Jim Feist Handicapper Review & Free Sports Picks

San Diego appears to be the safer play in this Friday contest with San Jose State and they also have the personnel to not just cover the spread,0 but win as well. Toreros teams in recent years have typically been built around steady guard play and a balanced attack, finishing in the low- to mid-70s on the scoreboard while shooting decently from three. They have also, as a general rule, taken good care of the ball, with recent squads posting assist-to-turnover ratios that have prevented offensive stagnation. San Jose State has typically been more boom or bust, with more frequent bouts of offensive inconsistency and more defensive breakdowns both on the perimeter and on the boards. Recent Spartans squads have often struggled to an at-large losing record in MW play and have not been able to hold their ground against the three-point shot or keep opponents off the offensive glass, both of which should favor San Diego.

I expect that San Diego’s ability to play at their preferred tempo and generate quality looks in the half court will be the difference here. Their guards should be able to create mismatches off the dribble, collapse defenses with drives and kick outs, and generate open looks on the perimeter while their frontcourt players contribute some second-chance points against a San Jose State group that has not been a dominant rebounding team in recent years. The Spartans will hope to make some shots in bursts and get some energy from their home crowd, but if this is a grind-it-out possession by possession affair, San Diego’s cleaner execution and deeper group of reliable scorers will ultimately win out. Coupling San Diego’s recent tendency to play tough, competitive basketball in non-conference games with San Jose State’s penchant for fading late against disciplined opponents and the matchup leads me to believe that the Toreros should be able to get the stops they need and make enough shots to not only cover, but also a good shot at the win on Friday.

Jim's Play: 891. San Diego

Xavier arrives at the Cintas Center with momentum and a slight favorite tag (around -2), a line that reflects both home-court advantage and the Musketeers’ recent consistency at home. Xavier’s offense has shown the ability to generate high-value looks inside and out, and their recent three-game home winning streak suggests they’re comfortable executing in front of their crowd; that comfort matters in a tight rivalry game where possessions and composure decide the outcome.

Cincinnati is no pushover - the Bearcats are 6-2 on the season and coming off a convincing win, and they can flip a game with hot perimeter shooting or by forcing turnovers that create transition points. Still, the matchup tilts toward Xavier when you account for depth and role-player production: Xavier spreads scoring across multiple contributors, which reduces variance late in games and makes them less dependent on one hot hand. That balance is a key reason to expect the Musketeers to not only win but also cover a narrow spread.

Early reports list Gabriel Pozzato out for Xavier and Jalen Haynes out for Cincinnati, but neither absence appears to be a game-changing star loss; rather, they shift rotation minutes and marginally affect rebounding and frontcourt depth. With those statuses accounted for, Xavier’s rotation still looks deeper and better suited to close out tight possessions - a decisive factor when the spread is a single possession.

Xavier’s ability to defend the three and limit offensive rebounds, and Cincinnati’s reliance on a couple of primary scorers to carry late possessions. If Xavier controls the glass and forces contested perimeter shots, the Musketeers should be able to build a late cushion and cover the spread.

Jim's Play: 888. Xavier

On Friday night in Boise, the Mountain West Championship lines up as Boise State’s chance at a third straight league title, with the Broncos (8-4, 6-2 MW) laying about 4.5 points at home against a surging UNLV squad that they already beat 56–31 earlier in the season. Boise’s offense looks well suited to repeat that success: quarterback Maddux Madsen is back from a leg injury with just under 2,000 passing yards and 15 touchdowns and has already torched this Rebels defense once (253 yards and four scores in the October meeting), while workhorse back Dylan Riley has cleared 1,000 rushing yards behind a physical line, supported by Sire Gaines and Malik Sherrod to keep fresh legs pounding away for four quarters.

UNLV counters with one of the most explosive attacks in the Group of 5, led by Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year Anthony Colandrea, who has thrown for over 3,000 yards and added 500-plus on the ground while guiding an offense that averages more than 37 points per game, with Jai’Den Thomas (944 rushing yards, 7.4 per carry, 12 TDs) and Jaden Bradley (834 receiving yards) giving the Rebels big-play options all over the field. Defensively, though, UNLV’s year-long number is still about 28 points allowed per game despite a recent four-game stretch at just 15 per outing, and they now face a Boise unit that already gashed them for multiple chunk plays on “The Blue.”

The Broncos hold a clear edge in field position over the course of the season and boast one of the nation’s stingiest pass defenses at roughly 170 yards allowed per game with 14 interceptions, anchored by playmaking defensive backs Ty Benefield, A’Marion McCoy and Jeremiah Earby, which is exactly the profile you want against an aggressive downfield passer like Colandrea. With Boise State riding momentum from a late-season push to host this game and owning a 12–3 all-time edge in the series, the matchup sets up for their balanced offense and opportunistic secondary to control things late, turning UNLV’s occasional defensive lapses into separation on the scoreboard; look for the Broncos to pull away in the second half and win this one by more than a touchdown, and win and the cover on the Mountain West title stage.

Jim's Play: 110. Boise State (Mountain West Championship Game)

Kennesaw State steps into this late-season matchup against Jacksonville State looking like the more cohesive and battle-tested side, and they have a realistic path to not only winning but also covering. The Owls’ identity has long been built around a physical ground game and a defense that flies to the football. Even as they’ve transitioned levels in recent years, Kennesaw has typically featured a rushing attack that can grind out 200+ yards per game and sustain long drives, wearing down opposing fronts and controlling time of possession. That style is tailor-made for December football, where establishing the line of scrimmage and limiting mistakes often decides outcomes. Jacksonville State, meanwhile, has been more volatile offensively, capable of explosive plays but also prone to inconsistency in the passing game and stretches where their offense stalls if they fall behind the chains.

Defensively, Kennesaw State’s front seven should be the key. If the Owls can win first down and force Jacksonville State into obvious passing situations, their pressure packages and pursuit speed give them an edge, especially against a Gamecocks offense that can get turnover-prone when pressed. Jacksonville State will lean on its athleticism and home-run ability, but if Kennesaw’s defense holds up on the perimeter and keeps missed tackles to a minimum, the Owls’ more methodical, run-first approach should pay off over four quarters. Look for Kennesaw State’s rushing totals, red-zone efficiency, and third-down conversion rate to tilt the box score in their favor. In a game where controlling tempo and limiting mistakes looms large, Kennesaw State’s physicality and consistency make them the pick to win this matchup and cover the number on Friday.

Jim's Play: 103. Kennesaw State  (Conference USA Championship)