Jack Jones of BetFirm Free Sports Picks & Handicapper Review

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+120)

The Toronto Blue Jays are still playing for playoff positioning.  They have crushed the Red Sox 9-0 and 10-0 in the first two games of this series, respectively.  It should be more of the same today due to their advantage on the mound and the Red Sox lack of motivation, which has them just 3-8 in their last 11 games overall.

Kevin Gausman is 12-10 with a 3.30 ERA and 1.235 WHIP in 30 starts this season.  I don't expect him to fully shut down the Red Sox, but I do expect him to be good enough to help the Blue Jays win this game by two runs or more.  Gausman is 3-0 with a 2.32 ERA in his last five starts against Boston, allowing just 8 earned runs in 31 innings.  All five starts have come this season.

Michael Wacha allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against the Orioles.  Wacha is 1-1 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts against the Blue Jays, allowing 11 earned runs in 17 innings.

Boston is 1-10 after scoring one run or fewer in a division loss this season and losing by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  The Red Sox are 8-20 in their last 28 road games.  Toronto is 39-18 in its last 57 games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Blue Jays are 45-17 in their last 62 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Toronto is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings.  Roll with the Blue Jays on the Run Line Sunday.

20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Red Sox/Blue Jays OVER 7.5

The Toronto Blue Jays can cover this total on their own Sunday.  They won 9-0 in Game 1 and 10-0 in Game 2 against the Boston Red Sox.  Look for them to crush Michael Wacha in this one as well.

Wacha allowed 6 earned runs and 3 homers in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against the Orioles.  Wacha is 1-1 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts against the Blue Jays, allowing 11 earned runs in 17 innings.  I don't expect the Red Sox to get shut out again today, so they will help contribute to this total as well.

The OVER is 7-1 in Red Sox last eight games following a loss.  The OVER is 5-0 in Red Sox last five road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The OVER is 10-4-1 in Blue Jays last 15 games overall.  The OVER is 5-1 in the last six meetings.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Toronto.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Browns/Falcons OVER 47

These are two of the best offenses in the NFL and two of the worst defenses in the league squaring off Sunday.  Both teams are 3-0 OVER the total this season because of that fact.  It will be more of the same Sunday as these offenses do whatever they want against these defenses.

Atlanta is averaging 26.7 points per game this season behind Marcus Mariota, who has proven to be one of the most improved quarterbacks in the NFL.  He is completing 63.3% of his passes and averaging 8.1 yards per attempt, while also rushing for 92 yards and a pair of scores.  They have a balanced attack and are averaging 5.9 yards per play, which ranks 9th in the NFL.  And it has come against some stiff competition as the Rams and Saints have two of the better defenses in the league.

Don't look now but Jacoby Brissett is also one of the most improved quarterbacks in the league.  He is quickly forming a chemistry with Amari Cooper.  The Browns are scoring 28.3 points per game and averaging 378.7 yards per game, ranking 5th in total offense this season.  The Browns are rushing for 191 yards per game and 5.0 per carry behind a great offensive line, and the two-headed monster of Chubb and Hunt at running back.

The Browns should be able to run wild on this Falcons defense, which is allowing 27.0 points per game, 380.7 yards per game and 6.0 yards per play, which ranks 25th in the NFL.  The Falcons are allowing 4.8 yards per carry on the ground and haven't really faced a good rushing attack yet.  They will really get exposed by Cleveland, and Brissett should have plenty of big play opportunities off the play-action.

The Browns were expected to have a good defense this season, but that just hasn't been the case.  They rank 18th in the NFL in giving up 5.6 yards per play this season.  They are also giving up 24.0 points per game despite playing three terrible offenses in the Jets, Panthers and Steelers.  This will be the best offense they have faced yet.

The Browns have some serious concerns in the injury department on defense.  They could be without their top two pass rushers in Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney, which would make the task of trying to coral Mariota that much more difficult.  They are allowing 6.9 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 20th in the NFL.  

Again, that is very concerning since that has come against Flacco, Mayfield and Trubisky.  And Garrett has actually been on the field for all of it.  They will be in a world of hurt if he doesn't play, and he's currently doubtful.  Both offenses will have their way in this one.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

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15* NFL Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Houston Texans +5.5

The Los Angeles Chargers are getting treated like the talented team they were coming into the season rather than the injury-ravaged team they are currently.  No team has lost more star players to injury than the Chargers, and they could be without even more this week against the Houston Texans.

I took advantage and cashed in the Jaguars in a 38-10 victory over the Chargers as 7-point underdogs last week.  And I'll gladly fade the Chargers again this week.  They lost their best offensive lineman in T Slater to a torn bicep last week.  They lost LB Bosa to a groin injury, and he'll be out this week.  They were already without WR Keenan Allen, C Linsley and CB Jackson, and all three are questionable this week.  As is QB Justin Herbert, who is playing through torn rib cartilage and isn't as effective.

The Texans have quietly gone 2-0-1 ATS this season and are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall dating back to last season.  The betting public wants nothing to do with this team because they are considered the worst team in the NFL, but they are competitive and will continue to battle.  All three of their games have been decided by one score this season.  If the Chargers win, they're going to have a hard time covering this inflated number in the process.

I think RB Dameon Pierce and this Houston rushing attack will have success against this soft Chargers run defense.  The Chargers are allowing 4.6 yards per carry this season, and they have faced two poor rushing teams in the Raiders and Chiefs.  They gave up 151 yards on the ground to the Jaguars last week.  Houston has been good against the pass, allowing 208 passing yards per game and 6.4 per attempt, so they match up well with the Chargers and their pass-heavy attack.

Plays against favorites (LA Chargers) - in a game involving two teams that are both outrushed by 40-plus yards per game, after gaining 75 or fewer rushing yards last game are 41-14 (74.5%) ATS since 1983.  Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five games vs. AFC opponents.  Take the Texans Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Carolina Panthers ML -120

The Arizona Cardinals are broken.  They have played 11 poor quarters of football and one good one, which is the only reason they aren't 0-3.  They erased a 23-7 deficit in the 4th quarter to beat the Raiders 29-23 (OT), a game that was gifted to them by the refs.  The Raiders are 0-3 on the season.  They other losses came 21-44 at home to Kansas City, which hasn't looked good since that win.  And they lost 20-12 at home to the Rams, who were blown out 41-7 by the Bills and nearly lost to the Falcons as a double-digit favorite.

Injuries are really hurting the Cardinals.  DeAndre Hopkins is out, AJ Green is doubtful and Rondale Moore is questionable, which are Kyler Murray's three biggest weapons on offense.  He is having to try to do too much, and his task gets even tougher this week against a very good Carolina Panthers defense.  The Panthers are only allowing 19.7 points per game and holding opponents to 0.6 yards per play less than their season averages.

Conversely, Carolina could easily be 3-0.  They lost on a 58-yard FG at the buzzer to the Browns in Week 1.  They lost by 3 to the Giants in Week 2 despite outgaining them 5.1 to 3.8 yards per play.  And last week they got in the win column with a 22-14 home victory over the New Orleans Saints in a game they led 13-0 entering the 4th quarter and controlled throughout.

The Panthers clearly have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  The Cardinals are getting gashed defensively, allowing 29.0 points per game 387.7 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.  They are allowing 0.8 yards per play more than their opponents average on the season.  They are broken on both sides of the football, while the Panthers are only struggling on offense.  This line should be much closer to Carolina -3 instead of a PK.

The Panthers own the Cardinals, going 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings with all six wins by double-digits!  That includes a 34-10 upset road win last season.  The home team is also 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Roll with the Panthers Sunday.

15* Vikings/Saints NFL London Early ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota ML -140

The New Orleans Saints looked like a sleeper coming into the season to win the NFC South.  Unfortunately, injuries have not gone their way in the early going.  I faded them last week with the Panthers, and I'm fading them again this week with the Vikings for a number of the same reasons.

QB Jameis Winston has a broken back, and he has been the catalyst as to why the Saints have turned the ball over 8 times the last two weeks in losing to the Bucs and Panthers while averaging just 12 points per game.  Alvin Kamara is banged up and questionable, and two of the top receivers are questionable in Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry after both left the game against Panthers last week with foot injuries.  All told, the Saints have 23 players on the injury report.

The Vikings have remained remarkably healthy.  Dalvin Cook is on the injury report with a shoulder injury, but is likely to play as he has played through this injury before.  The drop off to backup Mattison is minimal as we've seen before.  The Vikings only have nine players on the injury report with the only significant ones being Cook and Z'Darius Smith, who are both questionable.  They are remarkably healthy.

The Vikings look like one of the best teams in the NFC.  They beat the Packers 23-7 in the opener.  I know they lost 7-24 to the Eagles in Week 2, but the Vikings had every chance to get back in that game in the second half but kept failing in the red zone.  And the Eagles appear to be the best team in the NFC.  They came back with a 28-24 win over Detroit last week.

I trust the healthy Vikings and Kirk Cousins more than Jameis Winston and this banged up Saints squad.  Winston is like Carson Wentz in that he can't be trusted to hold onto the football.  New Orleans is a mash unit right now.  Bet the Vikings Sunday.

20* NFL DOG OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (-130)

The Jacksonville Jaguars are for real, but the betting public and thus the oddsmakers don't want to accept it.  Here we are again catching a touchdown with the Jaguars in Week 4 after catching a touchdown with them against the Chargers last week.

That's because the consensus is that everyone knows the Eagles are for real, but that's not the consensus with the Jaguars.  Jacksonville could easily be 3-0 as they blew a late lead to Washington on the road in the first game under Doug Pederson.  They have been dominant in both games since, beating the Colts 24-0 at home and the Chargers 38-10 on the road despite being underdogs in both games.  They covered the spread by a combined 61.5 points in those two games.

Trevor Lawrence has made that leap in Year 2 that you hope to see from 1st-round quarterbacks.  Pederson is a big reason why.  Remember, he won a Super Bowl with Nick Foles in Philadelphia, and now he'll have his team extra amped up to face his former squad after a not so pleasant exit.  Lawrence is completing 69.4% of his passes for 772 yards with a 6-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games.  James Robinson and Travis Etienne have combined for 344 rushing yards in three games behind a vastly improved offensive line.  Pederson is working his magic with this offense.

Defensively, the Jaguars have elite talent that is starting to finally live up to their potential this season.  They are allowing just 12.7 points per game, 306.7 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play, ranking 12th in total defense.  They have great team speed defensively, which makes them match up as well with the Eagles' speed as anyone has yet this season.  I think the Eagles are feeling 'fat and happy' after their 3-0 start, while the Jaguars are the more more motivated team to win one for their head coach this week.

Plays against favorites (Philadelphia) - outgaining their opponent by 0.75 or more yards per play, after averaging 400 yards per game or more offensively in their last three games are 52-12 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Jacksonville) - after allowing 99 or fewer rushing yards in three consecutive games are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

20* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Dallas Cowboys -3

Cooper Rush is now 3-0 as a starter for the Cowboys.  He beat the Vikings on the road last year, which is no small feat.  He beat the Bengals in Week 2.  And he just beat the Giants on the road in Week 3.  Nobody wants to admit it, but Rush isn't that big of a downgrade from Dak Prescott.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, they are loaded everywhere else, which makes it possible to continue to win games without Dak.  The Cowboys will have the best unit on the field, which is their defense.  They are allowing just 17.3 points per game and 312.3 yards per game through three games.

Micah Parsons is quickly becoming one of the best defenders in the NFL.  The Cowboys sacked Daniel Jones 5 times last week and lead the league in sacks.  That's bad news for Carson Wentz and the Commanders.  Wentz was sacked 9 times last week by the Eagles in their 24-8 home loss.

The Commanders managed just 50 total yards in the first three quarters of that game.  They couldn't do anything until garbage time.  Wentz is the least trust-worthy QB in the entire NFL in my opinion.  He's right up there with Jameis Winston, except a lot less talented.  And Wentz almost has no chance playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL.

This Washington defense isn't any good, either.  The Commanders are allowing 27.3 points per game, 402.7 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play.  They rank 27th in total defense and 28th in yards per play on defense.  There's just not a lot to like about this Commanders team.

This line suggests that these are almost even teams when you factor in home-field advantage, and I just don't see it that way.  The Cowboys have all the advantages in this game, especially at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football, which is most important.  Wentz will be under duress all game and is sure to make another bonehead mistake or two, which is something he just has a knack for doing.

The Cowboys own this division, going 21-7 ATS in their last 28 vs. NFC East opponents, including 7-0 ATS in their last seven against division foes.  Dallas is 18-7 ATS In its last 25 games overall.  The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a losing record.  Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Dallas.  Bet the Cowboys Sunday.