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No. 1 Ranked Football Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has SEVEN Top-10 Football Finishes (#1 2024, #3 2018, #3 2017, #4 2009, #5 2014, #5 2012, #10 2008) to his credit! Jack has put together a MASSIVE 2006-1669 Football Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $169,100! That includes a 1328-1063 Football Run over his last 2391 plays! He backed it up by finishing as No. 1 Ranked Football Capper in 2024-25 with a 278-211 Football Record since the start of last season that has his $1,000/game players winning $43,500!
No. 2 Ranked College Football Capper All-Time! Jack has delivered SEVEN Top-7 CFB Finishes L13 Years (#1 2024, #2 2012, #3 2018, #3 2014, #5 2016, #6 2020, #7 2017) to really put a beating on the books on the NCAA gridiron! He is riding a 1127-916 CFB Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $124,600! That includes an EPIC 95-50 Bowl Run over the past handful of seasons! He finished as the No. 1 Ranked CFB Capper in 2024-25 this past season thanks to his HOT 135-92 CFB Run since last year!
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No. 2 Ranked Basketball Capper All-Time! Check the long-term results and you’ll see that Jack Jones has put together a MASSIVE 4674-4067 Hoops Run since 2012 that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in a WHOPPING $265,840! He has delivered NINE Top-8 Basketball Finishes L14 Years! (#1 2012-13, #2 2020-21, #2 2013-14, #3 2011-12, #4 2017-18, #5 2015-16, #5 2023-24, #7 2021-22, #4 2024-25)
SIX Top-8 College Basketball Finishes L14 Years! Jack Jones finished ranked as the #1 CBB Capper in 2013-14, #2 in 2011-12, #5 in 2020-21, #5 in 2012-13, #7 in 2015-16 & #8 in 2024-25! He has put together a 2072-1876 CBB Run long-term! That includes a 165-118 CBB Run since February 2nd to finish as the No. 8 Ranked CBB Capper in 2024-25 this past season!
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No. 2 Ranked Basketball Capper All-Time! Check the long-term results and you’ll see that Jack Jones has put together a MASSIVE 4674-4067 Hoops Run since 2012 that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in a WHOPPING $265,840! He has delivered NINE Top-8 Basketball Finishes L14 Years! (#1 2012-13, #2 2020-21, #2 2013-14, #3 2011-12, #4 2017-18, #5 2015-16, #5 2023-24, #7 2021-22, #4 2024-25)
No. 1 Ranked NBA Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has put together a 3025-2566 NBA Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $248,780! He is a 8-Time Top 10 NBA Capper (#1 2023-24, #1 2012-13, #2 2020-21, #3 2021-22, #3 2017-18, #8 2008-09, #10 2015-16, #10 2011-12) as well! He is also on a 1315-1072 NBA Run over the long haul! Jack finished as the No. 1 Ranked NBA Capper in 2023-24 thanks to his 532-437 NBA Run since the start of 2023!
SIX Top-8 College Basketball Finishes L14 Years! Jack Jones finished ranked as the #1 CBB Capper in 2013-14, #2 in 2011-12, #5 in 2020-21, #5 in 2012-13, #7 in 2015-16 & #8 in 2024-25! He has put together a 2072-1876 CBB Run long-term! That includes a 165-118 CBB Run since February 2nd to finish as the No. 8 Ranked CBB Capper in 2024-25 this past season!
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No. 2 Ranked Basketball Capper All-Time! Check the long-term results and you’ll see that Jack Jones has put together a MASSIVE 4674-4067 Hoops Run since 2012 that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in a WHOPPING $265,840! He has delivered NINE Top-8 Basketball Finishes L14 Years! (#1 2012-13, #2 2020-21, #2 2013-14, #3 2011-12, #4 2017-18, #5 2015-16, #5 2023-24, #7 2021-22, #4 2024-25)
No. 1 Ranked NBA Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has put together a 3025-2566 NBA Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $248,780! He is a 8-Time Top 10 NBA Capper (#1 2023-24, #1 2012-13, #2 2020-21, #3 2021-22, #3 2017-18, #8 2008-09, #10 2015-16, #10 2011-12) as well! He is also on a 1315-1072 NBA Run over the long haul! Jack finished as the No. 1 Ranked NBA Capper in 2023-24 thanks to his 532-437 NBA Run since the start of 2023!
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No. 1 Ranked Football Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has SEVEN Top-10 Football Finishes (#1 2024, #3 2018, #3 2017, #4 2009, #5 2014, #5 2012, #10 2008) to his credit! Jack has put together a MASSIVE 2006-1669 Football Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $169,100! That includes a 1328-1063 Football Run over his last 2391 plays! He backed it up by finishing as No. 1 Ranked Football Capper in 2024-25 with a 278-211 Football Record since the start of last season that has his $1,000/game players winning $43,500!
No. 2 Ranked College Football Capper All-Time! Jack has delivered SEVEN Top-7 CFB Finishes L13 Years (#1 2024, #2 2012, #3 2018, #3 2014, #5 2016, #6 2020, #7 2017) to really put a beating on the books on the NCAA gridiron! He is riding a 1127-916 CFB Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $124,600! That includes an EPIC 95-50 Bowl Run over the past handful of seasons! He finished as the No. 1 Ranked CFB Capper in 2024-25 this past season thanks to his HOT 135-92 CFB Run since last year!
No. 2 Ranked NFL Capper All-Time! Jack has SIX Top-10 NFL Finishes (#3 2009, #4 2023, #4 2017, #5 2024, #8 2019, #10 2008) to his credit! He is riding a 575-457 NFL Run that has his $1,000/game players winning $67,280! That includes a 302-227 NFL Run since November of 2021! He delivered an 81-56 NFL Record two seasons ago and finished as the No. 4 Ranked NFL Capper in 2023-24 as a result! He followed it up with an 87-66 NFL Record last season to finish as the No. 5 Ranked NFL Capper in 2024-25 as well!
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No. 1 Ranked Football Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has SEVEN Top-10 Football Finishes (#1 2024, #3 2018, #3 2017, #4 2009, #5 2014, #5 2012, #10 2008) to his credit! Jack has put together a MASSIVE 2006-1669 Football Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $169,100! That includes a 1328-1063 Football Run over his last 2391 plays! He backed it up by finishing as No. 1 Ranked Football Capper in 2024-25 with a 278-211 Football Record since the start of last season that has his $1,000/game players winning $43,500!
No. 2 Ranked NFL Capper All-Time! Jack has SIX Top-10 NFL Finishes (#3 2009, #4 2023, #4 2017, #5 2024, #8 2019, #10 2008) to his credit! He is riding a 575-457 NFL Run that has his $1,000/game players winning $67,280! That includes a 302-227 NFL Run since November of 2021! He delivered an 81-56 NFL Record two seasons ago and finished as the No. 4 Ranked NFL Capper in 2023-24 as a result! He followed it up with an 87-66 NFL Record last season to finish as the No. 5 Ranked NFL Capper in 2024-25 as well!
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
| Match Up | Pick | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Analysis | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weber State vs Utah | Weber State +15½ -108 | Premium | 89-92 | Win | 100 | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Weber State +15.5 Weber State returns three players who averaged at least 6.2 points per game last season. All three played big roles in their 130-38 dismantling of West Coast Baptist in the opener. Trevor Henning had 20 points, 7 rebounds and 4 assists, Nigel Burris had 14 points and 7 boards, and Viljami Vartiainen had 11 points and 4 assists. Newcomers Jace Whiting (19 points), David Hansen (15 points) and Bourgeoius Tshilobo (12 points, 6 boards) also played big roles. But this is more of a fade of Utah than anything. The Utes are coming off a lackluster 84-75 win as 12.5-point favorites against a rebuilding San Jose State team. Speaking of rebuilding, the Utes have a first-year head coach in Alex Jensen and lose all five starters from last year. The Utes have just two returning scholarship players. It's going to continue to be ugly for the Utes early in the season. Bet Weber State Saturday. | |||||||
| IU Indianapolis vs Butler | OVER 191 -108 | Premium | 80-112 | Win | 100 | Show | |
15* CBB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on IU Indy/Butler OVER 191 IU Indianapolis brought in West Liberty DII head coach Ben Howlett to try and turn around the program. At the very least, the Jaguars will be one of the most fun teams to watch in the country. He brings a brand of positionless basketball with him, running a player-driven motion offense and 40-minute pressure on defense. The goal is to play as fast as possible and speed the opponent up. West Liberty averaged over 100 points per game last season under Howlett. He brought three West Liberty transfers with him. The Jaguars are off to an eye-opening start, losing 118-102 to Ohio State for 220 combined points while sailing OVER the 171.5-point total by nearly 50 points. Oddsmakers are going to struggle to set their totals high enough in the early going, including tonight. IU Indy came back with a 94-90 loss to Long Island last time out in a game that really slowed down late due to poor shooting. It still finished with 184 combined points, and now the Jaguars take on a Butler team that is known for offense and no defense under Thad Matta. That was on display in a 88-58 win over putrid Southern Indiana in their opener. The Bulldogs scored 88 points despite not shooting it great. The Bulldogs were a dead nuts OVER team last season ranking 6th in the Big East in scoring but 11th in scoring defense. They were 4th in shooting percentage and 3rd in 3-point percentage in the league. They will relish this opportunity to pad the stat sheet against IU Indy today. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. | |||||||
| Providence vs Virginia Tech | Virginia Tech +2½ -110 | Top Premium | 101-107 | Win | 100 | Show | |
20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech +2.5 Virginia Tech will be one of the most improved teams in the country this season after a 13-19 campaign last year including 8-12 in ACC play. The Hokies return four starters in Tobi Lawal (12.4 PPG, 7.0 RP), Tyler Johnson (6.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG), Benn Hammond (5.6 PPG) and Jaden Shutt (7.7 PPG). They added in UNLV transfer Jailen Bedford, WVU transfer Amani Hansberry and a pair of talented freshmen in Christian Gurdak and Neoklis Avdalas. The Hokies easily covered as 18.5-point favorites in their opener beating Charleston Southern 98-67. Lawal led the way with 20 points and 12 rebounds and Hansberry had 19 points and 13 boards. Bedford had 13 points and 5 rebounds, while six other players had at least 6 points in the win. Kim English has been a major disappointment in his two seasons at Providence. He went 12-20 last season including 6-14 in Big East play. He may be in over his head here. The Friars lose four starters including their top three scorers in Hopkins (17 PPG), Joseph (13.2 PPG) and Pierre (12.3 PPG). The only returning starter is Corey Floyd Jr. (9.2 PPG). Providence opened with a lackluster 89-79 home win over Holy Cross a 23.5-point favorites, failing to cover the spread by 13.5 points. Wrong team favored here. Bet Virginia Tech Saturday. | |||||||
| Pacers vs Nuggets | Pacers +12 -110 | Premium | 100-117 | Loss | -110 | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +12 I love the spot for the Indiana Pacers tonight. They have had the last two days off, while the Denver Nuggets will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 129-104 home win over the Golden State Warriors who were without Steph Curry last night. This will also be the 4th game in 6 days for the Nuggets, who could decide to rest some guys tonight. That was their first win in their last four games by more than 10 points. They are laying too many points here given the spot. The Pacers are just 1-7 SU but 5-3 ATS this season and have been competitive in almost every game. Only two of their losses have come by more than 9 points this season. There's a chance they get Andrew Nembhard back from injury as he has been upgraded to questionable, which is a good sign he makes his return tonight. Bet the Pacers Saturday. | |||||||
| Lakers vs Hawks | Lakers -3 -108 | Top Premium | 102-122 | Loss | -108 | Show | |
20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Lakers -3 I love the spot for the Los Angeles Lakers tonight. The Lakers have had the last two days off, while the Atlanta Hawks will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 109-97 home loss to the Toronto Raptors in the NBA Cup last night. The Hawks are already without Trae Young so they are short-handed. All five starters played at least 30 minutes for the Hawks last night. There's a chance they decide to rest some guys here on the 2nd of a back-to-back. The Lakers are rolling right now going 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with their only loss coming on the 2nd of a back-to-back. Luka Doncic is playing at an MVP level, and JJ Redick is in the running for Coach of the Year honors with what he is doing with this team without LeBron James. Bet the Lakers Saturday. | |||||||
| Blazers vs Heat | Blazers -2½ -105 | Premium | 131-136 | Loss | -105 | Show | |
15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Portland Trail Blazers -2.5 I love the spot for the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. They have had the last two days off, while the Miami Heat will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back after a 126-108 win over the Charlotte Hornets, who were without three of their best players in Ball, Sexton and Miller. It will also be the 5th game in 7 days for the Heat, about as tough of a spot as it gets. Making matters worse for the Heat is they were already without their two best players in Herro and Adebayo, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them rest Norman Powell after he suffered an ankle injury last night. The Blazers will be playing just their 3rd game in 8 days, so they couldn't possibly be fresher. They are playing well too going 4-1 SU in their last five games overall including wins over the Thunder, Nuggets and Lakers. They are 6-2 ATS in all games this season and one of the most undervalued teams in the NBA. Bet the Blazers Saturday. | |||||||
| Air Force vs San Jose State | San Jose State -5½ -108 | Free | 26-16 | Loss | -108 | Show | |
Jack's Free Pick Saturday: San Jose State -5.5 I love the matchup for the San Jose State Spartans hosting the Air Force Falcons. The Spartans' offensive strength is the Falcons' biggest weakness defensively, while the Falcons' biggest offensive strength is the Spartans' biggest defensive strength. San Jose State ranks 6th in passing averaging 331.5 passing yards per game. Air Force ranks dead last allowing 7.5 yards per play so it is a bad defense overall, but particularly poor against the pass. The Falcons rank 130th allowing 281.5 passing yards per game and dead last (136th) allowing 10.3 yards per pass attempt! Air Force does have a great offense including ranking 4th in rushing at 270 yards per game and 22nd at 5.2 yards per carry. The Spartans are weak against the pass, but that won't come into play here. They have quietly been great against the run ranking 39th allowing 123.2 rushing yards per game and 42nd at 3.7 yards per carry. No question SJSU head coach Ken Niumatalolo has experience stopping the triple-option from his time at Navy, too. San Jose State has now passed for at least 334 yards in five consecutive games coming in including 473 against Stanford and 458 against Hawaii. The Falcons aren't going to get any stops here, and the Spartans should continue to pour on the points. The Falcons will get theirs too, but I trust this SJSU defense to at least get a few stops which will be the difference. Bet San Jose State Saturday. No. 1 Ranked Football Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has SEVEN Top-10 Football Finishes (#1 2024, #3 2018, #3 2017, #4 2009, #5 2014, #5 2012, #10 2008) to his credit! Jack has put together a MASSIVE 2064-1740 Football Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $148,520! That includes a 1386-1134 Football Run over his last 2520 plays! He backed it up by finishing as No. 1 Ranked Football Capper in 2024-25! No. 2 Ranked College Football Capper All-Time! Jack has delivered SEVEN Top-7 CFB Finishes L13 Years (#1 2024, #2 2012, #3 2018, #3 2014, #5 2016, #6 2020, #7 2017) to really put a beating on the books on the NCAA gridiron! He is riding a 1163-966 CFB Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $105,620! He finished as the No. 1 Ranked CFB Capper in 2024-25 this past season! Jack is coming off a 6-2 Friday! This money train stays right on track with Jack's Saturday College Football 15-Pack for $79.95! Leading the charge are FIVE 20* Top Plays! You'll receive 7 Totals in all as he adds to his 349-263 Run on football totals! Sign up and bet with confidence knowing you are GUARANTEED PROFITS or the next day of college football is ON JACK! | |||||||
| Duke vs Connecticut | OVER 63½ -108 | Premium | 34-37 | Win | 100 | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Duke/UConn OVER 63.5 Both Duke and UConn are dead nuts OVER teams that are all offense and no defense. Both have two of the best QB's in the country, and both of those QB's should shred these suspect defenses today. Duke ranks 33rd in tempo snapping the ball every 24.7 seconds. The Blue Devils rank 25th in scoring at 35.4 points per game, 22nd in total offense at 460.2 yards per game and 15th at 6.9 yards per play. QB Darian Mensah is completing 69.7% of his passes for 2,572 yards with a 21-to-2 TD/INT ratio. UConn is scoring 36.9 points per game while ranking 26th in total offense at 455.6 yards per game and 19th at 6.7 yards per play. Joe Fagnano is one of the most underrated QB's in the country, completing 68.8% of his passes for 2,529 yards with a 22-to-0 TD/INT ratio. Duke's defense ranks 109th allowing 6.1 yards per play. UConn's defense ranks 94th allowing 391.7 yards per game. Duke is 6-2 OVER this season finishing with 61 or more combined points in six of its eight games. The Blue Devils are coming off a 46-45 shootout win over Clemson for 91 combined points. UConn is 6-3 OVER in its nine games this season finishing with 61 or more combined points six times. The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 50's, single-digit winds and no chance of precipitation. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. | |||||||
| Kansas vs Arizona | OVER 57 -110 | Premium | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | Show | |
15* Kansas/Arizona ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on OVER 57 Kansas is a dead nuts OVER team going 5-2 OVER in its last seven games overall while finishing with 59 or more combined points in five of those seven games. Arizona is 3-0 OVER in its last three games finishing with 59 or more combined points in all three games. This total of 57 is too short for a game involving these two teams right now. Kansas ranks 51st in scoring at 31.3 points per game and 46th at 6.1 yards per play on offense. Arizona averages 34.1 points per game and 6.1 yards per play. These are two elite offenses that will have their way with two suspect defenses. Arizona has allowed 31 or more points in three of its last five games with the only exceptions being against two of the worst teams in the Big 12 in Colorado and Oklahoma State. Kansas has allowed 37 or more points in four of its last seven games with the only exceptions being against three of the worst teams in the Big 12 in Oklahoma State, UCF and WVU. Both QB's are lighting it up this season. Kansas' Jalon Daniels has a 20-to-3 TD/INT ratio on the season, while Noah Fifita has a 21-to-4 TD/INT ratio. The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 80's, no wind and no precipitation. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. | |||||||
| BYU vs Texas Tech | Texas Tech -10 -108 | Premium | 7-29 | Win | 100 | Show | |
15* BYU/Texas Tech ABC Early ANNIHILATOR on Texas Tech -10 Texas Tech is a real contender while BYU is a fraud. That will play out this week as Texas Tech buries BYU to hand the Cougars their first loss of the season. College Game Day will be in Lubbock and it will be one of the best home-field advantages of the season for any team. BYU is one of the most fraudulent teams in the country. The Cougars are nowhere near as good as their 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS record would indicate. They are 3-0 in coin flip games beating Colorado by 3, Utah by 3 and Arizona in OT. This is where their luck runs out. BYU got lucky to recover its own fumble to force OT against Arizona before winning. BYU had no business beating Utah when you look at the numbers. The Utes has 470 total yards while the Cougars had just 368 total yards, outgaining them by 102 yards. It was just another example of just how fortunate they have been this season to remain unbeaten. Then last time out, the Cougars trailed the Cyclones by double-digits before one of the worst INT's I've ever seen turned that game around. The Cougars had a pick-6 later on in the game that also changed the tide. BYU won by 14 despite giving up 495 total yards to Iowa State and getting outgained by 85 yards. They were +3 in turnovers. Texas Tech is the most complete team they will have faced yet. The Red Raiders are 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS this season with their only loss coming on the road in the final seconds against what was at the time a healthy Arizona State team, 26-22. The Red Raiders have blown out everyone else as their eight wins have all come by 23 points or more. That includes road wins over Utah by 24, Houston by 24 and Kansas state by 23. The Red Raiders are 5-0 at home this season scoring 51.6 points per game and allowing 10.4 points per game, outscoring opponents by 41.2 points per game. Their numbers are elite. They are 4th in scoring offense at 43.6 points per game, 10th in total offense at 492.3 yards per game and 20th at 6.7 yards per play. They are 5th in scoring defense allowing 13.2 points per game, 9th in total defense at 271.3 yards per game and 6th at 4.1 yards per play. They are outscoring opponents by 28 points per game and outgaining them by 221 yards per game and 2.6 yards per play. BYU averages 433.4 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play on offense and allows 318.2 yards per game and 4.9 per play on defense. The Cougars are outgaining opponents by 115 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play. While impressive, it's a far cry from what Texas Tech is doing. BYU needs to be able to run the football to be successful on offense because their passing game is below average. They are 17th in rushing offense but just 88th in passing offense. Well, they haven't faced a run defense like Texas Tech, which will load the box and stop the run. The Red Raiders rank 1st in the country allowing just 74.6 rushing yards per game and 2nd at 2.4 yards per carry. This is just a complete mismatch. Bet Texas Tech Saturday. | |||||||
| Nebraska vs UCLA | UCLA +100 | Premium | 28-21 | Loss | -100 | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on UCLA ML +100 Nebraska just had its hopes of making the 12-team playoff come to an end last week with a 21-17 home loss to USC. The Huskers also lost star QB Dylan Raiola to a season-ending injury in the process. I think there will be a hangover effect from that dream-crushing loss, and the Huskers will suffer a big drop off in QB play to the backup. Nebraska is a tired team as it is playing for a 6th consecutive week here. The injuries are starting to mount up everywhere. The Huskers were last seen on the road getting upset 24-6 at Minnesota. That loss looks even worse now after Minnesota went on to get blown out by everyone, including a 41-3 loss to Iowa. This will only be the 3rd true road game for the Huskers this season. They also escaped with a 3-point win at fraud Maryland. UCLA is in the much better spot. The Bruins are coming off their bye week and they have shown they will play hard for their interim head coach. They went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS against Penn State, Michigan State and Maryland before getting blasted at Indiana in their final game going into their bye week. Everyone is getting blasted by Indiana, so I'm willing to throw that result out. UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava is completing 63.2% of his passes with 10 TD passes while also rushing for 388 yards and 4 scores. He is the much better QB in this matchup, and he will lead his team to a victory here against a tired, deflated Nebraska team with a backup QB. Bet UCLA on the Money Line Saturday. | |||||||
| Texas A&M vs Missouri | Missouri +7 -110 | Premium | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | Show | |
15* Texas A&M/Missouri ABC ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +7 It's time to 'sell high' on Texas A&M after a 8-0 start to the season. The Aggies are ranked 3rd in the playoff ranking, and with that ranking and record comes expectations from oddsmakers that are very difficult to live up to. The Aggies should not be 7-point road favorites over the Missouri Tigers in this one. Missouri is 6-2 this season with its only two losses coming by 3 to Alabama at home and by 7 to Vanderbilt on the road. The Tigers actually outgained the Crimson Tide and they outgained the Commodores by 111 yards. They could easily be 8-0, too. This line has been adjusted too much for the loss of QB Beau Pribula. I like what I saw from backup QB Matt Zollers, who took over for Pribula against Vanderbilt. He went 14-of-23 passing for 138 yards and a TD in relief. Now Zollers has had two full weeks to get ready to face Texas A&M as the Tigers are coming off their bye week. There really isn't a big difference between these teams when you look at the numbers. Texas A&M averages 459.2 yards per game and 6.7 per play on offense while allowing 321.5 yards per game and 5.1 per play on defense. The Aggies outgain their opponents by 138 yards per game and 1.6 yards per play. Missouri averages 473.4 yards per game and 6.1 per play on offense and allows 245.6 yards per game and 4.4 per play on defense. The Tigers actually have better numbers, outgaining opponents by 228 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play. This is the Tigers' last stand if they want to make the 12-team playoff as a win over Texas A&M would go a long way in helping them. Bet Missouri Saturday. | |||||||
| SMU vs Boston College | Boston College +10½ -108 | Premium | 45-13 | Loss | -108 | Show | |
15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Boston College +10.5 This is the Red Bandana game for Boston College. It's a game that the Eagles get up for every year, so I'm not concerned about a letdown from them after playing Louisville and Notre Dame the last two weeks. The Eagles will relish this opportunity to try and knock off SMU, which made the 12-team playoff last year. The Eagles are as healthy as they have been all season, and that return to health is a big reason they gave two playoff contenders in Louisville and Notre Dame bigger fights than they bargained for. They only lost by 14 at Louisville as 26-point dogs and by 15 at home to Notre Dame as 31-point dogs. This is a big step down in class against overrated SMU. This is also a very tough spot for SMU. After traveling clear out East in a 13-12 loss to Wake Forest two weeks ago, the Mustangs returned home and pulled the 26-20 (OT) upset win as 10-point dogs against Miami. They tore the goalposts down and celebrated like they won the National Championship. Now the Mustangs are in a letdown spot off that win and with Louisville on deck next week, making this a big sandwich spot. They won't be motivated at all to beat Boston College, and now they will be extremely tired having to travel clear back out East this week. They will be playing for a 6th consecutive week and won't have much left in the tank. SMU just has not been impressive on the road this season. They were in a dog fight with Missouri State as a 28.5-point favorite, not coming close to sniffing the cover. They lost by 11 at TCU and were upset by Wake Forest. Their win over Clemson comes with an asterisk because Clemson was without starting QB Cade Klubnik due to injury. I wouldn't be surprised to see them lose this game outright against a BC team that will be more motivated than they will. Bet Boston College Saturday. | |||||||
| Oregon vs Iowa | Iowa +6½ -108 | Top Premium | 18-16 | Win | 100 | Show | |
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Iowa +6.5 The forecast will favor the Iowa Hawkeyes Saturday. Temps will be around 40 with over a 50% chance of rain throughout the game including a 100% chance in the beginning. That will chew up the field and help slow down the speed of the Oregon Ducks. The Hawkeyes have them right where they want them this week given the forecast. We saw Oregon struggle with similar weather last time out only winning 21-7 at home against Wisconsin as 31-point favorites. That's the same Wisconsin team that Iowa blasted 37-0 on the road a few weeks ago as part of a great run for the Hawkeyes. Indeed, Iowa is 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall beating Minnesota 41-3 as 7.5-point home favorites, beating Penn State 25-24, winning at Rutgers 38-28 as 2-point favorites and crushing UMass 47-7 as 35-point home favorites. But perhaps the most impressive performance was the loss. Iowa only lost 20-15 as 9-point home dogs to Indiana, the same Indiana team that went into Oregon and won 30-20 and dominated the Ducks. Iowa came closer to beating Indiana than any team has all season, and that was also a home game. Iowa is 21-2 SU in its last 23 November games and 17-3 SU at Kinnick Stadium in November since 2015. Iowa City is one of the best home-field advantages in the country, and it will be a very tough atmosphere for the Ducks here. Bet Iowa Saturday. | |||||||
| LSU vs Alabama | Alabama -9 -110 | Top Premium | 9-20 | Win | 100 | Show | |
20* LSU/Alabama ABC No-Brainer on Alabama -9 LSU is one of the most overrated teams in the country. Not even firing Brian Kelly will save them as they are a program in shambles right now. The Tigers have lost all their step up games to Vanderbilt and Ole Miss and a 49-25 blowout home loss to Texas A&M last time out. It won't get any easier for them this week against Alabama. The Crimson Tide have been on a mission since losing to Florida State in the opener. They have delivered going 7-0 SU with road wins over Georgia, Missouri and South Carolina, as well as home wins over Tennessee by 17, Vanderbilt by 16 and Wisconsin by 24. The Crimson Tide have been dominant at home this season going 4-0 ATS, and they will have a huge home-field advantage for this rivalry game at night in Tuscaloosa. LSU remains without its defensive leader this week in LB Whit Weeks. This defense has been shredded without him allowing 31 points and 399 yards to Vanderbilt and 49 points and 426 yards to Texas A&M. You can just imagine what this Alabama offense is going to do to them this week. Ty Simpson has a 20-to-1 TD/INT ratio and is among the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy. You would be hard-pressed to find a better QB in the country than Simpson. Alabama is 12-2 SU & 9-5 ATS in its last 14 meetings with LSU. That includes a 42-13 road win last season as 3-point favorites and a 42-28 home win the year prior as 3-point favorites. The Crimson Tide will win this game by double-digits. Bet Alabama Saturday. | |||||||
| Iowa State vs TCU | OVER 56½ -115 | Premium | 20-17 | Loss | -115 | Show | |
15* Big 12 Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Iowa State/TCU OVER 56.5 Iowa State's defense is decimated with injuries, but the Cyclones still have one of the better offenses in the Big 12. Their current status has them as a dead nuts OVER team right now, and that has played out in recent weeks. The Cyclones went for 68 combined points with Cincinnati in a 38-30 loss and 68 combined points with BYU in a 41-27 loss. Maybe even more concerning was the fact that they gave up 467 total yards to an Arizona State team last week that was playing without its starting QB (Leavitt) and arguably the best WR in the country (Tyson). Now the Cyclones have to go up against a TCU offense that is one of the best in the country, and also a TCU offense that has had two weeks to prepare to take advantage of their defense that is missing three of its top cornerbacks in the secondary. Expect a pass-happy approach. The Horned Frogs rank 27th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.4 seconds and I wouldn't be surprised to see them ramp it up even more this week to try and take advantage of this depleted ISU defense. TCU ranks 31st in scoring at 34.6 points per game and 34th averaging 6.2 yards per play. Josh Hoover has thrown for 2,371 yards at 8.3 per attempt with a 22-to-6 TD/INT ratio. This Iowa State offense is still nearly fully healthy and can keep up with TCU in a shootout. The Cyclones average 408.1 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play despite facing a tough schedule of opposing defenses. Rocco Becht has thrown for 2,119 yards while averaging 7.8 per attempt and accounting for 19 total TD's. The OVER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Iowa State and TCU finishing with 76, 62, 71 and 73 combined points in the four overs. This total of 56.5 is pretty short given the state of Iowa State's defense right now. The forecast looks great for a shootout as well with temps in the 80's, only 5 MPH winds and no chance of precipitation. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. | |||||||
| Georgia vs Mississippi State | Mississippi State +9½ -108 | Premium | 41-21 | Loss | -108 | Show | |
15* Georgia/Mississippi State ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Mississippi State +9.5 Mississippi State has been undervalued all season going 8-1 ATS in its nine games. The only non-cover came on the road to Texas A&M in what was a 7-3 game late in the 3rd quarter. What they've done at home has been the most impressive upsetting Arizona State, and taking both Tennessee and Texas to OT. Getting more than a TD here with Mississippi State at home against Georgia is a great value. Georgia has been lucky to escape with wins in its three road games. They needed a late TD and 2-point conversion to force OT against Tennessee, winning 44-41. They needed help from the refs to beat Auburn 20-10, tacking on a TD int the final seconds to get the cover. And last week they struggled to get by Florida 24-20 on a neutral as 7-point favorites taking advantage of a injury-depleted Gators team with an interim head coach. Their luck may run out this week. If you don't count the late TD they tacked on against Auburn, Georgia would have played in five one-score games in their six SEC games this season. The fact of the matter is the Bulldogs just aren't as dominant anymore and don't have a stranglehold on the SEC. A team like Mississippi State can hang with them as they have proven that against similar opponents all season. There just isn't that much difference between these teams statistically. Georgia averages 5.9 yards per play on offense and allows 5.0 per play on defense, while Mississippi State averages 5.8 yards per play on offense and allows 5.4 per play on defense. Georgia is only 0.5 yards per play better than Mississippi State. Asking the Bulldogs to go on the road and win this game by double-digits to beat us is asking too much. Bet Mississippi State Saturday. | |||||||
| Florida vs Kentucky | Kentucky +3 -105 | Top Premium | 7-38 | Win | 100 | Show | |
20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Kentucky +3 Florida had its 'all in' performance last week in a 24-20 loss to Georgia in their biggest rivalry. It was their first game with an interim head coach since firing Billy Napier. Now I expect the Gators to fall flat on their faces this week as they won't be nearly as motivated to beat Kentucky as they were to beat Georgia. Most of these players are just ready for this season to be over. The Gators will be without two of their best receivers for this game so their offense will continue to struggle. Both Eugene Wilson III and Dallas Wilson are out, and 13 players in all are listed as out for this one. The Gators rank 107th in scoring offense at 22.1 points per game this season. Kentucky has put up great numbers in three consecutive weeks. The Wildcats were finally rewarded with a 10-3 win as 11-point road dogs at Auburn last week. They held the Tigers to just 241 total yards on 71 plays in the win. That followed up two straight misleading losses that have the Wildcats undervalued. They lost 16-13 to Texas despite outgaining the Longhorns 395 to 179, or by 216 total yards. They lost 56-34 to Tennessee two weeks ago despite only getting outgained by 28 yards. This is a game the Wildcats know they can win as well and I fully expect them to take advantage. They take this rivalry much more seriously than Florida does, going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings. Sitting at 3-5 on the season, the Wildcats have a great chance to still make a bowl game if they win this game because they have Tennessee Tech on deck next week. They are much more concerned with making a bowl game than Florida is at this point. Bet Kentucky Saturday. | |||||||
| Georgia State vs Coastal Carolina | OVER 57½ -115 | Premium | 27-40 | Win | 100 | Show | |
15* Sun Belt Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Georgia State/Coastal Carolina OVER 57.5 Two dead nuts OVER teams square off Saturday when Georgia State takes on Coastal Carolina in a Sun Belt showdown. Georgia State is 3-0 OVER in its last three games overall finishing with 69, 65 and 61 combined points. Coastal Carolina is 2-0 OVER in its last two games finishing with 71 and 82 combined points. Coastal Carolina ranks 37th in tempo snapping the ball every 24.9 seconds. The Chanticleers have really turned it up offensively in their last two games putting up 45 points on Appalachian State and 44 on Marshall. Georgia State also plays faster than average ranking 57th in tempo snapping it every 25.9 seconds. The Panthers have been playing much better offensively here down the stretch putting up 20 points and 381 yards on App State, 24 points and 444 yards on Georgia Southern and 31 points and 440 yards on South Alabama in its last three games coming in. The switch to QB Cam Brown has made the difference. He has a 12-to-1 TD/INT ratio while also rushing for 275 yards and 3 scores. Both offenses should have their way against two of the worst defenses in the country. Georgia State ranks 135th out of 136 teams allowing 40.8 points per game, 123rd in total defense at 452.6 yards per game and 127th at 6.5 yards per play. Coastal Carolina ranks 95th in scoring defense at 28.1 points per game and 104th in total defense at 412.5 yards per game. Both are dreadful against the run with Coastal ranking 122nd allowing 192.6 rushing yards per game and Georgia State at 130th allowing 205 rushing yards per game. The OVER is 3-1 in the last four meetings finishing with 75, 65 and 82 points on the three OVERS. The 75-point effort came last year. The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, 5 MPH winds and no precipitation. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. | |||||||
| Tulsa vs Florida Atlantic | OVER 64 -110 | Premium | 21-40 | Loss | -110 | Show | |
15* AAC Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Tulsa/FAU OVER 64 Two dead nuts OVER teams square off in this AAC showdown Saturday in what should be one of the highest-scoring games of the weekend. Florida Atlantic ranks 1st in tempo snapping the ball every 20.8 seconds while Tulsa ranks 5th snapping it every 21.8 seconds. So this is a matchup of two Top 5 tempo teams and there should be a ton of possessions and more chances for points as a result. Tulsa lost 41-27 for 68 combined points against East Carolina and 38-37 to Temple for 75 points in its last two games coming in. FAU is 5-2 OVER in its last seven games overall going for 70 combined points with Florida A&M, 71 with Memphis, 86 with Rice, 66 with FIU and 74 with Navy. This total of 64 isn't that high for a game involving these two teams. Both defenses are a disaster. FAU ranks 131st in scoring defense allowing 36.2 points per game and 102nd allowing 6.0 yards per play. Tulsa ranks 101st in scoring defense allowing 29.6 points per game and 107th in total defense allowing 415.5 yards per play. Both offenses should have their way with these two suspect defenses that will get worn down in the 2H due to the pace of both offenses. The forecast will also wear down both defenses. Temps will be in the 80's with single-digit wins and only a 5% chance of precipitation, so the conditions look great for a shootout. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. | |||||||
| James Madison vs Marshall | OVER 54½ -115 | Top Premium | 35-23 | Win | 100 | Show | |
20* Sun Belt TOTAL OF THE MONTH on James Madison/Marshall OVER 54.5 At 7-1 on the season with its only loss on the road to Louisville, James Madison is very much in the running to make the 12-team playoff. But the Dukes know they need style points while also winning out, and that has been evident in recent games. James Madison beat Old Dominion 63-27 for 90 combined points two weeks ago and crushed Texas State 52-20 for 72 combined points last week. The Dukes put up 624 total yards on a very good Old Dominion defense and another 511 total yards on Texas State last week. They keep scoring late into the 4th quarter and keep piling on the points, and they will do the same if they get a chance against Marshall this week, which is why I like the OVER. Marshall is a great OVER opponent as well. The Thundering Herd are 5-0 OVER in their last five games overall combining for 70 or more points in all five games. They went for 70 with Middle Tennessee, 105 with Louisiana, 72 with Old Dominion, 77 with Texas State and 71 with Coastal Carolina. Marshall has one of the better QB's in the country that nobody knows about in dual-threat Carlos Del Rio-Wilson. He is completing 70.7% of his passes with a 13-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 418 yards and 4 scores. But this is a very poor Marshall defense, one that ranks 112th in scoring at 32.5 points per game, 131st at 413.1 yards per game and 118th at 6.2 yards per play. James Madison will get 40-plus here, and I trust Del Rio-Wilson and company to do enough to get us this OVER with ease. The weather looks great for a shootout with temps in the 60's, only 5 MPH wind and no chance of precipitation. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. | |||||||
| Charlotte vs East Carolina | OVER 56½ -108 | Top Premium | 22-48 | Win | 100 | Show | |
20* AAC TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Charlotte/ECU OVER 56.5 East Carolina is a dead nuts OVER team due to ranking 7th in the country in tempo snapping the ball every 22.4 seconds. The Pirates won 41-27 against Tulsa for 68 combined points and 45-14 over Temple for 59 combined points in their last two games. The Pirates are hitting on all cylinders offensively going for 41 points and 568 total yards against Tulsa and 45 points and 614 total yards against a decent Temple defense in tough weather conditions last week. You can just imagine what they are going to do to this piss poor Charlotte defense this week. The 49ers rank 133rd out of 136 teams in scoring defense at 37.2 points per game, 135th at 477.9 yards per game and 132nd at 6.7 yards per play. They are yielded 54 to North Texas, 49 to Temple and 54 to USF in three of their last four games coming in. They went for 74 combined points with UNT, 63 with Temple and 80 with USF. They are 5-1 OVER in their last six games overall due to their poor defense. Charlotte will do enough offensively to contribute to this total as they will keep coming late in the game no matter the score, which they have shown. The forecast looks great for a shootout with temps in the 70's, no wind and no chance of precipitation. Bet the OVER in this game Saturday. | |||||||
PICKS IN PROGRESS
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on VMI +24.5
VMI is loaded this season with four returning starters from a team that went 15-19 last season. They improved by 11 wins last season and now have one of the most experienced rosters in the country. They return nine players who scored at least 3.5 points per game last season. Five returning players combined to make more than 200 3-point shots last season.
VMI opened with a 122-58 win over Johnson & Wales Charlotte. Eight players scored at least 9 points in the win. They came back with a 78-74 road win at Southern Indiana as 2.5-point favorites. TJ Johnson went off for 32 points to lead the way and is averaging 25.5 points per game through two games this season.
While I'm high on VMI early in the season, I'm low on the Missouri Tigers. They have been far from impressive thus far beating Howard 88-67 as 19.5-point favorites barely covering despite shooting 55.7% from the field. They didn't even come close to covering as 25.5-point favorites against SE Missouri State in a 89-84 win despite shooting 59.3% from the field. They committed 19 turnovers and allowed SEMO to shoot 46%. They remain sloppy with the basketball and a leaky defense again this season. Bet VMI Sunday.
20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Bears -4
I love the spot for the Chicago Bears this week. They are back home after consecutive road games against the Ravens and Bengals and taking a step down in class here against the Giants. They have played five of their first eight games on the road. They are 2-1 SU & 2-1 ATS at home this season with their lone loss coming back in Week 1 against the Vikings after blowing a double-digit 4th quarter lead. They have since beaten the Cowboys by 17 and the Saints by 12 at home.
While the Bears are the fresher, healthier team after already having their bye week, the Giants will be playing for a 10th consecutive week and are running on fumes right now. They are losing bodies left and right and are one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL. This is much more of a play against the Giants than it is a play on the Bears.
The Giants haven't recovered from blowing a 19-0 lead over the Broncos to lose in the 4th quarter. They came back and lost 38-20 on the road to the Eagles before falling 34-24 to an equally injury-ravaged 49ers team at home last week. Their defense is in shambles, allowing an average of 35 points per game in their last three games.
It's easy to see why as the Giants are without CB Paulson Adebo, LB Chauncey Golston, and several other key depth pieces. The offense isn't any healthier. The Giants will be without WR Malik Nabers, WR Beaux Collins, RB Cam Skattebo, C John Michael Schmitz Jr and K Graham Gano. They could also be without RT Jermain Eluemunor, who is questionable.
The Giants are 0-5 SU on the road this season. The Bears are basically fully healthy on offense, and while they are missing four starters on defense in all, they are still in much better shape than the Giants. I look for them to make easy work of them here.
The forecast is calling for temps in the 30's, 25 MPH sustained winds and a sloppy field. The team that runs the football better is going to have the advantage, and that is the Bears. They will have their full compliment of RB's available and have the much better run-blocking O-Line and play-caller in Ben Johnson. This is where the Giants will really miss Skattebo getting those tough yards.
The Giants rank 19th averaging 4.2 yards per carry while the Bears rank 2nd overall in rushing at 144.4 yards per game and 6th at 4.9 yards per rush. The biggest weakness of the Giants is stopping the run. They rank 32nd allowing 150 rushing yards per game and 32nd allowing 5.5 yards per carry. They have allowed an average of 192.3 rushing yards per game in their last three games. Bet the Bears Sunday.
15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Detroit Lions -8
I love the spot for the Detroit Lions this week. The Lions are a perfect 12-0 SU & 12-0 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss. They will be extra motivated this week for revenge after losing to the Commanders in the playoffs last year. Detroit is 20-5 SU & 19-6 ATS since 2023 when revenging a defeat. The Lions won't mind kicking the Commanders while they are down this week.
And boy are the Commanders down in the dumps. They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall getting upset by the Bears at home, losing by 22 in Dallas, losing by 21 in Kansas City and losing by 24 at home to Seattle last week. Head coach Dan Quinn leaving Jayden Daniels in to suffer an injury late in a blowout to Seattle might have been the final straw.
The Commanders are a tired, injury-ravaged team that will be playing for a 10th consecutive week as they have yet to have their bye week. They are also without their best WR in Terry McClaurin and two more WR's in Noah Brown and Luke McCaffrey on offense, giving Marcus Mariota almost no shot of being successful on offense.
The defense is one of the oldest units in the league and extremely slow. That defense is missing four pass-rushers who are on IR right now in Armstrong, Wise Jr., Jackson and Jean-Baptiste. It is also down a starting CB in Marshon Lattimore, while FS Quan Martin, backup FS Tyler Owens and DT Eddie Goldman are all questionable. The Commanders are a complete mash unit right now everywhere, giving them little to no chance of keeping this game competitive.
The Lions are coming off a misleading 27-24 loss to the Minnesota Vikings last week. They held the Vikings to just 258 total yards a week after holding the Bucs to 251 total yards in a 24-9 win. The problem was losing starting tackles Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell to injuries during that game that had their offense unable to handle Minnesota's blitz-happy scheme.
Well, the Lions got good news on the injury front as both Decker and Sewell practiced this week and should be good to go. This Washington defense isn't capable of creating the kind of pressure that Minnesota did, and Jared Goff should have a clean pocket to pick it apart. The Commanders rank 22nd in scoring defense at 26.2 points per game, 28th in total defense at 377.8 yards per game and 30th at 6.4 yards per play.
Opponents have torched the Commanders for 33.8 points per game and 410 yards per game during their current four-game winning streak. You can just imagine what this high-powered Lions offense is going to do to them this week. The Lions are 2nd in scoring offense at 29.9 points per game and should get whatever they want. Detroit also has one of the most improved defenses in the NFL. They rank 8th in total defense at 294.8 yards per game and 8th at 5.3 yards per play. Detroit just had a bye two weeks ago and is the much fresher, healthier, better team. Bet the Lions Sunday.
15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Tampa Bay Bucs -2.5
I love the spot for the Tampa Bay Bucs. They are coming off a much-needed bye week to get healthier. They worked wonders to get to 6-2 this season as Baker Mayfield made his case for MVP by leading several game-winning drives. And now they come out of the bye much healthier and ready to knock off the New England Patriots.
The Patriots are running on fumes right now playing for a 10th consecutive week as they have yet to have their bye. They were fortunate to escape with a 24-23 home win over the Falcons last week after a missed XP by Atlanta late. Their luck runs out this week. They have benefited from playing the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point.
A tired New England team will now have to battle the heat in Tampa Bay with temps in the 80's for this one. Injuries are starting to mount up too as they will be without leading rusher Rhamondre Stevenson (279 yards, 3 TD) and leading TD receiver Kayshon Boutte (431 yards, 5 TD). They will also be without second-leading tackler Christian Ellis (53 tackles).
The Bucks have been without RT Luke Goedeke and RG Luke Haggard. Both returned to practice this week and both could return, which would give them their entire starting offensive line back. The bye week was good for Emeka Egbuka (34 receptions, 562 yards, 5 TD) as well as he was battling a hamstring injury the last few games going into it. And this Tampa Bay defense will be as healthy as it has been all season this week.
Teams who are off a bye against a team that hasn't had their bye week yet are 6-0 SU this season with all six wins coming by 9 points or more. Baker Mayfield is 4-0 SU as a favorite off a bye in his career. The Patriots have won 6 consecutive games, and teams on a 6-plus game winning streak in Week 10 or later when listed as an underdog are 28-42-1 ATS. The Bucs are favored for good reason and should be favored by more given the favorable spot for them. Bet the Bucs Sunday.
20* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Patriots/Bucs OVER 47.5
This game really sets up for an OVER. We have two of the top MVP candidates at QB in Baker Mayfield and Drake Maye up against two poor pass defenses. And both defenses are elite against the run, so I don't expect either offense to try to run the football much. The ball will be in the air a lot, which favors the OVER.
Maye leads a Patriots offense that ranks 7th in scoring at 26.3 points per game and 5th at 6.1 yards per play. He is completing 74.1% of his passes for 2,285 yards with a 17-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 270 yards and two scores on the ground. He'll be up against a Bucs defense that ranks 22nd against the pass.
Mayfield leads a Bucs offense that ranks 15th in scoring at 24.6 points per game. He is completing 63.9% of his passes for 1,919 yards with a 13-to-2 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 158 yards. He is back healthy now and wasn't running as much leading into a much-needed bye last week. He should use his legs more moving forward, which is a big weapon of his to move the chains. He'll be up against a Patriots defense that ranks 19th against the pass and 25th allowing 7.0 per attempt.
The Bucks will be without LB Haason Reddick and his backup in Markees Watts. They were already without Calijah Kancey and really lack a pass rush right now. The Patriots lost LB Christian Elliss to injury last week and he is out for this one. I expect both offenses to have their way with these defenses, especially given the forecast.
Temps will be in the 80's with single-digit winds and only a 25% chance of rain. The OVER is 3-0 in Bucs three home games this season finishing with 49, 56 and 56 combined points. The Patriots are 3-0 OVER in their last three games overall. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.
15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Carolina Panthers -5.5
The Panthers are one of the most improved teams in the NFL this season going 5-4 despite being an underdog in all nine games. Oddsmakers continue to not adjust enough for how improved this team is, and you're going to hear a lot about how they can't cover as a favorite this week. But these aren't your old Panthers.
Carolina is favored by 5.5 points for good reason this week as I fully expect them to win by a TD or more. The Panthers are facing arguably the worst team in the NFL in their current state in the New Orleans Saints, who pretty much showed they were giving up on their season by trading away two of their best players at the trade deadline in LT Trevor Penning to the Chargers and WR Rasheed Shaheed to the Seahawks.
The Saints are 1-8 this season and have rarely been competitive here of late. Five of their last six losses have come by double-digits, so they are getting blown out on the regular. They are a tired team playing for a 10th consecutive week, and they will now have a lot of travel in between their 34-10 loss in Los Angeles to the Rams over the weekend. They were outgained 438 to 224 by the Rams, or by 214 total yards.
Tyler Shough made his first career start against the Rams and was terrible, and he's a downgrade from Spencer Rattler in my opinion. He is set up to fail after trading away Shaheed and Penning. The Saints will essentially be without both starting tackles with the loss of Penning and now RT Taliese Fuaga is out this week. They also have four other offensive linemen on IR, and this may be the worst offense in the NFL moving forward.
The Saints are 31st in scoring offense at 15.3 points per game, 29th in total offense at 287.1 yards per game and 30th at 4.9 yards per play. They are 24th in scoring defense at 27.0 points per game, 18th at 333.3 yards per game and 12th at 5.5 yards per play. They are getting outscored by 11.7 points per game and outgained by 50 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.
The Panthers are fully healthy on offense with the exception of RG. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games with Bryce Young at QB. He has underrated weapons at receiver and a two-headed monster at RB in Dowdle and Hubbard. This is one of the most underrated offenses in the NFL.
The Panthers also have a vastly improved defense ranking 13th in total defense this season at 316.6 yards per game. They shut out the Falcons, held the Jets to 6 and held the Packers to 13 points. They are also fully healthy on defense, and overall one of the most healthy teams in the NFL right now which is key this late in the season.
The Panthers are 3-1 SU & 3-1 TS at home this season playing much better on their home turf. Their lone loss was with Andy Dalton at QB to a pissed off Buffalo Bills team coming off their bye week and two consecutive losses. Dalton was playing with a broken thumb to boot.
Adding to the Saints' fatigue is the fact that their defense was on the field for 44 minutes agains the Rams. They only possessed the ball for 16 minutes and 40 plays. Teams coming off a game with 40 offensive plays or fewer have gone 4-11 SU since 2014, including 1-10 SU as underdogs. The Saints are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog of 14 points or less. Bet the Panthers Sunday.
15* Falcons/Colts NFL Berlin Early ANNIHILATOR on Indianapolis -6
I love the spot for the Indianapolis Colts. They are coming off a humbling, misleading loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in which they gave the game away by committing six turnovers. They still only lost by 7 despite the 6 turnovers, a sign of a great team. They outgained the Steelers 368 to 225, or by 143 total yards. It was a very fluky result.
The Colts are very close to being undefeated this season. Their other loss to the Rams was fluky as well as they had two TD's overturned, one by penalty and one by dropping the ball before the end zone. The Rams still needed a game-winning TD in the final two minutes to win by 7 in Los Angeles. The Colts are winning by blowout week after week, outscoring opponents by 12.1 points per game on the season. They will get back to their dominant selves this week in Berlin.
The Colts are a complete team other than injuries in their secondary. Well, they addressed that matter by trading two first-round picks for CB Sauce Gardner, who is easily a Top 2 CB in the league right alongside Patrick Surtain of the Broncos. Gardner will come in handy particularly in this game matching up with Drake London of the Falcons. Stop London and you stop this Atlanta passing attack as they are so reliant on him.
The Falcons are a mess right now. They have lost three in a row with a 10-point loss at San Francisco, a 24-point home loss to Miami and a 1-point road loss at New England. They trailed the Patriots by 14 points last week before a flurry of one-handed catches by London got them back in it. They missed the potential tying extra point and since cut their kicker. It's the type of loss that can beat a team twice.
The Falcons are decimated by injuries along their offensive line right now. They are without three starters in RT Kaleb McGary, his replacement in Storm Norton, and LG Matthew Bergeron. Another starter in Chris Linsdtrom is questionable. Michael Penix does not deal well with pressure, and he will be under duress all game. Penix is actually 0-5 SU in outdoor games in his career as well. That includes the loss to New England, the 10-point loss to the 49ers and the 30-point loss to the Panthers earlier this season.
I love the matchup for the Colts. Both teams rely heavily on their running game with the Jonathan Stewart for the Colts and Bijon Robinson and Tyler Algier for the Falcons. The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in the league, while the Falcons have one of the worst in their current state. The Falcons rank 23rd allowing 124.4 rushing yards per game and 20th at 4.4 per carry. The Colts rank 4th allowing just 87 rushing yards per game and 11th at 4.0 per carry.
Favorites are 39-14-1 SU & 34-20 ATS in International games, including 29-9-1 SU & 24-15 ATS as a favorite of a FG or more. Teams coming off a SU loss as a favorite before an International game are 15-9 ATS, including 2-0 ATS this season. Bet the Colts Sunday morning in Berlin.
15* Rams/49ers NFC West ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -3.5
I love the spot for the Los Angeles Rams this week. They had their bye two weeks ago and returned from it with a 34-10 dismantling of the New Orleans Saints. They outgained the Saints 438 to 224, or by 214 yards. They are one of the healthiest teams in the NFL right now, and they are ready for revenge on the 49ers from a fluky 26-23 (OT) loss in their first meeting on October 2nd. They fumbled that game away going in for the winning score late. They racked up 456 yards on the 49ers and should have won.
The 49ers are a tired, injury-ravaged team right now that just won't be able to put up much of a fight in the rematch. They will be playing for a 10th consecutive week here as they have yet to have their bye week. They are without Brock Purdy, Rickey Pearsall, Brandon Aiyuk and could be without G Ben Bartch on offense. They are without Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Yetur Gross-Matos and have another four starters listed as questionable on defense. Their front seven in particular is in shambles. The 49ers rank dead last in pressure rate and 2nd-to-last in sacks since losing Bosa.
The fatigue fact is amplified after consecutive long road trips to Houston in a 26-15 loss and New York in a 34-24 win over the equally injury-ravaged Giants. They had to fly across country and won't have had much time to prepare for the Rams, who were at home last week and will have a short trip to Santa Clara for this one.
The Rams are legit one of the best teams in the NFL as they are 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS this season and even their two losses were fluky. One was that loss to the 49ers where they had 456 yards and fumbled it away, and the other was a blown 26-7 lead on the road to the Eagles where they had their game-winning FG blocked at the buzzer.
The Rams have rebounded nicely from that loss to the 49ers going 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with a 14-point win at Baltimore, a 28-point win at Jacksonville and a 24-point home win over the Saints. You could make the argument the Rams are the best team in the NFL when you look at the numbers. They are 7th in total offense at 369.9 yards per game and 9th at 6.0 yards per play, while ranking 10th in total defense at 302.9 yards per game and 5th at 5.0 yards per play. They are outgaining opponents by 67 yards per game and 1.0 yards per play.
The 49ers have been winning with smoke and mirrors as they are actually getting outgained by 0.1 yards per play. Four of their six wins came by 5 points or fewer, while each of their last two losses came by double-digits to Houston and Tampa Bay. Their luck runs out this week against a Rams team that wants it more and is the much more rested, healthy and better team.
The 49ers are 1-14 ATS in their last 15 games following a win. The Rams are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 division games when playing in the 2nd meeting of the season on the road. Bet the Rams Sunday.
20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Baltimore Ravens -3.5
The Ravens released their injury report this week and nobody was on it. The go from one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL to the healthiest, and now I have them as the best team in the NFL in their current state. I've backed them with success the last two weeks since returning from their bye healthy, and I'm not about to jump off them now.
Even without Lamar Jackson the Ravens blasted the Bears 30-16 at home two weeks ago off their bye. They got Jackson back on Thursday in their next game, and he led them to a 28-6 win over the Dolphins while throwing 4 TD passes with only 5 incompletions. Jackson is completing 72.9% of his passes with a 14-to-1 TD/INT ratio on the season. Now the Ravens are on extra rest here after playing last Thursday and primed for a big effort.
The Minnesota Vikings are in the ultimate letdown spot. They shocked the Lions 27-24 as 9.5-point road underdogs last week. It was a fluky result as the Vikings managed just 258 total yards and were outgained by 60 yards by the Lions. JJ McCarthy is not their savior. He went 14-of-25 passing for 143 yards, while rushing for just 12 yards on 9 carries in the win. McCarthy isn't going to be able to match Jackson score for score in this one as it's a huge mismatch at the QB position.
Jackson thrives against the blitz, and the Vikings are one of the most blitz-happy teams in the NFL with Brian Flores as their coordinator. The Vikings have really been leaking oil defensively in recent weeks against other QB's like Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert that own the blitz. They allowed 28 points and 316 passing yards to the Eagles and 37 points and 419 total yards to the Chargers before giving up 24 points to the Lions, who suffered multiple O-Line injuries throughout that game that disrupted their rhythm. The Ravens have one of the best O-Lines in the NFL.
Lamar Jackson is 37-8 SU when facing a head coach for the first time like he will be Kevin O'Connell this week. Jackson is 24-3 SU against the NFC as a starting QB for the Ravens. The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after facing the Lions under O'Connell, failing to cover the spread by an average of 11.9 points per game. Teams playing the 2nd of back-to-back road games are 30-12 SU & 29-13 ATS since 2018. Bet the Ravens Sunday.
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