Jack Jones of BetFirm Daily Free Sports Picks & Predictions

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Mariners/A's OVER 9

Sutter Health Park is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.  The A's have gone 43-28-3 OVER in all home games this season.  Most of their totals are set at 10 or higher at home, and this total of 9 is too short.

The A's have gone 10-3 OVER in their last 13 games overall.  The A's have scored at least 5 runs in seven of their last 11 games overall despite playing six of those games on the road.  The Mariners are going through their best offensive stretch of the season.  They are 9-2-1 OVER in their last 12 games overall with 11 or more combined runs in eight of them.  They have scored 4 runs or more in nine of their last 12 games.  They just scored 19 runs on the A's yesterday.

Bryce Miller is an absolute gas can for the Mariners.  He is 4-9 with a 4.22 ERA in 18 starts this season, and 3-4 with a 4.69 ERA in nine road starts.  Miller has allowed at least 4 earned runs in seven of his last 10 starts.  He has a 8.10 ERA in his last five starts allowing 21 earned runs in 23 1/3 innings.  MIller has allowed 7 earned runs and 2 homers in 9 2/3 innings in his last two starts against the A's.

Jacob Lopez is 6-4 with a 4.78 ERA in 21 starts and three relief appearances this season.  Like almost all A's starters, he has been at his worst at home going 0-3 with a 5.20 ERA in 11 home starts.  Lopez has allowed a whopping 11 earned runs, 3 homers and 21 base runners in 7 1/3 innings in his last two starts against the Mariners.

Both bullpens are also trash.  Seattle has a 4.47 ERA on the season and a 5.07 ERA on the road.  The A's have a 5.45 ERA on the season and a 6.68 ERA at home.  The OVER is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between the A's and Mariners.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Guardians/Twins OVER 7.5

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 7.5 ticket between the Guardians and Twins today.  There will be 10 MPH winds blowing out to right-center for the entirety of this game.  Both of these starting pitchers are in over their heads today.

The Guardians are going through their best offensive stretch of the season scoring 3 runs or more in 18 of their last 21 games, and 4 runs or more in 15 of them.  The Twins have been a dead nuts OVER team all season going 82-63-5 OVER in all games scoring 4.6 runs per game and allowing 5.0 runs per game.  This total of 7.5 is too short with the wind blowing out.

Tanner Bibee is 5-15 with a 4.22 ERA in 30 starts this season, including 3-6 with a 4.36 ERA in 13 road starts.  He is a clear weak link in this Cleveland rotation.  Bibee has allowed 10 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings in his last two starts coming in.

Joe Ryan will be on a pitch count making his 2nd start back from injury.  He threw just 66 pitches while allowing 3 runs in 4 innings of a 5-4 loss to the Tigers in his last start on September 7th.  Ryan allowed a whopping 8 earned runs and 6 homers in 4 innings of a 13-4 loss to the Guardians in his last start against them on July 20th.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Padres/Giants MLB Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 7

There have been heavy winds blowing out in San Francisco all weekend and that will be the case again today.  The Giants and Padres combined for 12 runs in Game 1 and 13 runs in Game 2, and it should be another slug fest today with 20-25 MPH winds expected to be blowing out to center in Game 3.

The Giants have quietly been a dead nuts OVER team here down the stretch.  They have managed to score at least 5 runs in 13 of their last 17 games overall.  The Padres are also going through their best offensive stretch of the season.  They have scored at least 3 runs in 14 of their last 15 games overall, including 5 runs or more in four straight.

Nick Pivetta has been out since April due to injury.  He just returned on September 7th and was on a pitch count throwing just 63 pitches in 5 innings against the Nationals.  He will be on a pitch count again, and the Padres may not have their top relievers available, most notably closer Mason Miller who pitched the last two days in closing out close wins over the Giants.

Logan Webb is having one of the worst seasons of his career.  He is 8-8 with a 4.16 ERA in 26 starts this season.  Webb has allowed a whopping 17 earned runs in 16 2/3 innings in his last four starts for a 9.18 ERA.  Webb has not enjoyed facing the Padres, either, allowing 15 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts against them for a 8.27 ERA.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Reds/Brewers OVER 8

The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Brewers and Reds with 8 or more combined runs in all six meetings.  In fact, the Brewers and Reds have combined for at least 8 runs in 11 of their last 12 meetings.  They combined for 20, 20 and 22 runs in their last three meetings.  This total of 8 is too short today.

That's especially the case with Cincinnati ace Chase Burns being on a pitch count here down the stretch to preserve him in his first full season as a starter.  Burns only pitched 3 innings and threw 44 pitches in his last start against the Dodgers.  That puts a ton of pressure on this awful Cincinnati bullpen, which has a 4.89 ERA on the season and a 5.75 ERA on the road.

The Reds should be able to get to Robert Gasser, one of the weak links in this Milwaukee rotation.  Gasser is 4-5 with a 4.43 ERA in 17 starts and one relief appearance this season.  Gasser allowed 3 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of a 5-3 win over the Reds in his lone start against them this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Philadelphia Eagles -6

The Philadelphia Eagles have one of the best defenses in the NFL.  They allowed 19.3 points per game and 316.8 yards per game last season.  The locked up defensive tackles Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis with contracts, while also brining in edge rusher Jonathan Greenard.  They added CB Riq Woolen to an impressive secondary that features Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell.

There was a lot of negativity surrounding the offense last season and deservedly so.  Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown weren't on the same page, so they let Brown go in the offseason.  But they drafted a solid replacement in Makai Lemon out of USC.  And they still have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, a unit that was injured last year that contributed to their demise.  RB Saquon Barkley still has plenty left in the tank, too.  I love the hiring of 34-year-old Sean Mannion as offensive coordinator to open things up.

Few teams are in worse shape than the Washington Commanders coming into the season.  Jayden Daniels won Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2024.  That seems like ages ago now.  He went from 69% completions in '24 to 60.6% in '25, and his yards per carry dropped from 6.0 to 4.8.  He benefited a lot from Kliff Kingsbury as his offensive coordinator in '24, and now he'll havea. new coordinator in David Blough this season.

The problem is the Commanders have one of the worst offensive lines in football.  They are relying on aging players at the skill positions in McLaurin and Diggs, and RB Croskey-Merritt is already banged up coming into the season.  Daniels is also returning from an injury-plagued season as well.

The Commanders may be in even worse shape on the other side of the ball.  They allowed 26.5 points per game in 2025, and head coach Dan Quinn is relinquishing play-calling duties to new defensive coordinator Daronte Jones.  LB Dorance Armstrong is suspended to start the season, and the Commanders just don't have much talent at all three levels.

The best unit on the field will be Philadelphia's defense and it's not close.  I think the 2nd-best unit is this Philadelphia offense.  The Commanders are going to go through growing pains early in the season with two new coordinators.  Nick Sirianni is 5-0 in season-openers so he always has his guys ready to go in Week 1.  He should improve to 6-0 here with Philadelphia winning this opener by a TD or more.  Bet the Eagles Sunday.

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15* Cowboys/Giants NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on Dallas -3

The Dallas Cowboys had one of the best offenses in the NFL last season.  They scored 27.7 points per game, averaged 391.9 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  They are loaded again with QB Prescott, RB Williams, WR Lamb, WR Pickens and TE Ferguson all back behind a solid offensive line.  Now the Cowboys finally have a defense this season to compliment this offense.

The Micah Parsons traded opened up everything for the Cowboys.  Now they have two stud DE's in Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark.  They added another former Packer in LB Rashan Gary, and LB DeMarvion Overshown is healthy to start the season.  They used their first-round pick on S Caleb Downs, who was arguably the best defender in the draft.  They have a solid secondary with S Hooker and CB Bland to go along with Downs.  This should be the most improved defense in the NFL this season.

The Giants got a lot of headlines for hiring John Harbaugh.  But he may be past his prime and failed to live up to the lofty expectations in Baltimore.  The Ravens gave him a Top 5 roster year in and year out and he was only able to win one Super Bowl.  Now Harbaugh won't benefit from having a top GM like Baltimore did.  The Giants are much more of a mess due to the situation the GM put them in.

While there is talent on this young Giants' roster, it's going to take some time for Harbaugh to craft the team he wants.  It won't just automatically click in Week 1.  I have serious questions about the talent on offense.  QB Jaxson Dart and RB Cam Skattebo are injuries waiting to happen.  Speaking of injuries, WR Malik Nabers is questionable for this game, and he is far and away their most talented pass-catcher.  I rate Dallas' offense about 7 points better than New York's offense this season.

No question there is talent on this Giants' defense in the form of LB Burns, LB Reese and LB Carter.  But the Giants were pretty healthy defensively last season and were still terrible.  They allowed 25.8 points per game, 359.5 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play.  Most notably they gave up 145.3 yards per game and 5.3 per carry on the ground, and I think they will have trouble stopping the run again.  I also think the secondary is worse off this season than it was last.

A big reason for the Chiefs not living up to expectations in recent seasons was offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy leaving, and being replaced by Matt Nagy.  I just think the game has passed Nagy by.  One of the worst hires of the offseason was the Giants getting Nagy to be their offensive coordinator.  So the Giants are learning a new scheme, and a predictable scheme at that.  There will be growing pains for the offense in Week 1.  I expect the Cowboys to hit the ground running with the chemistry they have in place.

Dak Prescott is 37-10 SU & 32-15 ATS in his career against the NFC East, covering the spread by over 6 points per game.  That includes a 14-3 SU mark against the Giants in his career.  The Cowboys are 16-2 SU in their last 18 meetings with the Giants with one of those losses coming when they sat their starters early in Week 18 last year.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Falcons/Steelers UNDER 41.5

The Pittsburgh Steelers really profile as a dead nuts UNDER team.  They have a solid defense, but the offense is limited in what it can do with an aging Aaron Rodgers and a lack of playmakers outside DK Metcalf.  And Rodgers lost his favorite safety valve in RB Kenneth Gainwell in the offseason.

The Atlanta Falcons have an improved defense which made them more competitive last season.  But they are a mess on offense.  They expected either Tua or Penix to start for them, and both are below-average QB's in this league.  But both are hurt to start the season, meaning they will give the keys to 3rd-string QB Cooper Rush.

Rush was dealing with back spasms Saturday but is expected to be good to go.  Rush is a dead nuts UNDER QB who doesn't stretch the field and is a dink and dunk QB who tries to limit mistakes.  That's the perfect 'UNDER' QB.  I expect the Falcons to lean heavily on Bijan Robinson and the rushing attack early in the season until they get their QB situation figured out.

Both teams are learning new offenses early in the season with new head coach Mike McCarthy for the Steelers and new head coach Kevin Stefanski for the Falcons.  I think there will be growing pains for both offenses, and Stefanski is accustomed to trying to win with a limited offense dating back to his time in Cleveland.  He is more than happy to play in defensive battles, which is precisely what this will be.  

Defenses are ahead of offenses in Week 1 because of the shortened preseason.  In fact, UNDERS are now 44-22 in Week 1 over the past five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Bears/Panthers OVER 46.5

Head coach Ben Johnson said in training camp that he wants to have the highest-scoring offense in NFL history.  He knew it was the 2013 Broncos and how many points per game (37.9) they scored in the interview.  He said I want shootouts, I want blowouts.

Johnson has the offense that can put up big points with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, QB Caleb Williams, and emerging young receivers in Burden and Odunze.  He also has one of the best TE tandems in the NFL in Loveland and Kmet, plus a great 1-2 punch in the backfield in Swift and Monangai.  This offense should thrive in Year 2 under Johnson.

The Bears are going to have to try and win shootouts this season because I expect their defense to be one of the worst in the league.  The Bears gave up big yards last season, but they were bailed out time and time again by a defense that forced a NFL-leading 33 turnovers.  That's not going to happen again.  The Bears are going to give up big points and yards this season.

The Panthers made a subtle change in the offseason that is going to make them more potent offensively.  Head coach Dave Canales gave over play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Brad Idzik.  Both are set on playing with more tempo.  Carolina snapped the ball 100 times last season with one second or fewer on the play clock, the 5th-highest rate in the league and 3 times more than the year prior.  Working up against the play clock really hurt the offense last season.

Idzik made these comments in the media. "We have to press on our end the urgency of getting to the line of scrimmage, there’s a reason for it to try to get the defense to undress as fast as possible so we’re not up against the clock. That is definitely a huge trend that we keep track of. And we don’t want to be on the back end of snapping that thing with one second on the clock every time because that’ll be the O-lineman’s worst friend, when the defensive line knows, ‘OK, they either snap it now, or they’re a delay of game.’ (The defense) can roar off the ball. We want to stay ahead of the clock and continue to be in an attacking nature as much as we can.”

I like the pieces QB Bryce Young has to work with and should have a ton of chemistry in Year 3 with them.  But the defense is going to be a problem for the Panthers as it was last season as well.  There just isn't a ton of talent on this defense as a whole.  And they will be without starting LB Patrick Jones to start the season to boot, which kind of counters the fact that they brought in a solid LB in Devin Lloyd.

The forecast looks perfect for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no rain in Carolina.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.