Jack Jones of BetFirm Daily Free Sports Picks & Predictions

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cubs/Marlins OVER 8

The Cubs are red hot at the plate scoring 64 runs in their last eight games for an average of 8.0 runs per game.  The Cubs have gone 10-4 OVER in their last 14 games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in 10 of those 14 games.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving the Cubs right now.

The Miami Marlins are also heating up at the plate scoring 3 runs or more in six of their last seven games.  They have gone 5-3 OVER in their last eight games overall finishing with 8 or more combined runs in seven of those eight.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving the Marlins right now as well.

Both teams will go with relievers turned starters and neither will go deep into this game.  Javier Assad is 4-1 with a 4.66 ERA on the road this season allowing 24 earned runs and 9 homers in 46 1/3 innings.  Ryan Gusto is 1-3 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 14 starts and five relief appearances for the Marlins this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas State +29.5

Texas State is one of the better Group of 6 programs in the country.  GJ Kinne enters his 4th season in San Marcos and is one of the better young head coaches in the country.  He has led the Bobcats to bowl games in each of his first three seasons, and honestly it could have been a lot better as they have had some very poor luck in close games the last two seasons in particular.

There was a stretch last season where the Bobcats lost three straight heartbreaks by 1 to Arkansas State, and in OT to both Troy and Marshall.  But they finished strong blowing out their final four opponents by 31, 27, 23 and 17 points.  And they carry that momentum with them into 2026 with 11 returning starters, which is a big number for a Group of 6 program in today's college football.

The offense in particular will be one of the best in the country after averaging 36.5 points per game and 473 yards per game last season.  Seven starters are back on offense including QB Brad Jackson, who threw for 3,224 yards with a 21-to-7 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 744 yards and a whopping 17 TD as a freshman last season.  Joining him will be a pair of 1,000-yard receivers from last season in Beau Sparks (1,200 yards, 10 TD) and Chris Dawn (1,007 yards, 4 TD).  The O-Line is anchored by returning starters in LT Sully Burns and C Justin DeLeon.

Texas State returns three of hits top five tacklers on defense in FS Nolan, LB Jones and LB Cooks.  The Bobcats add in a ton of quality transfers on D and should have one of the best defenses of the Kinne era.  But Texas State is going to keep coming on offense for four quarters in this game, and getting +29.5 with this offense is too much.

No question Texas has the talent again to be a national title contender.  The Longhorns have 11 starters back and add in some nice transfers.  But I think Arch Manning hasn't lived up to the hype and he may never live up to it.  Texas only averaged 30.5 points and 388 yards per game last season offensively.  That includes 138 rushing yards per game despite having a dual-threat QB.  The Longhorns leave a lot to be desired on offense, which makes it tough for them to get margin.

We saw that last season when the Longhorns failed to cover as 37-point favorites against San Jose State at home and as 40-point favorites against UTEP at home.  Texas State is night and day better than both of those programs.  Another key factor here is Texas has a huge game with Ohio State on deck and may call off the dogs in the 2H if necessary.  But I think they will be in more of a dog fight than they bargained for in Week 1.  Bet Texas State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on SEMO/Iowa State UNDER 53.5

The Iowa State Cyclones hired Jimmy Rogers from Washington State.  The Cougars ranked 125th in tempo last season as Rogers played slow to try and give his team the best chance to win knowing he was under-manned.  The result was a 9-3 UNDER record in the regular season and 49 or fewer combined points in 10 of those 12 games.  This total of 53.5 is too high today.

Rogers will have to do the same thing at Iowa State to try and make the Cyclones competitive.  His Washington State team had an elite defense allowing 20.2 points per game.  He brought his defensive coordinator with him that served under him at Washington State and also South Dakota State prior in Jesse Bobbit.  He also added offensive coordinator Tyler Roehl, who ran a run-heavy scheme at North Dakota State.

The Cyclones lose all 22 starters from last season as everyone transferred with Matt Campbell to Penn State.  I like some of the talent Rogers brought in defensively and he will have a good defense this season and everywhere he goes.  But the offense is a problem outside B Jaylen Raynor, the dual-threat Arkansas State transfer.  But it's not like the Cyclones are going to crush it offensively at all this season, including against FCS opponent SE Missouri State in Week 1.

SEMO is coming off a 23-21 upset win at Indiana State in Week 0 for just 44 combined points.  They managed just 327 total yards in the wind including 53 rushing on 30 carries.  They held the Sycamores to 346 yards as well.  I see Iowa State coming close to shutting out SEMO, which will pave the way to us easily cashing this UNDER 53.5 ticket.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Marshall +24.5

Marshall will be one of the better Group of 6 teams in the country this season.  Tony Gibson enters his 2nd year at Marshall and did a good job of getting the Thundering Herd on the verge of a bowl game in his first season after Charlie Huff left for Southern Miss and took all his players with him.

Marshall went 5-7 last season with four losses by 4 points or less, so they were really close to being a 9-3 team.  They have nine starters back from that team which is actually quite a few for a Group of 6 team in today's college football.

The offense in particular is in good hands with the emergence of QB Carlos Del Rio-Wilson last season.  He completed 66.8% of his passes for 2,043 yards with a 17-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  He also rushed for 661 yards and 6 TD as one of the better dual-threats in the country.  He has three of his top four receivers back.  Del Rio-Wilson was a 3rd-stringer coming into the season last year and now he is their senior leader and a voice everyone can get behind.

The defense will be improved despite just three of the top 10 tacklers returning.  They have their sack leader in DE Braydin Ward back, and three other starters return in LB Gilmore, NB Pierre-Louis and SS Smith.  With those four back leading the way, this will be an improved defense to go with their already explosive offense that averaged 30.8 points per game last season.

Penn State has high expectations to live up to with Matt Campbell replacing James Franklin.  I always felt Campbell was better building smaller programs than he is going to be with all the headlines that come with coaching a program of Penn State's caliber.  He is good at getting the most our of lesser talent.  But time will tell how he does when he has more talent at his disposal.

In the intermediate, Campbell is relying on a lot of former Iowa State players to be great at Penn State.  And that's just not the type of talent Penn State is used to, so I think there will be some growing pains until he does actually get more talent to compete in the Big Ten.  The Nittany Lions only have five starters back from last year's team.  He signed 39 transfers with most from Iowa State.

QB Rocco Becht is coming off shoulder surgery.  RB Carson Hansen is not a big-time RB by any means but will be their starter.  It's basically an offense with Becht that only averaged 27.4 points per game last season.  The defense will likely take a step back too with Campbell relying on so many transfers.  They may be fine long-term, but in Week 1 they should not be laying 24.5 points to Marshall with all their question marks.  Bet Marshall Saturday.