Jack Jones of BetFirm Free Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+105) 

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the hottest teams in baseball.  They are 25-9 in their last 34 games overall to overtake first place in the NL Central.  The Milwaukee Brewers are now without Christian Yelich due to a season-ending injury, and the life has been sucked out of them because of it. 

I’ll gladly back Jack Flaherty, who has been the best starter in baseball in the second half of the season.  Flaherty is 6-1 with a minuscule 0.71 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star Break.  He has basically been untouchable down the stretch. 

Jordan Lyles is 10-8 with a 4.38 ERA and 1.348 WHIP in 25 starts this season, and 5-3 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.382 WHIP in 12 road starts.  Lyles is 2-4 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.514 WHIP in seven career starts against the Cardinals as well. 

The Cardinals are 23-7 in their last 30 home games.  St. Louis is 40-18 in its last 58 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Cardinals are 7-1 in Flaherty’s last eight starts on 5 days’ rest.  St. Louis is 4-0 in Flaherty’s last four home starts.  St. Louis is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings and 6-1 in the last seven home meetings.  Take the Cardinals Saturday. 

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: San Diego State -14.5 

The San Diego State Aztecs are coming off a rare down year.  They went 7-6 last season and lost each of their final four games of the season.  I think they came into 2019 motivated and undervalued as a result.  Rocky Long has been one of the most steady head coaches in the country, winning at least 7 games in each of his eight seasons here.  The Aztecs had won 10-plus games in each of his previous three seasons before 2018. 

After a shaky start to the season with a 6-0 win over a good FCS program in Weber State, the Aztecs rose to the occasion with a 23-14 road win as 7.5-point underdogs at UCLA last week.  They got their offense going with 373 total yards, including 293 passing.  And their always dominant 3-3-5 defense shut down the Bruins, limiting them to 14 points and 261 total yards.  It’s never easy to hold a Chip Kelly offense down like that. 

New Mexico State is one of the worst teams in FBS college football.  That has been evident through the first two weeks as they lost 7-58 at Washington State and 10-62 at Alabama.  And both of those teams called off the dogs late.  I think New Mexico State is banged up and defeated after facing two great Power 5 programs, and they won’t have much left in the tank for a physical San Diego State team this week.  They won’t be up for the fight. 

San Diego State is 9-1-1 all-time against New Mexico State with seven straight wins by an average of 27 points per game.  The Aztecs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a losing record.  San Diego State is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 vs. a team with a losing record overall.  New Mexico State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Aggies are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet San Diego State Saturday.

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15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rice +32.5 

The Texas Longhorns are in a massive flat spot here Saturday against Rice.  Texas played in a huge game at home against LSU last week and came up short in a 38-45 shootout.  Now they have their Big 12 opener on deck against Oklahoma State.  I just can’t see them putting forth a very good effort here as they are deflated off that LSU loss, and they just want to get on to Oklahoma State and get out of here with a win against Rice. Asking them to cover 32.5 points in this flat spot is asking too much. 

Texas allowed 573 total yards to a mediocre LSU offense last week.  That came a week after they gave up 413 total yards against Louisiana Tech in a game that was much closer than the final score would indicate.  That’s a LA Tech team that went on to only beat Grambling 20-14 as 30-point home favorites last week.  It’s a young Texas defense that returned just three starters and lost each of its top three tacklers from a year ago. 

I have been impressed with this Rice team thus far.  Former Stanford offensive coordinator Mike Bloomgren has been trying to copy the blueprint at Stanford.  He has recruited some big offensive linemen so the Owls can move people up front.  They are trying to run the ball and shorten games, which gives them the best chance to be competitive despite the lack of skill talent. 

Rice only lost 7-14 at Army as 23-point underdogs in their opener.  That’s an Army team that went on to nearly upset Michigan, losing in overtime in the Big House last week.  It’s also an Army team that won 11 games last year, so it just shows what Rice is capable of. 

Last week, Rice lost 21-41 at home to Wake Forest as 20-point dogs to push the number.  They showed they could throw the ball if needed, passing for 254 yards on 22-of-35 attempts.  I know starting QB Wiley Green was injured in that game, but Harvard transfer Tom Stewart stepped in and did a great job.  Stewart has been the better QB thus far, completing 63.3% of his 30 attempts compared to 52.6% on 19 attempts for Green.  So I think the QB injury here is getting factored into the line too much. 

The Owls are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have been undervalued because the betting public has wanted nothing to do with them.  Rice is 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. Big 12 opponents.  Texas will be more than satisfied with a victory by three or four touchdowns, and don’t be surprised if this game is much closer than anticipated with the sandwich spot for the Longhorns.  Bet Rice Saturday. 

15* Clemson/Syracuse ACC ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse +28.5 

I faded Clemson with success last week on Texas A&M.  And I’m fading them again for many of the same reasons.  Being the No. 1 team in the country and the defending national champs comes with expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public that are hard to live up to.  The Tigers are lucky not to be 0-2 ATS as Georgia Tech fumbled going into the end zone, losing by 38 as 36.5-point dogs. 

Last week, Clemson wasn’t all that dominant at home against Texas A&M.  They won 24-10 as 15.5-point favorites and only outgained the Aggies by 100 yards.  All the hype surrounding Trevor Lawrence may be getting to him.  He has thrown two touchdowns against three interceptions and is only averaging 7.5 yards per attempt. 

This is the perfect ‘buy low’ situation on Syracuse.  Many thought Syracuse was the second-best team in the ACC coming into the season because they won 10 games last year.  After beating Liberty 24-0, the Orange fell flat last week amidst the big expectations and lost 20-63 at Maryland.  That was exactly the humbling they needed, and it was clearly a lookahead spot for them to this Clemson game, so you can understand the poor performance. 

Syracuse is clearly better than they showed against Maryland last week.  They returned 13 starters this year, including seven on defense and are better on that side of the ball than the 63 points they allowed to Maryland.  Keep in mind they shut out Liberty the previous week.  And offensively, Tommy DeVito now has two starts under his belt and should be much more comfortable moving forward.  He has leading rusher Moe Neal and three of his top four receivers back from last year, so it’s only a matter of time before this Dino Babers offense takes off after scoring 40.2 points per game last year. 

Syracuse has played Clemson as tough as anyone the last two years.  They won 27-24 as 23-point underdogs in the Carrier Dome in 2017.  Then they came back last year and led most the way at Clemson before giving up a late score to lose 23-27 as 24.5-point dogs.  Imagine the disrespect they are feeling now as 28.5-point underdogs at home this year after taking Clemson to the wire each of the last two seasons.  They will be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week.  And it will be a great night time atmosphere with this game behind played at 7:30 PM EST inside the Carrier Dome. 

Dabo Swinney is 4-12 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points as the coach of Clemson.  Te Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six September games.  The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five games off a loss by more than 20 points.  Syracuse is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight September games.  The Orange are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Syracuse Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia -7 

The Virginia Cavaliers are a team on the rise under fourth-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall.  He has improved this team in each of his first three seasons, going from 2-10 in Year 1 to 6-7 in Year 2 and 8-5 in Year 3 last season.  Now he has his best team yet and some stability in the program with how well he has recruited.  The Cavaliers are a legit contender to win the Coastal this year. 

Last year, the Cavaliers lost five games, but three were by 4 points or fewer.  They were in every game they played.  Now they have 14 starters back and one of the best defenses in the ACC with eight starters back from a unit that gave up just 20.1 points per game. 

Offensively, the Cavaliers return stud quarterback Bryce Perkins, which will help make up for the fact that they only return six starters on that side of the ball.  Perkins threw for 2,680 yards with a 25-to-9 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 923 yards and nine scores.  The offensive line returns three starters and they have 17 offensive linemen on scholarship, so Mendenhall now has the numbers he wants up front. 

Virginia is off to an impressive 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season.  They beat Pittsburgh handily 30-14 on the road in Week 1 while limiting the Panthers to just 263 total yards.  That’s a Pitt team that went on to beat a good Ohio team 20-10 at home last week.  Then Virginia handled their business in a 52-17 win over William & Mary as 32.5-point favorites last week. 

Florida State failed to make a bowl game last year at 5-7.  Many thought they’d bounce back this season, but from what I’ve seen so far, they are just a bad, undisciplined football team.  Florida State lost its opener 31-36 at home to Boise State as 6.5-point favorites.  Then, the Seminoles were fortunate to escape with a 45-44 (OT) home victory over Louisiana-Monroe as 23-point favorites last week. 

It’s clear the Seminoles have an awful defense.  They are giving up 40.0 points and 520.0 yards per game this season.  And that’s where the difference lies in this football game.  Virginia has one of the best defenses in the country, giving up just 15.5 points and 228 yards per game through their first two games.  These teams are similar offensively. 

I also like the fact that this is a night game for Virginia, so it will be a rowdy atmosphere in Charlottesville.  Fans are very excited about this team as they have a great chance to win the Coastal and get to the ACC Championship Game.  Virginia has easily been the most impressive team in the Coastal thus far, and arguably the second-best team in the ACC behind Clemson.

I'm definitely starting to believe that Willie Taggart is an overrated head coach.  If he can't make the talent work in Tallahassee, that's on him.  And Taggart is 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS as a road underdogs in his time between Oregon and Florida State with the five ATS losses coming by an average of 17 points per game.

Florida State is 0-7 ATS off a home game over the last two seasons.  Virginia is 6-0 ATS in the first month of the season over the last two years.  Mendenhall is 11-1 ATS off a non-conference game as the coach of Virginia.  The Cavaliers are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  These four trends combine for a 32-1 system backing the Cavaliers.  Take Virginia Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Air Force +5 

The Colorado Buffaloes are in a massive letdown spot this week.  They came back from 17-0 down at halftime to beat Nebraska 34-31 in overtime last week.  They have their Pac-12 opener on deck against Arizona State next week, making this a sandwich game for them. 

Now the Buffaloes have to try and get ready for the Air Force triple-option in just one week’s time, which is very hard to do.  And this is a Colorado defense that has been absolutely gashed this season.  They have given up 487 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play.  They have actually been outgained on the season despite their 2-0 start, and I think they’re overrated because of it. 

Air Force is a team I’ve very high on coming into the year.  The Falcons are coming off a 5-7 season, but they were much better than their record would indicate last year.  Four of their losses came by 3, 3, 4 and 6 points.  In fact, all seven of their losses came by 10 points or less, so they were competitive in every game they played.  They can only have better luck in close games this season. 

Air Force returns a whopping 15 starters, which is a ton for a service academy.  It’s their most returning starters since 2014, when they went 10-3.  This is easily the best team Air Force has had in years, and I have no doubt they will be one of the most improved teams in the country. 

The Falcons are off to a flying start by handling Colgate 48-7 as 20.5-point favorites in their opener.  They rushed for 423 yards and will be a force on the ground again with four returning starters along the offensive line.  And they had a bye last week to get ready for Colorado, giving them a big edge in rest and preparation. 

The Falcons are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games, including 8-1 ATS in none-conference games overall the last three seasons.  Colorado is 1-9 ATS after a game where 60 or more total points were scored over the last three seasons.  The Buffaloes are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Colorado is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record overall.  Bet Air Force Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Temple +7.5 

Talk about an overreaction.  Maryland has started 2-0 with two blowout wins over Howard (79-0) and Syracuse (63-20).  Now they are ranked 24th in the country and getting a ton of hype.  This is exactly the type of spot I like to fade teams in. 

Temple didn’t play last week as they had a bye, giving them a full two weeks to prepare for Maryland.  You know that they are going to be extra amped for this game hearing all the good things about Maryland in the media.  And the Owls love being counted out as they have been one of the best money makers in college football over the last few years, especially in the underdog role. 

New Temple head coach Rod Carey comes over from Northern Illinois.  He won at least 8 games in five of his six seasons at NIU and three MAC titles.  He brought over both his offensive and defensive coordinators from NIU, so there will be some stability here. 

The cupboard clearly isn’t bare for Carey, either.  Temple returned 14 starters from a team that went 8-5 last year.  Their four losses during the regular season all came by 12 points or less, so they were competitive in every game.  And one of those games included a 35-14 win at Maryland as 15-point underdogs.  They outgained the Terrapins 429 to 195 in that beat down.  So you can imagine how they feel about being 7-point dogs in the rematch. 

Temple returns a lot of talent on both sides of the ball.  They have seven starters back on offense from a unit that put up 34.7 points per game, including QB Anthony Russo and five linemen with starting experience.  The defense also returns seven starters from a unit that allowed 27.1 points per game.  Seven of the top 10 tacklers are back. 

Temple took care of business 56-12 as 40-point favorites over Canisius in their opener.  You would expect them to struggle a little in their first game with a new head coach, but that didn’t happen at all.  They put up 695 yards on offense, including 507 passing yards as they weren’t afraid at all to let loose and air it out.  Their defense gave up just 211 total yards, including 21 rushing on 26 attempts. 

Stopping the run will be the key to stopping Maryland.  The Terrapins have rushed for over 300 yards in each of their first two games, but those were against two bad defenses in Howard and Syracuse.  Temple has been known for stopping the run and great linebackers.  They have allowed 4.0 or fewer yards per carry in four of the past five seasons.  I expect them to be great against the run again this season with five starters back in their front seven. 

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Temple) - a team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 74-33 (69.2%) ATS since 1992.  It’s really time to ’sell high’ on Maryland this week. 

The Owls are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games overall. Temple is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after gaining 280 or more passing yards last game.  Maryland is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Terrapins are 6-23 ATS in their last 29 games following a win, and 7-25 ATS in their last 32 games off an ATS win.  Maryland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Roll with Temple Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville -10 

Louisville came into the season way undervalued.  They went 2-10 last season and Bobby Petrino was let go before season’s end.  Simply put, the Cardinals quit on Petrino.  They lost their final nine games and were never really competitive.  I have no doubt the talent level on that team was better than their 2-10 record.  And keep in mind that Louisville had been to eight straight bowl games prior to last year.  They had won 8 or more games in six straight seasons coming into 2018. 

I loved the hiring of Scott Satterfield in the offseason.  He came over from Appalachian State where he compiled a 51-24 record there.  Fortunately for Satterfield, the cupboard wasn’t left bare.  Louisville returned 16 starters in all.  They should be one of the most improved defensive teams in the country with 10 starters back on that side of the ball. 

So far, so good for Satterfield and company.  I was very impressed with their 17-35 loss to Notre Dame as 18.5-point favorites in the opener.  That’s a Notre Dame team that went 12-0 in the regular season last year and made the four-team playoff.  And they played the Fighting Irish toe-to-toe, only getting outgained by 31 yards.  The difference was the 3-to-1 turnover edge for the Irish. 

Last week, Louisville took it to Eastern Kentucky 42-0 as 21-point favorites.  They outgained Eastern Kentucky by 370 total yards and held them to just 172 yards of offense.  It’s the type of team that Louisville would have struggled against last season.  But this is clearly a revamped and revitalized Louisville squad under the leadership of Satterfield. 

Western Kentucky is getting way too much respect for beating Florida International 20-14 last week.  That’s an FIU team that lost 14-42 to Tulane in their opener.  It’s clear that FIU was one of the most overrated teams in the country coming into the season. 

I think the home loss to Central Arkansas 28-35 as 10-point favorites in the opener is a better sign of how good this Western Kentucky team is.  Losing to an FCS opponent as a double-digit favorite is never a good sign.  They gave up 404 passing yards to Central Arkansas in the loss. 

Louisville is 16-4-1 ATS in its last 21 vs. Conference USA opponents.  Western Kentucky is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 non-conference games.  This spread is also low because Louisville only beat WKU 20-17 last year.  But like I said, that was a team that quit on Petrino, and now they are ‘all in’ for Satterfield and playing up to their talent level.  I expect this game to be over by halftime.  Take Louisville Saturday.

20* K-State/Mississippi State ESPN No-Brainer on Kansas State +8.5 

Kansas State got a great hire to replace the legendary Bill Snyder this offseason.  Chris Klieman won four FCS national titles in his five seasons at North Dakota State.  And he stepped into a good situation at Kansas State with 14 returning starters. 

The Wildcats are off to an impressive 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS start this season.  They beat Nicholls State by 35 as 20.5-point favorites.  They beat Bowling Green 52-0 as 24.5-point favorites.  They have covered the spread by a combined 42 points in their first two games. 

The defense has been really impressive and allowed just 140 total yards to Bowling Green last week.  That’s a Bowling Green offense that had 620 yards and 46 points in their opener.  The Wildcats also brought back a veteran QB in Skyler Thompson, who has played well.  And the running game has produced an average of 347 yards per game and 6 yards per carry thus far. 

Kansas State wants revenge from a 31-10 home loss to Mississippi State last year.  But that was a Mississippi State team that was way better than this 2019 version.  I am way down on these Bulldogs and the UNDER 7.5 wins for them was one of my favorite win totals coming into the season. 

I think the loss of Dan Mullen will be felt this season.  Jim Moorhead no longer has Mullen’s recruits to rely on.  The Bulldogs returned just 11 starters this season.  The defense lost three first-round draft picks.  And they lost their stud QB in Nick Fitzgerald on offense. 

I have not been impressed at all by Mississippi State thus far despite their 2-0 start.  The only beat Louisiana Lafayette by 10 as 18.5-point favorites in their opener.  They beat Southern Miss by 23 as 16-point favorites last week, but that was a misleading final.  They only outgained Lafayette by 67 yards and Southern Miss by 42 yards.   

The Bulldogs even took advantage of a combined 8 turnovers forced by their defense, yet still weren’t impressive.  Kansas State isn’t the type of team that beats themselves.  The Bulldogs won’t be gifted those same turnovers by the Wildcats. 

I think Mississippi State could be overlooking Kansas State with its SEC opener on deck next week.  Conversely, Kansas State has a bye next week, so they’ll be all in especially since they are seeking revenge. 

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Kansas State) - after scoring 42 points or more in two straight games are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Kansas State is 21-9-1 ATS in its last 31 road games against a team with a winning home record.  Bet Kansas State Saturday.