losses by 11 points or fewer and nine by single-digits this season.

Marquette has not quit, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall.  The Golden Eagles are coming off a 78-56 road win at Providence.  They will be motivated to wreck UConn's bit at earning a share of the Big East title, which is what they are aiming for today.  This is Marquette's national championship game and it's Senior Day to boot.  Bet Marquette Saturday.

15* Louisville/Miami ACC ANNIHILATOR on Miami PK

The Miami Hurricanes are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 at Virginia as 7.5-point dogs.  They have road wins over SMU, NC State and SMU during this stretch as well as a home win over UNC.

Now the Hurricanes will be motivated to cap off the regular season with a win on Senior Day in their finale.  They have three senior starters including their top two scorers in Reneau (19.1 PPG) and Donaldson (16.6 PPG).

Louisville really doesn't have a good road win all season.  The Cardinals are 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS in 10 true road games.  They lost four of their last five ACC road games at Clemson, UNC, SMU and Duke.  They will be without second-leading scorer and star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. (18.2 PPG) today, too.  Bet Miami Saturday.

15* Big 12 Total DOMINATOR on Kansas State/Kansas UNDER 157

Kansas is a dead nuts UNDER team going 21-9 UNDER in all games this season.  The Jayhawks are 3-0 UNDER in their last three games overall going for 125 combined points with Houston, 145 with Arizona and 130 with ASU.

K-State is 3-0 UNDER in its last three games overall.  The Wildcats have gone for 149 combined points with Colorado, 145 with TCU and 128 with West Virginia.  Leading scorer PJ Haggerty (23.3 PPG) is questionable to play for the Wildcats today as well after missing their last game.

Kansas beat Kansas State 86-62 on February 24th for just 148 combined points in their first meeting this season.  The Jayhawks and Wildcats have gone for 158 or fewer combined points in five consecutive meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Joe's -9.5

St. Joe's is the most underrated team in the Atlantic 10.  The Hawks have gone 12-3 SU & 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games overall with their three losses all coming by single-digits.  They have won five in a row coming in and will be motivated to keep this momentum going on Senior Day today.

La Salle is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games overall with both wins coming at home over Rhode Island and Fordham.  The Explorers are 1-12 SU & 5-8 ATS on the road this season consistently getting blown out.  They have been outscored by 14.4 points per game on the road this season.

St. Joe's beat La Salle 67-58 on the road in their first meeting this season.  They had Jaeden Marshall (12.0 PPG) and Jerome Brewer Jr. (11.2 PPG) for that game, but Marshall has missed the last four games and Brewers Jr. the last three games and both are likely out again.  That leaves the Explorers extremely short-handed without two of their top three scorers heading into this one.  Bet St. Joe's Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +12

Virginia Tech is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  The Hokies are currently listed on the 'First 4 Out' line according to Joe Lunardi.  A win over rival Virginia would certainly put them on the right side of the bubble.

Virginia Tech already beat Virginia 95-85 (OT) at home in their first meeting this season.  So the Hokies already know they can play with them.  And they have actually been a better bet on the road than they have been at home this season.

Indeed, the Hokies are a perfect 9-0 ATS in true road games this season.  They've lost just one road game by double-digits all season.  This one will go down to the wire as well.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Coastal Carolina -1.5

The Sun Belt Tournament is staggered this season to give the top teams the biggest advantages.  The 1 and 2 seeds get a bye all the way to the semifinals, while the 3 and 4 seeds get a bye to the quarterfinals.

Coastal Carolina earned the 3rd seed with a big finish in the regular season.  The Chanticleers went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their final six games with their lone loss coming by 2 to James Madison.  They avenged that loss in the season finale and have been off since February 27th.

The Chanticleers have one of the best rest advantages I've ever seen heading into this quarterfinal matchup with Georgia Southern, which will be playing its 4th game in 4 days.  And all three games were absolute wars with a 88-84 win over ODU Wednesday, a 80-77 win over Arkansas State Thursday and a 94-85 win over South Alabama Friday.

The Eagles had to erase a double-digit deficit in the final 10 minutes to upset South Alabama Friday.  Four starters played at least 33 minutes.  They made a school-record 23-of-44 (52%) from 3-point range to pull off the upset.  I have to think they are due some shooting regression today, especially playing on such tired legs.  This is where their run ends, and getting the Chanticleers as basically a PK is an absolute gift tonight.  Bet Coastal Carolina Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on DePaul -2.5

Amazingly, the DePaul Blue Demons would finish in 5th place in the Big East with a win Saturday.  That's significant because the Top 5 teams in the Big East all get byes into the quarterfinals.  They would win out on the tiebreaker with Creighton due to sweeping the season series.

So the Blue Demons will be max motivated not only to clinch that bye, but to win this game for their seniors on Senior Day.  This is a senior-led team with four of their top six scorers all seniors.  We are going to get a big effort from DePaul today to say the least.

Butler is 2-8 SU & 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games overall with its lone two wins coming against the two worst teams in the Big East in Georgetown (by 4) and Xavier (by 5).  The Bulldogs are just playing out the string and coming off a 17-point home loss to Creighton.  I don't see them showing up today, either.

DePaul also wants revenge from a 87-80 road loss at Butler in their first meeting this season.  Butler shot 56.9% from the field and 47.1% from 3 while DePaul shot 41.3% from the field and 30.3% from 3.  It's safe to say the Blue Demons are due some positive shooting regression in their favor in the rematch at home this time around.  Bet DePaul Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Missouri ESPN No-Brainer on Missouri -1.5

Missouri is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament currently listed as a Last 4 byes team according to Joe Lunardi.  The Tigers could really use this signature win over Arkansas that would likely get them into the Big Dance.

Not only will the Tigers be motivated to make the tournament, they'll be motivated to send their Seniors out a winner on Senior Day.  They also want revenge from a 94-86 loss at Arkansas as 9.5-point dogs on February 21st just two weeks ago.  That was a rare loss for the Tigers here down the stretch as they have gone 6-3 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.

But the biggest reason I'm backing Missouri and fading Arkansas is the fact that the Razorbacks will be without one of the best players in the country in Darius Acuff Jr. (22.2 PPG, 6.4 APG) today due to an ankle injury.  He will be missing his first game of the season.

The loss of Acuff Jr. cannot be overstated.  He just had 28 points and 13 assists in a win over Texas last time out.  He had 20 points in that first game against Missouri.  And he recently scored 49 against Alabama.  He makes everything go for them offensively.  The Tigers should be favored by more today given Acuff's absence and the motivational advantages.  Arkansas has already clinched a double-bye in the SEC Tournament and appears to be punting this game.  Bet Missouri Saturday.