Jack Jones of BetFirm Free Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Philadelphia Phillies +137 

This series against Atlanta is Philadelphia’s final stand.  The Phillies are 5.5 games back of the Braves in the NL East and really need to sweep this series.  It starts with Game 1 tonight, and I like the value we are getting with them are road underdogs here. 

Vince Velasquez has actually been at his best on the road this season.  He has posted a 3.64 ERA and 1.298 WHIP in his 14 road starts this year.  Velasquz gave up just one earned run in his last start against the Braves this season. 

Kevin Gausman has been a mediocre starter this year in his time with the Orioles and Braves.  He is 10-10 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.300 WHIP in 29 starts, including 1-1 with a 6.10 ERA in his last two starts.  Gausman is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in one career start against the Phillies.  That came back on July 12th as he allowed 5 earned runs and 13 base runners in 5 innings of a 5-4 loss. 

The Braves have had zero home-field advantage here down the stretch.  They are just 5-14 in their last 19 home games.  Atlanta is 3-12 in its last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Phillies Thursday.

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15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Tampa Bay Rays -131 

The Rays just keep on winning and I’m going to ride them again today.  They are 23-5 in their last 28 games overall.  They are trying to chase down the A’s for the final wild card spot in the American League in the final two weeks of the season.  They are playing like a very hungry team right now. 

Ryan Stanek has posted a 2.50 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in his 26 starts this season for the Rays.  Tampa Bay is 4-0 in Stanek’s four career starts against the Blue Jays, all of which have come in 2018.  He has posted a 0.00 ERA and 0.563 WHIP in those four starts. 

The Toronto Blue Jays are playing for nothing but pride at this point.  Sam Gaviglio has been a disappointment, going 2-8 with a 5.38 ERA and 1.476 WHIP in 21 starts, including 0-2 with a 7.43 ERA and 1.650 WHIP in his last three starts.  Gaviglio is also 1-2 with a 4.61 ERA and 1.391 WHIP in three career starts against Tampa Bay. 

The Rays are 9-1 in their last 10 vs. AL East opponents.  Tampa Bay is 7-1 in its last eight road games.  The Blue Jays are 0-7 in Gaviglio’s last seven starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Tampa Bay is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Rays Thursday.

15* Tulsa/Temple ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Tulsa +7 

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are a vastly improved team this season over a year ago.  They returned 15 starters this year.  It’s a team that went 10-3 in 2016 but just 2-10 in 2017.  I think they’re somewhere in between this year. 

Tulsa beat Central Arkansas in the opener 38-27 as 11.5-point favorites.  But that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Tulsa outgained them by 223 total yards.  Then in Week 2 Tulsa went toe-to-toe with Texas and only lost 21-28 as 22.5-point road underdogs. 

I think the Golden Hurricane are undervalued this week due to their 20-29 home loss to Arkansas State as 2-point favorites last week.  A lot of money came pouring in on Tulsa for that game as they flipped favorites because they opened as dogs.  And now all that money wants nothing to do with them this week.  I like getting a full touchdown with the Golden Hurricane here. 

This Tulsa defense has played two really good offenses in Texas and Arkansas State and have held their own.  This was the weakness of the team last year, but it’s a strength now.  The Golden Hurricane are only allowing 377 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play.  That’s way down from the 529 yards per game and 5.9 per play they allowed last season.  And the offense is better than it has shown to this point. 

I think Temple comes in overvalued due to its shocking 35-14 win at Maryland as 16-point underdogs last week.  But keep in mind this is a Temple team that was upset 17-19 by Villanova as 14.5-point home favorites in Week 1.  They were even outgained by 154 yards in that contest.  They were also upset 29-36 as 4-point home favorites to Buffalo in Week 2 while getting outgained by 72 yards. 

Temple has some serious injury issues coming into this one.  They are without starting DL Dana Levine.  Starting QB Frank Nutile, DL Quincy Roche, K Aaron Boumerhi, TE Kenny Yeboah, and LT James McHale are all listed as questionable for this game.  That’s six potential starters they could be without for this game.  Meanwhile, Tulsa is extremely healthy with only two players on the injury list, and only one is a starter in LB Robert Revels III who is questionable. 

Philip Montgomery is 12-3 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Tulsa.  Montgomery is 10-1 ATS after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers as the coach of Tulsa.  Montgomery is a perfect 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed three or more turnovers as the coach of Tulsa.  The Golden Hurricane have committed eight turnovers this season thus far otherwise they could easily be 3-0.  Don’t be surprised if they pull the upset in this game tonight.  Take Tulsa Thursday. 

20* Jets/Browns AFC Thursday No-Brainer on Cleveland -3 

The Cleveland Browns have held their own against two of the best teams in the NFL.  They tied the Steelers in overtime in Week 1, and they should have beaten the Saints in Week 2 in an 18-21 loss.  Kicker Zane Gonzalez missed two field goals and two extra points in that defeat last week, which was the difference. 

I’ve been most impressed with what the Browns have been able to do defensively.  Holding both the Steelers and the Saints to 21 points each is no small feat.  They legitimately have one of the best defenses in the NFL, and now they will be up against the worst offense they’ve faced yet in the New York Jets this week. 

They Jets opened their season with a misleading 48-17 win over the Lions.  But that was a misleading result.  For starters, their defensive players were tipped off to all of Matthew Stafford’s signals, which was a huge advantage.  They forced five turnovers as a result and got defensive and special teams touchdowns in the win.  The Jets came back last week and laid an egg 12-20 at home to the Dolphins. 

So, the Jets have played two of the worst teams in the NFL in the Lions and Dolphins, while the Browns have played two of the best teams in the NFL in the Steelers and Saints.  That preparation against that level of competition will make this seem like a much easier game for the Browns here.  And they are starved for a win and it will be a rowdy atmosphere Thursday night in Cleveland as the fans pack the stands in hopes of ending this losing streak.

Schedule makers have done the Jets no favors here.  They played on Monday Night Football in Week 1.  And now have to play on Thursday in Week 3.  That means they will be playing their 3rd game in 11 days, which is about as tough a situation as there is in the NFL.  Don't be surprised if they are gassed by the second half of this one.

These teams played last year with the Jets winning 17-14 in Cleveland.  That also puts the Browns in revenge mode.  Plus, the Browns dominated that game, outgaining the Jets 419 to 212, or by 207 total yards.  But they lost the turnover battle 3-1.  Another lopsided box score this week will actually lead to a Browns’ victory because they are taking care of the football and getting turnovers this year.  They have a +6 turnover differential through two games. 

Todd Bowles is 0-7 ATS in road games off a division game as the coach of the Jets.  New York is losing in this spot by 12.7 points per game.  This is a 100% never lost system that we’ll back here tonight.  Bet the Browns Thursday.