Jack Jones of BetFirm Free Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Northern Iowa -6 

The Northern Iowa Panthers keep flying under the radar this season.  This is a loaded UNI team that finished strong in the second half of the season last year and nearly won the MVC Championship Game.  They returned four starters and almost everyone from that squad. 

The Panthers have opened 9-1 SU & 7-1 ATS this season.  Their only loss came on the road at West Virginia 55-60 as 6.5-point underdogs.  They actually had a double-digit lead in that game before giving it up late in the final seconds.  And they just went on the road and won outright as 9.5-point dogs at Colorado, which is ranked No. 24 in the country. 

Now Northern Iowa faces a bad Grand Canyon team that has been overvalued all season.  The Antelopes are just 4-7 SU & 3-7 ATS this season.  They lost at home to Davenport by 9 and at home to IUPU Fort Wayne by 11, so Northern Iowa should have no problem making easy work of them tonight.  Their only four wins have come against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Mount St. Mary’s, Montana State and Illinois State.  Six of their seven losses have come by 9 points or more. 

The Antelopes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs.  The Panthers are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team that wins less than 40% of their games.  The Panthers want revenge from a home loss to Grand Canyon last year.  Bet Northern Iowa Thursday.

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20* Jets/Ravens AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on New York +17 

The Baltimore Ravens are the most public team in the NFL right now due to their nine-game winning streak and their 11-2 record, which is the best in the AFC.  This line has gotten out of control as a result, and there’s clearly value on the Jets catching more than two touchdowns tonight. 

The Ravens are coming off two very physical games against San Francisco and Buffalo.  They needed a last-second field goal to beat the 49ers at home, and they were fortunate to cover by getting a red zone stand in the closing seconds of a 24-17 win over the Bills as 6.5-point favorites last week. 

I think this is a letdown spot for the Ravens now.  Not to mention they will be without two starting offensive linemen in C Matt Skura and T Ronnie Stanley.  Leading receiver Mark Andrews is battling a knee injury.  QB Lamar Jackson just showed up on the injury report this week with a quad injury, so I think the Ravens will be careful with him.  And without Jackson at 100% and the whole playbook available, it will be tough for the Ravens to cover this massive spread. 

I like the fact that the Ravens know they can lose this game and still be in 1st place in the AFC.  Knowing they have that in their hip pocket will make them not be as motivated as they have been up to this point to put themselves in this enviable position.  Meanwhile, the Jets will be treating this game like their Super Bowl with the chance to go toe-to-toe with the top team in the AFC. 

It’s not like the Jets are the worst team in the NFL, which is what this line basically indicates.  The Jets are actually 4-1 SU in their last five games overall.  I know it hasn’t come against the greatest competition, but this team is still battling hard and trying to win every game.  Sam Darnold has found a connection with Robby Anderson on offense, and the defense continues playing at a very high level. 

The key to stopping the Ravens is stopping the run, and that makes this an excellent matchup for the Jets.  New York ranks 2nd in the NFL against the run, giving up just 78.8 rushing yards per game.  More importantly, the Jets rank 1st in the league in giving up just 3.0 yards per carry.  They have far and away the best rushing defense in the NFL when you look at the numbers as a whole. 

Baltimore is 1-9 ATS in home games vs. teams that commit 60-plus penalty yards per game over the last three seasons.  The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in home games after covering the spread in four or five of their last six games over the past three seasons.  Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Ravens are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.  Bet the Jets Thursday. 

20* Iowa/Iowa State ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Iowa State -4 

The Iowa State Cyclones should be bigger favorites here against the Iowa Hawkeyes.  Hilton Magic is for real, and the Cyclones are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS inside Hilton Coliseum this season, winning by 22.0 points per game on average.  They just beat a ranked Seton Hall team 76-66 at home, and now they’ll make easy work of this unranked Hawkeyes squad. 

I’ve just seen too many poor performances from the Hawkeyes this season to trust them on the road here.  Iowa lost by 15 at home to DePaul as 9.5-point favorites.  They were beaten by 10 by San Diego State on a neutral in Las Vegas.  And they gave up 103 points to Michigan two games ago, which was the most points scored by the Wolverines in a Big Ten game since 1998. 

Hilton Coliseum has been a house of horrors for the Hawkeyes.  Indeed, Iowa hasn’t won at Hilton Coliseum since 2003.  The Cyclones have won eight straight home meetings with the Hawkeyes.  They want revenge from a bad road loss to Iowa last year, and they should get that revenge with a win and cover at home tonight. 

The Hawkeyes are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 road games.  Iowa is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a home favorite.  The Cyclones are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games after going under the total in their previous game.  Steve Prohm is 9-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK as the coach of Iowa State, and 14-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points in all games he has coached.  Take Iowa State Thursday. 

15* Blazers/Nuggets TNT Late-Night BAILOUT on Denver -6 

The Denver Nuggets are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost five of their last six coming in and it’s understandable considering they played five of their last six on the road.  Now they are back in the Pepsi Center where they have one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA. 

We know we’re going to get a big effort from the Nuggets here, which is a big factor when handicapping the NBA.  The Nuggets had the best home record in the NBA last season and are 8-3 at home this year.  They should be able to handle the Portland Trail Blazers tonight. 

The Blazers have been hit hard by injuries this season as they remain without Jusuf Nurkic, Zach Collins and Rodney Hood.  Injuries prompted them to sign Carmelo Anthony.  The Blazers are just 10-15 this season, including 5-9 on the road.  They are nowhere near as good as they were last season when they made a deep run in the playoffs. 

Plays against underdogs (Portland) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing against a team with a winning record are 71-35 (67%) ATS since 1996.  The Blazers are 1-6-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team that wins more than 60% of their games.  Portland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games.  Denver is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  Bet the Nuggets Thursday. 

15* NBA Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Detroit Pistons +6 

The Dallas Mavericks are starting to get way too much respect from oddsmakers after going 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  Now they’re being asked to go on the road and lay 6 points to a solid Detroit Pistons team that is as healthy as they have been all season now. 

The Pistons are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their only loss coming to arguably the best team in the NBA in the Milwaukee Bucks.  They beat San Antonio by 34 at home and Cleveland by 33 on the road.  They also upset Indiana by 7 at home and won at New Orleans.  I really like the way this team is playing right now. 

The Pistons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and have consistently had one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA over the past few seasons.  The Mavericks are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games playing on three or more days’ rest.  That break actually wasn’t good for them as it halted the momentum they had. 

The Pistons are 15-4 ATS in home games after having won three of their last four games over the past three seasons.  They are winning by 11.2 points per game in this spot.  Roll with the Pistons Thursday.